密尔沃基-乔·拜登在上周的民主党全国代表大会上，我在电话中向威斯康辛州的代表们承诺决定不去美国旅行因为冠状病毒而接受民主党总统提名，他会尽快回来。
这让来自威斯康星州维罗夸的代表艾琳·福特挠头不已。
她说:“如果他能成功，事情就会有所不同。”“这对地面上的人很重要。”
除了去休斯顿旅行会见乔治·弗洛伊德的家人自20世纪70年代以来，拜登从未离开过大西洋中部地区新型肺炎开始在美国传播。他很少公开露面，包括他上周在民主党全国委员会的接受演讲，都是无关紧要的社会事务，因为他的竞选团队和民主党都在努力“追随科学”，在大流行期间谨慎竞选。
根据对该州十几名民主党官员的采访，尽管这一策略让福特和其他威斯康星州民主党人回忆起2016年的竞选活动——当时希拉里·克林顿没有在选举日之前前往该州——但许多人对这场基本上是虚拟的竞选活动表示了信心。
即使他们悲叹密尔沃基失去了一个全面的会议民主党人表示，他们并不担心拜登在疫情仍令人担忧的情况下，跳出来在地面上四处游荡。
克诺沙民主党主席洛里·霍金斯在谈到民主党候选人的缺席时说:“我不知道有谁为此失眠。”“我们知道他会到这里来，她会到这里来，如果他们能。”
为什么民主党人对威斯康星州充满信心
像拜登竞选一样，威斯康辛民主党也转变成了一个完全虚拟的运作，志愿者使用数百万个电话、电子邮件和短信来联系选民，而不是面对面的活动和敲门。
威斯康辛民主党主席本·威克勒告诉美国广播公司:“当你问人们想要什么时，他们希望这场大流行结束。”“这是一种竞选方式，传达了一个强有力的获胜信息，也是对他当选后要做的事情的承诺。”
民主党人指出了该州4月份总统初选中的强劲数字，当时大流行期间的缺席和面对面投票导致一名自由派候选人在2008年出人意料地以163，000票获胜威斯康辛州最高法院的一场重要竞赛这也在选票上。
温尼贝戈县民主党主席玛西娅·斯蒂尔在接受美国广播公司采访时表示:“我从未见过像今年这样的热情，甚至对希拉里也是如此。”
2020年8月17日，密尔沃基，民主党全国代表大会的第一天，威斯康星中心附近的一个店面上有一个欢迎游客来到这座城市的标志。
但是在一个唐纳德·特朗普总统仅以22，000票击败希拉里·克林顿的州，过去五次总统竞选中有三次都是由不到1%的票数决定的，一些民主党人认为拜登或哈里斯在11月的实地露面会有所不同。
“如果你想赢得威斯康星州，你必须赢得威斯康星州，”瑞安索伦森，谢博伊根市议会成员和拜登全国民主党全国委员会代表，告诉美国广播公司新闻。
他说:“无论是参观一家汽车厂，还是走进一家奶牛场，我认为这样的事情是关键。”“我们必须竭尽全力提供支持。”
实地的共和党人
在总统竞选团队的带领下，共和党人已经回到了威斯康星州和其他关键州的现场竞选。特朗普、副总统迈克·彭斯、埃里克·特朗普和支持特朗普的妇女联盟上周都出现在威斯康辛州，试图对在密尔沃基召开的虚拟民主党全国委员会会议进行反规划。
彭斯在威斯康辛州达连的一次露面中说:“我在来这里的路上听说，乔·拜登已经659天没去过威斯康辛州了。”
上周，该活动还在密尔沃基购买了数字广告牌空间，上面闪烁着“乔在哪里?”在大会期间。
威斯康辛州共和党主席安德鲁·希特在接受美国广播公司采访时说:“他们的虚拟活动实际上是在对唱诗班讲话。”“不到这里来，很难接触到更广泛的公众。”
共和党前国会议员里德·里布尔(Reid Ribble)对特朗普持批评态度，2016年没有投票给他。他表示，符合公共卫生准则的小型户外活动可能有助于拜登赢得可能仍未拿定主意的独立选民的支持——这样做将使他有别于特朗普应对冠状病毒的方式。
他说:“去一两次威斯康辛、密歇根和宾夕法尼亚这样的州，并亲自到场，对他来说并没有什么坏处。”“我认为你可以用一种安全的方式来做这件事。”
2020年8月19日，美国副总统迈克·彭斯在威斯康星州达连市对坦克手公司的工人发表讲话。此次访问是在唐纳德·特朗普总统的儿子埃里克访问该州一天后和总统访问该州两天后进行的。
一些民主党人认为选民欣赏他们的谨慎。
威斯康星州众议员罗恩·金德(Ron Kind)代表的选区曾在2016年被特朗普拿下，今年秋天他将参加竞选连任。他说，他的选民“不希望看到我们在竞选公职时高兴地拥抱和亲吻婴儿。”
“我听到人们说这是真的，我对此完全充耳不闻，我们必须共同努力保护人们的安全。”他说:“我认为他们在这方面给了拜登一些空间。”
斯蒂尔也在威斯康星州奥什科什的一家紧急护理机构担任护士，他对特朗普访问该地区表示遗憾，并担心COVID-19病毒会随之爆发。
她说:“从我们看到的视频来看，我可能要在10到14天内擦鼻子，这让我很难过。”
拜登在一场势均力敌的比赛中领先特朗普
拜登缺少竞选旅行并没有影响他在威斯康星州的民意调查中的地位。
整个夏天，他都在威斯康辛州领先特朗普，8月11日马奎特法学院的民调显示，他在可能的选民中以49%对44%领先总统。(在登记选民中，拜登以48%对42%领先特朗普。(
在威斯康辛州选民的同一项民意调查中，69%的人同意在公共场所戴口罩，而29%的人不同意。民主党州长托尼·埃维斯处理冠状病毒的支持率为61%，35%的受访者不赞成。
马奎特法学院民意调查的负责人查尔斯·富兰克林说:“在威斯康辛州的数据中有很多证据表明，这里的人们非常赞成对COVID采取谨慎的行动。”
“我不认为这会伤害拜登，但我不知道这是否会在秋季晚些时候伤害他，这种对比是否会成为谨慎和鲁莽的明显对比...或者是因为胆怯和恐惧，而不是大胆的领导。”
民主党人和共和党人一致认为，拜登的竞选活动也比克林顿向威斯康星州转移了更多的资源。
四年前，克林顿跳过威斯康辛州，前往宾夕法尼亚州和佛罗里达州等州。在11月份之前，她的竞选团队没有在该州的电视上投放多少广告。
2020年8月17日，密尔沃基，民主党全国代表大会的控制室在大会开始前。
今年，拜登没有忽视威斯康星州。他的竞选团队花费了数百万美元在该州的广告上，整个夏天，以及整个民主党全国委员会的一周，用冠状病毒斑点覆盖了所有五个主要的媒体市场。这位候选人还多次在特拉华州的家中接受当地威斯康辛电视台的采访，威斯康辛州的当地代理人在该州主持了虚拟活动。
本月早些时候，3300多名志愿者在一个周末的活动中通过短信和电话联系了37万选民。在密尔沃基，该活动还开展西班牙语外展，并与历史上九个黑人兄弟会和姐妹会的成员一起组织神圣九电话银行。
总部设在密尔沃基的BLOC是威斯康星州一个组织黑人选民的进步组织，该组织的执行董事安吉拉·朗说:“我确实认为，花时间亲自到这里来，尽可能在社交场合进行距离较远的交谈，是有道理的。”
但与2016年相比，她补充道，“我们处在完全不同的时代。”
Wisconsin Democrats weigh in on Joe Biden's decision to skip in-person visit
MILWAUKEE --Joe Bidenmade a promise to Wisconsin delegates at the Democratic National Convention on a phone call last week: Afterdeciding not to travel to the stateto accept the Democratic presidential nomination because of the coronavirus, he'd be back as soon as possible.
That left Erin Ford, a delegate from Viroqua, Wisconsin, scratching her head.
"If he could have made it, it would have made a difference," she said. "It matters to people that are on the ground."
Besides a trip to Houston tomeet with George Floyd's family, Biden has not left the Mid-Atlantic region since thenovel coronavirusbegan spreading in the United States. His few public appearances, including his DNC acceptance speech last week, have been small, socially distant affairs, as his campaign and the Democratic Party work to "follow the science" and campaign cautiously during the pandemic.
While that strategy is giving Ford and other Wisconsin Democrats flashbacks to the 2016 campaign -- when Hillary Clinton did not travel to the state before Election Day -- many expressed confidence in the largely virtual campaign, according to interviews with more than a dozen party officials across the state.
Even as theylamented the loss of a full-scale convention in Milwaukee, Democrats said they were not worried about Biden skipping out on stumping on the ground while the pandemic remains a concern.
"I don't know anybody who is losing sleep about it," Lori Hawkins, the chair of the Kenosha Democratic Party, said of the lack of visits from the Democratic ticket. "We understand that he'll get here, and she'll get here if they can."
Why Democrats feel confident about Wisconsin
Like the Biden campaign, the Wisconsin Democratic Party has also transitioned to an entirely virtual operation, with volunteers using millions of phone calls, emails and text messages to reach voters rather than in-person events and knocking on doors.
"When you ask people what they want, they want this pandemic to be over," Ben Wikler, the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, told ABC News. "This is a way of campaigning that conveys a powerful winning message, and also a commitment to what he's going to do after he's elected."
undefinedMORE: 5 takeaways from final night of Democratic National Convention
Democrats point to strong numbers from the state's presidential primary in April, when absentee and in-person voting during the pandemic led to a surprising 163,000-vote victory for a liberal candidate inan important Wisconsin Supreme Court racethat was also on the ballot.
"I have never seen the enthusiasm, not even with Hillary, that I'm seeing this year," Marcia Steele, the chair of the Winnebago County Democratic Party, told ABC News.
A sign in a storefront near the Wisconsin center welcomes visitors to the city on Aug. 17, 2020, the first day of the Democratic National Convention, in Milwaukee.
But in a state where President Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by just 22,000 votes, and three of the last five presidential races have been decided by less than 1%, some Democrats think on-the-ground appearances from either Biden or Harris could make a difference in November.
"If you want to win Wisconsin, you have to earn Wisconsin," Ryan Sorensen, a member of the Sheboygan City Council and a Biden DNC delegate, told ABC News.
"Whether it's visiting an auto plant or coming in and speaking at a dairy farm, I think stuff like that is key," he said. "We've got to do everything we can to turn out support."
Republicans on the ground
Led by the president's campaign, Republicans have returned to in-person, on-the-ground campaigning in Wisconsin and other key states. Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, Eric Trump and the Women For Trump coalition all appeared in Wisconsin last week, in an effort to counter-program the virtual DNC meeting anchored in Milwaukee.
"I heard on the way here that Joe Biden hasn't been to Wisconsin in 659 days," Pence said at an appearance in Darien, Wisconsin.
The campaign also purchased digital billboard space in Milwaukee last week that flashed the message "Where's Joe?" during the convention.
"Their virtual events are really going to be speaking to the choir," Wisconsin Republican Party Chair Andrew Hitt told ABC News. "By not coming here, it is going to be very hard to reach the broader public."
Reid Ribble, a former GOP congressman who was critical of Trump and did not vote for him in 2016, said small, outdoor events in keeping with public heath guidelines could help Biden with independent voters who may still be undecided -- and that doing so would distinguish him from Trump's approach to the coronavirus.
"It wouldn't hurt him to once or twice go after states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and actually be present," he said. "I think you can do it in a way that's safe."
Vice President Mike Pence speaks to workers at Tankcraft Corporation on Aug. 19, 2020, in Darien, Wis. The visit comes a day after President Donald Trump's son Eric visited the state and two days after the president visited the state.
Some Democrats believe voters appreciate their caution.
Rep. Ron Kind, D-Wis., who represents a district carried by Trump in 2016, and has a competitive reelection race this fall, said his constituents "don't want to see us running for office out there glad handing and kissing babies."
"It's completely tone deaf from the concern that I hear from people that it's real, and we have to be working together to keep people safe. And I think they're cutting Joe Biden some slack in this regard," he said.
Steele, who also works as a nurse at an urgent care facility in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, lamented Trump's visit to the area, and worried that a COVID-19 outbreak would follow.
"Judging by the videos that we saw, I will be swabbing noses in probably 10 to 14 days, which makes me very sad," she said.
Biden leads Trump in a close race
Biden's lack of campaign travel hasn't impacted his standing in the polls in Wisconsin.
He's has been ahead of Trump in Wisconsin throughout the summer, with an Aug. 11 Marquette Law School poll showing him leading the president among likely voters 49% to 44%. (Among registered voters, Biden led Trump 48% to 42%.)
In the same poll of Wisconsin voters, 69% agreed that masks should be worn in public places, while 29% disagreed. And approval of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers' handling of the coronavirus is at 61%, with 35% of respondents disapproving.
"There's a lot of evidence in the Wisconsin data that people here are pretty pro taking cautious action on COVID," said Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School poll.
"I don't think it's hurt Biden to this point, but I don't know whether it will hurt him later in the fall, whether that contrast becomes a clear example of prudence versus recklessness ... or does it become of timidity and fear versus bold leadership," he said.
Biden's campaign is also diverting more resources to Wisconsin than Clinton did, Democrats and Republicans agree.
Four years ago, Clinton skipped over Wisconsin in favor of travel to states like Pennsylvania and Florida. And her campaign did not run many ads on television in the state ahead of November.
The control room for the Democratic National Convention is seen before the start of the convention, Aug. 17, 2020, in Milwaukee.
This year, Biden isn't overlooking Wisconsin. His campaign has spent millions on advertising in the state, blanketing all five major media markets with coronavirus spots all summer, and through the week of the DNC. The candidate has also repeatedly sat for interviews with local Wisconsin television stations from his home in Delaware, and local surrogates in Wisconsin have led virtual events in the state.
Earlier this month, more than 3,300 volunteers reached 370,000 voters through text messages and phone calls in a single weekend of action. In Milwaukee, the campaign is also conducting Spanish-language outreach, and organizing Divine Nine phone banks with members of the nine historically Black fraternities and sororities.
"I do think that there's something to be said about taking the time to physically be here, and being able to have socially distant conversations where possible," said Angela Lang, the executive director of the Milwaukee-based BLOC, a progressive group organizing Black voters in Wisconsin.
But compared to 2016, she added, "We're in completely different times."
