与总统相比，前副总统乔·拜登拥有明显的——尽管不是不可逾越的——选举团优势唐纳德·特朗普根据美国广播公司新闻对2020年大选的初步评价，奥巴马有多条当选总统的道路，但几乎没有犯错的余地选举。
随着本周末距离选举日还有100天，美国广播公司的竞选评级显示，279张选举人票要么支持民主党，要么倾向民主党——略多于确保总统职位所需的270张选举人票。另外72张选举人票被评为掷硬币，而187张选举人票要么是坚定的，要么是倾向共和党的。
美国广播公司新闻政治组根据高质量的公众投票和来自竞选内部以及参与总统竞选的外部团体的报道来确定竞选评级。
2020年7月21日，在特拉华州的新城堡，民主党总统候选人乔·拜登在他为工薪家庭制定的“重建更好的经济复苏计划”的第三个要点上发表了讲话。
每个州都被分为五个类别，反映了它支持某个特定政党的可能性:绝对共和党、绝对民主党、绝对共和党、绝对民主党和掷硬币决定。这些等级被设计成动态的，比赛等级将在整个夏天每周更新，然后随着11月的临近更加频繁。
美国广播公司新闻部还发布了一个交互式选举地图，允许观众自己做出预测，并与历史结果和政治专家的选择进行比较。
这些评级显示了特朗普的竞选团队被迫采取防御姿态的程度，主要是试图控制四年前投票给共和党的州。特朗普在2016年与希拉里·克林顿的竞选中获得了306张选票，赢得了总统大选，部分原因是他占据了民主党的长期据点:宾夕法尼亚州、威斯康星州和密歇根州。
2020年7月23日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在白宫的新闻发布会上发表讲话。
拜登可以通过夺回这些州来赢得今年的大选，尽管失去其中任何一个州都可能让特朗普超越总统宝座，或者离总统宝座只有几步之遥。密歇根、宾夕法尼亚和威斯康辛都是100天内倾向民主党的州，尽管在接下来的三个多月里形势很容易发生实质性的变化。
这些评级还突显了拜登的其他潜在总统之路——这些道路已经在诱惑他的竞选团队扩大地图。拜登可以承受中西部地区的损失，也可以通过在竞争激烈的太阳带各州的胜利来增加他的获胜优势。
亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州和佐治亚州目前都是举棋不定的州，甚至德克萨斯州也已经失去了稳固的共和党地位，现在只是一个瘦共和党。继2016年决定性地支持特朗普后，俄亥俄州也是一个倾向共和党的州。
缅因州和内布拉斯加州按国会选区授予他们的选举人票，并给全州的获胜者另外两票。据美国广播公司新闻报道，这两个州都有一个地区有可能被选中。
竞选评级显示，特朗普的竞选有一些机会继续进攻，尽管机会不多。在克林顿四年前支持的州中，除了新罕布什尔州、内华达州、明尼苏达州和缅因州外，所有的州都是坚定的民主党，这些州现在都倾向于拜登。
Biden holds early edge in ABC News’ Electoral College race ratings: ANALYSIS
Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a discernible -- though not insurmountable -- Electoral College advantage over PresidentDonald Trump, with multiple paths to the presidency but little margin for error, according to ABC News’ initial ratings for the 2020 generalelection.
With this weekend marking 100 days to Election Day, ABC’s race ratings place 279 electoral votes as either solidly or leaning Democratic -- slightly more than the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency. Another 72 electoral votes are rated as toss-ups, while 187 are either solidly or leaning Republican.
The race ratings are determined by the ABC News Political Unit based on high-quality public polling and reporting from inside the campaigns and from outside groups involved in the presidential race.
Each state is assigned one of five categories that reflect the likelihood of it supporting a particular party ticket: solid-Republican, solid-Democrat, lean-Republican, lean-Democrat and toss-up. These ratings are designed to be dynamic, and race ratings will be updated weekly through the summer and then more frequently as November nears.
ABC News is also unveiling an interactive election map that allows viewers to make their own predictions and compare them against historical results and political experts’ picks.
The ratings show the extent to which Trump’s campaign has been forced into a defensive posture and is primarily trying to hold states that voted Republican four years ago. Trump secured 306 electoral votes in his race against Hillary Clinton in 2016, winning the presidency -- in part -- by taking longtime Democratic strongholds: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Biden could win this year by taking those states back, though losing any of them could put Trump either over the top or within striking distance of the presidency. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all lean-Democrat states 100 days out, though the landscape can easily shift substantially over the next three-plus months.
The ratings also highlight the other potential paths to the presidency for Biden -- avenues that are already tempting his campaign to expand the map. Biden could withstand losses in the upper Midwest or pad his winning margin by stitching together wins in newly competitive Sun Belt states.
Arizona, Florida and Georgia are currently toss-up states, and even Texas has lost solid-Republican status and is now merely lean-Republican. Ohio is also lean-Republican, after going decisively for Trump in 2016.
Maine and Nebraska award their electoral votes by congressional district and give two additional votes to the statewide winner. One district in both states is potentially in play, as rated by ABC News.
The race ratings show a few opportunities for Trump’s campaign to go on offense, though not many. Of the states carried by Clinton four years ago, all are solidly Democratic except for New Hampshire, Nevada, Minnesota and Maine, which are leaning toward Biden for now.
