公众对...的偏好乔·拜登超过唐纳德·特朗普托管来处理冠状病毒自三月份以来，在美国广播公司新闻和华盛顿邮报的最新民意调查中，大流行已经飙升，推动了拜登——以及其他措施——入主白宫。
三个半月前，两位候选人实际上甚至可以信任特朗普来应对这场大流行，特朗普+2个百分点，45-43%。今天，随着COVID-19案件在全国范围内激增，拜登在这个问题上领先特朗普20个百分点，54-34%。
拜登的支持率也有所上升，在3月份落后之后，在处理经济的信任度上接近特朗普。拜登在处理犯罪和安全问题上领先特朗普9个百分点，这也是特朗普最近几周的重点。在种族关系上，拜登以25个百分点，58-33%的最大优势领先。
拜登也有他自己的风险，尤其是对他的候选人资格明显缺乏热情。然而，赤字的影响仍有待观察:对于他的三分之二支持者来说，这主要不是选举拜登，而是击败特朗普。
此外，总统还有其他挑战，从绩效评估到个人品质。据周五报道，对他处理疫情的支持率从3月下旬的51%下降到现在的38%，不支持率上升了15个百分点。他在经济处理上的支持率下降了7个百分点，至50%，不支持率上升了9个百分点。
特朗普的总体工作支持率为39%，该调查由美国广播公司制作兰格研究协会–在大流行过程中下降了9个百分点，反对意见上升了11个百分点。特朗普仍是现代民调中第一位在任期间从未获得多数支持的总统，其职业生涯平均支持率创下新低。
越来越多的人对特朗普的工作表现不满，这是有广泛基础的。自三月份以来，担心感染冠状病毒的人增加了22个百分点，达到82%。他的两个主要支持团体的支持率也有所上升，农村美国人的支持率为+20%，福音派白人新教徒的支持率为+12%，分别达到45%和30%。不赞成的声音也越来越多，尤其是在南方人中间(+18分);黑人、妇女、温和派和郊区居民，年龄都在15到16岁之间。
由于党派偏见，民主党人现在几乎一致反对特朗普在任期间的工作，三个半月内上升了17个百分点，达到95%;56%的独立选民也不赞成，上升了11。在共和党人中，16%的人不同意，比5月下旬上升了10个百分点。
除了对工作的认可，拜登还领先特朗普26个百分点，被视为更有个性和气质的总统候选人。在一项相关的调查中，76%的美国人表示，特朗普在谈论他不同意的人时，“在什么是可接受的问题上越界了。”少了50个百分点，26%，拜登也这么说。
61%的人认为特朗普在分裂国家方面做得比团结国家更多，对他在任的两位前任中的任何一位说得都多。当被问及哪些候选人会为团结美国人做得更多时，拜登以57-33%的优势领先。
拜登在其他个人属性上也以两位数领先——更好地理解像你这样的人的问题(+17分)，更诚实和值得信任(+14分)，更好地代表你的个人价值观(+12分)，更好地理解美国应该代表什么(+10分)。特朗普只在一个人身上推动平等，这个人是更强的领导者，甚至有45-45%的差距。
虽然登记选民的观点相似，但在最有可能投票的选民中，拜登在其中三个项目上失利。最大的不同是，在所有成年人中，他在具备担任总统所需的个性和气质方面领先26个百分点，在可能的选民中略微领先11个百分点，为53-42%。他也在可能的选民中脱颖而出，谁更了解他们的问题，谁是更强的领导者。
投票偏好
候选人观点上的这些差异影响了他们目前的排名:如果民主党人支持拜登，美国人会以54-39%的优势胜出选举是今天。在登记选民中，差距是一样的，55-40%。在可能的选民中，拜登仍然领先，尽管差距接近10个百分点，为54-44%，表明共和党在投票率方面的传统优势——这可能是特朗普最强有力的武器之一。
拜登在登记选民中的优势从3月下旬的49-47%上升到现在的几乎停滞不前的水平，在此之前，不断恶化的流行病形势重创了特朗普的支持率。同样，随着经济人气达到20年来的最高点，拜登在1月份的登记选民中的支持率仅为+4。也就是说，来之不易:去年10月，拜登领先特朗普17个百分点，今年9月领先15个百分点，但他后来放弃了这一领先优势，现在才完全重新站稳脚跟。
自冠状病毒爆发初期以来，特朗普在他的核心群体之一——美国农村人口中的支持率下降幅度最大，他在该群体登记选民中的领先优势从3月下旬的47个百分点降至目前的18个百分点，即56-38%。正如上周五所指出的，他在处理疫情方面的支持率也大幅下降，尤其是在农村地区。(在郊区居民中，拜登和特朗普的支持率分别为52-43%和68-27%，两者基本持平。(
地区变化也很大。拜登在中西部领先，从一片死寂到领先17个百分点。拜登和特朗普在南方的支持率接近50-44%，相比之下，特朗普在3月下旬领先13个百分点。拜登在东北部领先15个百分点，在西部领先30个百分点。
在一个关键的中间群体中，拜登在独立候选人中以54-37%的优势领先，与5月持平，但高于3月的持平。
拜登现在在女性中领先25个百分点，是3月下旬的两倍，在男性中也没有显著的+4，相比之下，当时的男性为-9。这包括60-36%的拜登在郊区女性中领先，相比之下，49-45%的特朗普-拜登在郊区男性中几乎处于绝对优势。
拜登在大学毕业生中领先30个百分点，为63-33%，相比之下，三月底领先15个百分点。(希拉里·克林顿在2016年仅以10个百分点的优势赢得这个小组，得票率为52-42%。)特朗普在白人登记选民中的支持率从18%上升到现在的不足4%，而94%的黑人登记选民支持拜登。
白人天主教徒，潜在的摇摆选民群体，基本上平均分配，51-47%，特朗普-拜登，相比之下，特朗普在三月+13;特朗普在2016年以61-37%的优势赢得了白人天主教徒。特朗普目前在非大学白人男性中的支持率更高，为61-34%，但这是他四年前以71%的支持率赢得的一个群体。在整个政治光谱中，受过大学教育的白人女性支持拜登的比例为60%至38%，相比之下，2016年，她们支持克林顿的比例为51%至44%。
特朗普获得了90%的登记选民的支持，这些选民说他们在2016年投了他的票，但其中8%的人输给了拜登。拜登在2016年赢得了克林顿95%的支持者，特朗普赢得了3%。
同样值得注意的是，拜登以压倒性的82-14%赢得了非常担心感染冠状病毒的登记选民，而以53-41%的微弱优势赢得了有些担心的登记选民。相比之下，那些不太担心的人更喜欢特朗普，支持率为69%至26%。
事实上，在一项名为回归的统计分析中，担心感染冠状病毒是投票偏好的一个重要独立预测因素，它控制了包括党派、意识形态和人口统计在内的其他因素。
邮寄吗?
86%的登记选民表示，他们肯定会在11月的选举中投票，比最近几轮选举中的这一比例略高——2016年7月、2012年和2008年都是79%对81%。
他们将以何种方式投票是另一个问题。38%的美国人说他们更喜欢通过邮件投票，59%的人选择亲自投票。根据美国选举援助委员会的数据，2016年，24%的人通过邮件投票。
考虑到一些州鼓励邮寄投票的努力，这是一个关键的兴趣点，以此来避免在现场投票场所感染病毒。如果邮寄投票真的激增，清点这些选票可能会将计票推迟到选举之夜之后。
特朗普反对邮寄投票，声称这容易引发欺诈，这一观点引起了一些共鸣:49%的人认为邮寄投票容易受到严重欺诈的影响，而43%的人认为针对重大欺诈的充分保护措施已经到位。
党派之争分裂了这些观点。在拜登的支持者中，只有28%的人认为邮寄投票容易受到重大欺诈，54%的人认为这是他们更喜欢的投票方式。相比之下，在特朗普的支持者中，78%的人认为邮寄投票很脆弱，只有17%的人更喜欢这样投票。
在喜欢通过邮件投票的人群中，23%的人认为邮件容易受到重大欺诈。这一比例飙升至67%喜欢亲自投票的人。
其他因素也在起作用。西方人对邮寄投票的偏好要高得多，为56%，这可能反映了邮寄投票在那里的流行程度，相比之下，东北地区仅为25%。大学毕业生的失业率也比非毕业生高得多。
从人们投票的方式到他们投谁的票，这场大流行的过程在11月的选举中是一个明显的通配符。如前所述，热情是个问题。在支持特朗普的登记选民中，69%的人非常热衷于这样做，比2016年他的情况好得多。相比之下，拜登的支持者中有39%的人对他充满热情。就热情转化为投票率而言，这可能会危及拜登目前的领先地位。
话说回来，拜登的动机可能来自另一个方向。在特朗普的支持者中，72%的人表示，对他们来说，重新选举特朗普比击败拜登更重要。在拜登的支持者中，情况几乎相反:67%的人说他们的主要兴趣是击败特朗普。
美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报的这项民意调查于2020年7月12日至15日以英语和西班牙语通过座机和手机进行，随机抽取了全国1006名成年人，包括845名登记选民。结果有抽样误差范围包括设计效果在内，全样本得3.5分，登记选民得4.0分。党派分歧是30-24-39%，民主党-共和党-无党派。
该调查由纽约兰格研究协会为美国广播公司新闻制作，抽样和数据收集由马里兰州罗克维尔的阿布特协会进行。请参见调查方法的详细信息这里。
Pandemic surge damages Trump, boosting Biden's White House bid: POLL
Public preference forJoe BidenoverDonald Trumpin trust to handle thecoronaviruspandemic has soared since March in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, boosting Biden – along with other measures – in the race for the White House.
Three and a half months ago the two candidates were virtually even in trust to handle the pandemic, Trump +2 percentage points, 45-43%. Today, with COVID-19 cases surging around the nation, Biden leads Trump on the issue by a 20-point margin, 54-34%.
Biden’s also advanced, nearly to par with Trump, in trust to handle the economy, after trailing in March. Biden leads Trump by 9 points on handling crime and safety, a focal point of Trump’s in recent weeks. And on race relations, Biden leads by his largest margin, 25 points, 58-33%.
Biden has his own risks, particularly a pronounced lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy. Yet the impact of that deficit remains to be seen: For two-thirds of his supporters, it’s chiefly not about electing Biden, but about defeating Trump.
The president, moreover, has other challenges, ranging from performance assessments to personal attributes. As reported Friday, approval of his handling of the pandemic has fallen from 51% in late March to 38% now, with disapproval up 15 points. He’s lost 7 points in approval of his handling of the economy, to 50%, with disapproval up 9.
Trump’s overall job approval rating is 39% in this poll, produced for ABC byLanger Research Associates– down 9 points in the course of the pandemic, with disapproval up 11. Trump remains the first president in modern polling never to achieve majority approval for his work in office, with the lowest career average on record.
Rising disapproval of Trump’s job performance is broadly based. It’s up 22 points since March among those very worried about catching the coronavirus, to 82%. It’s also up in two of his key support groups, +20 points among rural Americans and +12 points among evangelical white Protestants, to 45 and 30%, respectively. Disapproval also is up especially among Southerners (+18 points); and Blacks, women, moderates and suburbanites, all up 15 to 16.
By partisanship, Democrats now disapprove nearly unanimously of Trump’s work in office, up 17 points in three and a half months to 95%; 56% of independents also disapprove, up 11. Among Republicans, 16% disapprove, up 10 points from late May.
Beyond job approval, Biden leads Trump by 26 points in being seen as having the better personality and temperament to serve as president. In a related finding, a vast 76% of Americans say Trump, in talking about people he disagrees with, “crosses the line in terms of what’s acceptable.” Fifty points fewer, 26%, say Biden does the same.
Sixty-one percent say Trump has done more to divide than to unite the country, more than said so about either of his two predecessors in office. When asked which candidates would do more to unite Americans, Biden leads by another wide margin, 57-33%.
Biden leads by double digits on other personal attributes as well – better understanding the problems of people like you (+17 points), being more honest and trustworthy (+14), better representing your personal values (+12) and having a better idea of what America should stand for (+10). Trump pushes to parity on just one, who’s the stronger leader, an even 45-45% split.
While views are similar among registered voters, Biden loses ground on three of these items among those who are likeliest to vote. In the largest difference, he goes from a 26-point lead among all adults in having the personality and temperament needed to serve as president to a slight 11-point edge among likely voters, 53-42%. He also slips among likely voters in who better understands their problems and who’s the stronger leader.
Vote Preference
These gaps in views of the candidates inform their current standings: Americans divide 54-39% in Biden’s favor if theelectionwere today. Among registered voters, the margin’s the same, 55-40%. Among likely voters Biden still leads, albeit by a closer 10 points, 54-44%, signaling the customary GOP advantage in turnout – potentially one of Trump’s strongest weapons.
Biden’s advantage among registered voters is up from a virtual dead heat, 49-47%, in late March, before the spiraling pandemic situation hammered Trump’s ratings. Biden, similarly, was just +4 among registered voters in January, as economic sentiment hit a 20-year high. That said, what comes can go: Biden led Trump by 17 points last October and 15 in September, leads that he then relinquished, only to fully regain his footing now.
Trump's retreat since the early days of the coronavirus outbreak has been largest in one of his core groups, rural Americans, with his lead among registered voters in this group shrinking from 47 points in late March to 18 points now, 56-38%. As noted Friday, his rating for handling the pandemic also has fallen especially sharply in rural areas. (The race is 52-43%, Biden-Trump, among suburbanites, and 68-27% in urban areas, both essentially steady.)
Regional shifts also are substantial. Biden's advanced in the Midwest, from a dead heat to a 17-point lead. It’s close in the South, 50-44%, Biden-Trump, compared with a 13-point Trump lead in late March. And Biden is ahead by 15 points in the Northeast and a broad 30 points in the West.
In a key center group, Biden leads by 54-37% among independents, unchanged from May but up from an even split in March.
Biden now leads by 25 points among women, double his margin in late March, and is a non-significant +4 among men, compared with -9 among men then. This includes a broad 60-36% Biden lead among suburban women, compared with a virtual dead heat among suburban men, 49-45%, Trump-Biden.
Biden holds a 30-point lead among college graduates, 63-33%, vs. +15 points in late March. (Hillary Clinton won this group by just 10 points in 2016, 52-42%.) And Trump has gone from an 18-point lead among white registered voters to a scant 4 points now, while 94% of Black registered voters support Biden.
White Catholics, potentially a swing voter group, divide essentially evenly, 51-47%, Trump-Biden, vs. +13 for Trump in March; Trump won white Catholics by 61-37% in 2016. Trump currently does better, 61-34%, among non-college white men, but this is a group he won with 71% four years ago. Across the political spectrum, college-educated white women favor Biden by 60-38%, compared with their 51-44% vote for Clinton over Trump in 2016.
Trump retains support from 90% of registered voters who say they voted for him in 2016, but loses 8% of them to Biden. Biden, for his part, wins 95% of Clinton’s 2016 supporters, with 3% going to Trump.
Notably, too, Biden wins registered voters who are very worried about catching the coronavirus by an overwhelming 82-14%, and those who are somewhat worried by a narrower 53-41%. Those who are less worried, by contrast, prefer Trump, 69-26%.
Indeed, in a statistical analysis called regression, being worried about catching the coronavirus is a significant independent predictor of vote preference, controlling for other factors including partisanship, ideology and demographics.
Mail it?
Eighty-six percent of registered voters say they’re certain to cast a ballot in the November election, somewhat higher than typical at this point in recent cycles – it was 79 to 81% in July 2016, 2012 and 2008 alike.
In what manner they’ll vote is another question. Thirty-eight percent of Americans say they’d prefer to vote by mail, 59% in person. In 2016, for context, 24% voted by mail, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.
It’s a key point of interest given efforts by some states to encourage mail-in voting as a way to avoid virus infection at in-person polling places. If mail balloting does surge, counting those ballots could delay the vote count beyond election night.
Trump has pushed back against mail-in voting, alleging that it’s open to fraud, and the argument has some resonance: Forty-nine percent see voting by mail as vulnerable to significant levels of fraud, while 43% think adequate protections against significant fraud are in place.
Partisanship divides these views. Among Biden supporters, just 28% see mail-in voting as vulnerable to substantial fraud, and 54% say it’s how they prefer to vote. Among Trump supporters, by contrast, 78% see mail-in voting as vulnerable, and only 17% prefer to vote that way.
Among people who prefer to vote by mail, 23% see it as vulnerable to significant fraud. This soars to 67% of those who prefer to vote in person.
Other factors come into play. Preference to vote by mail is much higher in the West, 56%, likely reflecting its prevalence there, vs. as low as 25% in the Northeast. It’s also much higher among college graduates than non-graduates.
From how people vote to whom they vote for, the course of the pandemic is a clear wildcard in the November election. So, as noted, is the question of enthusiasm. Among registered voters who support Trump, 69% are very enthusiastic about doing so, much better than it was for him in 2016. That compares with 39% enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters. To the extent that enthusiasm translates to turnout, this could put Biden’s current lead in jeopardy.
Then again, motivation for Biden may come from another direction. Among Trump’s supporters, 72% say it’s more important to them to re-elect Trump than to defeat Biden. Among Biden’s supporters, it’s almost the opposite: Sixty-seven percent say their main interest is to defeat Trump.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone July 12-15, 2020, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults, including 845 registered voters. Results have amargin of sampling errorof 3.5 points for the full sample and 4.0 points among registered voters, including design effects. Partisan divisions are 30-24-39%, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md. See details on the survey’s methodologyhere.
