随着美国经济持续增长冠状病毒案例，即使在更严格的位置健康像加州这样的政策，纽约这个曾经的大流行中心，似乎从春天起就一直在与病毒抗争，并将其控制在海湾地区。
纽约州卫生部门的数据显示，该州绝大多数病例和死亡发生在纽约市，该市7天平均每日新增病例数在4月15日达到峰值，平均为5426例，而该州平均约为9000例。根据该州卫生部的数据，7月15日，该市七天平均气温降至317度，全州为725度。
相比之下，根据佛罗里达卫生部的数据，佛罗里达新记录病例的七天平均值从4月15日的1008例上升到同期的11147例。
NYU格罗斯曼医学院的人口健康和医学教授斯科特·布莱斯维特博士认为，纽约州严格的社会隔离令促成了这一转变，而且纽约州极其谨慎地重新开放了这一局面。
纽约的Covid时间线美国广播公司新闻
他告诉ABC新闻:“我们在4月和5月看到的是3月发生的事情的残余影响。”“当我们在3月份开始关闭的时候，我们花了3到8周的时间才让这种影响真正影响到疫情。”
布莱斯维特和其他健康专家表示，纽约州目前仍是少数几个病例减少的州之一，如果纽约州和纽约市的领导人和居民想避免病例激增，他们可能必须采取进一步措施。
迟到会导致严格的规则
纽约记录了它的第一次冠状病毒案件于3月1日开始，起初州长安德鲁·科莫和纽约市长比尔·白思豪向公众保证，他们可以正常生活，但仍保持谨慎。
3月7日，白思豪甚至告诉纽约人继续乘坐地铁外出。一周后，这座城市迎来了它的第一次死亡，3月22日，库莫发布了他的非必要企业的家庭订单。
在这张2020年4月14日的档案照片中，纽约市市长比尔·白思豪在布鲁克林反饥饿运动组织的食品储藏室里讲话。斯科特海因斯/盖蒂图像，文件
布莱斯维特承认，如果领导人在3月早些时候开始关闭，病例和死亡总数会更低，但他也表示，在疫情爆发的早期阶段，很难激励纽约人如此迅速地改变他们的生活。严峻的形势迫使领导人和纽约人对此更加重视。
他说:“作为一个普通的观察者和公民，我无法想象如果没有这样一个重大的危机，怎么会有人关闭纽约。”
但是从这些错失的机会中，我们得到了一个机会来支持健康专家的策略。
在这张2020年3月30日的档案照片中，展示了纽约贾维茨中心医院的俯视图。埃里克·彭奇奇/雷克斯通过Shutterstock，FILE
作为病例和死亡人数上升和医院的空间被填满了在整个纽约，市和州领导人增加了严格的健康规定，要求所有纽约人在4月份在户外戴口罩，并在企业关门时保持社交距离。
萨福克郡石溪大学医院的首席执行官卡罗尔·戈麦斯告诉美国广播公司新闻，她相信更多的人会认真对待州长的命令，因为他每天都要召开内容丰富的新闻发布会。
据戈梅斯说，尽管仍有一些人公然无视关于遮盖面部和社交距离的规定，但纽约居民大体上还是遵守了健康指南，因为他们不断被提醒注意COVID-19曲线。
2020年3月23日，纽约布鲁克林医院中心，疑似患有新型冠状病毒的患者的指定区域。维克多·j·布鲁/纽约时报
“我真的相信，平衡的重点是与公众沟通，减少传播。”你去超市，每个人都戴着口罩，”她告诉美国广播公司新闻。"我们社区的秩序不断得到加强。"
据布莱斯维特称，这些努力得到了回报，因为数据显示，4月和5月，全州的病例和死亡人数都在下降。
慢慢重新开放
像美国大多数州一样，纽约在5月份开始放松一些限制，因为华盛顿和其他地方施加了巨大的政治压力，要求放松限制，因为流感大流行和随之而来的关闭严重破坏了经济。
作为州长的一部分分阶段重新开放一些州必须满足某些标准，如新病例和死亡人数持续下降、可用医院床位的最低水平和检测能力的提高，才能重新开放一些非必要的业务。
全国其他州的领导人要么在他们的案件没有显示出下降的迹象时开始调查，要么拒绝采取进一步的缓解措施。
戈梅斯说，纽约重新开放的结构性计划不同于其他州，因为地方必须朝着一个目标努力，而不是被迫在任意的日期开放。
她说:“如果(县内)有任何迹象表明这些数字处于危险之中，分阶段行动将被取消。”
在这张2020年6月22日的档案照片中，人们走进了纽约布鲁克林的一家零售店。安吉拉·维斯/法新社，通过盖蒂图像，文件
5月15日，纽约州中部城镇率先进入第一阶段，其中包括对室内活动和人群规模的严格限制。6月8日，纽约市能够进入那个阶段。
截至7月16日，纽约市处于第三阶段，包括开设沙龙和宗教服务，而该州其他地区处于第四阶段，允许开设一些室内业务，如商场和艺术画廊，但有25%的容量。
在这张2020年6月21日的档案照片中，人们正在享受纽约中央公园的天气。吉纳·穆恩/路透社，档案
根据纽约市卫生部门的数据，自第一阶段以来，纽约市平均每天进行约30，000次COVID-19检测，阳性率自那以来一直低于2%。
重新开放的结果与其他州有很大的不同，其他州允许大型集会，没有面具的命令，甚至有类似的严格的COVID-19命令。
其他地方的不同方式
健康专家表示，佛罗里达州、乔治亚州和得克萨斯州在4月底和5月份重新开放时，没有全州范围的口罩禁令，对提供室内活动的企业和服务也没有什么限制。这是在越来越多的证据表明戴面具和其他社会距离措施正在起作用的情况下发生的。
布莱斯维特说，在加州，最初的案件数量非常少，被认为是一个应该做什么的典范，重新开放指导方针的执行不力最终使它走上了一条不同的道路。
2020年6月24日，洛杉矶市中心的大中央市场，人们坐在餐桌旁，全州的冠状病毒病例创下新高。弗雷德里克j布朗/法新社通过盖蒂图像，文件
加州的几个地方，包括旧金山，是三月份美国第一批发布就地避难命令的地方之一。本月中旬，一项全州范围的避难所到位令开始生效。根据加州卫生部的数据，在封锁的几个月里，每日新增病例的平均数量从未超过2000例。
但是加州的指导方针允许太多人群聚集在室内的地方;包括餐馆、酒吧和健身房，这也是该州COVID-19病例上升的原因之一，据布莱斯维特说。
据报道，仅在过去两周内，该州就出现了超过111，000例新的冠状病毒病例加州卫生部7月13日，加文·纽瑟姆州长最终撤销了重新开放室内餐饮等业务的决定。
加州公共卫生部门的一名代表告诉美国广播公司新闻，州长的COVID-19命令意味着灵活，取决于最新数据。
这位代表在一份声明中说:“纽森州长已经多次讨论过用一个调光开关来处理COVID-19病毒爆发的必要性，必要时可以重新开启。”
布莱斯维特说，纽约州的计划比其他州更成功，因为它仍然对企业实行严格的限制。
布莱斯维特说:“问题是，我们不会重新开业。”“我不能去里面的餐馆。我不能看电影。我不能去看演出……我们就是这样避免的。如果我们真的像其他地方一样重新开放，我们现在的情况就不同了。”
前面的艰难道路
布莱斯维特和其他专家警告说，纽约州仍未脱离险境，因为它每天仍会看到数百个病例。
专家表示，州和市领导持续的谨慎态度和适应性政策将有助于保障纽约人的安全。
7月1日，科莫停止了该州所有的室内用餐，就在纽约市允许小组用餐之前。他还对来自22个COVID病例上升的州的人进行强制隔离，如德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州。类似的命令在春天的时候就已经下达给了前往这些州的纽约人。
布莱斯维特说，州长的隔离令是明智的，因为来自该国其他地区的数据显示有显著的增长。
他说:“如果不这样做，我们很容易被佛罗里达州的病例包围，它可能再次起飞。”
纽约州长安德鲁·科莫在2020年7月13日纽约市曼哈顿爆发冠状病毒病后的每日简报会上发言。迈克·西格尔/路透社
7月16日，科莫采取了更多措施来确保企业遵守健康准则，禁止在纽约市的餐馆里只出售酒类，并对不遵守他的命令的企业制定了“三振出局”规则。
布莱斯维特说，如果纽约州看到其他州也有类似的趋势，如果州长制定未来的限制措施，他不会感到惊讶。
他说:“他看到了开放的经济重要性和不让人民死亡的重要性。”“根据我们在其他地方看到的情况，我们将不得不一周接一周地打电话。”
布莱斯维特说，总的来说，纽约居民对这种流行病的破坏性影响有最早的第一手经验，他们已经看到了健康指南是如何保证他们的安全的。
他说:“总的来说，这是一次非常激动人心的经历。”
How New York has been able to keep coronavirus at bay while other states see surges
As the United States continues to see increases incoronaviruscases, even in locations with stricterhealthpolicies like California,New York, the one-time epicenter of the pandemic, appears to have battled back the virus and kept it at bay since the spring.
New York City, where the vast majority of the state's cases and deaths have taken place, saw its seven-day average of new daily cases hit its peak with April 15 with an average of 5,426, while the state's average was around 9,000, according to data from the state's health department. On July 15, that seven-day average was down to 317 in the city and 725 statewide, according to the state's health department.
By comparison, Florida's seven-day average for newly recorded cases went from 1,008 on April 15 to 11,147 over the same three-month period, according to Florida's Health Department.
Dr. Scott Braithwaite, a professor of population health and medicine at NYU's Grossman School of Medicine, credited New York's strict social distancing orders for the turnaround and its extremely cautious reopening for keeping it that way.
"What we were seeing during April and May was a residual effect of what was going on in March," he told ABC News. "When we started to shut down in March it took three to eight weeks for enough of the impact of that to really affect the epidemic."
With New York currently remaining one of the few states to see a decrease in cases, Braithwaite and other health experts say the state and city its leaders and residents may have to take further steps if they want to avoid a surge.
Late start leads to strict rules
New York recorded its firstcoronaviruscase on March 1, and at first Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio assured the public that they could go about their lives normally, but remain cautious.
De Blasio went as far as to tell New Yorkers on March 7 to continue to take the subways and go out. A week later, the city saw its first death, and on March 22, Cuomo issued his stay-at-home order for non-essential businesses.
Braithwaite acknowledged that if the leaders had begun their shutdown earlier in March, the case and death total would have been lower, but also said that it would have been hard to motivate New Yorkers to upend their lives that quickly during the early stages of the outbreak. The dire situation forced the leaders and New Yorkers to take it more seriously.
"As a casual observer and citizen, I could not have seen how anyone could have shut down New York if there wasn't such a major crisis playing out," he said.
But from those missed opportunities came a chance to bolster strategies from health experts.
As thecases and deaths roseandhospital spaces were filled upacross New York, city and state leaders increased their strict health mandates, ordering that all New Yorkers wear a face covering outdoors in April and maintain social distancing while businesses remained shuttered.
Carol Gomes, the CEO of Stony Brook University Hospital in Suffolk County, told ABC News she believes more people took the governor's orders seriously because of his constant and informative daily news conferences.
While there were some who still blatantly ignored the mandates for face coverings and social distancing, New York residents, by and large, adhered to the health guidance because they were being hit constantly with reminders of that COVID-19 curve, according to Gomes.
"I really do believe that the focus on the balance was communicating with the public about reducing the spread. You go to supermarkets and everyone was wearing masks," she told ABC News. "There was continuous reinforcement of the orders in our communities."
The efforts paid off, according to Braithwaite, as the data showed cases and deaths were going down throughout the state in April and May.
Reopening slowly
Like most states in the country, New York began to ease back on some of its restrictions in May amid tremendous political pressure to do so from Washington and elsewhere as the pandemic, and the resulting shutdowns, decimated the economy.
As part of the governor'sphased reopening, sections of the state had to meet certain criteria, such as a sustained decline in new cases and deaths, a minimum level of available hospital beds and increased testing capability, to reopen some of their non-essential businesses.
Leaders in other states across the country either opened when their cases didn't show signs of decline or refused to take further mitigating measures.
Gomes said New York’s structured plan for reopening was different from other states since localities had to work towards a goal instead of being forced to open with an arbitrary date.
"If there was any suggestion [within counties] that any of those numbers in jeopardy, the phasing would be backed off," she said.
Central New York state towns were the first to go to phase 1, which included strict limits on indoor activities and crowd sizes, on May 15. On June 8, New York City was able toenter that phase.
As of July 16, New York City was in phase 3, which included the opening of salons and religious services, while the rest of the state was in phase 4, which allows for the opening of some indoor businesses, such as malls and art galleries but at 25% capacity.
New York City has averaged around 30,000 COVID-19 tests a day since phase one and the positivity rate has been under 2% since that date, according to the city's health department.
The results of the reopening differed greatly from other states that allowed large gatherings and didn't have mask mandates and even ones that had similar strict COVID-19 orders.
A different way elsewhere
States such as Florida, Georgia and Texas did not have statewide mask mandates as they reopened in late April and May and few restrictions on businesses and services that offered indoor activities, according to health experts. This comes even as evidence mounted that mask-wearing and other social distancing measures were making a difference.
Braithwaite said when it comes to California, which initially had a very low case count and was viewed as a model of what to do, poor execution of reopening guidelines eventually sent it down a different path.
Several locations in California, including San Francisco, were one of the first places in the U.S. to issue shelter-in-place orders in March. In the middle of the month, a statewide shelter in place order went into effect. The average number of new daily never went above 2,000 during the lockdown months, according to California's health department.
But California's guidelines allowed too many places where crowds could gather indoors; including restaurants, bars and gyms, and that has contributed to that state's rise in COVID-19 cases, according to Braithwaite.
In the last two weeks alone, the state saw more than 111,000 new coronavirus cases according toCalifornia's Health Department, and on July 13, Gov. Gavin Newsom ultimately reversed his reopening of those businesses such as indoor dining.
A representative for the California Department of Public Health told ABC News that the governor's COVID-19 orders were meant to be flexible, depending on the latest data.
"Governor Newsom has discussed numerous times the need to treat the COVID-19 outbreak with a dimmer switch, with the ability to toggle back on reopening when necessary," the representative said in a statement.
Braithwaite said New York's plan has been more successful than other states because it still puts strict limits on businesses.
"The thing is, we're not reopened," Braithwaite said of New York. "I cannot go to a restaurant inside. I can't see a movie. I can't go to a show…That's how we avoided it. If we really reopened like the other places, we'd be in a different situation now."
The tough road ahead
Braithwaite and other experts warned that New York is still not out of the woods since it is still seeing hundreds of cases a day.
The experts said the state and city leaders' continued cautious approach and adaptive policies will help to keep New Yorkers safe.
On July 1, Cuomo halted all indoor dining in the state, just before New York City was going to allow it for small groups. He also issued mandatory quarantines for anyone coming in from 22 states that have seen COVID cases rise, such as Texas and Florida. Similar orders were put on New Yorkers traveling to those states back in the spring.
Braithwaite said the governor's quarantine order is wise since the data from the rest of the country is showing significant jumps.
"If that isn't carried out, we can easily be besieged from cases from Florida and it could take off again," he said.
On July 16, Cuomo took even more steps to ensure businesses adhere to the health guidelines by prohibiting alcohol-only sales at New York City restaurants and instituting a "three-strike" rule against businesses that fail to comply with his orders.
Braithwaite said he wouldn't be surprised if the governor instituted future restrictions if New York sees a similar trend of other states.
"He sees of the economic importance of opening up and the importance of not letting people die," he said. "The call will have to be week to week, depending on what we see elsewhere."
Overall, Braithwaite said, New York residents had the earliest first-hand experience of the pandemic's devastating effects and they have seen how the health guidelines have kept them safe.
"In general, this was a very galvanizing experience," he said.
