北京——自20世纪90年代初以来，中国成为第一个增长的主要经济体冠状病毒在反病毒封锁解除、工厂和商店重新开业后，大流行在最近一个季度出人意料地强劲增长了3.2%。

周四发布的截至6月份的三个月增长报告，与上一季度6.8%的收缩率相比有了显著改善——这是中国自至少上世纪60年代中期以来最糟糕的表现。但这仍是自中国上世纪90年代初开始公布季度增长以来最弱的正数。

摩根大通资产管理公司(JP Morgan Asset Management)的马赛拉周(Marcella Chow)在一份报告中表示:“我们预计，未来几个季度情况将持续好转。”

冠状病毒大流行始于去年12月的中国，是第一个关闭的经济体，也是第一个在执政的共产党宣布疾病得到控制后，于今年3月启动漫长复苏进程的经济体。

国家统计局在一份声明中表示:“2020年上半年，中国经济从放缓转为增长。”

尽管亚洲最大经济体表现强劲，但亚洲金融市场仍出现下跌，原因是投资者对可能的冠状病毒疫苗研究的热情消退。

中国市场基准上证综指午盘下跌1.4%。在东京，日经225指数下跌0.7%。香港恒生指数下跌1.4%，韩国综合股价指数下跌0.8%。

经济学家表示，由于执政的中国共产党决定实施有史以来最严厉的抗疾病措施，中国可能比其他一些主要经济体复苏得更快。这些措施切断了大部分通往人口总数为6000万的城市的通道，并暂停了贸易和旅行——随着病毒的传播，一些亚洲和欧洲政府后来效仿了这些措施。

制造业和其他一些行业几乎恢复正常。但由于担心可能失业，消费者支出疲软。电影院和其他一些企业仍然关闭，对旅行的限制依然存在。

PNC金融服务集团的比尔·亚当斯在一份报告中说:“这种流行病正在创造赢家和输家。”“制造业引领着中国的复苏。”

麦格理资本(Macquarie Capital)的拉里胡(Larry Hu)和纪欣妤在一份报告中表示，根据最新数据，中国领导人“可能会保持目前的政策立场基本不变。”

国际货币基金组织预测中国今年的增长率为1%。这将是自20世纪60年代以来最弱的一次，但好于国际货币基金组织对美国产出收缩8%和全球产出下降4.9%的预期。

私营部门分析师表示，中国多达30%的城市劳动力，或多达1.3亿人，可能至少暂时失去了工作。他们表示，今年可能会有多达2500万个工作岗位永久流失。

执政党在五月份承诺花费2800亿美元来实现目标，包括创造900万个新工作岗位。但由于担心增加已经很高的中国债务，中国避免了与美国和日本一起推出1万亿美元或更多的救助计划。

中国报告了4634例冠状病毒死亡和83611例病例。自本月初北京爆发疫情以来，还没有国内传播病例的报道。此次疫情在本月初消退之前，已感染了330多人。

周二，在中国报告9天内没有新的本地感染病例后，政府放松了对国内旅游的一些限制。文化旅游部表示，旅游景点可以容纳50%的日游客，高于30%，从一个省到另一个省的旅游可以恢复。

在截至6月份的三个月里，工厂产出增长了4.4%，较上一季度的8.4%有所反弹，此前生产全球智能手机、鞋、玩具和其他商品的工厂重新开业。

零售额下降了3.9%，但与前一季度19%的降幅相比，这是一个显著的改善，当时数百万家庭被限制在家中，购物中心被关闭。在线零售额同比增长14.3%，高于上一季度的5.9%。

6月份出口出人意料地增长了0.4%，但今年上半年仍下降了3%。进口增长了3%，其中包括尽管爆发了关税战争，但美国商品采购量仍增长了10.6%，但今年迄今为止进口下降了3.3%。

预测者警告说，随着口罩和其他医疗用品的销售逐渐减少，以及美国和欧洲零售商取消订单，出口商可能会面临另一轮需求下降。

摩根大通(JP Morgan)的周星驰(Chow)表示:“这表明就业压力持续存在，而就业是当前政府的首要政策重点。”

一个潜在的绊脚石是与中国最大的出口市场美国的关系恶化，双方在贸易、技术、人权和香港问题上存在争议。

两国政府今年1月签署了一项协议，推迟进一步提高关税，以对抗北京方面的技术野心和贸易顺差。但是大多数已经实施的增加仍然有效。

麦格理(Macquarie)的胡和季表示:“最黑暗的时刻已经过去，但鉴于COVID-19和全球经济的巨大不确定性，说中国已经走出困境还为时过早。”

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国家统计局:www.stats.gov.cn​

China becomes first economy to grow since virus pandemic

BEIJING -- China became the first major economy to grow since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, recording an unexpectedly strong 3.2% expansion in the latest quarter after anti-virus lockdowns were lifted and factories and stores reopened.

Growth reported Thursday for the three months ending in June was a dramatic improvement over the previous quarter’s 6.8% contraction —China’s worst performance since at least the mid-1960s. But it still was the weakest positive figure since China started reporting quarterly growth in the early 1990s.

“We expect to see continuous improvement in the upcoming quarters,” said Marcella Chow of JP Morgan Asset Management in a report.

China, where the coronavirus pandemic began in December, was the first economy to shut down and the first to start the drawn-out process of recovery in March after the ruling Communist Party declared the disease under control.

“The national economy shifted from slowing down to rising in the first half of 2020,” the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.

Asian financial markets fell despite the show of strength by the region's biggest economy as investor enthusiasm following announcements about research into a possible coronavirus vaccine receded.

China's market benchmark, the Shanghai Composite Index, was down 1.4% at midday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 lost 0.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 1.4% and the Kospi in South Korea fell 0.8%.

Economists say China is likely to recover faster than some other major economies due to the ruling Communist Party’s decision to impose the most intensive anti-disease measures in history. Those cut off most access to cities with a total of 60 million people and suspended trade and travel — steps later imitated by some Asian and European governments as the virus spread.

Manufacturing and some other industries are almost back to normal. But consumer spending is weak due to fear of possible job losses. Cinemas and some other businesses still are closed and restrictions on travel stay in place.

“The pandemic is creating winners and losers,” said Bill Adams of PNC Financial Services Group in a report. “Manufacturing is leading China’s recovery.”

In light of the latest data, Chinese leaders are “likely to keep the current policy stance largely unchanged,” said Larry Hu and Xinyu Ji of Macquarie Capital in a report.

The International Monetary Fund is forecasting China's growth at 1% this year. That would be the weakest since the 1960s but better than the Fund's outlook for an 8% contraction in U.S. output and a 4.9% decline for the world.

Private sector analysts say as much as 30% of China's urban workforce, or as many as 130 million people, may have lost their jobs at least temporarily. They say as many as 25 million jobs might be lost for good this year.

The ruling party promised in May to spend $280 billion on meeting goals including creating 9 million new jobs. But it has avoided joining the United States and Japan in rolling out relief packages of $1 trillion or more due to concern about adding to already high Chinese debt.

China has reported 4,634 coronavirus deaths and 83,611 cases. No domestically transmitted cases have been reported since an outbreak in Beijing that infected more than 330 people before it faded early this month.

On Tuesday, the government eased some curbs on domestic tourism after China reported no new locally acquired infections in nine days. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism said tourist sites can allow 50% of their daily visitor capacity, up from 30%, and tours from one province to another can resume.

In the three months ending in June, factory output rose 4.4%, rebounding from the previous quarter’s 8.4% contraction after factories that make the world’s smartphones, shoes, toys and other goods reopened.

Retail sales shrank by 3.9%, but that was a marked improvement over the previous quarter’s 19% contraction while millions of families were confined to their homes and shopping malls were shut down. Online retail sales rose 14.3%, up from the previous quarter’s 5.9%.

June exports grew by an unexpectedly strong 0.4% but still are off 3% for the first half of the year. Imports rose 3% — including a 10.6% jump in purchases of U.S. goods despite a tariff war — but are down 3.3% so far this year.

Forecasters warn exporters are likely to face another decline in demand as sales of masks and other medical supplies taper off and U.S. and European retailers cancel orders.

“This suggests sustained pressure on employment, currently the government’s foremost policy priority,” said JP Morgan’s Chow.

A potential stumbling block is worsening relations with the United States, China’s biggest national export market, over disputes about trade, technology, human rights and Hong Kong.

The two governments signed an agreement in January to postpone further tariff hikes in their fight over Beijing’s technology ambitions and trade surplus. But most increases already imposed remained in place.

“The darkest moment is behind us, but given the huge uncertainties from the COVID-19 and the global economy, it’s too early to say that China is out of the woods,” said Macquarie's Hu and Ji.

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National Bureau of Statistics (in Chinese): www.stats.gov.cn