在一个加剧种族紧张的周末之后，总统唐纳德·特朗普周一，他继续推行分裂性的政治策略，引发了新的问题，即这种策略是否会像民调显示的那样奏效落后于温和选民。
他在推特上暗示全美赛车协会犯了一个错误禁止邦联旗帜批评华盛顿红人队和克利夫兰印第安人队考虑改名为了“政治正确”
紧随其后的是独立日在周末的演讲中，他为与种族主义有关联的历史人物的纪念碑进行辩护，并攻击抗议者为“愤怒的暴徒”，其“目标是终结美国”
2020年7月3日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在南达科他州Keystone的拉什莫尔山国家纪念馆发表演讲。艾尔·德拉戈/布隆伯格通过盖蒂图片
“在我们的学校、我们的新闻编辑室，甚至是我们的公司董事会，都有一种新的极左法西斯主义，需要绝对的忠诚，”特朗普周五在拉什莫尔山说，他的脸与被认为是美国最伟大的总统的脸保持一致。
“毫无疑问，这场左翼文化革命旨在推翻美国革命，”他说。
2020年7月4日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和第一夫人梅兰妮·特朗普在华盛顿特区白宫附近观看美国海军蓝色天使和美国空军雷鸟表演天桥塔索斯·卡托普迪斯/盖蒂图像公司
这一版本的“我们对他们”的说辞——这一次是美国人对美国人——出现在奢侈的展示中，配有军事天桥和华丽的烟花，构成了大规模的竞选连任集会。
“攻击我国的激进意识形态打着社会正义的旗号前进。但事实上，这将摧毁正义和社会，”特朗普周五警告说。“它将把正义变成分裂和复仇的工具，把我们的自由社会变成一个压迫、统治和排斥的地方。他们想让我们沉默，但我们不会沉默。”
2020年7月3日，星期五，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在华盛顿特区基斯东附近的拉什莫尔山国家纪念馆微笑亚历克斯·布兰登/美联社照片
新闻报道称这些演讲被认为是“黑暗和分裂的”
白宫显然对这一描述很敏感。新闻秘书凯伊赫·麦克纳尼周一开始了她的新闻发布会，试图改变剧本，称特朗普的语气是“团结和爱国的”
2020年7月6日，白宫新闻秘书凯丽·麦克纳尼在华盛顿举行的新闻发布会上发言埃文·武契/美联社
在列举纽约和芝加哥周末枪击案之前，麦克纳尼说，“像解散警察这样的误导性运动试图让我们的社区比以往更加脆弱。”。她说，这是一种“黑暗的、分裂的”犯罪
尽管他冒着孤立美国大片领土的风险，但一些专家表示，这一策略对特朗普这样的非传统候选人有效。
2020年7月4日，星期六，在华盛顿，唐纳德·特朗普总统在白宫南草坪的“向美国致敬”活动上发表讲话。帕特里克·斯曼斯基/美联社照片
“他不像大多数其他政治家那样做。哥伦比亚大学政治学教授罗伯特·埃里克森说:“大多数人的目标是中间立场，避免发表煽动性言论，但很明显，这种策略的一个版本在2016年对特朗普有效。
埃里克森说，有一种理论可以解释特朗普在美国如此紧张的时期使用“黑暗和分裂”的语言，鉴于他糟糕的民调数据，这场赌博是值得的。
埃里克森说:“鉴于今天的民意调查，如果他的竞选正常进行，他将会失败。”。“因此，如果你是这样看待这种情况的，特别是如果你喜欢采取极端的立场，特朗普真的喜欢这样做，你就去那里。你从你的基础上得到提升。”
2020年7月3日星期五，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在第一夫人梅兰妮·特朗普的陪同下，站在拉什莫尔山国家纪念馆的天桥上亚历克斯·布兰登/美联社照片
“尤其是当涉及到种族问题的时候，你永远不会知道，”埃里克森补充道，他指出这场运动可能是在墙上扔语言，看看用什么棍子。“他可能会让共和党和他一起下台，但也许，只是也许，这可能行得通，因为它可能是一个比大多数人想象的更加种族主义的国家。”
杰伊·巴特是阿肯色州亨德里克斯学院的资深政治学教授，也是小石城第一任首席教育官，他和埃里克森一样，研究美国选举已经有几十年了。
“在选举中，我们倾向于看到候选人的基础被锁定，转向更温和的投票，因为大多数人赢得选举——但这感觉非常不同，”巴特说。“这些信息更具分裂性、反多样性和反宽容性，是特朗普更有家的地方。”
2020年7月4日，星期六，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和第一夫人梅兰妮·特朗普在白宫南草坪的“向美国致敬”活动中站在台上。帕特里克·斯曼斯基/美联社照片
巴特继续认为特朗普能够在修辞上放松是有价值的，尽管“这导致了对许多美国人来说可能相当丑陋的信息。”
他将总统的2020年战略与2016年的战略进行了比较。尽管信息已经从反移民进一步转向反左派，巴特说，“它仍然肯定是对另一方的拒绝，而另一方采取了许多不同的形式。”
“但是因为现在它更多的是针对美国人，我认为国内可能会有更多的抵制，”他补充道。"很明显，他不擅长做出改变，也不擅长吸引更温和的选民。"
2020年7月4日，星期六，在华盛顿，唐纳德·特朗普总统在白宫南草坪的“向美国致敬”活动上发表讲话。帕特里克·斯曼斯基/美联社照片
虽然巴特说，他明白为什么特朗普的演讲稿撰写团队在反移民强硬派斯蒂芬·米勒(Stephen Miller)的带领下，可能会设计一个带有分裂性语言的演讲来激励选民，但他和埃里克森一样，不认为总统像其他候选人那样去争取中间派是有意义的。
他说:“如果你说‘当我们试图发出更温和的呼吁时，这位候选人会变得非常做作或僵硬，不太好’，这很有道理，那么让一位候选人变得更自在、更自然是有一定的逻辑的——但在触及核心选民所需的意识形态温和方面，这就不太符合逻辑了。”。
“他在很多方面都是一个杰出的政治人物，”巴特补充道。“问题是，这种例外主义是否依然存在，还是随着时间的推移，一些已经确立的游戏规则又回到了前沿。”
Trump's 'dark and divisive' rhetoric energizes base but risks isolating moderate voters
After a weekend of stoking racial tensions, PresidentDonald Trumpcontinued his divisive political strategy on Monday, raising new questions about whether it would work as polls showed himfalling behind with moderate voters.
He suggested in tweets that NASCAR had made a mistakebanning Confederate flagsand criticized the Washington Redskins and Cleveland Indians forconsidering changing their namesin order to be "politically correct."
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That follows back-to-backIndependence Dayweekend speeches in which he defended monuments to historical figures with ties to racism and attacked protesters as "angry mobs" whose "goal is to end America."
"In our schools, our newsrooms, even our corporate boardrooms, there is a new far left fascism that demands absolute allegiance," Trump said Friday at Mount Rushmore, positioned so his face was in line with the presidents considered among America's greatest.
"Make no mistake, this leftwing cultural revolution is designed to overthrow the American Revolution," he said.
This version of "us versus them" rhetoric -- this time pitting Americans against Americans -- came amid extravagant displays complete with military flyovers and flashy fireworks that had the makings of a grand-scale reelection campaign rally.
"The radical ideology attacking our country advances under the banner of social justice. But in truth, it would demolish both justice and society," Trump warned Friday. "It would transform justice into an instrument of division and vengeance and turn our free society into a place of repression, domination and exclusion. They want to silence us, but we will not be silenced."
Press reports called the speeches overwhelmingly deemed "dark and divisive."
The White House was clearly sensitive to that characterization. Press secretary Kayeigh McEnany opened her press briefing Monday attempting to flip the script, calling Trump's tone "unifying and patriotic."
"Misguided movements such as defund the police seek to leave our communities more vulnerable than ever," McEnany said, before listing weekend shootings in New York and Chicago. It's that crime, she said, which "is dark, and it is divisive."
Although he risks isolating a large swath of the country, some experts say the strategy works for an unconventional candidate like Trump.
"He doesn't do it like most other politicians do. Most aim for the middle and avoid making inflammatory statements, but obviously a version of this strategy worked for Trump in 2016," said Robert Erikson, a professor of political science at Columbia University.
Erikson said one theory to explain Trump's use of "dark and divisive" language during such a tense time in the country is, given his bad poll numbers, the gamble is worth it.
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"Given the polls today, he would lose if his campaign ran the normal course," Erikson said. "So if that's how you perceive that circumstance, and particularly if you enjoy taking extreme positions, which Trump really likes to do, you go there instead. You get the rise out of your base."
"Particularly when issues of race are involved, you never know," Erikson added, noting the campaign could be throwing language on the wall and seeing with what sticks. "He'll probably just take the Republican Party down with him but maybe, just maybe, it might work, because it might be a more racist country than most think."
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Jay Barth, a longtime politics professor at Hendrix College in Arkansas and the city of Little Rock's first chief education officer, like Erikson, has studied American elections for decades.
"In elections we tend to see candidates have their base locked up and veer towards more moderate votes because majorities win elections -- but this feels very different," Barth said. "These messages that are much more divisive, anti-diversity and anti-tolerance, that's a place where Trump feels more at home."
Barth goes on to argue there's value in Trump being able to be at ease rhetorically, even though "that leads to messaging that that can be pretty ugly to a lot of Americans."
He compared the president's 2020 strategy to that of 2016. Though the message has shifted further from anti-immigrant to anti-left, Barth said, "it's still definitely a rejection of the other, and the other takes a lot of different forms."
"But because now it is more directed at Americans, I think there's probably a little more resistance to it within the country," he added. "He's clearly not adept at making the pivot and making appeals to more moderate voters."
While Barth said he sees why Trump's team of speechwriters, led by anti-immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller, might design a speech with divisive language to energize the base, he, like Erikson, does not see it making sense for the president to reach for the middle as other candidates would.
"It makes a lot of sense if you say, 'This candidate is going to be really stilted or stiff and not very good when we're trying to make appeals that are more moderate,' then there is some logic in having a candidate who's more at ease and more natural -- but it isn't very logical when it comes to the ideological moderation that is needed to reach core voters," he said.
"He has been an exceptional political figure in a lot of ways," Barth added. "The question is, does that exceptionalism remain or do some of the rules of the game that have been established over time kind of come back to the forefront."
