伊朗军队声称扣押了一艘被控通过波斯湾非法运输石油的小型油轮，这是一系列紧张事态发展中的最新事件，表明全球力量平衡正在发生变化。
伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)官方通讯社周四发表声明，确认他们的海军巡逻队周日在霍尔木兹海峡附近的拉腊克岛以南扣押了“一艘携带一百万升走私燃料的外国船只”。据说这艘船的容量是被没收的石油的两倍，共有12名船员，所有人都被拘留。
尽管该船的名称或旗帜尚未确定，但伊朗半官方媒体电视后来播放的镜头显示该船为Riah，一艘总部设在阿联酋、悬挂巴拿马国旗的油轮据报道失踪了周六在伊朗邻近拉腊克的克什姆岛海岸。伊朗外交部周二晚些时候表示，革命卫队向该地区一艘身份不明的船只提供了援助，周四的声明否认“西方媒体称，伊朗近日扣押了任何其他船队”
面对美国越来越多的制裁和军事威胁，伊朗伊斯兰共和国一直发誓要保卫自己，保卫波斯湾的水域，尽管五角大楼声称伊朗军队实际上是袭击商业船只的幕后黑手。追踪伊朗经济发展的交易所和巴扎的创始人埃斯凡迪亚·巴特曼赫利杰(Esfandyar Batmanghelidj)表示，在这种地缘政治背景下，伊朗的最新举措在国内外具有双重目的。
4月30日，伊朗军队在霍尔木兹海峡的一艘商船附近参加“国家波斯湾日”。世界三分之一的海上石油运输通过关键的瓶颈，这是美国和伊朗紧张局势的中心。ATTA·肯纳雷/法新社/盖蒂图片社
“IRGC扣押了一艘从事走私活动的外国油轮，这向国内和国际观众发出了一个信息，”巴曼赫利杰说新闻周刊。“对伊朗公众来说，IRGC可以展示其打击其领导层所说的走私‘七头龙’的决心。对国际社会来说，扣押如果得到确认，就是一种能力声明。”
“通过瞄准一艘不起眼的小型船只，并依靠走私指控，IRGC很可能试图在不引发新的安全危机的情况下展示其能力，”他补充道。“这是另一场赌博。”
这长期困扰的美国和伊朗关系自唐纳德·特朗普总统去年决定退出2015年核协议以来，伊朗再次面临危机，令人想起20世纪80年代的油轮战争。该协议承诺给予德黑兰制裁，以换取伊朗同意遏制其核活动。尽管国际原子能机构一再核实伊朗的遵守情况，并得到中国、欧盟、法国、德国、俄罗斯和英国等签署国的持续支持，但自单方面退出以来，美国越来越多地限制伊朗的经济。
美国指责伊朗支持中东各地的激进组织，并以其弹道导弹计划威胁地区稳定。尽管伊朗一直否认寻求核武器，但它誓言将继续发展其导弹库，以抵御美国以及以色列和沙特阿拉伯等地区盟友。
7月6日，复仇者联盟级反水雷舰艇“蹂躏者号号”、“角斗士号”、“哨兵号”和“灵巧号”在波斯湾的编队。五角大楼加强了在一个有着美国和伊朗冲突血腥历史的地区的军事存在。安东尼奥·杰马·莫里/美国海军中央司令部
五角大楼最近开始加强其在该地区的军事存在，声称伊朗对华盛顿在该地区的利益构成了更大的威胁，后来指责伊朗在5月和上月对附近阿曼湾的商业石油船只发动了两系列袭击。伊朗否认了这些指控，但革命卫队后来声称一架美国海军间谍无人机被击落他们声称伊朗territory—a航空公司的举动遭到破坏，导致特朗普几乎进行空袭，因为五角大楼声称无人驾驶设备在国际空域。
尽管英国和其他核交易方一道呼吁双方缓和局势，但英国皇家海军陆战队本月早些时候突袭了一艘伊朗超级油轮，指控其通过直布罗陀向叙利亚运送石油，这显然违反了欧盟的制裁。伊朗威胁要报复，尽管它否认了美国关于随后发生的事件的说法，在该事件中，革命卫队据称接近一艘英国油轮，却被一艘护航军舰赶走。
确保石油通过国际水域的流动一直是波斯湾最近动荡的中心。全球海洋研究所所长、塔夫茨大学弗莱彻海洋研究项目主任罗克福德·韦茨说，“没有什么比这更能让世界团结起来了”，但他告诉我们新闻周刊为什么当前的危机导致大国分裂。
韦茨说:“毫无疑问，退出伊朗核协议总体上造成了该地区的不稳定，并使美国外交处于攻势。”他补充说，与此同时，如果伊朗是阿曼湾针对挪威、日本、沙特和阿联酋船只的爆炸的幕后黑手，德黑兰的战略“事与愿违，没有取得预期的结果。”
一幅图片展示了世界上一些最重要的海上石油运输瓶颈，紧张的霍尔木兹海峡每年容纳约1680万桶石油。STATISTA
针对欧洲未能实现协议中概述的贸易关系正常化，伊朗已经暂停了对核协议的部分承诺，从而加大了风险。尽管欧盟最近宣布了一种旨在促进与伊朗交易的特殊贸易工具，但迄今为止，这种工具主要局限于人道主义产品，而非石油等利润丰厚的行业，伊朗官员已经开始将铀浓缩到超出限制的水平。
尽管如此，核协议国家还没有启动协议中概述的争端解决机制。相反，他们呼吁加强EU-与伊朗的贸易渠道，并呼吁伊朗再次遵守，同时谴责美国的制裁，这些制裁进一步将美国与其跨大西洋伙伴隔离开来。由于特朗普政府奉行“美国第一”的外交政策，这些伙伴一再被边缘化。
韦茨告诉我新闻周刊尽管在过去几年中，美国可能很快就能组建一个反对伊朗的海上力量“大联盟”，但这种团结还没有显现出来，原因有三:“特朗普对待他的传统盟友的方式”、“他退出核协议”以及“北约盟友的紧迫性因石油总流量的变化而降低”这三个发展也导致了中国、俄罗斯和日本等其他新兴大国的崛起更突出的角色在国际事务中，尤其是当欧洲面临国内政治动荡时。
韦茨说:“这里日常头条背后的真实故事是，这是一个多极世界的样子。”他称北约独自主导全球安全事务的日子是“历史的一部分”
U.S.-IRAN OIL CRISIS: WHAT IT MEANS FOR BOTH COUNTRIES AND THE REST OF THE WORLD
Iranian forces have claimed the seizure of a small tanker accused of illicitly carrying oil through the Persian Gulf, the latest incident in a series of tense developments that demonstrate a shifting balance of global power.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) official news agency issued a statement Thursday confirming that their naval patrols seized "a foreign vessel caught in the act of carrying one million liters of smuggled fuel" Sunday south of Larak Island, near the Strait of Hormuz. The ship was said to have had a capacity twice that of the amount of oil confiscated and a crew of twelve, all of whom have been detained.
Though the name or flag of the ship was not identified, footage later aired by Iran's semi-official Press TV identified the ship as Riah, a UAE-based, Panamanian-flagged oil tanker reported to have disappeared Saturday off the coast of Iran's Qeshm Island, which neighbors Larak. The Iranian Foreign Ministry later said Tuesday that the Revolutionary Guards rendered assistance to an unidentified vessel in the area and Thursday's statement denied "Western media claims that any other flotilla was seized by Iran in recent days."
Facing mounting U.S. sanctions and military threats, the Islamic Republic has consistently vowed to defend itself and secure the waters of the Persian Gulf, even as the Pentagon claimed Iranian forces were actually behind attacks on commercial vessels. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of Bourse & Bazaar, which tracks developments in Iran's economy, said that, amid this geopolitical backdrop, Iran's latest move served dual purposes at home and abroad.
Iranian forces take part in "National Persian Gulf Day" near a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, April 30. A third of the world's maritime oil traffic passes through the crucial chokepoint, which is at the center of U.S.-Iran tensions.ATTA KENARE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
"The IRGC's seizure of a foreign tanker engaged in smuggling activities sends a message to both domestic and international audiences," Batmanghelidj told Newsweek. "For the Iranian public, the IRGC gets to demonstrate its commitment to combatting what its leadership has called the 'seven-headed dragon' of smuggling. For the international community, the seizure, if confirmed, serves as a statement of capability."
"By targeting an obscure, small vessel and by leaning on the smuggling allegation, the IRGC is likely trying to demonstrate capabilities without triggering a new security crisis," he added. "It's another gamble."
The long-troubled U.S.-Iran relationship has once again approached a crisis point reminiscent of the tanker wars of the 1980s since President Donald Trump's decision last year to pull out of a 2015 nuclear deal that promised Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for agreeing to curb its nuclear activities. Despite the International Atomic Energy Agency repeatedly verifying Iran's compliance and the continuing support of fellow signatories China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom, the U.S. has increasingly restricted Iran's economy since the unilateral exit.
The U.S. has accused Iran of backing militant groups across the Middle East and of threatening regional stability with its ballistic program. While Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons, it has vowed to continue developing its missile arsenal in order to defend against the U.S. as well as its regional allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia.
A formation of Avenger-class mine countermeasure ships USS Devastator, USS Gladiator, USS Sentry and USS Dextrous maneuver in the Persian Gulf, July 6. The Pentagon has boosted its military presence in a region with a bloody history of U.S.-Iran encounters.ANTONIO GEMMA MORÉ/U.S. NAVAL FORCES CENTRAL COMMAND
The Pentagon has recently begun to bolster its own military presence in the region, claiming Iran posed a heightened threat to Washington's interests there and later blaming the country for two series of attacks May and last month on commercial oil vessels in the nearby Gulf of Oman. Iran has dismissed these allegations, but the Revolutionary Guards did later claim the shootdown of a U.S. Navy spy drone they claim breached Iranian aerial territory—a move that led Trump to nearly conduct airstrikes as the Pentagon claimed the unmanned device was in international airspace.
Though the U.K. has joined other nuclear deal parties in calling for de-escalation on both sides, Royal Marines stormed an Iranian supertanker earlier this month they accused of transporting oil to Syria via Gibraltar, an apparent violation of EU sanctions. Iran has threatened to retaliate, though it denied U.S. claims of a subsequent incident in which the Revolutionary Guards allegedly approached a U.K. oil tanker only to be driven away by an escorting warship.
Securing the flow of oil through international waters has been at the center of recent unrest in the Persian Gulf. Rockford Weitz, president of the Institute for Global Maritime Studies and director of Fletcher Maritime Studies Program at Tufts University, said there are "few things that unite the world more" than this, but told Newsweek why the current crisis has left major powers divided.
"There is no question that pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal caused instability in the region, generally speaking, and put U.S. diplomacy on the offensive," Weitz said, adding that, at the same time, if Iran was behind explosions targeting Norwegian, Japanese, Saudi and UAE vessels in the Gulf of Oman, Tehran's strategy "backfired in a significant way and did not have the desired outcome."
A graphic displays some of the world's most important chokepoints for maritime oil traffic, with the tense Strait of Hormuz hosting the flow of some 16.8 million barrels a year.STATISTA
Iran has already raised the stakes by suspending some of its commitments to the nuclear deal in response to Europe's failure to normalize trade ties as outlined in the agreement. Though the EU recently announced a special trade vehicle designed to facilitate transactions with Iran, these were so far largely limited to humanitarian products, not lucrative industries like oil, and Iranian officials have begun enriching uranium beyond restricted levels.
Still, the nuclear deal countries have not triggered a dispute resolution mechanism outlined in the accord. Instead, they have called for strengthening the EU-Iran trade channel and have called on Iran to again comply, while condemning U.S. sanctions that have further isolated Washington from its transatlantic partners who have been repeatedly sidelined as the Trump administration pursued an "America First" foreign policy.
Weitz told Newsweek that, while in past years the U.S. may have quickly been able to form "a grand coalition" of maritime forces against Iran, such unity has yet to manifest itself for three reasons: "the way Trump treats his traditional allies," his "pulling out of the nuclear deal" and the fact that "the urgency of NATO allies is less because of changes in the general flow of oil." These three developments have also led to other rising powers such as China, Russia and Japan taking a much more prominent role in international affairs, especially as Europe faced domestic political turmoil.
"The actual kind of real story behind the day-to-day headlines here is that this is what a multipolar world looks like," Weitz said, calling the days in which NATO alone dominated global security affairs "a part of history."
