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刺激法案“来得早,去得晚”:特朗普经济顾问

2020-05-23 09:34   美国新闻网   - 

特朗普政府和国会继续发出信号,表示联邦政府最终将会提供更多救助。但是问题依然存在:什么时候?

白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特周五早上告诉美国有线电视新闻网,“我认为这是迟早的事。”他没有透露具体的时间表。

但哈塞特说的是,另一个刺激方案的可能性“很有可能”,承认需要采取更多行动来帮助经济摆脱大萧条时期的失业,4月份就业报告周五发布,前景黯淡。

4月份,全国失业率上升了10.3%,达到14.7%,比2019年4月份高出11.1个百分点。周四公布的每周申请失业救济人数要少得多:又有240万人申请失业救济,这使得自大流行病导致美国经济瘫痪以来,申请失业救济的总人数增加到近3900万。

“我们正在恢复正常,但有一点是肯定的——如果你看到最初的声明,那里仍然有很多痛苦,”哈塞特告诉美国有线电视新闻网的波比·哈洛。“你看到的是大约4000万失业人口,所以,是的,我认为肯定有理由做些别的事情。”2018年9月10日,经济顾问委员会前主席、现任总统唐纳德·特朗普的经济顾问凯文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)在华盛顿特区的白宫简报会上发言。

这位经济顾问对未来援助的支持与国会共和党人日益增长的情绪不谋而合刺激是“不可避免的”但仍有待观察的是,随着各州重新开放、经济开始动荡,共和党在是否需要额外救助的问题上仍存在分歧,共和党议员将支持哪些提议。一些共和党人说,他们设想在7月4日之前通过立法th休会,而其他人认为他们只会从6月底开始与民主党人谈判一项协议。

众议院民主党上周通过了一项3万亿美元的一揽子计划,但在参议院共和党人和白宫中缺乏任何政治可行性。

哈塞特说,他预计5月份的失业率将达到22%,6月份的失业率将“稍高”,并补充说,他正着眼于下个月,看起来像是就业市场的“转折点”芝加哥大学贝克尔·弗里德曼研究所本月早些时候估计,超过40%的失业可能永远不会回来。

哈塞特并不是特朗普政府唯一暗示需要更多经济救助的官员。财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔给出了类似的指标。

姆努钦表示,另一项法案“极有可能”最终会出台,而鲍威尔警告议员们,如果他们选择放弃更多援助,可能会产生持久的经济影响。

 

Another Stimulus Bill Coming 'Sooner Rather Than Later,' Trump's Economic Adviser Says

The Trump administration and Congress continue to signal that more relief from the federal government will eventually be on its way. But the question remains: When?

"I think it's coming sooner rather than later," White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett told CNN Friday morning, offering few details on a potential timeline.

But what Hassett did say is that the probability of another stimulus package is "pretty likely," an acknowledgment that more action will need to be taken to help lift the economy out of its Depression-era unemployment amid a bleak April jobs report released Friday.

The national unemployment rate rose by 10.3 percent in April to 14.7 percent—11.1 points higher than in April 2019. Weekly jobless claims released Thursday were far more dismal: an additional 2.4 million people filed for unemployment benefits, raising the total since the pandemic shut down the American economy to nearly 39 million.

"We are getting back to normal, but there for sure—if you saw the initial claims, there's still a lot of pain out there," Hassett told CNN's Poppy Harlow. "You're looking at about 40 million unemployed folks, so, yeah, I think that there's definitely cause for doing something else."

Kevin Hassett, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers who is now an economic advisor to President Donald Trump, speaks during a briefing at the White House in Washington, D.C., on September 10, 2018.

The economic advisor's endorsement of future aid coincides with the growing sentiment among Republicans on Capitol Hill that a stimulus is "inevitable." But what remains to be seen is what proposals GOP lawmakers will support as the party remains divided over whether additional relief will even be needed as states reopen and the economy begins churning. Some Republicans say they envision passing legislation prior to July 4th recess while others believe they will only begin to negotiate a deal with Democrats starting late June.

House Democrats passed a $3 trillion package last week, but it lacks any political viability among Senate Republicans and the White House.

Hassett said he expects May unemployment numbers to top 22 percent and for June to "be a little higher," adding that he is eyeing next month to resemble the job market's "turning point." The Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago estimated earlier this month that upward of 40 percent of lost jobs may never return.

Hassett is not the only Trump administration official signaling more economic relief will be required. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have given similar indicators.

Mnuchin has said it is a "strong likelihood" another bill will eventually come while Powell has warned lawmakers of the potential lasting economic impacts if they choose to forgo more aid.

 

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