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当美国在国内奋力对抗COVID-19时,中国、俄罗斯看到了机会

2020-04-02 09:44   美国新闻网   - 

地缘政治事务专家和一名了解此事的美国高级情报官员告诉记者,中国和俄罗斯正在利用冠状病毒大流行将自己定位为世界领袖,而美国则把注意力转向国内事务,以抗击这种传染病新闻周刊。

一位不愿透露姓名的美国高级情报官员告诉记者,这种抑制病毒传播的努力可能会阻碍美国回应国际求助的能力。预计这种病毒将很快感染全球100万人新闻周刊—留下了华盛顿本可以介入的潜在空白。这位官员表示:“中国和俄罗斯的目标是填补这一空白,即便是以牺牲自己的准备为代价。”。

“两个对手都在玩长期游戏,”这位官员补充道。这位官员解释说,北京和莫斯科“将通过向医疗系统不发达或不堪重负的国家提供必要的医疗设备、个人防护设备和测试,推进破坏美国维持战略伙伴关系和联盟努力的企图,同时指出,美国由于自身的无能和无力应对大流行而无法做出反应。”

这位熟悉中央情报局内部一份讨论潜在全球权力转移的报告的官员还警告说,世界各国可能会发生动荡。这一点,再加上内部预测,这种流行病可能会延续到2020年以后,让中国和俄罗斯进一步提升它们在世界舞台上的地位。

中情局拒绝对此发表评论新闻周刊。

这种流行病肯定会造成全球经济动荡。联合国周三警告称,这一点以及“它导致不稳定加剧、动荡加剧和冲突加剧的风险,让我们相信这是自第二次世界大战以来我们面临的最具挑战性的危机。”

3月30日,俄罗斯伏尔加-第聂伯航空公司(Volga-Dnepr Airlines)的一架安东诺夫124型飞机在巴黎-瓦特里机场运送法国从中国订购的1000万个口罩,一名武装宪兵站在该飞机旁边守卫。法国政府已经订购了10亿个口罩,主要来自中国,但警告称,全球对防护设备的需求激增,这意味着这些口罩可能不会很快送达目前面临短缺的医务人员手中。

中国和意大利已经经受住了最严重的疾病,截至周三,美国确诊的COVID-19病例约为20万例,比世界上任何其他地方都多。其中包括超过4300名美国人死亡,或者更多美国人伤亡比911恐怖袭击和随后长达18年的阿富汗战争更重要。美国也发现自己的关键医疗用品严重不足,如个人防护装备(PPE)和呼吸机(呼吸机是一种为身体虚弱而无法自己呼吸的病人准备的设备)。特朗普政府预计到8月份死亡人数将达到10万至24万。

随着COVID-19测试全球决心,美国成为世界唯一超级大国的想法也受到了挑战。这位美国高级情报官员说,华盛顿支持其他国家的能力可能会受到该国遏制自身疫情的努力的严重限制,这将需要大规模调动军事、医疗和货币资源。

这位美国高级情报官员告诉记者:“我认为,美国应该用尽一切可能的手段来减轻病毒在国内和全球的传播,因为影响不仅仅局限于我们的人口。”新闻周刊。“在后美国时代的全球化经济中,病毒正在扰乱进出口、基本食品和商品的流动,并最终会随着我们在国内外的军事准备状态而影响我们的国家安全。”

中国国家主席习近平和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京,这两个人可能会因为小心翼翼的宪法改革而终身执政,他们似乎热衷于在美国需要的时候填补这个空缺。

“俄罗斯和中国都表现出了机会主义外交政策的主动性,占据了美国从二战后的领导地位撤退所提供的空间,”道格拉斯·伦敦,前中情局秘密行动高级官员,现在在乔治敦大学安全研究中心任教,告诉记者新闻周刊。

伦敦补充道:“COVID-19大流行测试了美国已经紧张的国际关系,这些关系被特朗普的‘美国第一’原则所破坏,同时进一步缩小了华盛顿对国内健康和经济危机的关注。”。“尽管俄罗斯和中国不能忽视两国人民的不满,但作为独裁国家,两国都不与开放的社会、自由的媒体或合法的选举竞争,这可能会对两国的权力构成可信的威胁。"

北京已经承认了它想要让自己出名的愿望。在周四的新闻发布会上,中国大校任国强说:“中国积极参与国际合作,并尽可能向其他国家和国际组织提供帮助。”

俄罗斯外交部发言人玛丽亚·扎卡罗娃(Maria Zakharova)周四在一篇脸书帖子中称,俄罗斯在意大利的存在是“孤立的顶点,是‘俄罗斯威胁’的典范,是‘克里姆林宫的手’的解剖”。

美国也没有抛弃国际社会。庞贝也于周四宣布,美国将投入近2.74亿美元的紧急医疗和人道主义资金,支持全球64个风险最高的国家。“我们在COVID-19反应中的领导地位是美国——我们的政府、我们的企业和组织以及我们的人民——继续成为世界上最伟大的人道主义者的又一个例子,”庞贝在一份声明中说。

但中国和俄罗斯的行动也扩展到了以美国为首的北约西方军事联盟成员,如意大利,迄今为止,意大利遭受的与COVID-19相关的死亡人数比任何其他国家都多。为了帮助减轻灾难,俄罗斯专家部队已经部署到该国的北半部,中国在最近几周派遣了医疗人员和设备。在邻国北约成员国法国,一架俄罗斯安东诺夫-124周一交付了从中国订购的1000万个面罩。

中国的援助已经到达许多欧洲国家,以及非洲、拉丁美洲和亚洲其他地区的国家。

尽管一些国家抱怨中国和俄罗斯公司发送的设备有问题,但北京和莫斯科仍不断收到来自世界各地的求助请求。美国对中国和俄罗斯回应这些请求的意图表示担忧。

然而,国务院发言人告诉记者新闻周刊美国官员“欢迎所有捐助者提供高质量、透明、无条件的捐款,以进一步推动全球正在进行的应对努力。”

总部位于北京的中国与全球化中心的研究员安迪·莫克(Andy Mok)表示,许多欧洲国家已经将中国视为最大的贸易伙伴。他表示,中国对COVID-19的积极回应,也可能被证明是塑造欧洲与北京业已转变的关系的一个“重要”因素。

“有些人追求伟大,其他人则被强加给他们,”莫告诉记者新闻周刊。“如果我们可以这样解释的话,现在有许多国家都在与COVID-19做斗争,它们缺乏物质资源和专业知识,而中国一直在加大努力。”

他补充道:“如果有需求,有人正在满足它,那么我认为他们自然会被以不同的方式看待,被赋予更积极的意义。”。“似乎这就是正在发生的动态。”

3月22日,俄罗斯航空航天部队的一架俄罗斯伊柳辛-76飞机携带军事专家和设备,准备离开奇卡洛夫斯基军用机场前往意大利协助抗击冠状病毒。此后,俄罗斯向包括美国在内的一些国家提供了援助,以抗击COVID-19大流行。

在接受中国和俄罗斯的支持时,白宫似乎承认其主要对手可以在世界事务中发挥建设性作用。

特朗普政府的一名高级官员证实新闻周刊俄罗斯预计将“运送一飞机的个人防护设备和用品”该官员补充道:“我们将立即投入使用任何需要的食品和药物管理局批准的项目。同样,美国正在向许多其他国家运送设备和物资,并将继续尽我们所能做得更多。”

奥巴马政府还辩称,其在海外的全球军事态势依然坚定不移。

“美国不认为俄罗斯或中国对欧洲国家的援助是对北约的挑战。北约在这个危机时刻保持强大和团结,”国防部长公共事务助理乔纳森·霍夫曼告诉记者新闻周刊。"美国将继续向我们的许多北约盟国提供COVID援助."

新闻周刊本月早些时候报道冠状病毒对美国武装力量的影响越来越大,迫使其全球司令部取消、推迟和调整某些军事演习。美国驻德国斯图加特部队周日在一份声明中称,国防部长马克·埃斯珀此后对部队调动实施了更严格的控制,并指示当地部队停止报告“出于行动安全目的”的阳性COVID-19病例。

美国越来越多地在国内使用其庞大的资源,包括广泛的国民警卫队部署和两艘医院船,以帮助缓解纽约和洛杉矶不堪重负的医疗中心。世界上资金最充足的军队的代理主管格伦·费恩也被指派监督2万亿美元的经济刺激计划,该计划旨在拯救美国免于因无限期隔离而导致的经济崩溃。

“我认为人们不应该低估这对美国的威胁有多严重,”莫告诉记者新闻周刊。

“这不仅仅是一场公共健康危机,”他补充道。“这也是一场经济危机,显然现在它正在演变成一场金融危机,这场危机不是由COVID-19直接造成的,就像人们不是直接死于COVID-19,而是因为COVID-19加剧的预先存在的情况。”

Statista提供的图表显示了新冠状病毒截至3月27日的全球传播情况。921 000多人受灾,其中192 000多人已经康复,46 200多人死亡。

上述图形由提供Statista

AS U.S. STRUGGLES TO FIGHT CORONAVIRUS, CHINA, RUSSIA SEE OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN GLOBAL POWER

China and Russia are using the coronavirus pandemic to position themselves as world leaders while the United States turns its focus to domestic matters to battle the infectious disease, experts on geopolitical affairs and a senior U.S. intelligence official briefed on the matter told Newsweek.

This scramble to mitigate the spread of the virus, which is expected to soon infect up to a million people worldwide, could hinder the U.S.' ability to respond to international calls for help, a senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Newsweek—leaving a potential void where Washington could have stepped in. "China and Russia aim to fill that void, even at the costs of their own readiness," the official said.

"Both adversaries are playing the long-term game," the official added. Beijing and Moscow, the official, explained, "will advance attempts to undermine U.S. efforts to maintain strategic partnerships and alliances by providing essential medical equipment, PPE, and tests to countries with underdeveloped or overwhelmed medical systems, while pointing out that the United States is unable to respond due to their own incompetence and inability to handle a pandemic."

The official, who was familiar with an internal Central Intelligence Agency report that discussed a potential global power shift, also warned of unrest that could ensue in countries around the world. That, combined with internal predictions that the pandemic could extend beyond 2020, gives China and Russia further leverage to elevate their positions on the world stage.

The CIA declined to comment when contacted by Newsweek.

The pandemic is sure to create global economic upheaval. The United Nations warned Wednesday that this, along with "the risk that it contributes to enhanced instability, enhanced unrest, and enhanced conflict are things that make us believe that this is the most challenging crisis we have faced since the Second World War."

An armed gendarme stands guard next to an Antonov 124 aircraft of Russian air charter service company Volga-Dnepr Airlines as it delivers 10 million face masks ordered by France from China at the Paris-Vatry Airport in Bussy-Lettree, March 30. The French government has ordered a billion face masks, mainly from China, but warned that surging worldwide demand for protective equipment means they might not arrive soon enough for medical workers currently facing shortages.

Already, China and Italy have weathered the worst of the disease, and as of Wednesday, about 200,000 COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the United States, more than anywhere else in the world. These include more than 4,300 U.S. deaths—or more U.S. casualties than the 9/11 attacks or the 18-plus-year war in Afghanistan that followed them. The U.S. also finds itself dangerously low on critical medical supplies such as PPE, short for personal protective equipment, and ventilators, a device that breathes for patients too weak to do so themselves. The Trump administration has projected fatalities to reach between 100,000 and 240,000 by August.

As COVID-19 tests global resolve, the idea of the U.S. being the world's sole superpower is also challenged. Washington's ability to support other countries may be severely limited by the country's struggle to contain its own outbreak that will require a massive mobilization of military, medical and monetary resources, the senior U.S. intelligence official said.

"I believe the U.S. should exhaust all means possible to mitigate the spread of the virus domestically and globally, as the impacts transcend just our population," the senior U.S. intelligence official told Newsweek. "In a post-American, globalized economy, the virus is disrupting imports and exports, the flow of essential foods and goods, and will ultimately impact our national security with our military readiness abroad and home."

Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia, two men who may potentially rule for life due to careful constitutional changes, appear to be enthusiastic to fill this gap during the U.S.' time of need.

"Russia and China have both demonstrated opportunistic foreign policy initiatives in moving to occupy space made available by America's retreat from its post-World War II leadership," Douglas London, a former CIA Clandestine Service senior operations officer who now teaches at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies, told Newsweek.

"The COVID-19 pandemic tests America's already-strained international relationships undermined by Trump's 'America First' doctrine while further narrowing Washington's focus on the domestic health and economic crisis," London added. "Although Russia and China cannot ignore their peoples' grievances, as autocracies, neither contends with an open society, free press or legitimate elections that might facilitate a credible threat to their power."

Beijing has acknowledged its desire to make itself known. At a press conference Thursday, Chinese Senior Colonel Ren Guoqiang said: "China is actively engaging in international cooperation and providing as much help as possible to other countries and international organizations."

And Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova on Thursday described Russia's presence in Italy as "the apogee of isolation, the apotheosis of 'the Russian threat,' the anatomy of 'the Kremlin's hand'" in a Facebook post.

The U.S. also has not abandoned the international community. Pompeo too announced Thursday that the U.S. was devoting nearly $274 million in emergency health and humanitarian funding to support the 64 most at-risk countries in the world. "Our leadership in the COVID-19 response is another example of how America—our government, our businesses and organizations, and our people—continues to be the world's greatest humanitarians," Pompeo said in a statement.

But China and Russia's campaigns also have extended to U.S.-led NATO Western military alliance members such as Italy, which has suffered more COVID-19-related deaths than any other country to date. To help alleviate the disaster, Russian specialist troops have been deployed to the country's northern half and China has dispatched medical personnel and equipment in recent weeks. In neighboring NATO-member France, a Russian Antonov-124 delivered 10 million face masks ordered from China on Monday.

Chinese assistance has reached a number of European nations, as well as countries across Africa, Latin America and other parts of Asia.

Although several countries have complained of faulty equipment sent by Chinese and Russian companies, both Beijing and Moscow continue to receive requests for help from around the world. The U.S. has expressed wariness about China and Russia's intentions in responding to these pleas.

However, a State Department spokesperson told Newsweekthat U.S. officials "welcome high-quality, transparent, no-strings-attached contributions from all donors to further catalyze global response efforts underway."

Andy Mok, a fellow at the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, said that many European countries already count on China as a top trading partner. He said China's proactive response to COVID-19 could also prove to be an "important" factor in shaping Europe's already-shifting relationship with Beijing.

"Some people seek greatness, others have it thrust upon them," Mok told Newsweek. "If we kind of paraphrase that, there are many countries that are struggling with COVID-19 now, they are short of material resources as well as expertise, China has been stepping up."

"If there is a need and someone is filling it, then I think then naturally they are viewed differently and in a more positive light," he added. "It seems to be that this is the dynamic that is happening."

A Russian Ilyushin-76 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces with military specialists and equipment prepares to depart from the Chkalovsky military airfield for Italy to assist in the fight against coronavirus, March 22. Russia has since sent assistance to a number of countries, including the United States to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

In accepting support from China and Russia, the White House appears to acknowledge its leading rivals could play constructive roles in world affairs.

A senior Trump administration official confirmed to Newsweek that Russia was expected "to deliver a planeload of personal protection equipment and supplies." The official added: "We will put into immediate use any needed items that are FDA approved. Likewise, the United States is sending equipment and supplies to many other countries and will continue to do more as we are able."

The administration also argued its global military posture abroad remained unwavering.

"The U.S. does not view Russian or Chinese aid to European countries as a challenge to NATO. NATO remains strong and united during this time of crisis," Jonathan Hoffman, assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs, told Newsweek. "The United States will continue to offer COVID assistance to many of our NATO allies."

Newsweek reported earlier this month on the increasing impact the coronavirus was having on the U.S armed forces, forcing all of its global commands to cancel, postpone and adjust military certain exercises. Defense Secretary Mark Esper has since enacted even tighter controls on troop movements and has instructed local units to stop reporting positive COVID-19 cases "for operational security purposes" as U.S. Army Garrison Stuttgart in Germany said Sunday in a statement.

The U.S. has increasingly used its massive resources domestically, including widespread National Guard deployments and two hospital ships to help relieve overwhelmed medical centers in New York and Los Angeles. The acting director of the world's most well-funded military, Glenn Fine, has also been tapped to oversee the $2 trillion stimulus package designed to save the U.S. from economic collapse as a result of its indefinite quarantine.

"I think that one should not underestimate how serious a threat this is to the United States," Mok told Newsweek.

"It's not just a public health crisis," he added. "It's also an economic crisis, clearly now it's becoming a financial crisis that isn't directly caused by COVID-19 just as people die not directly from COVID-19 but because of pre-existing conditions that COVID-19 exacerbates."

A graphic provided by Statista shows the global spread of the new coronavirus as of early March 27. More than 921,000 people have been afflicted, over 192,000 of whom have recovered and over 46,200 of whom have died.

The above graphics were provided by Statista.

 

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