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11.37%!美股近百年一遇史诗级暴涨,炒股可抄底了?

2020-03-26 00:44  中国新闻网   - 

      持续动荡的全球金融市场24日迎来史诗级的暴涨,美股道指“百年一遇”地创下1933年以来的最大涨幅。不只股市,原油、黄金等亦纷纷暴力“大反攻”。

  全球股市暴涨,美股创87年最大单日涨幅

  当地时间3月24日,美股盘前,道指、纳指、标普500指数期货盘中继续扩大涨幅,相继涨超5%,触发交易限制。恢复交易后,三大股指继续上涨。

  随后美股大幅高开,道琼斯指数开盘涨1106.90点,涨幅5.95%,报19698.83点;纳斯达克指数开盘涨5.08%,报7209.52点;标普500指数开盘涨5.24%,报2354.65点。

3月24日,道指盘中走势。
3月24日,道指盘中走势。

  截至收盘,道指涨11.37%报20704.91点,大涨2112.98点,创1933年以来最大单日涨幅;标普500涨9.38%报2447.33点,创2008年10月以来最大单日涨幅;纳指涨8.12%报7417.86点。

  受美联储史无前例采取的无限量宽松政策的影响,美股开盘前已经收盘的亚太股市以及开始交易的欧洲股市均已提前暴力反弹。

  截至24日收盘,日经225指数收盘涨7.13%,创4年来最大单日涨幅;韩国综合指数涨8.6%,创2008年11月以来最大涨幅;恒生指数收盘涨4.46%,报22663.49点;A股沪指、深成指、创业板指涨逾2%。

  欧洲股市方面,欧洲斯托克600指数收涨7.5%,创2008年金融危机以来最大单日涨幅。德国DAX指数涨10.98%报9700.57点,法国CAC40指数涨8.39%报4242.7点,英国富时100指数涨9.05%报5446.01点。

欧股主要股指收盘情况。
欧股主要股指收盘情况。

  市场恐慌情绪“大放松”,原油、黄金继续暴涨

  24日,金融市场恐慌指数VIX收跌6.69%,报61.62,至此恐慌指数VIX连续两日跌超6%。此前恐慌指数VIX今年以来一度涨逾500%,最高报85.47点。

  国际油价“2连阳”,NYMEX原油期货收涨4.15%,报24.33美元/桶,连续第二个交易日收高。布伦特原油期货收涨3.35%,报30.27美元/桶,重回30美元上方。

  3月24日,黄金价格更是一天罕见暴涨了101.4美元,COMEX黄金涨幅高达6.47%,收于1669美元。上期所黄金期货一度涨停,A股黄金概念板块也掀起涨停潮。在黄金价格飙升的同时,黄金市场出现了十分罕见的流动性危机,3月24日中午,多家交易商出现报价异常、点差飙升、交易中断等现象。

  市场恐慌情绪大幅缓解下,美国国债收益率集体上涨,2年期美债收益率涨6个基点报0.39%,3年期美债收益率涨8.2个基点报0.426%,5年期美债收益率涨11个基点报0.529%,10年期美债收益率涨6.4个基点报0.851%,30年期美债收益率涨4.8个基点报1.397%。

  同时,美元流动性紧缺的压力得以释放。24日,美元指数跌0.64%报101.7867,欧元兑美元涨0.6%报1.079,英镑兑美元涨1.88%报1.1761,美元兑日元跌0.01%报111.23,离岸人民币兑美元涨346个基点报7.0852。

资料图。
资料图。

  为何如此疯狂上涨?

  有网友调侃,“看到这样的场面,不只巴菲特高兴,美国总统特朗普心里也肯定是美滋滋的。”

  因为就在前一个交易日,23日,道指跌3.04%、标普500指数跌2.93%,创美国总统特朗普2017年1月上任以来新低,而此前特朗普曾多次讲话宣传其“股市政绩”。

  全球股市,尤其是美股,24日为何如此疯狂上涨?

  记者梳理研究机构和外媒报道的观点显示,主要是两个原因,一是美联储23日宣布的无限量QE,等于明确地“告诉市场要多少钱我都给,你可以无限量、无限续杯量化宽松”,可以说,美联储货币宽松的力度已经超过了2008年金融危机时期。

  二是,市场对美国国会批准2万亿美元巨额财政刺激法案抱有乐观预期。此前上述经济刺激法案已两度在美国国会闯关失败。随后有美国媒体报道称,美国参议员舒默及财长姆努钦已与民主党领袖“几乎”就一项2万亿美元的经济刺激法案达成一致。

  另据外媒24日报道,作为该计划的最大反对派,美国众议院议长佩洛西也表示,她非常乐观地认为,国会将在接下来的几个小时内达成经济刺激协议。她称,所有人都同意应该完成刺激计划立法。

当地时间3月12日,一位戴口罩的民众走过纽约证券交易所。<a target='_blank'  data-cke-saved-href='http://www.chinanews.com/' href='http://www.chinanews.com/'>中新社</a>记者 廖攀 摄
当地时间3月12日,一位戴口罩的民众走过纽约证券交易所。中新社记者 廖攀 摄

  现在是抄底的时候?你抄底了吗?

  在全球股市暴力反弹后,不少投资者疑问,“这到底是筑底反弹,还是回光返照?”

  欧美市场此轮大跌最大的导火索是疫情在全球的迅速蔓延,很多分析机构认为,疫情出现转折时才是股市见底时候,但没人敢说转折点在哪。

  “这是典型的熊市走势特征,市场中并没有出现根本上的情绪的缓解和信心的重塑。” Rathbones投资管理公司首席投资官David Coombs称。摩根大通董事总经理Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou指出,当天的上涨“有很大程度的空头回补的因素”,会短期抬升股票价格。

  瑞士信贷周二发布研报指出,市场实现筑底反弹的关键是对疫情的控制。“一旦新增确诊病例触顶,市场将会很快站稳脚跟。仅仅依靠政府的救助措施还不足以帮助市场筑底。”

  约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据显示,截至北京时间25日早5时40分,美国累计确诊病例达53268人,累计死亡703例。据《纽约邮报》3月23日报道,近日美国总统特朗普的前国土安全顾问汤姆·博塞特(Tom Bossert)表示:“美国如今抗疫问题存在巨大问题,以现在的感染人数上涨速度,美国疫情将在两周之内迎来大暴发。”

  但据外媒报道,美国总统特朗普在接受福克斯新闻电视采访时表示,他正在考虑放宽对疫情的管控措施,希望美国在四月中旬以前可以做到"开放"。

  Merk Investments首席投资官Axel Merk表示,特朗普很快就会重启美国经济的消息不会让投资者感到高兴,他们仍然对疫情的不确定性及其造成的经济损失感到担忧。

  瑞银集团财富管理全球首席投资官马克·黑费尔认为,美国正在加快出台缓解疫情冲击的财政措施,但疫情防控措施的冲击现在仍然超过救助政策的影响。市场走势将取决于经济活动多久可以恢复正常和可以出台多少政策来限制企业破产和失业。

  古根海姆的全球首席投资官斯科特·麦纳得表示,“即使美国国会通过了所有必要的立法,市场也将在未来六个月内处于脆弱状态。根据国会将很快通过某些法案的期望而进行抄底,可能不是一种审慎的投资策略。”

  如果你是投资者,你会抄底吗?如果要抄底,你买啥?原油、黄金,还是股票?(完)

11.37%! Once in a century, the U.S. stock market has experienced epic level inflation. Can you copy the bottom of the stock market?
 

The global financial market, which has been in constant turmoil, experienced an epic surge on the 24th, with the U.S. stock index "once in a century" setting its biggest increase since 1933. Not only the stock market, but also crude oil, gold and so on.
 
The global stock market soared, and the U.S. stock market rose by the largest single day in 87 years
 
On March 24 local time, before the U.S. stock market, the futures of the Dow, NASDAQ and S & P 500 index continued to expand their gains in the intraday, rising more than 5% one after another, triggering trading restrictions. After the resumption of trading, the three major stock indexes continued to rise.
 
Then the U.S. stocks opened sharply higher, with the Dow Jones index up 1106.90 points, or 5.95%, to 19698.83, the NASDAQ up 5.08%, to 7209.52, and the S & P 500 up 5.24%, to 2354.65.
 
March 24, the Dow intraday trend.
March 24, the Dow intraday trend.
By the end of the day, the Dow was up 11.37% to 20704.91, up 2112.98, the biggest one-day increase since 1933; the S & P 500 was up 9.38% to 2447.33, the largest one-day increase since October 2008; the Nasdaq was up 8.12% to 7417.86.
 
Affected by the unprecedented unlimited easing policy adopted by the Federal Reserve, the Asia Pacific stock market that had closed before the opening of the US stock market and the European stock market that started trading had rebounded violently in advance.
 
By the end of 24 days, the Nikkei 225 index was up 7.13%, the biggest one-day increase in four years; the Korean composite index was up 8.6%, the biggest increase since November 2008; the Hang Seng index was up 4.46%, at 22663.49; the A-share Shanghai index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index were up more than 2%.
 
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index rose 7.5%, its biggest one-day gain since the 2008 financial crisis. Germany's DAX index rose 10.98% to 9700.57, France's CAC40 index rose 8.39% to 4242.7, and Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 9.05% to 5446.01.
 
Closing of major European indexes.
Closing of major European indexes.
Market panic "relax", crude oil and gold continue to soar
 
On the 24th, VIX, the financial market panic index, fell 6.69% to 61.62, after falling more than 6% for two consecutive days. Before that, the VIX rose more than 500% this year to 85.47.
 
NYMEX crude oil futures rose 4.15% to US $24.33/barrel, closing higher for the second consecutive trading day. Brent crude oil futures rose 3.35% to $30.27 a barrel, back above $30.
 
On March 24, the price of gold rose by $101.4 in a rare day, while Comex gold rose 6.47% to close at $1669. The gold futures of the previous exchange once rose and stopped, and the concept plate of A-share gold also rose and stopped. At the same time of gold price soaring, there was a very rare liquidity crisis in the gold market. At the noon of March 24, a number of dealers showed abnormal quotation, sharp gap and trading interruption.
 
With the relief of market panic, the yield of US Treasury bonds rose collectively. The yield of 2-year US Treasury bonds rose 6 basis points to 0.39%, the yield of 3-year US Treasury bonds rose 8.2 basis points to 0.426%, the yield of 5-year US Treasury bonds rose 11 basis points to 0.529%, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose 6.4 basis points to 0.851%, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds rose 4.8 basis points to 1.397%.
 
At the same time, the pressure of US dollar liquidity shortage was released. The dollar index fell 0.64% to 101.7867, the euro rose 0.6% to 1.079, the U.K. pound rose 1.88% to 1.1761, the U.S. dollar fell 0.01% to 111.23 and the offshore yuan rose 346 basis points to 7.0852 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday.
 
Information map.
Information map.
Why is it so crazy?
 
Some netizens joked, "it's not only Buffett who is happy to see such a scene, but also trump, the president of the United States, who is certainly happy."
 
On the previous trading day, the Dow fell 3.04% and the S & P 500 fell 2.93% on the 23rd, a new low since President trump took office in January 2017. Before that, trump had made many speeches to publicize his "performance in the stock market".
 
Why did the global stock market, especially the US stock market, rise so crazily on the 24th?
 
The reporter combed the views of research institutions and foreign media reports, and showed that there are two main reasons. One is that the unlimited QE announced by the Federal Reserve on the 23rd is to explicitly "tell the market how much money I will give you, and you can indefinitely and indefinitely renew quantitative easing". It can be said that the strength of monetary easing of the Federal Reserve has exceeded the financial crisis in 2008.
 
Second, the market is optimistic about the US Congress's approval of the US $2 trillion massive fiscal stimulus bill. The stimulus bill has twice failed in the US Congress. Later, US media reported that US Senator Schumer and Treasury Secretary manuchin had reached an agreement with Democratic leaders "almost" on a $2 trillion economic stimulus bill.
 
As the biggest opposition to the plan, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also said she was very optimistic that Congress would reach an economic stimulus agreement in the next few hours, foreign media reported Tuesday. She said everyone agreed that stimulus legislation should be completed.
 
A masked man walks past the New York Stock Exchange on March 12 local time. < a target = ''u blank'data-cke-saved-href ='http://www.chinanews.com/' http://www.chinanews.com/ ', photographed by Liao pan, reporter of China News Agency
A masked man walks past the New York Stock Exchange on March 12 local time. Photographed by Liao pan, reporter of China News Agency
Now is the time to copy the bottom? Did you copy the bottom?
 
After the violent rebound in the global stock market, many investors asked, "is this a bottoming rebound or a reflection?"
 
European and American cities

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