俄罗斯拒绝应沙特阿拉伯的要求而减少石油出口，而欧佩克则导致周五油价跌幅为五年来最大，这使美国经济再度头疼，因为市场已经因油价大起大落。正在进行的冠状病毒（COVID-19）爆发。
现在，一些石油专家预测一年内每桶价格将低至20美元，而俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）则表示，俄罗斯有信心抵御持续的大幅降价。一些分析家认为，俄罗斯的努力是为了打击美国页岩油生产商，并反对针对连接俄罗斯和德国的Nord Stream 2天然气管道的美国制裁。
国营智囊机构莫斯科世界经济与国际关系研究所所长亚历山大·丹金（Alexander Dynkin）对彭博社说：“克里姆林宫已决定牺牲欧佩克+组织，以制止美国页岩油生产商，并惩罚美国破坏北溪2号。” 。
RT报道，普京在周日的一次财政和能源部长会议上说：“我们需要为不同的情况做好准备。” 他说，目前尚不清楚局势将持续多久，但对俄罗斯经济可以应对任何后果表示信心。
地缘政治期货主席乔治·弗里德曼（George Friedman）告诉《新闻周刊》，俄罗斯拒绝减产与打击冠状病毒的经济影响更多有关，并且无意直接瞄准美国。
弗里德曼说：“只有在价格迅速上涨的情况下，俄罗斯才能采取沙特关于减产以提高价格的建议。” “但是鉴于冠状病毒的下行压力，我认为俄罗斯人认为降低价格不会稳定价格，因此拒绝了沙特的要求。这并不是要伤害美国，而是要保护俄罗斯经济。”
上周五局势升级，因为俄罗斯拒绝欧佩克领导人的意愿减少石油产量，认为此类措施不必要地使美国沙特阿拉伯受益，美国沙特阿拉伯敦促目前更依赖于维持石油价格的现状，俄罗斯与欧佩克一起削减石油。
在特朗普领导下，美国已超过沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯，成为世界上最大的石油生产国，这主要是由于压裂问题的扩大所致。沙特阿拉伯曾试图淹没石油市场并大幅度降低价格以维持其在2014年的主导地位，但未果。但事实证明，美国的生产比沙特阿拉伯的预期更具韧性。
一些分析家认为，俄罗斯可能同样低估或误解了美国石油业将如何应对。
“尽管2014年末（由于沙特阿拉伯泛滥成灾）开始的油价暴跌最终导致数百个页岩油生产商宣布第11章破产，但这一过程的最终结果是，这些公司中的大多数都进行了重组，背少得多的债务负担，”大卫·布莱克蒙，独立能源分析师和顾问，写了福布斯。
他说：“该战略也未能认识到，大多数生产商已经在2020年剩余时间内及以后对大部分股票生产进行了套期保值。”
但是俄罗斯的努力必将对石油经济产生影响。
“将在2020年达到20美元的油价，”曾担任埃克森美孚公司高级中东顾问，现任美国战略公司Dragoman Ventures首席执行官的Ali Khedery周日在推特上写道：“巨大的地缘政治影响，”他补充说。
如果价格下跌幅度达到Khedery的预测，那么降幅将是今天的一半以上，这将使石油生产商的收入大大减少。由于冠状病毒已经在股市上造成严重破坏，特朗普可能会发现，随着他的连任竞选的进行，吹捧他的经济成就更加困难。
总统的竞选连任并未立即回应置评请求。
随着11月大选临近，共和党人和特朗普一直指出GDP持续增长，健康的就业机会和蓬勃发展的股市。他们争辩说，只有特朗普能够保持经济向前发展。
但批评人士指出，总统未能实现他所承诺的4％至5％的经济增长，并指出，在前总统巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）任职的最后四年中，经济增长明显好于上个季度。此外，国家债务和赤字继续大幅增加，特朗普的标志性减税措施大大减少了收入，同时主要使最富有的美国人和公司受益。
尽管俄罗斯还将受到油价大幅下跌的影响，但在感觉到痛苦之前，它似乎还有一定的回旋余地。沙特阿拉伯需要约83美元的价格来平衡预算，而俄罗斯只需要约42美元的价格即可。同时，页岩油生产商花费更多的精力来开采石油，并且平均收支平衡为每桶68美元。
根据达拉斯联邦储备银行的一份报告，在过去的十年中，页岩油产量为当前美国GDP增长贡献了约10％。石油价格暴跌可能损害页岩油生产商并导致经济后果。
至于俄罗斯，该国领导人正在表达对他们的经济能够承受油价上涨的信心。俄罗斯财政部长安兰·西卢安诺夫（Anton Siluanov）上周宣称，即使油价低至30美元也可以。他说：“我们将为四年的支出提供资金，而不会出现问题。”
PUTIN TARGETS U.S. FRACKING WITH OIL PRICE WAR, IN NEW THREAT TO TRUMP'S ELECTION-YEAR ECONOMY
Russia has declined to reduce oil exports at the request of Saudi Arabia along with OPEC that led to the biggest decline in oil prices in five years on Friday--causing another headache for the American economy as markets have already seen significant ups and downs due to the ongoing Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Now some oil experts are predicting barrel prices as low as $20 within the year, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has voiced confidence that his country can weather out a sustained and significant price reduction. Some analysts have argued that Russia's efforts are intended to counter U.S. shale producers and push back against U.S. sanctions targeting the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that connects Russia and Germany
"The Kremlin has decided to sacrifice OPEC+ to stop U.S. shale producers and punish the U.S. for messing with Nord Stream 2," Alexander Dynkin, president of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, a state-run think tank, told Bloomberg.
Putin told a meeting of finance and energy ministers on Sunday that "we need to be prepared for different scenarios," RT reported. He said that it was unclear how long the situation would continue, but expressed confidence that the Russian economy could deal with any fall out.
George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, told Newsweek that Russia's refusal to cut production had more to do with combatting the economic impact of coronavirus and was not intended to directly target the U.S.
"The Saudi recommendation for cutting production in order to increase prices is something Russia could do only if prices rapidly increase," Friedman said. "But given the downward pressure from the coronavirus, I think the Russians calculated that cutting prices wouldn't stabilize them and refused the Saudi request. It was not intended to hurt the U.S. but to try to protect the Russian economy."
The situation escalated on Friday, as Russia refused to reduce oil output against the wishes of OPEC leaders, arguing that such measures unnecessarily benefited the U.S. Saudi Arabia, which is currently more dependent on maintaining the status quo when it comes to oil pricing, had urged Russia to join with OPEC to make the cuts.
Under Trump, the U.S. has surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's biggest oil producing nation, largely spurred by the expansion of fracking. Saudi Arabia had tried unsuccessfully to flood the oil market and reduce prices drastically to maintain its dominance back in 2014. But U.S. production proved more resilient than the Saudis anticipated.
Some analysts are suggesting that Russia may similarly be underestimating or misunderstanding how the U.S. oil industry will respond.
"While the crash in oil prices that began in late 2014 [due to Saudi Arabia flooding the market] did ultimately result in hundreds of shale producers declaring Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the net result of that process is that most of those companies reorganize themselves and come back with far less debt load," David Blackmon, an independent energy analyst and consultant, wrote for Forbes.
"The strategy also fails to recognize that most producers have already put hedges in place for most of their equity production through the remainder of 2020 and beyond," he noted.
But the Russian effort will certainly have an impact on the oil economy.
″$20 oil in 2020 is coming," Ali Khedery, who formerly worked as Exxon Mobil's senior Middle East advisor and is now the CEO of U.S.-based strategy firm Dragoman Ventures, tweeted on Sunday. "Huge geopolitical implications," he added.
A price dip of as much as Khedery is predicting would be a drop of more than half of what it is today, which would cut deep into oil producers' pockets. With coronavirus already reeking havoc on the stock market, Trump may find it to be more difficult to tout his economic achievements as his re-election campaign moves forward.
The president's re-election campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Republicans and Trump have consistently pointed to sustained GDP growth, healthy job creation and a booming stock market, as the November election approaches. They have argued that only Trump is positioned to maintain the economy moving forward.
But critics note that the president has failed to deliver the 4 to 5 percent economic growth he promised, pointing out that there were significantly better quarters of economic growth during former President Barack Obama's last four years in office. Additionally, the national debt and deficit has continued to rise substantially, with Trump's signature tax cuts having greatly reduced revenues, while primarily benefiting the wealthiest Americans and corporations.
While Russia would also be impacted by a significant decline in oil prices, it appears to have some room to maneuver before it feels the pain. Saudi Arabia needs a price of about $83 to balance its budget, while Russia only needs a price of about $42. Meanwhile, shale oil producers spend more to extract oil and generally break even with an average price of $68 per barrel.
Shale production has contributed about 10 percent to the current U.S. GDP growth over the past decade, according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. A collapse in the price of oil could damage shale producers and lead to economic fallout.
As for Russia, the country's leaders are voicing confidence that their economy can withstand tanking prices. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov asserted last week that even prices as low as $30 would be fine. "We will finance our spending for four years without problems," he said.
