以色列准备先发制人地打击伊朗在中东最强大的伙伴之一，作为其向其长期对手施压的新战略的一部分。伊朗伊斯兰共和国警告说，如果它成为目标，将会遭到严重的报复。新闻周刊已经学会了。
一名以色列军方官员告诉记者，这些计划是以色列军方名为“势头”的五年重组战略的一部分，旨在更好地对抗该地区的对手，尤其是伊朗新闻周刊。这位不愿透露姓名的官员说，主要目标之一是破坏黎巴嫩什叶派穆斯林真主党运动开发精确制导弹药的努力，这将使该组织在战斗中获得战略优势。
这位以色列官员告诉记者:“如果你想知道中东下一轮暴力或升级的最大可能性在哪里——这是一个严重的问题——那么我的钱就在我们试图抢占真主党的精确制导弹药制造能力上。”新闻周刊。
这位官员补充道:“我认为，下一次你将听到以色列的战斗事件将是关于真主党的精确制导弹药项目，”他指的是装备有大约13万枚火箭的黎巴嫩团体，称其为圣城部队的“皇冠上的宝石”，是伊朗精英革命卫队的远征分支，也是以色列新反伊朗愿景的主要焦点。
然而，如果以色列越界，一名不愿透露姓名的伊朗官员发誓，该国将再次以武力回应。
“美国对伊朗采取了行动，我们做出了回应，”伊朗官员告诉记者新闻周刊。“如果以色列政权对伊朗采取行动，我们必须做出强烈回应，而且我们会这样做。”
作为对美国刺杀魅力非凡的圣城部队指挥官的回应少将·卡西姆·索莱马尼在巴格达，伊朗用一系列导弹袭击了伊拉克的美军基地，造成100多名士兵受伤。除了圣城部队维持着延伸到黎巴嫩、伊拉克、叙利亚和其他地区的盟友网络之外，伊朗还拥有中东最大和最先进的导弹武库，最近的袭击显示了前所未有的能力。
以色列和伊朗官员都没有提供他们未来行动的细节，但表示——最终——这些行动可能是防御性的。以色列的新计划表明，尽管它与伊朗争论了几十年，但并未引发重大对抗，该地区紧张局势的恶化可能会重塑局面，或造成严重的误判。
2月16日，伊朗政府在靠近以色列边境的黎巴嫩南部村庄马伦拉斯(Maroun al-Ras)建造的伊朗花园公园里展示了一幅巨大的剪影，画中是伊朗已故革命卫队圣城军少将·卡西姆·索莱尼(Quds Force Qassem Soleimani)，他在2020年1月初巴格达国际机场附近的一次美国无人机袭击中丧生，身后飘扬着一面巴勒斯坦国旗，上面写着阿拉伯语“我们将在耶路撒冷祈祷”。
自1979年伊斯兰革命以来，美国和以色列与伊朗的关系在很大程度上被定义为敌对关系。那次伊斯兰革命推翻了西方支持的君主制，并让什叶派神职人员掌权。自1948年建国以来，以色列已经在一系列战争中面对阿拉伯国家，随后巴勒斯坦人大规模流离失所，但伊朗自此成为该国的主要敌人，尤其是在圣城部队——以有争议的圣城耶路撒冷命名——于20世纪80年代在黎巴嫩获得影响力之后。
真主党是在黎巴嫩15年的宗派内战期间成立的，并很快成为一支强大的力量，抗击以色列的入侵，最初的目的是击溃巴勒斯坦突击队。以色列和真主党将在未来几年继续进行两场主要战争和多次跨境冲突，最近一次是在去年8月。
在最近一次交流之前，以色列似乎有大约48个小时的时间在四条战线上攻击伊朗支持的团体。
在短短两天内，以色列成为真主党办公室附近无人机袭击未遂和对解放巴勒斯坦人民阵线(黎巴嫩总指挥部所在地)空袭的主要嫌疑人，这次袭击造成叙利亚两名真主党成员死亡，在边境城市伊拉克的卡希姆暗杀了一名人民动员部队成员，并以加沙地带的巴勒斯坦伊斯兰运动哈马斯阵地为目标。
以色列只是正式承认其在叙利亚和加沙地带的袭击上的签字，在叙利亚，据称策划了一场圣城部队“杀手无人机”阴谋，在加沙地带，最近发射了火箭。和...说话新闻周刊这位以色列官员只会说，以色列军队“正在收集情报，监视伊朗和伊朗的忠诚部队，伊朗在伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩和其他地方的附属部队。”
尽管以色列官员认为美国对“非常有统治力、魅力和影响力的”苏莱曼尼的杀戮是“一种稳定行为”，可能会削弱伊朗的抵抗轴心，但种种迹象表明圣城部队会继续甚至扩大对海外合作伙伴的支持。这位以色列官员举例说，该部队将准将将军穆罕默德·赫加齐提升为二把手，接替取代索莱尼的准将·伊斯马尔·卡尼将军。
以色列军方称赫加齐是德黑兰对真主党及其精确制导武器项目的关键人物。这位以色列官员告诉记者，他的加入“表明圣城军多么希望继续关注真主党”新闻周刊他还强调，圣城部队正在努力从伊朗通过伊拉克向叙利亚转移武器，并建立“针对以色列的前沿行动基地”
2月27日，在与叙利亚接壤的被以色列占领的戈兰高地，一名以色列士兵正在查看他的狙击步枪的瞄准镜。此前有报道称，一架以色列无人驾驶飞机在库奈特拉地区的叙利亚南部村庄哈德袭击了一辆汽车。以色列指责伊朗及其盟友民兵组织从有争议的边界另一侧发动火箭、导弹和无人机袭击。
以色列在叙利亚的行动已经成为半经常性的事件。周四有报道称，又有两起针对被占领戈兰高地以外不明目标的可疑袭击。
以色列军方官员告诉记者新闻周刊到目前为止，以色列已经对叙利亚境内的伊朗军事目标实施了250多次打击，并挫败了来自这个饱受九年内战蹂躏的邻国的六次伊朗袭击——四次使用火箭，一次分别涉及弹道导弹和一架装载炸药的无人机。
这位以色列官员告诉记者:“伊朗拥有强大的军事能力，伊朗正试图让这些能力靠近以色列。”新闻周刊他承认伊朗已经证明有能力跨越距离，但同时也承认以色列已经建立了防御和威慑，以应对像上个月针对索莱尼遇刺事件袭击美国士兵那样的袭击。
“我们确实注意到了美国军队对伊拉克基地的袭击，”以色列官员说。“但是，伊朗人以前也曾试图袭击以色列，顺便说一句，每次他们试图袭击，都造成了巨大的物质损失，有相当多的伊朗人被装在棺材里运回伊朗，这就是问题的关键。”
尽管如此，这位官员表示，以色列修改后的战略设想了一场多战区战争，同时打击来自黎巴嫩、加沙、叙利亚的对手，“甚至很有可能从更远的伊朗发射导弹，距离近1000公里。”
在这场即将到来的潜在冲突中，没有任何一方表示有兴趣发起一场冲突，而且所有各方都有不这样做的战略动机。美国、以色列、伊朗及其盟友都表示愿意避免这样的战争，尽管他们认为这正成为一项越来越困难的任务。
这位伊朗官员表示:“我们处于防御模式，我们明白与美国和其他国家的冲突不符合我们的利益，每个人都是输家，包括美国、伊朗和该地区。”。
这位伊朗官员最近被告知新闻周刊“在过去的30年里，该地区经历了三次战争，两伊战争，1991年美国对伊拉克的第一次战争和2003年美国对伊拉克的第二次战争，还有美国在阿富汗的战争，持续了18，19年。”现在，这位官员说，“该地区受够了冲突，我们知道冲突的影响，但同时，我们必须做好准备。”
根据搜房中心的估计，国家统计局提供的图表显示了伊朗各种导弹的射程。伊斯兰共和国拥有中东最大和最先进的导弹武库。
尽管以色列官员称索莱尼是整个中东地区“非常消极和破坏稳定的努力”的幕后策划者，但伊朗官员认为被杀的指挥官是“打击恐怖主义和伊斯兰国(ISIS)的一个重要因素”，伊斯兰国(Islamic State)也被称为激进组织。
圣城军和它的抵抗轴心早期的重要角色在伊拉克、叙利亚和黎巴嫩与伊斯兰国的战斗中。尽管自封的伊斯兰国圣战者很少以以色列为目标，但他们席卷了数万平方英里的土地，并一度对数百万人实施极端保守的统治，随后被一系列地方和国际势力彻底摧毁，其中包括美国、伊朗和俄罗斯支持的联盟。
随着伊斯兰国(ISIS)大多被击败，索莱尼(Soleimani)遇刺事件仍在中东回荡，德黑兰方面寻求在该地区凝聚盟友，为一场很可能在熟悉的黎巴嫩战场引发的潜在冲突做好准备。
一名真主党代表提到，就日益紧张的局势进行了接触新闻周刊哈桑·纳斯鲁拉秘书长对此事的最新评论。这位黎巴嫩领导人上周在一次电视讲话中宣布，索莱尼的死，以及美国和以色列最近的其他被视为破坏稳定的举动，“将我们带到了抵抗轴心自身目的的一个新阶段”。
“今天，我们面临新的和不可避免的对抗，”纳斯鲁拉宣称。
ISRAEL REVEALS PLAN TO ATTACK IRAN'S ALLIES, BUT IRAN IS READY TO FIGHT BACK
Israel is prepared to preemptively strike one of Iran's most powerful partners in the Middle East as part of its new strategy to pressure its longtime adversary, and the Islamic Republic is warning of severe consequences in retaliation if it is targeted, Newsweek has learned.
The plans come as part of the Israeli military's five-year restructuring strategy called "Momentum" that aims to better counter adversaries across the region, particularly Iran, an Israeli military official told Newsweek. One of the primary goals, the official said under the condition of anonymity, is to disrupt the Lebanese Shiite Muslim Hezbollah movement's efforts to develop precision-guided munitions that would give the group a strategic edge in combat.
"If you want to know where the highest probability of the next round of violence or escalation in the Middle East will be—a serious one—then my money is on us trying to preempt Hezbollah's precision-guided munitions manufacturing capabilities," the Israeli official told Newsweek.
"I think that the next time you will hear about combat events in Israel will be with regards to Hezbollah's precision-guided munitions project," the official added, referring to the Lebanese group armed with some 130,000 rockets as "the crown jewel" of the Quds Force, the expeditionary branch of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards and the primary focus of Israel's new counter-Iran vision.
If Israel crosses the line, however, an Iranian official also speaking under the condition of anonymity vowed the country would again answer with force.
"The United States took action against Iran, we responded," the Iranian official told Newsweek. "If the Israeli regime takes actions against Iran, we have to respond strongly and we will."
In response to the U.S.' assassination of charismatic Quds Force commander Major General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad, Iran assaulted Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops with a barrage of missiles, injuring more than 100 soldiers. In addition to the Quds Force maintaining a network of allies that extends to Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and beyond, Iran also commands the largest and most advanced missile arsenal in the Middle East and the latest strike demonstrated unprecedented capabilities.
Neither the Israeli nor the Iranian official provided specifics about what their future operations might look like, but indicated that—ultimately—such moves would likely be defensive in nature. Israel's new plan signals that although it has sparred with Iran for decades without sparking a major confrontation, worsening tensions across the region could reshape the calculus or create a critical miscalculation.
A giant cutout depicting Iran's late Revolutionary Guard Quds Force Major General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a U.S. drone strike near Baghdad International Airport in early January 2020, with a Palestinian flag flying behind him bearing the Arabic words "we will pray in Jerusalem," on display at the Garden of Iran Park, built by the Iranian government, in the southern Lebanese village of Maroun al-Ras near the border with Israel, February 16.
The U.S. and Israel's relationship with Iran has been largely defined by hostility since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that deposed a West-backed monarchy and brought Shiite clerics to power. Israel had already faced Arab states in a series of wars since its 1948 founding and the mass displacement of Palestinians that followed, but Iran has since become the country's primary nemesis, especially after the Quds Force—named after the disputed holy city of Jerusalem—gained leverage in Lebanon in the 1980s.
Hezbollah was formed during Lebanon's 15-year sectarian civil war and quickly established itself as a formidable force fighting an Israeli invasion initially intended to rout Palestinian commandos. Israel and Hezbollah would go on over the years to fight two major wars and numerous cross-border clashes, most recently last August.
That latest exchange followed a roughly 48-hour period in which Israel appeared to attack Iran-supported groups on four fronts.
In a matter of two days, Israel became the prime suspect behind an attempted drone attack near Hezbollah offices and airstrikes against the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine—General Command sites in Lebanon, a raid that killed two Hezbollah operatives in Syria, the assassination of a Popular Mobilization Forces figure on the border city of Al-Qaim in Iraq and the targeting of Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas positions in the Gaza Strip.
Israel only officially acknowledged its signature on the strikes in Syria, where a Quds Force "killer drone" plot was allegedly being hatched, and in the Gaza Strip, from which rockets had recently been fired. Speaking to Newsweek, the Israeli official would only state that Israeli forces "are collecting intelligence, monitoring Iranian and Iranian loyalists troops, Iranian-affiliated troops in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere."
Although the Israeli official regarded the U.S.' slaying of the "very dominant, charismatic and influential" Soleimani as "a stabilizing act" that could potentially weaken Iran's Axis of Resistance, signs indicate that the Quds Force would continue or even expand support to its partners abroad. The Israeli official pointed as an example to the unit's promotion of Brigadier General Mohammad Hejazi to second-in-command, succeeding Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, who replaced Soleimani.
Hejazi is alleged by the Israeli military to be Tehran's point person to Hezbollah and its precision-guided munitions project. His accession "indicates how much the Quds Force wants to continue focusing on Hezbollah," the Israeli official told Newsweek, also highlighting ongoing Quds Force efforts to transfer weapons from Iran through Iraq to Syria and to establish "forward operating bases against Israel."
An Israeli soldier looks through the scope of his sniper rifle in the Israel-occupied Golan Heights on the border with Syria, February 27, after a reported Israeli drone struck a vehicle in the Syrian southern village of Hader, in Quneitra region. Israel accuses Iran and its allied militias of staging rocket, missile and drone attacks from across the disputed boundary.
Israeli operations in Syria have become a semi-regular occurrence. Reports emerged Thursday of two more suspected attacks against unspecified targets just beyond the occupied Golan Heights.
The Israeli military official told Newsweek that Israel has so far conducted more than 250 strikes against Iranian military targets in Syria and has thwarted six Iranian attacks—four utilizing rockets and one each involving a ballistic missile and an explosive-laden drone—from the neighboring nation tattered by nine years of civil war.
"Iran has significant military capabilities, what Iran is trying to do is to bring these capabilities close to Israel," the Israeli official told Newsweek, acknowledging that Iran has proven capable of overcoming the distance but also that Israel has established both defense and deterrence against such strikes as those that hit U.S. soldiers in response to Soleimani's assassination last month.
"We definitely took notice of the attack on the Iraqi base with American troops," the Israeli official said. "But again, the Iranians have tried to attack Israel before and, each time they tried to attack, by the way, there was substantial material damage and there were quite a lot of Iranians who were shipped back to Iran in coffins, and that was the point."
Still, the official said Israel's revamped strategy envisions a multi-theater war simultaneously taking on opponents from Lebanon, Gaza, Syria and "even the high probability of missiles being fired from further away in Iran, almost 1000 kilometers."
No party to such a potential upcoming conflict has expressed interest in initiating one and all have strategic motives to not do so. The U.S., Israel, Iran and its allies have all expressed a willingness to avoid such a war, even if they felt this was becoming an increasingly difficult task.
"We are in a defensive mode, we understand that conflict with the United States and others is not in our interest, everyone loses, including the U.S., Iran and the region," the Iranian official said.
This Iranian official recently told Newsweek that "in the last 30 years the region has witnessed three wars, the Iran-Iraq War, the first U.S. war with Iraq in 1991 and the second U.S. war on Iraq in 2003, there is also the U.S. war in Afghanistan that has gone on for the past 18,19 years." Now, the official said, "The region is fed up with conflict, and we know the effects of a conflict, but at the same time, we have to prepare."
A graphic provided by Statista shows the range of some of Iran's various missiles, as estimated by the Soufan Center. The Islamic Republic has the largest and most advanced missile arsenal of the Middle East.
While the Israeli official described Soleimani as the mastermind behind a "very negative and destabilizing effort" across the Middle East, the Iranian official regarded the slain commander as "an instrumental element in the fight against terrorism and ISIS," also known as the Islamic State militant group.
The Quds Force and its Axis of Resistance played an early, crucial role in the battle against ISIS in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Though the self-styled caliphists rarely targeted Israel, ISIS jihadis swept through tens of thousands of square miles of land and once enforced their ultraconservative rule over millions before being decimated by an array of local and international powers that included coalitions backed by the U.S. and Iran, along with Russia.
With ISIS mostly defeated and Soleimani's assassination still reverberating around the Middle East, Tehran seeks to rally its allies across the region to prepare for a potential conflict that may very well be sparked in the familiar battleground of Lebanon.
Contacted about the rising tensions, a Hezbollah representative referred Newsweek to Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's latest remarks on the matter. The Lebanese leader declared during a televised address last week that Soleimani's death, along with other recent U.S. and Israeli moves viewed as destabilizing, "brought us to a new stage" in the Axis of Resistance's own purpose.
"Today, we face a new and inevitable confrontation," Nasrallah proclaimed.
