南卡罗来纳州众议院少数党领袖托德·卢瑟福警告说，如果乔·拜登周六在该州初选中没有获得第一名，他的2020年竞选活动将“结束”。

上周四支持前纽约市长迈克·布隆伯格的立法黑人核心小组成员告诉记者新闻周刊汤姆·施泰尔是前副总统拜登赢得南卡罗来纳州初选的“最大威胁”，他认为这位亿万富翁在该州庞大的非裔美国人社区所关心的问题上“没有错过任何机会”。

卢瑟福还质疑拜登参选的可能性，称他认为这位前副总统是一个“了不起的家伙”，但认为他的个性“现在还不足以击败唐纳德·特朗普”

他的这番话是在民意调查显示斯特耶和伯尼·桑德斯参议员(共和党)当选后发表的。)对南卡罗来纳州的黑人选民产生了影响，他们将占该州民主党初选选民的一半以上。

拜登在南卡罗来纳州的黑人选民中仍然有很多支持者，在撰写本报告时，他刚刚得到了众议院多数党鞭和南卡罗来纳州众议员吉姆·克莱伯恩的支持。

但哥伦比亚广播公司新闻频道和YouGov周日公布的一项令人震惊的民意调查显示，他在选民中的支持率已经下降了19个百分点在三个月的时间里，汤姆·施泰尔指数飙升了22点。

和...说话新闻周刊周二，众议员卢瑟福说:“目前，我认为乔·拜登仍然保持着微弱的领先优势。但老实说，他最大的威胁似乎是汤姆·施泰尔。”

当被问及为何将这位亿万富翁视为拜登在该州领先地位的最大威胁时，这位南卡罗来纳州众议院少数党领袖表示，在该州黑人选民关心的问题上，施泰尔“没有错过任何机会”。

卢瑟福补充道:“我认为如果汤姆·施泰尔早点在这里开始比赛，他可能会跑得远远的，因为他在这里投入了太多的时间和资源。”。

布隆伯格的支持者声称，在周六的初选之前，他的“很多”同事已经“走向”这位亿万富翁，他认识到拜登在该州拥有“基层支持”，因为他“从担任参议员和副总统时起就一直往返于该州”

根据南卡罗来纳州的初选平均投票率，拜登明显领先于施泰尔和桑德斯。根据该州五点三八的平均民意调查，前副总统和第二名桑德斯之间的差距接近八个百分点。拜登对施泰尔的平均领先优势为17.6个百分点。

2020年2月26日，乔·拜登在南卡罗莱纳州莫利亚山浸礼会教堂主持阿尔·夏普顿牧师早餐会时向人群发表演讲。

“乔·拜登仍是我们进入最后冲刺阶段的领跑者。东卡罗莱纳大学调查研究中心的民意测验专家彼得·法兰克王国说:“他很早就领先了，主要是在非洲裔美国选民中，尤其是年龄较大的非洲裔美国选民中。”。

但他也承认，参议员桑德斯和施泰尔在南卡罗来纳州的黑人选民中取得了“进展”，并指出这位佛蒙特州参议员在内华达州的党团会议上证明，他正在“建立一个比四年前更加]多元化和更加广泛的[联盟”

谈到施泰尔，法兰克王国补充道:“他与非裔美国人社区的联系非常协调，施泰尔在南卡罗来纳州的表现明显好于全国。”

民调数据显示，施泰尔的表现一直超过他在南卡罗来纳州的一位数全国民调平均水平，在最近几周，他一直以大约15%的支持率位居第三。

周一晚上公布的一项全国广播公司新闻/玛丽斯特民调显示，15%的南卡罗来纳州民主党选民支持施泰尔，该州18%的黑人选民支持他，32%和22%的人分别支持拜登和桑德斯。

在哥伦比亚广播公司新闻频道和YouGov周日发布的另一项调查中，拜登在黑人选民中的支持率比11月份下降了19个百分点，施泰尔在选民中的支持率上升了22个百分点，桑德斯上升了6个百分点。

东卡罗莱纳大学2月14日公布的一项民意调查还发现，拜登在南卡罗来纳州的老年黑人选民中表现最好，而该社区的年轻成员通常更倾向于桑德斯参议员。

“他已经在年轻的非洲裔美国选民中取得了进展，”欧洲货币单位民意测验专家法兰克王国说。

和...说话新闻周刊关于哪个候选人在他年轻的同龄人中最受欢迎，南卡罗来纳州大学民主党主席杰克森·尼特说:“我认为最受欢迎的可能是伯尼·桑德斯，其次可能是皮特·巴特吉。”

他后来补充道:“我们的一名学生，我可以说是一名学生，一直是拜登的长期支持者。”

当被问及为什么他认为前副总统在南卡罗来纳州的一些民调中看到他在黑人选民中的支持率下降时，众议员卢瑟福说:“拜登似乎已经失去了一步。他似乎不像以前那样了。这种无能影响了他的当选能力。”

这位南卡罗来纳州众议院少数党领袖声称他与拜登“共度了很多时光”，并将他描述为一个“了不起的人”和“每个人的朋友”，并补充道:“现在这还不足以击败唐纳德·特朗普。”

卢瑟福进一步表示，如果这位前参议员周六未能赢得该州最多的选票和代表，他将“完蛋”。

“我认为即使拜登获得第二名也不够好，”法兰克王国说。"他必须赢得南卡罗来纳州。"

如果这位前副总裁在周六的提名竞争中没有获胜，他会看到他退出吗？“我不认识拜登竞选团队中的任何人。但如果我是他的竞选顾问，我会强烈考虑这一点。留下来的唯一原因是超级星期二就在眼前。”

新闻周刊我已经联系了拜登2020竞选团队寻求评论，并将更新这个故事，并给出任何回应。

 

SOUTH CAROLINA BLACK CAUCUS MEMBER SAYS JOE BIDEN IS 'DONE' IF HE LOSES STATE, QUESTIONS ELECTABILITY VERSUS TRUMP

South Carolina House Minority Leader Todd Rutherford has warned that Joe Biden's 2020 campaign will be "done" if he doesn't record a first place finish in the state's primary race on Saturday.

The legislative black caucus member who backed former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg last Thursday told Newsweek that Tom Steyer was the "greatest threat" to former Vice President Biden's chances of winning the South Carolina primary, and argued that the billionaire had "not missed a beat" on issues that concerned the state's large African American community.

Rutherford also questioned Biden's electability going into the race, saying he thought the former vice president was a "fantastic guy," but arguing that his personality was "just not enough right now to beat Donald Trump."

His remarks came as polling showed Steyer and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) making inroads with black voters in South Carolina, who are set to make up more than half of the state's Democratic primary electorate.

Biden still has a plurality of support among black voters in South Carolina, and has just received an endorsement from the influential House Majority Whip and South Carolina congressman Jim Clyburn, at the time of writing.

But a shock poll from CBS News and YouGov published on Sunday revealed that his rating with the constituency had fallen by 19 points in the space of three months as Tom Steyer's soared by 22 points.

Speaking to Newsweek on Tuesday, Rep. Rutherford said: "At the moment, I think Joe Biden still maintains a small lead. But honestly, his greatest threat appears to be Tom Steyer."

Asked why he viewed the billionaire as the biggest threat to Biden's lead in the state, the South Carolina House minority leader said Steyer had "not missed a beat" on issues of concern to black voters in the state.

"I think had Tom Steyer started here earlier, he probably would have run away with the race, just because he's invested so much time and so many resources here," Rutherford added.

After claiming that "a lot" of his colleagues had "gone toward" the billionaire ahead of Saturday's primary, the Bloomberg backer recognised that Biden had "a base level support" in the state because he had "been back and forth to the state from when he was a senator and vice president."

As primary polling averages for South Carolina stand, Biden has a clear lead over both Steyer and Sanders. According to the FiveThirtyEight average of the state's polls, an almost eight-point gap separates the former vice president and second place Sanders. The average lead Biden has over Steyer stands at a greater 17.6 points.

Joe Biden addresses a crowd during the Rev. Al Sharpton Minister's Breakfast at Mt. Moriah Missionary Baptist Church in South Carolina on February 26, 2020.

"Joe Biden is still the frontrunner as we head into the final stretch. He built a big lead early on, primarily among African American voters, especially older African American voters," said the pollster Peter Francia of the East Carolina University Center for Survey Research.

But he also recognized that both Sen. Sanders and Steyer had made "inroads" among black voters in South Carolina, noting that the Vermont senator proved in the Nevada caucus that he was "building a [more] diverse and broader coalition than he had four years ago."

Speaking about Steyer, Francia added: "He's made very concerted outreach to the African American community, and Steyer is doing noticeably better in South Carolina than he is nationally."

Polling data shows Steyer consistently outperforming his single-digit national polling average in South Carolina, where he has consistently polled in third place with around 15 percent support over recent weeks.

An NBC News/Marist poll published on Monday night showed 15 percent of the South Carolina Democratic electorate backed Steyer, with 18 percent of black voters in the state favoring him while 32 percent and 22 percent opted for Biden and Sanders respectively.

In a separate survey released by CBS News and YouGov on Sunday, Biden's support among black voters was marked down 19 points from November as Steyer's rating with the constituency leapt by 22 points and Sanders' jumped by 6 points.

An East Carolina University poll published on 14 February also found that Biden did best with South Carolina's older black voters while younger members of the community typically favored Sen. Sanders.

"He's made inroads with younger African American voters," ECU pollster Francia said.

Speaking to Newsweek about which candidate was most popular among his young peers, University of South Carolina College Democrats President Jackson Nietert said: "I'd say the most popular is probably Bernie Sanders, and second to that would probably be Pete Buttigieg."

He later added: "One of our students, and I say one literally, has been a long-term Biden supporter."

Asked why he believed the former vice president had seen his support among black voters decline in some South Carolina polls, Rep. Rutherford said: "Biden appears to have lost a step. He appears to not have what he once did. And that inability impacts his electability."

After claiming that he had spent "a lot of time" with Biden and describing him as a "fantastic guy" and "everyone's friend," the South Carolina House minority leader added: "That's just not enough right now to beat Donald Trump."

Rutherford further said the ex-senator would be "done" if he fails to win the most votes and delegates in the state on Saturday.

"I think even a second place finish for Biden is not good enough," Francia said. "He has to win South Carolina."

Could he see the ex-VP dropping out if he doesn't win the Saturday nominating contest? "I don't know anyone on the Biden campaign. But if I was advising his campaign, I would strongly consider that. The only reason to stay in is that Super Tuesday's right around the corner."

Newsweek has contacted the Biden 2020 campaign for comment and will update this story with any response.