一名人权活动家兼律师在伊朗人前往议会选举投票站时表示，伊朗政权只能通过武力确保对公民的控制。
预计投票率会很低，反映出对糟糕的经济状况、去年对抗议活动的残酷镇压以及今年1月德黑兰郊外一架客机被意外击落的巨大愤怒。
政权官员——包括最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊——已经敦促公民投票尽管伊朗的民主受到哈梅内伊及其任命的12人监护委员会的严格控制。该组织审核并批准潜在候选人，今年已经禁止了一些候选人16，000人中的9，000人未来的立法者。
加拿大麦克唐纳-劳里埃研究所的资深律师卡韦·沙赫鲁兹接受了采访新闻周刊来自日内瓦人权和民主峰会。
他说，虽然伊朗政权从来不允许自由或公平的选举，“他们甚至不能再躲在投票背后作为合法性的标志。”
Shahrooz说，最近的动乱表明“对政权的不满是普遍的，这个政权不能满足人民的需要，政权的核心害怕自己的人民。它不得不使用枪支，因为它无法解决他们潜在的不满。”
哈梅内伊本周警告说，“朋友和敌人”将关注选举结果，看看唐纳德·特朗普总统针对德黑兰的“最大压力”运动是否奏效，并告诉选民去投票是他们的职责。
议会目前由较为温和的派别控制，尽管沙鲁兹称他们仍然“涉嫌大规模屠杀，他们自己也涉嫌大规模腐败”
由于内乱、联合全面行动计划的失败以及与美国的军事交流，强硬派准备夺回控制权。如果强硬派真的夺回控制权，他们将在2021年选择下一任总统。
“无论选举结果如何，我认为国际社会必须认识到这些选举既不自由也不公平，”沙鲁兹说。“它们真的一点意义都没有。”
他将政权统治描述为“人质局势”，并警告美国官员，无论是特朗普还是未来的总统，都应该对接触保持谨慎。沙鲁兹预测，该政权将试图“在不给本国公民任何权利的情况下融入国际社会”。
对于什么可以取代神权政治，没有简单的答案，沙鲁兹说，神权政治是政权更迭倡导者的“真正担忧”。伊拉克和叙利亚等地区国家的混乱表明，如果一个政权在没有继任计划的情况下失去控制，将会发生什么，而在伊朗，“没有一个连贯和统一的政府在等待着，”沙鲁兹解释道。
伊朗侨民中的杰出人物——例如礼萨·巴列维被废黜的穆罕默德·礼萨·巴列维的儿子已经提议举行一次民主公投来确立前进的道路，尽管组织和运行这样的投票会带来巨大的挑战。
Shahrooz说权力的转移可以是和平的和成功的，引用了分裂苏联的东方集团起义。在伊朗，他说反对者需要赢得“统治阶级的某些派别”并获得国际支持。他补充道，任何提出军事解决方案的人都将“大错特错”
沙鲁兹还警告说，咄咄逼人的言辞——例如特朗普威胁攻击伊朗文化遗址——是“没有帮助的”
2020年2月21日，在伊朗德黑兰的投票站，一名伊朗男子在议会选举中投票..
IRAN'S REGIME IS 'TERRIFIED OF ITS OWN PEOPLE,' HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST SAYS AS VOTERS GO TO THE POLLS
The Iranian regime can only ensure control over citizens through force, a human rights activist and lawyer has said as Iranians head to the polls for parliamentary elections.
Turnout is expected to be low, reflecting significant anger over poor economic conditions, brutal repression of protests last year and the accidental shooting down of a passenger plane outside Tehran in January.
Regime officials—including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—have urged citizens to vote, though Iran's democracy is tightly controlled by Khamenei and the 12-man Guardian Council he appoints. The group vets and approves potential candidates, and this year has barred some 9,000 of 16,000 prospective lawmakers.
Kaveh Shahrooz, a lawyer and senior fellow with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Canada, spoke to Newsweek from the Geneva Summit for Human Rights and Democracy this week.
He said that while the Iranian regime has never allowed free or fair elections, "they won't even be able to hide behind the turnouts as a sign of legitimacy anymore."
Shahrooz said the recent turmoil shows that "dissatisfaction with the regime is widespread, that this regime can't deliver what people need, and that the core of the regime is terrified of its own people. And it has to use guns because it can't address their underlying grievances."
Khamenei warned this week "friends and foe" will be watching the results to see whether President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran is working, telling voters it was their duty to go to the polls.
Parliament is currently controlled by the more moderate faction, though Shahrooz said they are still "implicated in mass killings, they themselves are implicated in mass corruption."
Hardliners are poised to take back control, energized by civil unrest, the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and the military exchanges with the U.S. If the hardliners do take back control, they will be in position to choose the next president in 2021.
"Whatever the results of the election, I think the international community has to realize that these elections are neither free nor fair," Shahrooz said. "They don't really mean very much at all."
He described regime rule as a "hostage situation" and warned that U.S. officials, whether under Trump or a future president, should be cautious about engagement. The regime will try to "integrate themselves into the international community without giving their own citizens any rights," Shahrooz predicted.
There is no easy answer for what can replace the theocracy, which Shahrooz said is a "real worry" for regime change advocates. Chaos in regional nations like Iraq and Syria shows what can happen when a regime loses control with no succession plan, and in Iran "there is not a coherent and unified government in waiting," Shahrooz explained.
Prominent figures in the Iranian diaspora—such as Reza Pahlavi, the son of deposed Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi—have proposed a democratic referendum to establish a way forward, though organizing and running such a poll poses huge challenges.
Shahrooz said a shift in power can be peaceful and successful, citing the Eastern Bloc uprisings that broke up the Soviet Union. In Iran, he said dissenters will need to win over "some faction of the ruling class" and gain international support. He added that anyone suggesting a military solution would be "deeply mistaken."
Shahrooz also warned that aggressive rhetoric—for example Trump threatening to attack Iranian cultural sites—is "not helpful."
An Iranian man is pictured casting his vote in a parliamentary election at a polling station in Tehran, Iran on February 21, 2020..
