佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯成为2020年总统候选人名单中的一员，这并不是第一次民主党初选中出现的唯一情况——竞争大会的可能性也是如此。

据报道，尽管还有几个月的时间，无数的曲折和转折还没有结束，但是没有候选人赢得大多数承诺代表的可能性超过三分之一五点三十八分的预测，这可能导致一个有争议的大会。民主党人担心这样一个混乱的场景会在直播的电视上上演:第三次世界大战在民主党全国代表大会上。

“这是一个烂摊子，”长期的民主党战略家克里斯·科芬特告诉记者新闻周刊。"这种情况发生的可能性真的会把聚会搞得四分五裂。"

更重要的是，一个有争议的大会——或者有时被称为“斡旋”大会——意味着尽管有人赢得了多数代表，但他们不一定是被提名者。没有多数候选人的第一轮代表投票意味着这一过程会延伸到第二轮，产生强大超级代表的附加通配符。

一个候选人赢得多数票但失去提名的情况，可能最有可能发生在自称为民主党社会主义者的桑德斯身上引起党内温和派的深切恐惧关于他的名字和自由主义政策对全国的民主党人意味着什么。

但是，在这种情况下，冷落桑德斯取得胜利——他的许多支持者认为这是2016年针对希拉里·克林顿的胜利，希拉里·克林顿得到了当权派和大多数超级代表的支持——将会分裂该党，并有可能剥夺民主党将唐纳德·特朗普总统赶下台的能力。

战略家警告说，对民主党人的连任机会和击败总统的能力来说，更糟糕的是，他们没有团结在初选结论证明获胜的人周围——不管是不是有争议的大会。

2月11日，民主党总统候选人佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯在新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特的SNHU菲尔德府的初选之夜发表讲话。伯尼·桑德斯在新罕布什尔州至关重要的民主党初选中胜出，击败了温和派对手皮特·巴蒂吉和艾米·克洛布查尔，在白宫竞选中挑战唐纳德·特朗普总统。

“党内的人低估了如果代表人数最多的人不能成为被提名人的后果，不管那个人是谁，”Kofinis说。"党内对此很焦虑。"

前克林顿总统竞选的高级顾问埃德里安娜·埃尔罗德说，在提名人选时，除了团结之外，不应该有任何宽容。这包括桑德斯。

“风险太大了。我们不是在和米特·罗姆尼或者像约翰·麦凯恩那样的温和派竞争，”民主党战略家告诉记者新闻周刊。"我们正在和有史以来占领白宫的最危险的总统竞选。"

随着代表们在如此多的潜在提名者中进行分配，任何一个候选人都变得更加难以脱颖而出。更多的温和派、中间派候选人——前纽约市市长迈克·布隆伯格、前副总统乔·拜登、明尼苏达州参议员艾米·克洛布查尔和前印第安纳州南本德市市长皮特·巴特吉格——使得他们中的任何一个都很难超过桑德斯，在3979名承诺代表中至少赢得1991名。

桑德斯在党内最进步的选民中最大的对手是马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦。她目前排名第三，落后于巴特吉格和桑德斯。

“没有人看似正在崛起或有可能崛起为该党所有派系的旗手，”科德解释道。“时间拖得越久，这些关于有争议的大会和其他听起来不可信的候选人的牵强场景就越听起来可信。”

在一次有争议的大会上冷落桑德斯的提名，存在这样一种情况:任何仍在竞选中的温和派候选人都可以敦促他们的代表团结在其中一人周围，以获得多数席位，减轻脆弱的民主党人最大的担心，即他可能会让他们失去白宫席位，危及他们在众议院的多数席位，并将他们进一步推向参议院的少数席位。

“我尊重参议员桑德斯；我认为他在民主讨论中注入了一些重要的话语。但是，他会影响众议院的选举吗？他会不会因为四个、五个、六个真正重要的州而削弱取代唐纳德·特朗普在白宫的地位？是的，”众议员迪恩·菲利普斯(明尼苏达州民主党人)表示，他支持克罗布查新闻周刊。

“我们许多人都有这种担忧，”他解释道。“如果这不是唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)和民主党提名人之间的竞争，而是资本主义和社会主义之间的竞争，那对美国和民主党都是不健康的。”

桑德斯反驳说，他的提名将危及数十名处境危险的国会议员，其中许多人在2018年推翻了特朗普赢得的众议院选区。他认为他的候选资格会增加选民投票率，有助于减少选票竞争。

桑德斯告诉记者:“当你投票时，你增加了投票率，让劳动人民参与政治进程，让年轻人参与政治进程。”新闻周刊。"从选票的顶端到底端，大量的投票者将会帮助每个人。"

2016年7月26日，宾夕法尼亚州费城，在韦尔斯法戈中心举行的民主党全国代表大会第二天的唱名表决中，佛蒙特州代表团投票后，伯尼·桑德斯参议员向人群挥手致意。

他在国会山的一些顶级代理人，比如新生代表亚历山大·奥西奥·科尔特斯(纽约)，也在试图平息同事们的任何恐惧。

“我认为不管候选人是谁，都会有人担心，”她说新闻周刊。

桑德斯的另一位民主党支持者、众议员罗康纳(加州民主党)补充道:“没有人需要成为他的克隆体。”。“如果他们所在的地区有不同意见，他们可以采取与他不同的立场。”

佛罗里达州众议员黛比·乏色曼·舒尔茨，民主党全国委员会2016年初选的主席，拒绝谈论桑德斯的提名或一个有争议的大会对该党意味着什么。她补充道，在初选结束之前，她不会支持任何候选人。

“我们离知道谁将被提名还有很长的路要走，”乏色曼·舒尔茨告诉记者。"在这一点上，我的重点是确保我们能保住众议院的多数席位。"

避免有争议的大会的最好方法是什么？知道什么时候退出

2019年12月19日，民主党总统候选人(来自左)企业家杨安泽(已退出)、印第安纳州南本德市前市长皮特·巴蒂吉格、马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦、前副总统乔·拜登、佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯和明尼苏达州参议员艾米·克洛布查尔来到加利福尼亚州洛约拉·马利蒙特大学，参加由美国公共广播公司新闻一小时与政治联合主办的2020年总统竞选季第六次民主党初选辩论。

仍有一位候选人聚集了足够广泛的联盟来赢得多数席位，这是人们对一场有争议的大会的担忧背后的驱动力。尽管桑德斯在新罕布什尔州获胜，但与他2016年的表现相比，他表现不佳，仅获得四分之一的代表席位。

在3月3日的超级星期二之后，大约40%的代表将被分发出去，这使得更多的候选人可能会退出，并提供一个更准确的谁是领先者的描述。

新罕布什尔州民主党战略家吉姆·德默斯告诉记者:“对于所有的民主党竞选，我有一句话要提醒大家:看看四年前共和党方面发生了什么。”新闻周刊。“候选人应该认真考虑什么时候该退出竞选，而不是让该党陷入有争议的大会局面。”

尽管到目前为止只有不到2%的代表获得提名，新罕布什尔州的初选仅仅提高了那些认为有争议的大会即将召开的人的可信度。进步派候选人桑德斯和沃伦总共获得了大约35%的选票，而温和派候选人巴特吉格、克洛布查尔和拜登获得了大约52%的选票。

布隆伯格将从其他温和派中抽取代表，但他还没有参加初选，他没有参加提前投票的州，而是将资源集中在超级星期二，让各州摇摆不定。

德默斯补充道:“我只是不想看到一个有大量马匹交易的大会，因为有人对结果不满意而导致派对破裂。”。

在战略家中新闻周刊接受采访时，埃尔罗德最有信心避免一场有争议的大会。她预测，这种可能性“非常小”

“不管提名人是谁，选民对特朗普的鄙视这次都会上升，”埃尔罗德说。"

HOW THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY COULD DESCEND INTO CHAOS: A CONTESTED CONVENTION AND A SNUB TO SANDERS

The emergence of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders as one of the top 2020 presidential contenders isn't the only thing that arose from the first Democratic elections of the primary—so did the likelihood for a contested convention.

Although months away with an endless number of twist and turns yet to play out, there is a more than a one-third chance that no candidate wins a majority of the pledged delegates, according to FiveThirtyEight's forecast, which could result in a contested convention. Democrats fear how such a chaotic scenario would unfold on live T.V.: World War III on the floor of the Democratic National Convention.

"This thing is a mess," Chris Kofinis, a longtime Democratic strategist, told Newsweek. "The possibility that it could happen could really tear the party apart."

More importantly, a contested convention—or sometimes referred to as a "brokered" convention—means that although someone wins the plurality of delegates, they won't necessarily be the nominee. A first round of delegate voting with no majority candidate means the process spills over into round two, yielding the added wildcard of powerful superdelegates.

The scenario where a candidate wins the plurality but loses the nomination is perhaps most likely to occur for Sanders, a self-described Democratic socialist arousing deep fears within the moderate wing of the party about what his name and liberal policies at the top of the ticket could mean for Democrats across the country.

But snubbing Sanders of a victory—something many of his supporters believe took place in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, who was backed by the establishment and most superdelegates—in such a situation would fracture the party and potentially deny Democrats the ability to oust President Donald Trump from office.

What could be even worse for Democrats' re-election chances and aptitude to defeat the president, strategists warn, is not coalescing around whomever proves victorious by the primary's conclusion—contested convention or not.

Democratic presidential hopeful Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders speaks at a Primary Night event at the SNHU Field House in Manchester, New Hampshire on February 11. Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire's crucial Democratic primary, beating moderate rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar in the race to challenge President Donald Trump for the White House.

"People in the party are underestimating the consequences if the person with the most delegates doesn't become the nominee, despite who that person is," Kofinis said. "There's anxiety in the party about this."

Adrienne Elrod, a former senior adviser to Clinton's presidential bids, said there should be "no tolerance" for "anything but unity" when it comes to a nominee. That includes Sanders.

"There's way too much at stake. We're not running against a Mitt Romney or a moderate, like John McCain," the Democratic strategist told Newsweek. "We're running against the most dangerous president to ever occupy the White House."

With delegates divvied up among so many potential nominees, it becomes more difficult for any one candidate to stand out. And the larger group of moderate, more centrist hopefuls—former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, former Vice President Joe Biden, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg—make it difficult for any one of them to surpass Sanders and win at least 1,991 out of 3,979 pledged delegates.

Sanders' biggest opponent standing in his way with the party's most progressive voters is Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. She's currently in third, trailing Buttigieg and Sanders.

"There is nobody that's seemingly emerging or could potentially emerge as the standard bearer for all the factions of the party," Kofinis explained. "The longer that goes, the more these far-fetched scenarios about a contested convention and other candidates that sound implausible are going to start sounding plausible."

In snubbing Sanders the nomination at a contested convention, there exists the scenario where any moderate candidates still in the race could urge their delegates to coalesce around one of them to obtain a majority, alleviating vulnerable Democrats' greatest fear that he might cost them the White House, jeopardize their House majority and push them further into the minority in the Senate.

"I respect Senator Sanders; I think he's injected some important discourse in the democratic discussion. But would he impact House races, and would he perhaps undermine replacing Donald Trump in the White House because of the four, five, six states that really matter? Yes," Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who's endorsed Klobuchar, told Newsweek.

"Many of us have that concern," he expounded. "If this becomes a race not between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee but between capitalism and socialism, that's both unhealthy for the country and certainly unhealthy for Democrats."

Sanders pushed back against the notion his nomination would endanger the dozens of at-risk congressional members, many of whom flipped House districts in 2018 won by Trump. He argued that his candidacy would increase voter turnout and help down-ballot races.

"When you vote, you grow the voter turnout and you bring working people into the political process and young people into the political process," Sanders told Newsweek. "A large voter turnout is going to help everybody, from the top of the ticket to the bottom."

Sen. Bernie Sanders (R) waves to the crowd after the Vermont delegation cast their votes during roll call on the second day of the Democratic National Convention at the Wells Fargo Center, July 26, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Some of his top surrogates on Capitol Hill, like freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), are also trying to quell any fears from colleagues.

"I think there's going to be concerns, no matter who the candidate is," she told Newsweek.

"No one needs to be a clone of him," added Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), another Democratic backer of Sanders. "If they're in districts where they disagree, they can take positions that depart from him."

Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the Democratic National Committee chair during the 2016 primary, declined to speak about what a Sanders nomination or a contested convention would mean for the party. She will not be endorsing a candidate until after the primary, she added.

"We are a long way from knowing who are nominee will be," Wasserman Schultz told reporters. "At this point, I am focused on making sure we can hold on to our House majority."

The best way to avoid a contested convention? Know when to drop out

Democratic presidential hopefuls (from L) entrepreneur Andrew Yang (who's since dropped out), former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana Pete Buttigieg, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar arrive for the sixth Democratic primary debate of the 2020 presidential campaign season co-hosted by PBS NewsHour & Politico at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, California on December 19, 2019.

There remains yet to be a candidate who's amassed a wide enough coalition to win the majority, the driving force behind concerns about a contested convention. Though Sanders won in New Hampshire, he underperformed in comparison to his 2016 performance and secured just one-fourth of the total delegates.

After Super Tuesday on March 3, roughly 40 percent of the delegates will be doled out, lending the likelihood more candidates will drop out and offer a more accurate depiction of who the front-runner is.

"I would have one word of caution for all of the Democratic campaigns: look at what happened four years ago on the Republican side," New Hampshire Democratic strategist Jim Demers told Newsweek. "Candidates should think hard about when it's time to get out of the race, rather than putting the party in a contested convention situation."

Despite less than 2 percent of delegates awarded so far, the New Hampshire primary only heightened the credibility of those who say a contested convention is on the horizon. Progressive candidates Sanders and Warren totaled about 35 percent of the vote, while moderates Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Biden amassed roughly 52 percent.

Bloomberg, who will siphon delegates from other moderates, has yet to compete in a primary election, sitting out the early-voting states to instead focus his resources on Super Tuesday and swing states down the road.

"I just don't want to see a convention where there's a lot of horse trading going on and the party leaves fractured because somebody isn't happy with the outcome," Demers added.

Among the strategists Newsweek interviewed, Elrod had the most confidence a contested convention would be avoided. The chance, she predicted, is "very slim."

"Voters' disdain for Trump will be elevated this time around," Elrod said, "no matter who the nominee is."