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民意调查:在新罕布什尔州,桑德斯仍领先时,数字飙升12个百分点

2020-02-10 10:43   美国新闻网   - 

新罕布什尔州的最新民调显示,民主党总统候选人、印第安纳州前南本德市市长皮特·巴蒂吉格的支持率大幅上升,佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯在周二初选前稳稳领先的同时也有所斩获。

根据该报告,桑德斯自1月份以来在新罕布什尔州上升了2个百分点,总体支持率上升到29%哥伦比亚广播公司新闻/YouGov战场跟踪调查。与此同时,自上个月以来,Buttigieg已经上升了12个百分点,投票率为25%。

马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦以17%的得票率位居第三,而对前副总统乔·拜登的支持率大幅下降,仅12%的得票率位居第四。明尼苏达州参议员艾米·克洛布查尔以10%的得票率排在第五位。

民意调查预测,桑德斯的最佳情况是在初选中获得31%的支持,相比之下,只有23%的人支持Buttigieg。对Buttigieg来说,数据显示最好的情况是29%,而桑德斯是28%。调查还指出,新罕布什尔州桑德斯的支持者中,对自己的候选人“热情”的比例(68%)明显高于支持者(47%)。

2月7日,在新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特圣安瑟姆学院的沙利文竞技场,民主党总统候选人皮特·巴特吉格和伯尼·桑德斯在民主党总统初选辩论开始前互相问候

但是,在上周一的爱荷华州预选会议之后,蒂吉格和桑德斯成为了最早的领先者。虽然桑德斯在最后一轮投票中比巴特吉多赢得了2600多张选票,但这位前市长赢得的“州代表席位”比巴特吉多0.1%,这使他在该州获得了技术上的胜利。两位候选人都宣称获胜。

新罕布什尔州最近的所有民意调查都显示桑德斯是该州民主党选民中的领先者。然而,民调显示,佛蒙特州参议员和一直位居第二的巴特吉格之间的差距有所不同。总的来说,民调显示桑德斯的平均支持率为26.7%,而巴蒂吉以21.5%的平均支持率落后几个百分点。

艾默生本周末公布的一项民意调查发现,桑德斯在新罕布什尔州以30%的绝对优势领先,相比之下,巴蒂吉为20%。但是波士顿环球报萨福克调查发现,竞争者之间的差距要小得多,桑德斯为24%,紧随其后的是巴蒂吉,为22%。

拜登仅在爱荷华州获得第四名,预计在新罕布什尔州表现不佳,但他似乎仍是民主党全国最受欢迎的候选人。最近民调显示,前副总统平均支持率为27%,其次是桑德斯,支持率为21.8%。沃伦以14.4%的得票率排在第三,而巴蒂吉只得到大约7%的民主党选民的支持。

爱荷华州之后,早上咨询调查数据显示52%的民主党选民现在“更有可能”投票给桑德斯。对Buttigieg的热情要低得多,只有38%的人说他们“更有可能”支持前市长。

BUTTIGIEG SURGES 12 POINTS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS SANDERS STILL LEADS, GAINING 2 POINTS: NEW POLL

New polling out of New Hampshire has shown Democratic presidential candidate former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg surging, as Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has also seen gains while being firmly positioned in the lead ahead of Tuesday's primary vote.

Sanders jumped two points in New Hampshire since January, rising to 29 percent support overall, according to the CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker Poll. Meanwhile, Buttigieg has surged 12 points since last month, polling at 25 percent.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren came in third at 17 percent, while support for former Vice President Joe Biden has dropped substantially, placing him at fourth with just 12 percent. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar comes in fifth, with 10 percent.

The poll predicts that the best case scenario for Sanders would be 31 percent support in the primary vote, compared to just 23 percent for Buttigieg. For Buttigieg, the data suggests a best case scenario of 29 percent compared to 28 percent for Sanders. The survey also noted that a significantly higher percentage of Sanders backers in New Hampshire (68 percent) are "enthusiastic" about their candidate, compared to Buttigieg supporters (47 percent).

Democratic presidential candidates Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders greet each other prior to the start of the Democratic presidential primary debate in the Sullivan Arena at St. Anselm College on February 7 in Manchester, New Hampshire

Buttigieg and Sanders have emerged as the early front-runners following the Iowa caucuses last Monday. While Sanders won more than 2,600 more votes than Buttigieg in the final round of voting, the former mayor won 0.1 percent more "state delegate equivalents," giving him a technical win in the state. Both candidates have claimed victory.

All the most recent polls in New Hampshire have shown Sanders as the front-runner among Democratic voters in the state. The polls have varied, however, in the gap they have shown between the Vermont senator and Buttigieg, who has been consistently polling in second place. Overall, an aggregate of polls has shown Sanders with an average of 26.7 percent support while Buttigieg is several points behind with an average of 21.5 percent.

An Emerson poll released this weekend found Sanders with a commanding lead at 30 percent in New Hampshire, compared to Buttigieg at 20 percent. But a Boston Globe/Suffolk survey found a much-narrower gap between the contenders, with Sanders at 24 percent followed close behind by Buttigieg at 22 percent.

Biden, who only came in fourth place in Iowa and is expected to do poorly in New Hampshire, still appears to be the favored candidate among Democrats nationally. The Real Clear Politics aggregate of recent polls shows the former vice president with an average of 27 percent support, followed by Sanders with 21.8 percent. Warren comes in third with 14.4 percent, while Buttigieg only has the backing of about 7 percent of Democratic voters.

Following Iowa, Morning Consult survey data showed that 52 percent of Democratic voters were now "more likely" to vote for Sanders. Enthusiasm was much lower for Buttigieg, with just 38 percent saying they were "more likely" to back the former mayor.

 

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