美国对伊朗的第一轮战争似乎已经结束，对世界经济的影响似乎可以忽略不计。对于伊朗和唐纳德·特朗普总统不使冲突升级的意图，世界市场松了一口气。道琼斯工业平均指数从伊朗导弹袭击美国基地的第二天开始，为28，556点，攀升至28，637点，随后在总统讲话结束后飙升至28，768点。S&P 500和纳斯达克当天收盘都创下新高。

这意味着市场认为伊朗局势不会对世界经济产生重大负面影响。至少目前是这样。但是市场是否保持沉默取决于接下来会发生什么。大多数专家预计不会爆发全面战争，但他们也不认为战争已经结束。伊朗国家美国委员会的辛纳·图西说，导弹袭击“是公开的公众报复，这是国内公众消费所必需的”。但未来几个月也可能会有秘密报复。”期望交易者和投资者密切关注油价，油价是经济煤矿中的金丝雀。

图西认为伊朗别无选择。“没有外交坡道。特朗普和庞贝没有说他们想要什么，但伊朗无处可去。没什么可给的了。作为美国“最大压力”运动的一部分，制裁给伊朗经济带来了巨大困难。“没有人知道伊朗会采取什么行动，或者什么时候会采取行动。斯坦福大学的尼古拉斯·布鲁姆教授追踪了国际货币基金组织的不确定性，“这取决于伊朗人是否认为他们必须对美国或特朗普进行报复。如果是特朗普，那么任何回应都很可能会影响2020年的选举。"

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普2020年1月8日在DC华盛顿白宫发表讲话后结束了他的讲话。特朗普在讲话中谈到了昨晚发生在伊拉克的伊朗导弹袭击，并表示，“只要我是美国总统，伊朗就永远不会被允许拥有核武器。”

新美国基金会的彼得·辛格预测网络攻击会增加。“伊朗投入了大量资源来建设自己的能力。他们离美国很远，但却是一个真正的威胁。到目前为止，他们已经进行了一系列的网络攻击，更多的是为了炫耀他们的能力，而不是造成真正的伤害...我们很可能会看到这些简历，然后去追求软目标，比如市政供水系统。”

马克·芬利是莱斯大学贝克研究所能源和全球石油研究员，他说，“伊朗已经实施不对称战争四十年了。我不会惊讶地看到油轮和加工设施，或许还有管道遭到袭击。”图西同时表示，我们可能会看到真主党等代理组织的爆炸和暗杀。

任何这些都可能导致石油市场的混乱。旅游、制造业和农业等行业对油价高度敏感。然而，对全球经济的影响可能不会像20世纪70年代的石油冲击那样大。经济体对油价越来越不敏感。多亏了页岩油，美国的石油几乎自给自足。这并不意味着美国不会受到影响，因为石油是全球贸易，美国既是重要的出口国，也是重要的进口国。这确实意味着影响将是不均衡的和局部的。尽管许多地区会遭受损失，尤其是农村和不太富裕的地区，但像得克萨斯州和阿拉斯加州这样的产油州实际上会经历经济繁荣。

任何确实发生的价格上涨都不可能持续很长时间。凯文·布克是预测石油价格的ClearView能源合作伙伴公司的负责人，他说，“地缘政治高峰来了又去，而且不会持续那么久。系统内置了许多制动器来处理短期事件。沙特可以增加产量，或者总统可以动用战略储备。”布克告诉他的客户，布伦特原油价格将稳定在每桶60美元左右。这大概是过去一年左右油价的走势。

然而，全面战争可能导致更长时间的供应中断和每桶100美元的油价，辛格认为，这将引发“全球经济放缓和持续一代人的巨大影响”这可能是由伊朗或伊拉克的进一步袭击引发的，这些袭击造成了局势的升级。或者美国可以决定先发制人，因为它认为报复迫在眉睫，或者感觉到有机会对伊朗施加额外压力。政府中仍有非常强大的声音在推动政权更迭。

书上写道，“认为[杀害苏莱曼尼是一个错误，因为这是政府突然做出的未经研究的决定。政府中有些鹰派人士已经为此游说了一段时间。”托西同意，“恐怕政府中有一些非常强硬的声音，我们将以战争告终，这将是自越南战争以来美国付出最大代价的战争。”一场实体战争可能涉及空袭和美国地面部队，也可能蔓延到该地区的其他国家。

市场认为这种情况不太可能发生。尽管伊朗继续进行强硬的谈判，而且美国对伊朗的导弹袭击似乎是为了不造成人员伤亡，但所有相关人员似乎都在寻找出路。特朗普对此次攻击的回应被视为温和和和解。他将造成的损害描述为“最小”，并表示，“伊朗似乎正在下台，这对所有有关各方都是好事，对世界也是好事。”以色列和沙特阿拉伯也可能在幕后努力化解对抗。图西说，“十多年来，以色列和沙特阿拉伯一直敦促美国轰炸伊朗。但是他们只对美国承担费用的战争感兴趣。沙特不想看到成千上万枚伊朗导弹落到其石油生产设施上。现在这两个国家都在试图说服美国缓和局势。”

但即使在有限的战争场景下，不确定性的增加也可能引发全球经济衰退，而全球经济已经开始出现裂痕。芬利说，“如果消费者信心下降，人们就会担心并停止消费，这可能会影响经济。总统对加油站的价格非常敏感。”然而，会议委员会经济指标高级主任林恩·弗朗哥表示，“我们追踪消费者信心，如果我们回顾历史上的‘冲击事件’，它们往往只是暂时的影响。只有当它转化为失业时，它们才会持续。”

但她说，“这还为时尚早。我们不知道它将如何展开。”布鲁姆教授说，“特朗普是一个不可预测的演员。伊朗是一个不可预测的角色。伊拉克政府也是如此。这是一种有毒的混合物。”

煤矿里的金丝雀

如果美国和伊朗之间的冲突有重大的经济影响，它首先会出现在哪里？实际上有几十个指标可以预测经济趋势——每个指标都有自己的优缺点。

会议委员会经济和全球研究主席高级主任阿塔曼·奥兹亚尔迪林博士说，一些指标非常嘈杂，变化太大，很难将趋势与暂时现象区分开来。其他人可能会受到孤立事件的影响，并可能因短期供应中断而跳升。没有一个是万无一失的。Ozyildirim建议使用包含多个指标的仪表板，并根据用户的需求和具体情况定制该仪表板。例如，对于伊朗的情况，看看油价是有意义的。如果你是投资者，关注市场是有意义的。他还建议考虑涵盖不同时间框架的措施。随着伊朗局势的发展，他将观察以下五个方面:

• 布伦特原油。布伦特原油是基于北海产油的综合价格。它被用于所有国际石油交易的三分之二。总的来说，上涨对全球经济不利，下跌对全球经济有利。

• S&P 500。交易员和投资者对未来的预期被“计入”大型股票的价格。虽然许多人更熟悉道琼斯工业平均指数，但大多数专业人士使用标准普尔。一般来说，上涨被认为是好的，下跌被认为是坏的。

• 利率。尽管由于最近英国银行操纵的丑闻，伦敦银行同业拆放利率(伦敦银行同业拆放利率)有所下降，但它仍然是标准的、最常用的利率衡量标准。上行意味着银行认为金融风险正在上升；向下意味着他们认为它在下降。

• 消费者信心。基于调查，询问消费者对整体经济和自身前景的乐观程度。其中最古老的是CCI，即消费者信心指数，由非营利组织会议委员会每月发布。向上意味着消费者感觉良好，向下意味着他们感觉不好。

• 领先的经济指数。会议委员会编制的十个不同指标的综合指数。Ozyildirim说，“我当然有偏见，但这一个从20世纪30年代就开始了，并且得到了经验证明。它简单而透明——没有太多的假设或计算。“上升意味着经济似乎在增长；向下意味着收缩。

THE IRAN CRISIS COMES WITH SERIOUS RISKS FOR AMERICA'S ECONOMY

Round 1 of the U.S. vs. Iran seems to be over, and the effects on the world economy seem to be negligible. Relieved at what looks like Iran's and President Donald Trump's intentions not to escalate the conflict, world markets rallied. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which began the day after Iran's missile attacks on U.S. bases at 28,556, crept up to 28,637 just before the president's remarks then shot up to 28,768 after he finished speaking. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the day at record highs.

That means markets believe that the Iranian situation will not have a major negative effect on the world economy. At least for now. But whether markets stay blasé depends on what happens next. Most experts do not expect a full-on war, but neither do they think this is over. Sina Toossi, of the National Iranian American Council, says the missile attack "was the overt public retaliation, which was necessary for public consumption at home. But there is likely to be covert retaliation as well in the coming months." Expect traders and investors to keep a close eye on oil prices, the canary in the economic coal mine.

Toossi believes that Iran has no choice. "There's no diplomatic off ramp. Trump and Pompeo haven't said what they want, but Iran has nowhere to go. Nothing left to give. The sanctions imposed as part of the U.S.'s 'maximum pressure' campaign have put the Iranian economy under a great deal of hardship." No one knows what Iran's move or moves will be, or when they will occur. According to Professor Nicholas Bloom of Stanford, who tracks uncertainty for the International Monetary Fund, "It depends on whether the Iranians feel they must retaliate against America or against Trump. If it's Trump, then any response may well be timed to affect the 2020 elections."

U.S. President Donald Trump concludes his remarks after speaking from the White House on January 08, 2020 in Washington, DC. During his remarks, Trump addressed the Iranian missile attacks that took place last night in Iraq and said, “As long as I am president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.”

Peter Singer, of the New America Foundation, predicts an increase in cyber-attacks. "Iran put a lot of resources into building its capabilities. They're nowhere near the US but they're a real threat. So far, they've conducted a series of cyber-attacks that are really more about showing off their capabilities than doing real damage... We'll probably see those resume and go after soft targets, like municipal water systems."

Mark Finley, who's a fellow in energy and global oil at Rice University's Baker Institute, says, "Iran's been practicing asymmetric warfare for forty years. I wouldn't be surprised to see attacks on tankers and processing facilities, and perhaps pipelines." Toossi meanwhile says we may see bombings and assassinations by proxy groups, like Hezbollah.

Any of those could cause disruption in the oil market. Sectors like travel, manufacturing and agriculture are highly sensitive to oil prices. However, the effect on the global economy will likely not be as great as that caused by oil shocks of the 1970s. Economies are increasingly less sensitive to oil prices. Thanks to shale oil, the U.S. is almost self-sufficient in petroleum. That doesn't mean the U.S. wouldn't be affected because oil is globally traded and the U.S. is both a significant exporter and importer. It does mean the effects would be uneven and localized. While many regions would suffer, particularly rural and less affluent areas, oil-producing states like Texas and Alaska would actually experience an economic boom.

Any price jump that does occur is unlikely to last for very long. Kevin Book, who leads ClearView Energy Partners, a firm which forecasts oil prices, says, "Geo-political spikes come and go, and they tend not to be that long-lasting. There are a lot of brakes built into the system to handle short-term events. The Saudis can ramp up production or the president can tap strategic reserves." Book is telling his clients to expect Brent prices to level out around $60 per barrel. That's roughly where oil prices have been for the last year or so.

A full-on war, however, could result in more prolonged disruptions in supply and $100/barrel oil, which according to Singer, would trigger a "global economic slowdown and massive effects which would last for a generation." It could be triggered by further attacks by Iran or Iraq that create a spiral of escalation. Or the U.S. could decide to act preemptively because it believes retaliation is imminent or it senses an opportunity to create additional pressure on Iran. There remain very powerful voices in the administration pushing for nothing less than regime change.

Book notes, "It would be a mistake to think of [the killing of Soleimani] as a sudden, unstudied decision by the administration. There are hawks in the administration who've been lobbying for this for a while." Toossi agrees, "I'm afraid there are some very hard-line voices in the administration, we'll end up with war, and it will be the most costly war for America since Vietnam." A physical war could involve air strikes and U.S. ground troops, and could also spill over into other countries in the region.

The markets believe that scenario is unlikely. Everyone involved seems to be looking for a way out, despite continuing tough talk by Iran and the U.S. Iran's missile attack appeared to be designed not to inflict casualties. Trump's response to the attack was seen as muted and conciliatory. He described the damage caused as "minimal" and said, "Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world." Israel and Saudi Arabia may also be working behind the scenes to defuse the confrontation. Toossi says, "Israel and Saudi Arabia have been urging the U.S. to bomb Iran for over a decade. But they're only interested in a war where the U.S. bears the costs. Saudi doesn't want to see tens of thousands of Iranian missiles raining down on its oil production facilities. Now both countries are trying to talk the U.S. down and de-escalate the situation."

But even under a limited war scenario, increased uncertainty could trigger a recession in a global economy that is already beginning to show cracks. Finley says, "If consumer confidence drops, then people get worried and stop spending, and that could affect the economy. The president is very sensitive to prices at the pump." However, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board says, "We track consumer confidence and if we look back historically at 'shock events,' they tend to only have a temporary effect. They only last if it translates into job losses."

But she says, "It's very early in the game. We don't know how it will unfold." Professor Bloom says, "Trump is an unpredictable actor. Iran is an unpredictable actor. The Iraqi government is as well. It's a toxic mix."

Canaries in the Coalmine

If there is significant economic fallout from the conflict between the US and Iran, where will it show up first? There are literally dozens of metrics to predict economic trends--each with its own strengths and weaknesses.

Dr. Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board, says some indicators are very noisy, with so much movement it can be hard to distinguish a trend from a blip. Others can be affected by isolated events and can jump because of short-term supply disruptions. None are foolproof. Ozyildirim recommends using a dashboard of several metrics and tailoring that dashboard for the needs of the user and the specific situation. For example, for the Iranian situation, it makes sense to look at oil prices. And if you're an investor, it makes sense to follow the markets. He also recommends looking at measures that cover different time frames. Here are five he'd be watching as the Iranian situation unfolds:

• Brent Crude. Brent Crude is a composite price based on oil produced in the North Sea. It's used in 2/3 of all international oil trading. In general, UP is bad for the global economy and DOWN is good.

• S&P 500. The expectations of traders and investors about the future are 'priced into' the prices of large stocks. While many people are more familiar with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, most pros use the S&P. In general, UP is regarded as good, DOWN as bad.

• Interest Rates. Although a bit tarnished due to a recent scandal around manipulation by British banks, LIBOR (the London Inter-bank Offered Rate) remains the standard and most commonly followed measure of interest rates. UP means banks think financial risk is rising; DOWN means they think it's decreasing.

• Consumer Confidence. Based on surveys that ask consumers how optimistic they are about the outlook going forward, both for the overall economy and themselves. One of the oldest is the CCI, or Consumer Confidence Index, produced monthly by non-profit The Conference Board. UP means consumers are feeling good, DOWN means they aren't.

• Leading Economic Index. A composite index of ten different indicators produced by The Conference Board. Ozyildirim says, "I'm biased of course, but this one's been going since the 1930's and it's empirically proven. It's simple and transparent—there's not a lot of assumptions or calculations in it." UP means it looks like the economy is growing; DOWN means a contraction.

•