石油市场观察人士担心，在美国一夜之间暗杀德黑兰最高级将领之一后，伊朗将对能源基础设施发动新一轮攻击。这场针锋相对的冲突不断升级，有可能导致油价飙升。

五角大楼称唐纳德·特朗普总统于2006年指挥了一次无人机袭击伊拉克撞上一辆载有少将·卡西姆·苏莱曼尼的汽车圣城军是伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)的一支外国部队，被美国认定为恐怖组织

在此之前，最近发生了一系列事件，首先是对美国和伊拉克联合军事设施的火箭袭击，其中一次袭击导致一名美国民用承包商死亡，数名服务人员受伤。

从那以后，美国对伊拉克的一名伊朗民兵进行了空袭美国驻巴格达大使馆遭到袭击据华盛顿称，是由德黑兰策划的暴力示威者所为。现在，苏莱曼尼死了，华盛顿建议美国公民离开伊拉克。

索莱马尼死后，油价飙升。在撰写本报告时，无人驾驶飞机袭击几小时后，WTI和布伦特原油都上涨了约3.5%。WTI每桶63.35美元，布伦特每桶68.62美元。

伊朗最高领导人阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Khamenei)承诺为索莱马尼的遇害“寻求报复”，索莱马尼在叙利亚残酷的内战中领导伊朗军方支持阿萨德政权。

去年，伊朗被华盛顿指控袭击霍尔木兹海峡的几艘油轮。德黑兰公开扣押并随后释放了其他据称侵犯其领土的油轮。

华盛顿还指责伊朗是幕后黑手9月份对阿布盖克和胡拉斯石油加工设施的导弹袭击沙特阿拉伯暂时切断了全球市场的大量石油供应。伊朗否认对此负责。

特朗普一再呼吁世界产油国增加石油供应以压低价格。但他与伊朗冲突的升级有可能加剧中东的不稳定——中东是石油供应的主要来源——并因此导致油价进一步上涨。

“这是该地区的一次地震事件，”前奥巴马政府能源顾问、现哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心主任杰森·博尔多夫教授写道推特。

“这就是美伊针锋相对失控的原因。伊朗的反应将是严厉而致命的。当然也可能包括对能源基础设施的不断升级的攻击——Abqaiq只是个开始。”

伊兰·戈登伯格，新美国安全智囊团中心的中东安全主任，推特*“如果伊朗人向沙特和阿联酋发射一堆导弹，尤其是在美国基地，还有石油设施，不要感到惊讶。他们在9月份的准确性让我们吃惊，但他们故意试图将损失降到最低。这一次他们可能不会这样做。”

2017年12月11日，在首都德黑兰的一次示威活动中，伊朗抗议者手持伊朗圣城部队指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼将军的肖像。美国在2019年1月2日的无人机袭击中杀死了索莱马尼。

资本经济公司的商品分析师亚历山大·科祖尔·赖特告诉记者新闻周刊甚至在无人机袭击之前，油价就一直在上涨。

“这一积极势头可能意味着，由于紧张局势的升级，价格仍在上涨，”科祖尔-赖特说。

“显然，如果中东爆发全面的军事冲突，油价将飙升。在这里，我们怀疑布伦特原油可能达到每桶150美元。

“然而，这种反弹可能是短暂的，因为随着价格上涨，供应网络将会调整，需求将会下降。诚然，我们认为伊朗和美国之间爆发代理战争的可能性仍然不大。”

科祖尔-赖特继续说，“无论如何，我们认为基于供需基本面，今年年底油价将会走高。”

麻省理工学院国际研究中心执行主任约翰·提尔曼告诉记者半岛电视台伊朗肯定会报复，尽管不是通过与美国的直接对抗。“他们也许会再次袭击沙特油轮，也许会再次袭击沙特炼油厂，”提尔曼说。

Rapidan Energy认为，伊朗最有可能的下一个目标是沙特拥有的石油资产:延布的炼油厂、波斯湾的萨法尼亚油田以及胡拉斯油田。S&P环球唱片公司报道。

美国说，它杀死苏莱曼尼是为了防止伊朗的进一步袭击。“苏莱曼尼将军正在积极制定计划，攻击在伊拉克和整个地区的美国外交官和服务人员，”五角大楼在一份声明中说他指责圣城军“应对数百名美国和联军成员的死亡和数千人的受伤负责”

五角大楼的声明继续称:“过去几个月，他策划了对伊拉克联军基地的袭击——包括12月27日的袭击——最终导致更多美国和伊拉克人员伤亡。”。

“苏莱曼将军还批准了本周发生的对美国驻巴格达大使馆的袭击。这次袭击旨在阻止伊朗未来的袭击计划。美国将继续采取一切必要行动，保护我们的人民和我们在世界各地的利益。”

这篇文章被亚历山大·科祖尔·赖特的评论所更新。

TRUMP'S DRONE STRIKE ON IRAN GENERAL MAY ESCALATE ATTACKS ON SAUDI OIL TARGETS, EXPERTS SAY: 'THIS IS A SEISMIC EVENT'

Oil market watchers fear a new round of Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure following America's assassination overnight of one of Tehran's most senior generals in an escalating tit-for-tat conflict that threatens to send oil prices spiraling.

The Pentagon said President Donald Trump directed a drone strike in Iraq that hit a car carrying Major General Qassem Soleimani, leader of the Quds Force, a foreign unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S.

It followed a chain of recent events beginning with rocket attacks on joint U.S.-Iraqi military installations including one attack that killed an American civilian contractor and injured several service personnel.

Since then, the U.S. conducted airstrikes on an Iranian militia in Iraq and the American embassy in Baghdad was attacked by violent demonstrators orchestrated, according to Washington, by Tehran. Now, Soleimani is dead and Washington advised American citizens to leave Iraq.

In the aftermath of Soleimani's death, oil prices spiked. At the time of writing, both WTI and Brent crude oil were up around 3.5 percent several hours after the drone strike. WTI was $63.35 a barrel and Brent was $68.62.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei pledged to "seek revenge" for the killing of Soleimani, who led the Iranian military support for the Assad regime in Syria's brutal civil war.

Last year, Iran was accused by Washington of attacking several oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran openly seized and later released other tankers it alleged were violating its territorial space.

Washington also accuses Iran of being behind the missile strike in September on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil processing facilities in Saudi Arabia, which temporarily knocked down a substantial source of oil supply to the global market. Iran denied responsibility.

Trump has repeatedly called for the world's oil-producing nations to increase oil supply to push down prices. But his escalation of the conflict with Iran risks greater destabilization of the Middle East—a major source of oil supply—and as a consequence further increases in oil prices.

"This is a seismic event in the region," Professor Jason Bordoff, a former energy adviser to the Obama administration and now director of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, wrote on Twitter.

"This is how US-Iran tit-for-tat spirals out of control. Iran's response will be severe & deadly. And certainly may include escalating attacks on energy infrastructure—Abqaiq was just the beginning."

Ilan Goldenberg, Middle East security director at the Center for a New American Security think tank, tweeted: "Don't be surprised if the Iranians launch a bunch of missiles at Saudi and UAE especially at US bases but also oil facilities. They surprised us in September with their accuracy but they purposely tried to keep the damage to a minimum. This time they may not do that."

Iranian protesters hold a portrait of the commander of Iran's Quds Force, General Qassem Soleimani, during a demonstration in the capital Tehran on December 11, 2017. The U.S. killed Soleimani in a drone strike on January 2, 2019.

Alexander Kozul-Wright, a commodity analyst at Capital Economics, told Newsweek that oil prices were rising even before the drone strike.

"This positive momentum could mean that prices remain elevated as a result of the escalation in tensions," Kozul-Wright said.

"Clearly, the price of oil would soar in the event of full-blown military conflict in the Middle East. Here, we suspect that Brent could reach $150 per barrel.

"However, this rally would probably be short-lived as supply networks would adjust and demand would slump in the wake of higher prices. Admittedly, we think that the probability of a proxy war between Iran and the U.S. remains unlikely."

Kozul-Wright continued that "in any event, we think that oil prices will end the year higher based on supply and demand fundamentals."

John Tirman, executive director at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for International Studies, told Al Jazeera that Iran will certainly retaliate although not through a direct confrontation with the U.S. "They will perhaps attack Saudi tankers again, maybe Saudi oil refineries again," Tirman said.

Rapidan Energy views Iran's most likely next targets to be Saudi-owned oil assets: the refineries in Yanbu, the Safaniya oil field in the Persian Gulf, and, once again, the Khurais oil field, S&P Global Platts reported.

The U.S. said it killed Soleimani to prevent further attacks by Iran. "General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region," the Pentagon said in a statement, accusing the Quds Force of responsibility "for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more."

"He had orchestrated attacks on coalition bases in Iraq over the last several months–including the attack on December 27th–culminating in the death and wounding of additional American and Iraqi personnel," the Pentagon statement continued.

"General Soleimani also approved the attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad that took place this week. This strike was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans. The United States will continue to take all necessary action to protect our people and our interests wherever they are around the world."

This article was updated with comments by Alexander Kozul-Wright.