两名美国前高级外交官警告称，唐纳德·特朗普总统的朝鲜战略不太可能在不久的将来取得成果，因为金正恩年底发出的不祥最后通牒笼罩着陷入僵局的谈判。
前美国朝鲜政策特别代表约瑟夫·云和前白宫国家安全委员会亚洲事务主任维克多·查都接受了采访新闻周刊对于美国和朝鲜谈判者来说，这是一个不毛之年，在无核化和解除制裁方面没有真正的进展。
特朗普和他的支持者认为朝鲜是外交政策的胜利，总统经常声称他和金正日之间的历史性缓和在他的任何前任都不可能实现。
外交的意外爆发无疑让两国在2018年初从冲突的边缘退了回来。但自去年6月新加坡历史性峰会以来，人们的乐观情绪已经减弱，尤其是在20世纪90年代末新加坡经济崩溃之后河内第二次峰会越南。
随着2019年接近尾声，谈判者仍在争论朝鲜应该如何、何时以及在多大程度上实现无核化，以换取制裁减免。与此同时，平壤继续发展其军事能力，巩固其核地位。
2016年10月至2018年3月任美国特别代表的云表示，自河内会议以来，朝鲜“一直非常非常困难”
朝鲜已经恢复了好战的外交品牌,侮辱特朗普国务卿等关键助手迈克·庞贝。平壤警告说，如果届时没有进展，美国应该期待一份“圣诞礼物”。
“我想他们确实觉得，在河内，特朗普有点扼杀了他们，”云解释道。金一路旅行到河内——这是一次特别漫长的旅行，因为他使用的是个性化列车—期待达成协议，但特朗普没有选择出价。
云暗示，平壤的一个主要挫折是美国没有充分认识到该国的核和导弹能力。云说，金正日认为通过展示他的军事实力，他可以从美国获得更高的价格，但事实并非如此。
尽管金正日已经恢复了常规的短程和中程导弹试验，但他已经推迟了洲际弹道导弹或核弹头的演示。观察人士警告称，对如此重要武器的测试可能是金正日正在准备的“礼物”。
查被认为是特朗普的下一任驻韩国大使，但在公开谴责对朝鲜进行有限打击的建议后，他在2017年底失宠。他还担任过乔治·布什总统的朝鲜问题高级顾问。
“我们永远不能说永远，”查告诉新闻周刊当被问及2019年底前达成交易的可能性时。也就是说，所有迹象都表明朝鲜将在下周进行“某种大规模示威”。
无论测试是洲际弹道导弹、新型固体火箭推进剂发动机还是其他什么，查说它将被设计成“展示朝鲜能力的更多生存能力”。
不管怎样，查说他不认为世界回到了“火与怒”的轨道上，美国和朝鲜面临着核战争的威胁。“我不认为特朗普有兴趣在竞选年回到这一点，”他解释道。“那对他来说不是个好位置。”
云同意，一项协议对总统的政治命运比对核僵局更有利。然而，他也表示，他认为特朗普将不得不对洲际弹道导弹测试做出回应，即使这有引发新一轮外交危机的风险。
“特朗普必须做出非常强烈的反应，我认为这将迫使他出手，”云解释说，并补充说，总统的“吹嘘”主要集中在停止洲际弹道导弹和核试验上。
查建议，如果美国决定尽早解除一些制裁，就可以达成一项快速协议——这也是朝鲜在河内峰会上希望达成的协议。但如果特朗普得不到有意义的回报，不管他如何旋转，这可能被视为他的失败。
云说总统希望达成一项协议，但阻止他的是“如果他做了一项糟糕的协议，他将面临的批评的数量”，包括来自他自己政府内部的批评。
2019年6月30日，在朝鲜板门店停战村，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和朝鲜领导人金正恩在非军事区会晤前进行会谈。布兰登·斯米洛夫斯基/法新社通过盖蒂图片社/盖蒂
朝鲜可能会在2020年的选举中占据显著位置。查说，这不是因为这已经成为一个更紧迫的问题，而是因为特朗普的对手可以把他失败的无核化努力说成是外交无能的证据。
尽管与平壤的谈判陷入僵局，特朗普一直要求这样做韩国和日本支付数亿美元接待驻扎在那里的数万名美军。他也对朝鲜的短程导弹试验漠不关心，尽管地区盟友对此表示严重关切。
上周，美国和韩国无法同意关于在朝鲜半岛保留美国军队的额外付款，这增加了特朗普可能撤出部分美国军队的可能性。Cha说这将引发关于联盟未来的严肃问题。
Cha说，这种外交“不仅仅给韩国和日本，也给其他盟友一个信心，即特朗普在第二个任期内会更加友好”。“这是即将到来的更大危机，”他补充道。
查说，成本分摊的问题——无论是在东亚、欧洲还是其他地方——是“系统中真正的难题”。"从特朗普将这些联盟关系货币化的角度来看，这的确是他的缩影。"
云说，结盟的交易方式让人想起“保护骗局”。他警告说，盟友们“不太好”。“这充分说明了政府内部缺乏组织、缺乏流程、缺乏战略，”他补充道。"这将是本届政府外交政策的叙述。"
查认为，从韩国撤军也将是“你能给中国和朝鲜的最大礼物”。
“他们不庆祝圣诞节，但这是一份圣诞礼物，”他谈到中国看着特朗普从他的盟友那里索要更多的钱。“它正在亚洲赢得影响力，而无需做任何事情，只需看着美国开枪打自己的脚。”
云说，地区盟友开始怀疑美国对北方无核化的承诺。
"我们还要多久才能抵制韩国对其核武器的要求？"他问道。“我认为这是我们必须考虑的一个非常基本的问题。”
无论谁赢得2020年大选，朝鲜问题都不会消失。“除非到2021年有所改变，否则他们将成为一个拥有可生存核能力的核大国，”查解释道。
查补充说，这将迫使下一任总统做出选择。“他们是要继续宣传我们旨在无核化的幻想，还是我们必须以某种方式应对这些幻想？”
查说，这意味着确保朝鲜不会使用核武器，并确保没有“核泄漏”——即允许核技术扩散到其他国家。“这将是一个非常困难的选择。”
云说，这可以采取军备控制谈判的形式，而不是无核化谈判。他解释说，这可能意味着核弹头数量和核武器导弹射程的限制。“我认为大多数人没有在尽可能合理的时间内看到完全无核化，”云说。
从平壤方面来看，查相信金将希望特朗普连任四年。“我认为公平地说，所有的‘坏蛋’都希望特朗普获胜，”他开玩笑说，“也许除了伊朗。”
云同意了。“我认为他们肯定希望特朗普连任，”他说。“没有其他总统与朝鲜合作过，这不是因为他们有机会...他愿意与他们打交道，愿意倾听他们的关切，并愿意改变主意。”
“在我看来，毫无疑问，他们不会让白宫里的任何人比特朗普更好。”
2019年10月2日，在韩国首尔的一个火车站，一名男子观看电视新闻屏幕，屏幕上显示的是文件片段，报道了朝鲜导弹发射的最新进展。
KIM JONG UN WANTS TRUMP TO WIN IN 2020, FORMER WHITE HOUSE ADVISER SAYS: 'ALL THE BAD GUYS WANT TRUMP TO WIN'
Two former senior U.S. diplomats have warned that President Donald Trump's North Korea strategy is unlikely to bear fruit in the near future, as an ominous end-of-year ultimatum from Kim Jong Un looms over stalled negotiations.
Former United States Special Representative for North Korea Policy Joseph Yun and former Director for Asian Affairs in the White House's National Security Council Victor Cha both spoke to Newsweek at the end of a barren year for American and North Korean negotiators, with no real progress made on denuclearization or sanctions relief.
Trump and his supporters consider North Korea a foreign policy win, and the president regularly claims that the historic detente between him and Kim could not have been achieved under any of his predecessors.
The unexpected outbreak of diplomacy certainly allowed both nations to step back from the brink of conflict in early 2018. But since the historic summit in Singapore in June last year optimism has waned, particularly after the collapse of the second summit in Hanoi, Vietnam.
As 2019 draws to a close, negotiators remain at loggerheads over how, when and to what extent North Korea should denuclearize in exchange for sanctions relief. In the meantime, Pyongyang has continued developing its military capabilities and entrenching its nuclear status.
Yun, who was a U.S. special representative from October 2016 to March 2018, said that since Hanoi the North Koreans "have been very, very difficult."
North Korea has reverted to its belligerent brand of diplomacy, insulting Trump and key aides such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Pyongyang has warned that the U.S. should expect a "Christmas gift" if no progress is made by then.
"I think they do feel that, in Hanoi, Trump kind of stiffed them," Yun explained. Kim traveled all the way to Hanoi—an especially long journey seeing as he travels using a personalized train—expecting a deal, but Trump did not go for the one on offer.
Yun suggested that a key frustration in Pyongyang is the feeling that the U.S. has not fully recognized the country's nuclear and missile capabilities. Yun said Kim thought that by showing his military strength he could extract a higher price from the U.S., but it has not worked out that way.
Though Kim has resumed regular short- and medium-range missile tests, he has held off intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or nuclear warhead demonstrations. Observers have warned that a test of such significant weapons might be the "gift" Kim is preparing.
Cha was tipped to be Trump's next ambassador to South Korea, but fell out of favor in late 2017 after publicly denouncing suggestions of a limited strike against North Korea. He also served as President George W. Bush's top adviser on North Korea.
"We can never say never," Cha told Newsweek when asked of the chances of a deal before the end of 2019. That said, all the signs point to "some sort of a big demonstration" by the North in the coming week.
Whether the test is of an ICBM, a new type of solid rocket propellant engine or something else, Cha said it will be designed to "demonstrate more survivability" of North Korea's capabilities.
Either way, Cha said he does not think the world is back on a path to "fire and fury," with the U.S. and North Korea facing off and threatening nuclear war. "I don't think Trump has the stomach for going back to that in a campaign year," he explained. "That's not a good position for him to be in."
Yun agreed that a deal would be better for the president's political fortunes than a nuclear standoff. However, he also said he thinks Trump would have to respond to an ICBM test, even if it risks a fresh diplomatic crisis.
"Trump has to react very strongly, I think that would force his hand," Yun explained, adding that much of the president's "boasting" centers on stopping ICBM and nuclear tests.
Cha suggested that a quick deal could be secured if the U.S. decided to lift some sanctions early—the same kind of deal the North wanted at the Hanoi summit. But this might be seen as a defeat for Trump if he does not get something significant in return, regardless of how he spins it.
Yun said that the president would like a deal, but what is stopping him is "the amount of criticism that he would face if he made a bad deal," including from within his own administration.
President Donald Trump and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un talk before a meeting in the Demilitarized Zone on June 30, 2019, in the truce village of Panmunjom, North Korea.
North Korea could feature prominently in the 2020 election. Cha said this is not because it has become a more pressing issue, but rather because Trump's opponent can frame his failed denuclearization efforts as evidence of diplomatic incompetence.
While negotiations with Pyongyang have stalled, Trump has been demanding that South Korea and Japan pay hundreds of millions of dollars more to host tens of thousands of U.S. troops based there. He has also been blasé about the North's short-range missile tests, despite serious concern from regional allies.
Last week, the U.S. and South Korea were unable to agree on additional payments to retain U.S. troops on the peninsula, raising the possibility that Trump may withdraw a portion of America's forces. Cha said this will prompt serious questions about the future of the alliance.
Such diplomacy "doesn't give—not just South Korea and Japan but other allies—a whole lot of confidence that Trump in a second term is going to be more ally-friendly," Cha said. "That's the bigger crisis that's coming," he added.
The issue of cost-sharing—whether in East Asia, Europe or elsewhere—is "a real wrench in the system," Cha said. "It really epitomizes Trump in the sense that he monetizes these alliance relationships."
The transactional approach to alliance is reminiscent of a "protection racket," Yun said. "That doesn't go down well" with allies, he warned. "It speaks volumes about lack of organization, lack of process, lack of strategy within the administration," he added. "That will be the narrative of this administration's foreign policy."
Withdrawing U.S. troops from the South would also be "the biggest gift that you could give to China and North Korea," Cha argued.
"They don't celebrate Christmas but it's a Christmas gift," he said of China watching Trump exact more money from his allies. "It's winning influence in Asia without having to do anything, just watching the United States shoot itself in the foot."
Yun said that regional allies are starting to doubt America's commitment to Northern denuclearization.
"How long is it until that we can resist South Korean calls for their own nuclear weapons?" he asked. "I think that's a very fundamental question that we have to think about."
Whoever wins the 2020 election, the North Korea issue is not going away. "Unless something changes by 2021, they will be a nuclear power with a survivable nuclear capability," Cha explained.
This will force the next president to make a choice, Cha added. "Are they going to continue to propagate the fiction that we're aimed at denuclearization or are we going to have to deal with them in some way?"
This means making ensure the North is deterred from using nuclear weapons and to ensure that there is no "nuclear leakage"—i.e. allowing nuclear technology to spread to other nations—Cha said. "It's going to be a very difficult choice."
This could take the form of arms control talks, rather than denuclearization negotiations, Yun said. This might mean limitations on the number of warheads and the range that nuclear-armed missiles could reach, he explained. "I think most people do not see complete denuclearization within a reasonable time period as possible," Yun said.
From Pyongyang's side, Cha believes Kim will be hoping for another four years of Trump. "I think it's fair to say that all the 'bad guys' want Trump to win," he joked, "maybe with the exception of Iran."
Yun concurred. "I think they definitely want Trump to be re-elected," he said. "No other president has worked with North Korea, and that's not because they had the opportunity...he is willing to deal with them, willing to listen to their concerns, and willing to change his mind."
"There's no question in my mind that they're not going to get anyone better in the White House than Trump."
A man watches a television news screen reporting latest developments on North Korea's missile launch as the screen shows file footage, at a railway station in Seoul, South Korea on October 2, 2019.
