唐纳德·特朗普总统和朝鲜最高领导人金正恩都面临巨大压力，要求他们在年底前达成某种协议，推进历史性的无核化换和平进程，但专家担心会出现更危险的结果，因为双方在2019年最后几周只会加剧紧张局势。
朝鲜的年轻统治者将达成协议的年终最后期限定在4月份明显没有耐心了随着官方媒体对美国方面被视为挑衅的举动发出越来越严厉的警告。在周二的联合国安理会会议上，美国国务卿麦克·庞贝呼吁国际社会对朝鲜的核武器和常规武器计划实施制裁后，平壤方面做出了可能是迄今为止最严重的反击。
官方的朝鲜中央通讯社援引朝鲜外交部发言人的话说:“我们没有什么可失去的，我们准备采取与美国选择的任何措施相对应的对策。”。“通过举行这次会议，美国做了一件愚蠢的事，这件事将会自食其果，并决定性地帮助我们就选择哪种方式做出了明确的决定。”
外交部副部长李泽松上周警告说，美国将在这个假期收到什么样的“圣诞礼物”，越来越多的迹象表明，愤怒的金正日很快准备打破自己强加的暂停核武器和洲际弹道导弹试验的禁令。
“朝鲜有100%的可能性会做一些升级的事情——问题是什么，”国家利益中心韩国研究项目的高级主任哈里·卡齐亚尼斯告诉记者新闻周刊。
“如果金正日试验核武器或军用洲际弹道导弹，那么特朗普总统会觉得自己受到了侮辱，因为他违背了对他的个人承诺，”他补充道。“这意味着为最大压力2.0做好准备:更多制裁、更恶劣的推特和核战争威胁。这一次没有像2018年韩国冬季奥运会那样的天然出口匝道，在那里各方都有理由后退。”
2月28日，在越南河内索菲特传奇大都会酒店举行的第二届美朝首脑会议上，唐纳德·特朗普总统(左)和朝鲜领导人金正恩(右)在双边会谈中亮相。双方未能在这次决定性的聚会上达成协议，被广泛视为和平进程中的一个转折点。
2018年平昌冬奥会为金正日与韩国总统文在寅的接触奠定了基础，这一提议最终导致了朝韩之间的和平谈判和与美国的直接对话。长期敌对双方在2017年爆发了一年的核紧张局势后，言辞空前升温，但尽管特朗普和金正日连续三次举行峰会，但未能达成协议，这可能意味着紧张局势再次爆发，或者更糟。
但这可能会让这两个人失望，他们从20世纪50年代帮助引发冷战的冲突开始，就一直试图通过将技术上仍处于战争状态的两个国家聚集在一起创造历史。随着12月的日子一天天过去，美国和平研究所的朝鲜问题高级专家弗兰克·奥姆说，这两个人很可能都处于压力之下。
“金正日可能感受到了一定的压力，希望在解除制裁和改善美朝关系方面取得切实成果。他向他的人民承诺，他们将不再需要勒紧裤带，政府将在经济发展方面取得长足进步。此外，自2018年初以来，他一直花费个人资本与华盛顿和首尔进行外交接触，”奥姆在2012年至2017年期间担任五角大楼朝鲜问题高级顾问，他告诉记者新闻周刊。
他说洲际弹道导弹或核试验可能会阻碍与朝鲜唯一真正的经济命脉中国的联系。尽管金正恩领导下的平壤与北京的关系比他的前任稍冷，但平壤最终还是依赖其邻国发展旅游业，食物援助和所谓的违反制裁的贸易，这意味着“金肯定在权衡各种相关因素，并仍对年底达成协议持开放态度，”奥姆说。
几千英里之外——但在朝鲜洲际弹道导弹的射程之内——白宫也可能感到有必要拿出成果，尤其是在朝鲜周日报道在苏海卫星发射站进行“非常重要的测试”之际，进一步的证据表明金正日可能正在为2017年11月以来的首次洲际弹道导弹测试或其他类型的太空发射做准备。
“我认为特朗普总统也感受到了与朝鲜达成协议的一定压力。奥姆说，他希望能够在选举年宣传外交政策的胜利，避免朝鲜的重大挑衅。然而，他指出，“如果不是不可能的话，也是不太可能在年底前举行另一次美朝峰会”，这完全是因为计划这样一次会议的后勤工作。
卡齐亚尼斯表示同意，称“特朗普肯定希望在2020年选举周期前取得一项重大外交政策成就，而朝鲜可能就是这一成就。”与此同时，“如果金正日的新道路因洲际弹道导弹试验而走向天空，那么2020年很可能意味着有史以来最严重的美朝危机，”他争辩道。"金必须明智地选择。"
10月2日，朝鲜从元山附近海域试射了新的Pukkusong-3潜射弹道导弹。韩国军方称，该武器飞行了280英里，达到了565英里的高度。朝鲜今年恢复了大部分短程武器的测试，但在10月份进行了进一步测试，自2016年以来首次发射了潜射弹道导弹。
华盛顿和平壤之间初露端倪的缓和的转折点，似乎是他们二月份在越南首都河内举行的第二次双边峰会。包括卡齐亚尼斯在内的许多观察家预测，在特朗普突然以一种策略退出谈判之前，将会达成某种协议当时许多人指责时任国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿。
即使在博尔顿于9月份被解职后，特朗普政府似乎仍保持着对谈判的强硬立场。尽管特朗普、金正日和穆恩6月份在朝韩边境举行了会晤，但11月份在瑞典早些时候结束工作级别会谈的是朝鲜。平壤代表团辩称，华盛顿方面未能在先前的条款上做出让步，解除朝鲜对自卫如此珍视的大规模杀伤性武器。
谈判桌上的具体内容从未得到官方证实，但Aum提出了他所谓的“临时协议的轮廓”。
他解释道:“朝鲜将关闭并允许核查员进入宁边的主要核设施、浦项里的主要核试验场以及东昌里的导弹引擎试验场。”。“美国将同意‘结束战争’宣言，提供人道主义援助，交换联络处，加强人民之间的交流，并继续降低美韩联合军事演习的水平。”
“双方只需要在棘手的问题上更灵活一点，”奥姆说，他认为朝鲜可以在无核化措施、冻结导弹和核活动方面接受更多，而美国可以在部分制裁减免和减少该地区军事行动方面走得更远。
DONALD TRUMP AND KIM JONG UN FACE YEAR-END DEAL PRESSURE, BUT HEAD TOWARD NEW CRISIS
President Donald Trump and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un are both facing substantial pressure to come up with some sort of agreement to advance their historic denuclearization-for-peace process by the end of the year, but experts feared a more dangerous outcome as both sides only ratcheted up tensions in the final weeks of 2019.
North Korea, whose young ruler set the year-end deadline for a deal back in April, has been noticeably running out of patience as state media broadcast increasingly stern warnings against moves viewed as provocative on the U.S.' part. After Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on the international community to enforce sanctions in response to North Korea's nuclear and conventional weapons program at Tuesday's United Nations Security Council meeting, Pyongyang hit back with what may be its most serious retort yet.
"We have nothing to lose more, and we are ready to take a countermeasure corresponding to anything that the U.S. opts for," the official Korean Central News Agency cited a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson as saying. "By holding the meeting, the U.S. did a foolish thing which will boomerang on it, and decisively helped us make a definite decision on what way to choose."
Vice Foreign Minister Ri Thae Song warned last week that it's up to the U.S. which "Christmas gift" it will receive this holiday season and signs are mounting that an exasperated Kim was soon ready to break his self-imposed moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
"The chances are 100 percent that North Korea will do something that is escalatory—the questions is what," Harry Kazianis, senior director of the Center for the National Interest's Korean Studies program, told Newsweek.
"If Kim tests a nuclear weapon or military-grade ICBM, then President Trump will feel personally insulted, that Kim broke a personal pledge to him," he added. "That means get ready for maximum pressure 2.0: More sanctions, more nasty tweets and threats of nuclear war. And this time there is no natural off-ramp like the 2018 winter games in South Korea, where all sides had a reason to back off."
President Donald Trump (L) and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (R) are seen during their bilateral meeting at the second U.S.-North Korea summit at the Sofitel Legend Metropole hotel in Hanoi, Vietnam on February 28. The failure of both sides to attain a deal at this fateful gathering has been widely seen as a turning point in the peace process.
The 2018 Winter Olympic Games in Pyeongchang served as the basis for Kim's outreach to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, an overture that ultimately led to inter-Korean peace talks and direct dialogue with the U.S. The unprecedented warming in rhetoric between the longtime foes came after a year of nuclear-fueled tensions in 2017, but a failure to attain an agreement despite three successive summits between Trump and Kim could mean a return to flaring tensions, or worse.
But this would probably prove a disappointment for both men, who have set out to make history by bringing together two nations still technically at war since the 1950s conflict that helped set off the Cold War. As the days of December wear on, United States Institute of Peace senior North Korea expert Frank Aum said both men were likely under stress.
"Kim probably feels a certain amount of pressure to get tangible results with regard to sanctions relief and improved US-DPRK relations. He has promised his people that they would no longer need to engage in belt-tightening and that the regime would make strides in economic development. In addition, he has expended personal capital since early 2018 to engage diplomatically with Washington and Seoul," Aum, who served as the Pentagon's senior adviser for North Korea from 2012 to 2017, told Newsweek.
He said an ICBM or nuclear test could hinder ties to North Korea's only real economic lifeline, China. Though Pyongyang under Kim has experienced somewhat chillier ties with Beijing than under his predecessors, Pyongyang ultimately relied on its neighbor for tourism, food assistance and alleged sanctions-defying trade, meaning "Kim is certainly weighing the various factors involved and is still open to reaching a deal by year's end," according to Aum.
Thousands of miles away—but within range of North Korea's ICBMs—the White House too was likely feeling a need to produce results, especially amid North Korean reports Sunday of a "very important test" at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, further evidence Kim may be gearing up for his first ICBM test since November 2017, or another type of space launch.
"I think President Trump also feels a certain amount of pressure to reach a deal with North Korea. He wants to be able to tout a foreign policy victory and avoid a major North Korean provocation during an election year," Aum said, noting, however, that "it's very unlikely, if not impossible, for another US-DPRK summit before the end of the year" due to the sheer logistics of planning such an event.
Kazianis agreed, saying, "Trump would surely want a big foreign policy accomplishment before the 2020 election cycle, and North Korea could be that accomplishment." At the same time, "if Kim's new path heads skyward thanks to an ICBM test, then 2020 will most likely mean the worst U.S.-North Korea crisis in living memory," he argued. "Kim must choose wisely."
North Korea test fires its new Pukguksong-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile from the waters off of Wonsan, October 2. South Korea's military said the weapon flew 280 miles and reached an altitude of 565 miles. North Korea resumed testing mostly short-rage weapons this year, but took it further in October with its first SLBM launch since 2016.
The turning point for what was a budding detente between Washington and Pyongyang appeared to be their second bilateral summit that took place in February in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi. Many observers, including Kazianis, predicted some sort of agreement would be reached until Trump abruptly walked away from talks in a tactic many at the time blamed on then-national security adviser John Bolton.
Even after Bolton's dismissal in September, the Trump administration appeared to maintain its hard-line stance toward negotiations and, despite a meeting at the inter-Korean border between Trump, Kim and Moon in June, it was North Korea that ended November's working-level talks early in Sweden. The Pyongyang delegation argued that Washington had failed to budge on its previous terms in ridding North Korea of the weapons of mass destruction the country holds so dear to its self-defense.
What exactly was on the table has never been officially confirmed, but Aum laid out what he called "the contours of an interim deal."
"North Korea would shut down and allow inspectors at its main nuclear facility at Yongbyon, its main nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, and its missile engine test site at Dongchang-ri," he explained. "The U.S. would agree to an 'end of war' declaration, provide humanitarian assistance, exchange liaison offices, enhance people-to-people exchanges, and continue a reduced level of joint U.S.-ROK military exercises."
"Both sides just need to be a little more flexible on the hard points," Aum said, arguing North Korea could accept more in terms of denuclearizing measures and a freezing missile and nuclear activities, while the U.S. could go further in partial sanctions relief and reducing military moves in the region.
