伊朗正遭受40年来最严重的动乱,全国各地的城市被数千名反政府抗议者瘫痪。
尽管是由油价飙升引发的,但愤怒的爆发已经持续了很长时间。伊朗人生活在独裁政权下,与生活水平下降和经济衰退作斗争,而美国为扼杀德黑兰核计划和地区影响力而实施的严厉制裁加剧了这种状况。
数百名——据美国当局称,可能超过1000名——不同政见者在街上被政权枪手砍倒。人权组织指责当局隐藏死者的尸体以隐瞒真实死亡人数,同时限制互联网以阻止幸存者相互交流和与世界交流。
据在伊朗革命中被废黜的沙阿·穆罕默德·礼萨·巴列维最后幸存的儿子和继承人礼萨·巴列维称,报道中的“大屠杀”显示了该政权的绝望和残酷。
巴列维谈过了新闻周刊1979年他的家人逃离该国后,他仍流亡在华盛顿特区。他一直呼吁用世俗民主来取代现行制度。
巴列维说,当前的动荡表明德黑兰政府普遍愤怒,唯一的解决办法是恢复世俗民主——不管他是否直接参与其中。
我们应该如何描述伊朗当前的动荡?
我国的抗议活动是由一种基础广泛的基层愿望驱动的,这种愿望就是要取代这个政权。燃料价格上涨200%可能是最近一轮广泛的全国性街头抗议的导火索,但这并没有抓住他们的本质或愿望。
这些抗议代表了对整个政权的拒绝,传达了结束四十年牧师压迫的愿望。要理解这一点,人们所要做的就是在街上倾听我的同胞。
他们不会高喊改革,也不会高喊燃料价格,“我们不想要伊斯兰共和国!”“哈梅内伊,离开这个国家!”数百人为自由事业献出了生命。
安全部队的反应告诉我们当权者的优先事项和心态是什么?
四十年来,我们都知道该政权唯一的优先事项是捍卫和扩大自己的权力和控制,包括丰富自己。这场屠杀并不奇怪。当这样一个政权感到受到威胁时,这正是人们所期望的。
与此同时,我们正目睹安全部队开始脱离政权。结果,伊斯兰共和国被迫进口外国国民,试图控制抗议活动。
这只是表明,该政权将不惜一切代价保护自己,甚至不惜以有效的种族灭绝为代价。尽管如此,人民仍在战斗。他们给我的信息是,“我们应该得到比这更好的。你为什么要抛弃我们?”
什么应该取代伊朗目前的政权?
四十年来,我一直主张在伊朗建立一个世俗的民主制度。我之所以为伊朗倡导这一点,不仅是因为这是确保伊朗人的人权、福祉和幸福的最佳方式,也是因为我认为伊朗人民压倒性地想要并要求这样一个制度。
今天的伊朗年轻一代比以往任何时候都更加意识到,在其他国家,主权在他们自由和自由的社会中是家常便饭。他们希望有同样的机会和自决。
这张未注明日期的照片显示了礼萨·巴列维——伊朗已不复存在的君主制的流亡继承人——发表演讲。巴列维告诉《新闻周刊》,伊朗目前的动荡是对德黑兰独裁政权的直接反应。
在这方面,伊朗是否有可以信任的合法反对派?美国官员此前曾推动伊朗人民圣战者组织等有争议的组织参与进来——你对此有何看法?
这与其说是我的感受,不如说是基本真理。我们的民族愿望是拥有世俗民主,因此伊朗人民将决定哪些团体、政党或个人与我们国家的未来相关并具有建设性。伊朗的未来将由伊朗人决定,而不是由任何外国领导人的顾问决定。
你愿意回到伊朗并参与建立新的治理体系的政治进程吗?
我认为我是伊朗人民的倡导者。我的愿望是支持争取自由和尊严的运动,而不是被任何对伊朗未来政治权力的野心所驱使。
也就是说,我渴望回到伊朗,我将永远在那里支持我们的人民捍卫他们不可剥夺的基本权利,反对任何和所有外国或国内势力。在我们国家向世俗民主的关键过渡中,我打算尽我所能提供适当的指导。
你认为伊朗人民会欢迎王室影响力的回归吗?
未来的政府体制将在宪法程序中受到激烈的辩论。我关注的是这个过程,这些民主习俗,而不是未来的政府制度。
当然,除了这40年的间歇期,我国还有君主服务和传统的历史。所以很自然,许多伊朗人,按照这种历史和文化,对君主制有着密切的关系。
但现在不是君主制或共和制,而是从反伊朗占领军手中夺回我们的国家,发展这一民主秩序及其所有原则、信条和价值观的斗争。
你认为美国目前对伊朗的“最大压力”战略如何
对伊朗人民来说,不幸的是,该政权通过其在该地区和世界各地的邪恶、破坏稳定和敌对行为,引起了许多邻国和自由世界对我国的愤怒。
就制裁限制或减少该政权的资源用于此类行动而言,这是伊朗人民理解和赞赏的。伊朗人意识到,他们首先面临着伊斯兰政权本身最大的社会、政治和经济压力。
因此,我和伊朗人民的关切是摆脱这个政权。人们不会在街上高唱反对制裁的歌曲,而是在全国数百个城市高唱反对这个政权的歌曲。
唐纳德·特朗普总统退出伊朗核协议是对的吗?
我不告诉美国人如何管理他们的国家,我关注的是伊朗。我知道,与这个政权的任何交易或谈判,如果无视伊朗人民及其愿望和要求,都是非法的。
所有仍然渴望通过与该政权谈判找到解决办法的人只能证明他们与伊朗人民的真正愿望和感情是多么脱节。相反,我的重点是消除这个政权对我国人民的最大压力。
特朗普的强硬路线直接压低了普通伊朗人的生活水平——这是一个值得为试图遏制伊朗政权付出的代价吗?
遏制和绥靖已被证明是维持现状的政策。这是一项持续采取相同步骤并期待不同结果的政策。
伊朗人民理解并欣赏这一点,因为该政权被切断了国内外用于压迫的资源。
但伊朗未来的决定性因素将是伊朗人民,而不是我一直告诉我们人民的外交政策。为此,如果任何国家想要与伊朗打交道,它必须与那些对其未来有答案的人打交道:人民,而不是政权。
几十年来,我一直说,西方在支持伊朗人民的运动中可以发挥作用,因为这种支持和团结将降低我们最终胜利的代价。良心的负担沉重地压在所有那些声称自由和自由是价值观的人身上,他们现在出奇地沉默,而此时最需要他们的声音。
白宫应该改变对伊朗的战略吗?
四十年来安抚这个不可改变的政权的努力失败了,难道现在不是采取不同策略的时候吗?
不要试图参与这个政权。上届政府犯了这个错误,给伊朗人民和该地区带来了灾难性的影响。相反,让伊朗人民和世俗民主反对派参与进来。
例如,使用该政权冻结的资产,并将其归还给其合法所有人,即人民。用它来支持罢工基金,让我的同胞有能力进行大规模罢工,并通过广泛、和平的公民抗命使这个政权屈服。
另一个例子是,政府应采取措施促进和保障不间断的互联网接入,并限制该政权宣传自己的能力,同时扼杀我国人民获取信息的机会。
你和特朗普政府官员有联系吗?你对他们的方法有什么建议吗?
这些年来,我向包括美国在内的国际领导人传达了同样一致的信息。
这个信息很简单:当你专注于处理这个非法政权时,你不能为未来制定一个恰当的政策,你必须认识到人民对根本变革的需求,你必须让人民参与进来。我将继续倡导这一信息。
问题不在于这个政权没有改变它的行为,因为它永远不会改变,而在于这个世界没有改变它试图安抚这个政权的行为。
IRANIANS UNDERSTAND TRUMP SANCTIONS, OBAMA NUCLEAR DEAL WAS 'DISASTROUS,' SHAH'S SON SAYS
Iran is being convulsed by its worst unrest for 40 years, with cities across the country paralyzed by thousands of anti-government protesters.
Though sparked by a spike in fuel prices, the explosion of anger has been a long time coming. Iranians are living under an authoritarian regime while battling falling living standards and a faltering economy, exacerbated by crippling American sanctions levied to stifle Tehran's nuclear program and regional influence.
Hundreds—perhaps more than 1,000 according to U.S. authorities—of dissenters have been cut down in the streets by regime gunmen. Human rights groups accuse the authorities of hiding away the bodies of the dead to conceal the true death toll while throttling internet to prevent survivors communicating with each other and the world.
According to Reza Pahlavi—the last surviving son and heir of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, deposed in the Iranian Revolution—the reported "massacre" shows the desperation and ruthlessness of the regime.
Pahlavi spoke to Newsweek from Washington, D.C., where he still lives in exile after his family fled the country in 1979. He has consistently called for a secular democracy to replace the current system.
Pahlavi said the current turmoil is indicative of widespread anger at the government in Tehran, and that the only solution is a rehabilitated secular democracy—whether or not he is directly involved.
How should we characterize the current unrest in Iran?
The protests in our country are driven by a broad-based, grassroots desire to replace this regime. The 200 percent rise in fuel prices may have been the trigger of this latest round of widespread national street protests, but this does not come close to capturing the essence or aspirations of what they have become.
These protests represent a rejection of the regime as a whole and communicate a desire to end forty years of clerical oppression. All one has to do to understand this is to listen to my compatriots in the streets.
They do not chant for reforms, or about fuel prices, they chant, "We don't want the Islamic Republic!" and, "Khamenei, get out of the country!" and by the hundreds they are giving their lives for the cause of freedom.
What does the response of the security forces tell us about the priorities and mindset of those in power?
We have known for forty years that the regime's only priorities are safeguarding and expanding its own power and control, including enriching itself. This massacre is not surprising. It is rather what one expects when such a regime feels threatened.
Simultaneously, we are witnessing the beginning of a peeling away of the security forces from the regime. As a result, the Islamic Republic is forced to import foreign nationals to attempt to control the protests.
This simply shows that the regime will stop at nothing to protect itself, even at the cost of an effective genocide. Yet despite all this, the people are still fighting. The message they give me to tell the world is, "We deserve better than this. Why are you abandoning us?"
What should replace the current regime in Iran?
For four decades I have consistently advocated for a secular, democratic system in Iran. Not only have I advocated this for Iran because it is the best way to ensure the human rights, well-being, and happiness of Iranians but also because it is my sense that the Iranian people overwhelmingly want and demand such a system.
Today's generation of young Iranians, more than ever, are aware of other countries where sovereignty is routine in their liberal and free societies. They would like to have the very same opportunities and self-determination.
This undated photo shows Reza Pahlavi—the exiled heir to Iran's defunct monarchy—giving a speech. Pahlavi told Newsweek that the current unrest in Iran is a direct reaction to the authoritarian regime in Tehran.
Is there any legitimate opposition in Iran that can be trusted in this regard? U.S. officials have previously pushed for the involvement of controversial groups such as the People's Mujahedin of Iran—how do you feel about this?
It is less a matter of how I feel and more about fundamental truths. Our national aspiration is to have a secular democracy and therefore the people of Iran will decide what groups, parties, or individuals are relevant and constructive to our nation's future. The future of Iran is to be decided by Iranians, not by any foreign leader's advisors.
Would you like to return to Iran and be involved in a political process to establish a new system of governance?
I view my role as the advocate of the Iranian people. My aspirations are to support the movement for liberty and dignity and are not driven by any ambition for political power in Iran's future.
That said, I am eager to return to Iran and I will always be there for our people to defend their fundamental and inalienable rights against any and all forces foreign or domestic. I intend to be of assistance in any way that I can to provide proper guidance in our nation's critical transition to a secular democracy.
Do you think the Iranian people would welcome the return of royal influence?
The future system of government will be subject to intense debate in the constitutional process. It is this process, these democratic mores, on which I am focused and not on the future system of government.
Our country has of course, apart from this forty year interlude, a history of monarchic service and tradition. So naturally many Iranians, in line with this history and culture, have an affinity for the monarchy.
But the present moment is not about monarchy or republic, it is about the fight to reclaim our nation from an anti-Iranian occupying force and to develop this democratic order along with all of its principles, tenets, and values.
What do you think of the current U.S. "maximum pressure" strategy on Iran
It is unfortunate for the Iranian people that the regime, through its nefarious, destabilizing and antagonizing behavior in the region and across the world has brought the ire of so many of its neighbors and of the free world on our country.
To the extent that the sanctions limit or reduce the regime's resources from being used for such actions, this is something the people of Iran understand and appreciate. Iranians realize that they are first and foremost under maximum pressure socially, politically and economically from the Islamic regime itself.
Therefore, my concern and that of the Iranian people is getting rid of this regime. The people don't chant in the streets against sanctions, they chant against this regime in hundreds of cities across the country.
Was President Donald Trump right to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal?
I do not tell Americans how to run their country, my focus is Iran. I know that any deal or negotiation with this regime and which ignores the Iranian people and their desires and demands are illegitimate.
All those who still aspire to finding a solution by negotiating with this regime only prove how out of touch they are with the real aspirations and sentiments of the Iranian people. My focus, rather, is on removing the maximum pressure of this regime on our people.
Trump's hardline approach is directly pushing down living standards of normal Iranians—is this a price worth paying to try and contain the Iranian regime?
Containment and appeasement have proven to be the policy of sustaining the status quo. It is the policy of continuously taking the same steps and expecting different results.
To the extent that the regime is cut off from the resources used to oppress at home and abroad, the Iranian people understand and appreciate that.
But the determining factor in Iran's future will be the Iranian people not foreign policies, as I have always told our people. To that end, if any nation wants to deal with Iran it must deal with those who hold the answers to its future: the people, not the regime.
I have said for decades that the West has a role to play in supporting the Iranian people in their movement because this support and solidarity will lower the cost of our ultimate victory. The burden of conscience lays heavily on all those who claim liberty and freedom as values and are astonishingly silent now, when their voices are most needed.
Should the White House change its strategy on Iran?
After forty years of failed attempts to appease this irreformable regime, isn't it time for a different strategy?
Do not try to engage this regime. The previous administration made this mistake to disastrous effect for the Iranian people and for the region. Instead, engage the Iranian people and the secular democratic opposition.
For example, use the frozen assets of this regime and return them to their rightful owners, the people. Use it to support a strike fund to give my compatriots the ability to go on mass strikes and bring this regime to its knees through widespread, peaceful civil disobedience.
As an additional example, the administration should take measures to promote and safeguard uninterrupted access to the internet, and limit the regime's ability to promote its own propaganda while it asphyxiates our people's access to information.
Are you in touch with Trump administration officials and do you give advice on their approach?
For all of these years, I have communicated the same, consistent message to international leaders, including those in the United States.
That message has been simple: you cannot properly develop a policy for the future when you are focused on dealing with this illegitimate regime, you must recognize the people's demand for fundamental change, and you must engage the people. I will continue to advocate this message.
The problem is not that the regime has not changed it's behavior, because it never will, but rather that the world has not changed its behavior looking to appease this regime.