一位顶级经济学家表示,唐纳德·特朗普总统尚未解决的对华贸易战正在严重损害美国经济,除非华盛顿和北京很快达成协议,否则经济衰退的风险将大幅增加。
特朗普表示,与中国就各种贸易问题达成的“第一阶段”协议即将完成。
但在特朗普或他的中国同行习近平主席签署任何协议之前,数千亿美元商品关税两者之间的交易仍将继续。
金融咨询公司穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪在2007年11月20日露面时警告说,贸易战会对经济造成破坏性影响MSNBC的克里斯·海耶斯全押周三晚上演出。
赞迪说:“如果你把这追溯到一年前,我们将会看到非常强劲的经济、较低的失业率、工资增长正在加快,特别是在低端——当然,最低工资的提高确实有所帮助。”。
“但是后来我们打了贸易战。贸易战对经济造成了非常严重的损害,事实上,如果总统决定继续进行贸易战,衰退风险将会上升。
“我认为[·特朗普]正在把贸易战、经济和他的连任联系起来。他可能会想办法和中国人达成某种保全面子的协议。
“但如果他不这么做,那么经济真的会陷入困境,衰退风险会非常高。我们就快到了。我们只是被非常糟糕的经济政策边缘化了。”
赞迪还警告说,显示低失业率、强劲的国内生产总值增长和稳定的通货膨胀等主要经济数据掩盖了挣扎度日的普通美国人的不同现实。
他指了指最近美联储的调查调查发现,十分之四的美国人找不到400美元来支付紧急开支,许多人需要借钱来支付。其他人根本负担不起费用。
赞迪说:“我认为这非常有力地说明了一点,尽管标题是好的经济消息,但它确实还没有被许多美国工人阶级所接受。”。
周二,特朗普建议给白宫的记者与中国的交易迫在眉睫,尽管当前香港问题可能是对任何协议的封锁。
“我和习主席关系很好。我们正处于一项非常重要的交易的最后阵痛之中,我想你们可以说是有史以来最重要的交易之一。进展得非常顺利,”特朗普说。
TRUMP'S TRADE WAR DOING 'VERY SERIOUS DAMAGE' TO U.S. ECONOMY, RECESSION RISKS 'VERY HIGH' WITHOUT CHINA DEAL: ECONOMIST
resident Donald Trump's unresolved trade war with China is seriously damaging the American economy and, unless a deal is made soon between Washington and Beijing, the risks of recession will substantially increase, a top economist said.
Trump has said a "phase one" agreement with China on the various trade issues is nearly complete.
But until anything is signed by Trump or his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in goods traded between the two will remain.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at financial consultancy Moody's Analytics, warned about the trade war's damaging economic impact during his appearance on MSNBC's All In With Chris Hayesshow Wednesday night.
"If you roll this back to a year ago, we were on track to seeing a very strong economy, lower unemployment, wage growth was picking up, particularly at the low end—of course, minimum wage hikes really did help there," Zandi said.
"But then we had the trade war. The trade war has done very serious damage to the economy and, in fact, if the president decides to continue to pursue the trade war, recession risks will rise.
"I think [Trump] is connecting the dots between the trade war, the economy, and his re-election. He'll probably figure out some way to come to some kind of face-saving arrangement with the Chinese.
"But if he doesn't, then the economy is really going to struggle and recession risks are going to be very high. We were nearly there. We just got side-tracked by really bad economic policy."
Zandi also warned that the headline economic data showing the likes of low unemployment, robust GDP growth, and stable inflation were masking a different reality for ordinary Americans who are struggling to get by.
He pointed to a recent survey by the Federal Reserve, which found that four in ten Americans could not find $400 to cover an emergency expense and that many would need to borrow money to do so. Others simply would not be able to cover the expense at all.
"I think that makes the point very strongly that despite the headline good economic news, it really has not filtered down yet to many, many working-class Americans," Zandi said.
On Tuesday, Trump suggested to reporters in the White House that a deal with China is imminent, although the current Hong Kong issue could be a blockade to any agreement.
"I have a very good relationship with President Xi. We're in the final throes of a very important deal, I guess you could say one of the most important deals in trade ever. It's going very well," Trump said.