唐纳德·特朗普的制裁奏效了吗？伊朗的经济痛苦造成了动荡，削弱了德黑兰国内外的政府。
大赦国际周二在一份报告中称，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在反对燃料价格上涨的暴力示威中杀害了至少106名抗议者。总部设在伦敦的人权组织援引“可信的报告”称，实际死亡人数可能要高得多，来自伊朗的报告称已有多达200人丧生。
唐纳德·特朗普的制裁奏效了吗？2019年11月17日，在中部城市伊斯法罕，伊朗人在抗议汽油价格上涨的示威游行中检查被抗议者点燃的公共汽车残骸。
自从周日针对汽油价格突然上涨50%的街头抗议开始以来，伊朗政府没有提供任何伤亡数字。据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗人已经遭受美国旨在迫使德黑兰放弃其核计划和弹道导弹计划以及对地区代理人的支持的严厉制裁，他们捣毁了店面，焚烧车辆，洗劫了包括首都在内的主要城市的建筑。
大赦国际发布伤亡报告的前一天，伊朗最强大的安全部队伊斯兰革命卫队警告示威者，在经历了几天的暴力骚乱后，他们将面临“决定性行动”，这标志着一场大规模镇压即将来临。与此同时，强硬派《克伦邦日报》周二称，伊朗保守的司法机构同意绞刑是对抗议领袖的适当惩罚。
伊朗政府在其两个最重要的客户国家也受到攻击，伊拉克和黎巴嫩的抗议活动仍在继续。
过去六周，暴力街头示威和枪击事件震惊了伊拉克，成为愤怒的暴民，指责总理阿迪勒·阿卜杜勒·迈赫迪的政府腐败猖獗，任人唯亲，基本服务崩溃，并要求将其驱逐出境。
但他们愤怒的主要焦点是邻国伊朗，示威者认为伊朗是迈赫迪政府背后的引导者，因此最终要为其失败负责。高喊“出去，出去，伊朗！”抗议者焚烧了什叶派圣城卡尔巴拉的伊朗领事馆，并焚烧了伊朗国旗。在强调伊朗在该国巨大作用的回应中，由德黑兰武装、训练和支付费用的伊拉克民兵向抗议者开火，迄今已造成300多人死亡，约15，000人受伤。尽管如此，示威仍在继续。
泄露的文件获得者纽约时报和拦截强调伊朗在伊拉克事务中的深深嵌入。
在黎巴嫩，对官员腐败和国家经济危机的愤怒引发了类似的抗议浪潮，这一浪潮已经推翻了萨阿德·哈里里总理的政府，并挫败了组建新政府的企图。虽然没有伊拉克的示威那么暴力，但抗议活动呼吁新的技术官僚领导人不要受制于该国传统的基督徒、逊尼派和什叶派权力划分。这些示威威胁到真主党的控制，真主党是黎巴嫩最强大的民兵组织，其政治部门是黎巴嫩议会最大集团的关键成员。真主党也是伊朗在该地区最古老和最重要的什叶派代理人。
伊拉克和黎巴嫩的动荡可以被视为阿拉伯之春2.0——反对德黑兰、巴格达和贝鲁特政权的又一波民众起义，这些政权的领导人已经成为百万富翁，而普通公民则在街头与堆积如山的垃圾、每天仅工作几个小时的受污染的水和电力抗争。加剧黎巴嫩困境的是沉重的国债和外汇紧缩，这迫使银行关闭，阻止支付工资和停止进口外国商品。
2011年阿拉伯之春抗议的第一版在突尼斯产生了一个新生的民主政府，在埃及产生了军事镇压，在利比亚和叙利亚产生了血腥的内战。现在说当前抗议的走向还为时过早。但这一轮示威的不同之处在于抗议者将矛头指向伊朗。过去几十年来，伊朗通过精心培育真主党、伊拉克和叙利亚的什叶派政党和民兵等代理人，已经成为中东最有影响力的大国。
尽管伊朗人此前曾抗议政府的紧缩措施，但这是德黑兰的地区影响力首次受到其两个最重要的客户国家的挑战。在伊拉克和黎巴嫩，抗议者都包括伊朗一直视为其支持支柱的什叶派社区。
华盛顿近东政策研究所的黎巴嫩什叶派政治专家哈宁·卡扎菲告诉记者:“当官员腐败发生时，人们会责怪他们的统治者，事实上黎巴嫩和伊拉克的统治者都是伊朗。”新闻周刊。
自1979年伊斯兰革命以来，伊朗设法填补了中东因巴以冲突、美国入侵伊拉克和该地区其他动荡而出现的一些主要权力真空。其结果是伊朗的军事和政治影响力在中东蔓延，地区力量平衡从美国支持的逊尼派阿拉伯国家转向伊朗及其什叶派代理人。
德黑兰在1982年开始扩大其地区影响力，成立了黎巴嫩什叶派真主党民兵组织，该组织在贝鲁特屠杀美国海军陆战队，将以色列占领军赶出黎巴嫩，并在去年成为黎巴嫩联合政府的关键人物。美国军队在2003年推翻伊拉克独裁者萨达姆·侯赛因后，伊朗支持的政治家开始控制伊拉克议会和军队。在叙利亚内战期间，伊朗革命卫队动员真主党和其他什叶派代理人保卫巴沙尔·阿萨德总统的同盟政权。在也门，伊朗的军事援助帮助叛军胡塞武装部落流血牺牲了沙特领导的阿拉伯联盟，试图恢复被推翻的逊尼派政府的权力。
在伊拉克和黎巴嫩，伊朗的问题是未能将军事和政治成就转化为社会经济收益。“换句话说，伊朗没有把食物放在桌子上，”卡扎菲说。
摆在桌面上的食物和其他治理问题从来都不是伊朗或其代理人的优先事项，他们把在伊拉克和黎巴嫩的政治影响力集中在提高伊朗在该地区的军事地位上。然而，在伊拉克，省级动员部队等代理人也窃取公共资金来支持他们支持伊朗的军事活动。华盛顿智库中东研究所的该地区专家兰达·斯利姆说:“他们成了腐败和敲诈勒索的典型代表。”。
她补充说，在黎巴嫩，真主党“未能满足公众的期望，即一旦他们成为政府的一部分，他们的责任包括有效管理政府资金和经济。”
结果，伊朗在普通伊拉克人和黎巴嫩人中的地位受到严重损害。随着伊拉克各地针对伊朗的街头抗议持续不断，上周在伊拉克国家足球队在世界杯资格赛中以2比1击败伊朗后，这种情绪的另一个迹象在巴格达显而易见。一群欢欣鼓舞的人诅咒伊朗少将卡西姆·索莱马尼，革命卫队精英圣城军的首领，他最近在巴格达指挥镇压示威者。斯利姆说:“许多伊拉克人觉得他们羞辱了一个曾经羞辱过他们的国家。”。
现在的问题是抗议者是否能把他们的愤怒转化为政治力量，在投票站挑战伊朗的代理人，以及伊朗是否会允许抗议者要求的改变，以降低其影响力。华盛顿战略与国际研究中心中东项目负责人乔恩·奥特曼说:“我们才刚刚进入第二局。”。
许多观察家预计，随着抗议者要求结束伊朗的腐败影响，以及德黑兰的代理人为捍卫宗派政治而战，黎巴嫩和伊拉克的街头将会出现一场旷日持久的战斗，而宗派政治一开始就让伊朗对其政府拥有如此强大的控制权。
BECAUSE OF DONALD TRUMP SANCTIONS, IRAN GETS WEAKER AS PROTESTS ESCALATE AT HOME AND IN IRAQ AND LEBANON
Are Donald Trump's sanctions working? Iran's economic pain has created unrest that is weakening the Tehran government at home and abroad.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards have killed at least 106 protesters in violent demonstrations against fuel price hikes, Amnesty International said in a report Tuesday. The London-based human rights organization, citing "credible reports," said the actual death toll could be far higher, with reports from Iran alleging as many as 200 have been killed.
Are Donald Trump's sanctions working? Iranians inspect the wreckage of a bus set ablaze by protesters during a demonstration against a rise in gasoline prices in the central city of Isfahan on November 17, 2019
The Iranian government has not provided any casualty figures since the street protests began on Sunday in response to an abrupt 50 percent hike in gasoline prices. Iranians, already suffering from the harsh U.S. sanctions aimed at forcing Tehran to abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and its support for regional proxies, smashed storefronts, burned vehicles and ransacked buildings in major cities including the capital, according to Iranian media reports.
Amnesty International's casualty report came a day after Islamic Revolutionary Guards, Iran's most powerful security force, warned demonstrators they faced "decisive action" after days of violent riots, signaling a major crackdown was imminent. Meanwhile, the hardline Kayhan daily newspaper said Tuesday Iran's conservative judiciary agreed that death by hanging was an appropriate punishment for protest leaders.
The Iranian government has been under attack in two of its most important client states as well, with widespread protests continuing in Iraq and Lebanon.
For the past six weeks, violent street demonstrations and gunfire have rocked Iraq as angry mobs, accusing Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi's government of rampant corruption, cronyism and the breakdown of basic services, and demand its ouster.
But the main focus of their anger is neighboring Iran, which the demonstrators regard as the guiding hand behind the Mahdi government and therefore ultimately responsible for its failings. Chanting "Out, out, Iran!", protesters torched an Iranian consulate in the holy Shiite city of Karbala and burned Iranian flags. And in a response that underscored Iran's outsized role in the country, Iraqis militias that are armed, trained and paid by Tehran opened fire on the protesters, killing more than 300 and wounding some 15,000 so far. Still, the demonstrations continue.
Leaked documents obtained by The New York Times and The Intercept underscore just how deeply Iran has embedded itself in Iraqi affairs.
In Lebanon, anger over official corruption and a national economic crisis is driving a similar wave of protests that already has brought down the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and thwarted attempts to form a new government. Though not as violent as the demonstrations in Iraq, the protests are calling for new technocratic leaders who are not beholden to the country's traditional division of power among Christians, Sunnis and Shiites. These demonstrations threaten the grip of Hezbollah, the strongest militia in Lebanon and whose political arm is a key member of the largest bloc in the Lebanese parliament. Hezbollah also is Iran's oldest and most important Shiite proxy in the region.
The unrest in Iraq and Lebanon can be seen as Arab Spring 2.0—another wave of popular uprisings against the regimes in Tehran, Baghdad and Beirut, whose leaders have become millionaires while ordinary citizens contend with mountains of uncollected garbage on their streets, contaminated water and electrical power that works only a few hours a day. Exacerbating Lebanon's woes is a crushing national debt and a foreign currency crunch that has forced banks to close, preventing the payment of salaries and halting the import of foreign goods.
The first version of Arab Spring protests in 2011 produced a fledgling democratic government in Tunisia, a military crackdown in Egypt, and bloody civil wars in Libya and Syria. It's far too early to say where the current protests are headed. But what distinguishes this round of demonstrations is the blame that protesters are heaping on Iran, which has emerged over the past few decades as the most influential power in the Middle East through its careful cultivation of proxies like Hezbollah and various Shiite political parties and militias in Iraq and Syria.
While Iranians have protested government austerity measures before, this is the first time that Tehran's regional influence has been challenged by two of its most important client states. And in both Iraq and Lebanon, the protesters include the same Shiite communities that Iran has always regarded as the pillars of its support.
"When official corruption occurs, people blame their rulers, and the de facto ruler in both Lebanon and Iraq is Iran," Hanin Ghaddar, a Lebanese expert on Shiite politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Newsweek.
Ever since its 1979 Islamic revolution, Iran has managed to fill some of the major power vacuums that opened up in the Middle East as a result of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the U.S. invasion of Iraq and other upheavals in the region. The result has been the spread of Iranian military and political influence across the Middle East and a shift in the regional balance of power away from U.S-backed Sunni Arab countries and toward Iran and its Shiite proxies.
Tehran began to expand its regional influence in 1982 with its creation of Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah militia, which bloodied U.S. Marines in Beirut, drove occupying Israeli troops out of Lebanon and became a key player in Lebanon's coalition government last year. After U.S. forces toppled Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iran-backed politicians came to dominate Iraq's parliament and the country's military. During Syria's civil war, Iran's Revolutionary Guards mobilized Hezbollah and other Shiite proxies to secure the allied regime of President Bashar al Assad. And in Yemen, Iranian military aid has helped rebel Houthi tribesmen bleed a Saudi-led Arab coalition trying to restore the ousted Sunni government to power.
In Iraq and Lebanon, Iran's problem was its failure to translate its military and political successes into socio-economic gains. "In other words, Iran failed to put food on the table," Ghaddar said.
Putting food on the table and other governance issues were never a priority for Iran or its proxies, which focused their political influence in Iraq and Lebanon to advance Iran's military standing in the region. In Iraq, however, proxies such as the Provincial Mobilization Units also pilfered public funds to support their pro-Iranian military activities. "They became the poster boys for corruption and racketeering," said Randa Slim, an expert on the region at the Middle East Institute, a Washington think tank.
And in Lebanon, she added, Hezbollah "failed to meet the public's expectation that once they became part of the government, their responsibilities included effective stewardship of government funds and the economy."
As a result, Iran's standing among ordinary Iraqis and Lebanese has been severely tarnished. As street protests against Iran continue across Iraq, another sign of that sentiment was evident in Baghdad last week after Iraq's national soccer team defeated Iran 2-1 in a World Cup qualifying match. A jubilant crowd cursed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassim Soleimani, the head of the Revolutionary Guards elite Quds Force, who was in Baghdad recently to direct the crackdown on demonstrators. "Many Iraqis felt they had humiliated a country that had humiliated them," Slim said.
The questions now are whether the protesters can translate their anger into political power that can challenge Iran's proxies at the ballot box and whether Iran will allow the changes the protesters are demanding to reduce its influence. "We're only in the second inning of this game," says Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East program at Washington's Center for Strategic & International Studies.
Many observers anticipate a protracted battle in the streets of Lebanon and Iraq as the protesters press their demands for an end to Iran's corrupting influence and Tehran's proxies fight to defend the sectarian politics that gave Iran such a powerful grip on their governments in the first place.
