民主党人乘着对经济和唐纳德·特朗普总统的不满浪潮，再次控制了参议院，在两年前还不可想象的地方取得了进展。
从南部的佐治亚州、南卡罗来纳州和得克萨斯州到中西部的俄亥俄州、堪萨斯州和爱荷华州，反叛的民主党人不仅赢得了胜利，而且以显著的优势获胜，关键人口群体和投票群体发生了显著的变化。
我们是这样走到这一步的：
格鲁吉亚
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，民主党人乔恩·奥索夫预计将赢得美国参议院的连任。Ossoff在2021年的决选中以微弱优势赢得了参议院席位，在今年的竞选中赢得了佐治亚州选民的更多支持，赢得了该州约60%选民的支持。
与民主党人拉斐尔·沃诺克（Raphael Warnock）在2022年的胜利相比，奥索夫能够在白人选民中提高约10个百分点的投票率。
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，年轻选民帮助推动奥索夫在2026年佐治亚州参议员竞选中获胜。30岁以下的选民扩大了对民主党人的支持，从2022年的21点增加到现在的72点。美国广播公司新闻（ABC News）的选民民意调查显示，虽然45至64岁的人在2022年支持共和党候选人8个百分点，但他们今年支持奥索夫11个百分点。
根据美国广播公司新闻网的选民民意调查，奥索夫能够在独立选民中稳步获胜，独立选民占佐治亚州选民的十分之三。三分之二的独立选民投票支持奥索夫，而不是他的共和党挑战者迈克·柯林斯。
与2022年的沃诺克相比，奥索夫在2026年的选举中赢得了白人选民的支持。十分之四的白人选民在今年的竞选中支持奥索夫，而2022年有29%的人支持沃诺克。
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，大约十分之三的佐治亚州参议院选民表示，他们对该国目前的状况感到愤怒。约90%对国家现状感到愤怒的佐治亚州州长选民支持奥索夫。
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，大约四分之三的佐治亚州参议院选民对经济持否定态度，其中大约三分之一的人认为经济很差。在2026年的参议院选举中，大约90%认为美国经济不佳的选民投票给了奥索夫。
根据美国广播公司新闻（ABC News）的选民民意调查，约有60%的佐治亚州参议院选民不赞成特朗普处理总统工作的方式，其中约有一半的选民强烈反对。在今年的竞选中，大约90%不支持特朗普的选民支持奥索夫。
南卡罗来纳州
民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）预计将击败共和党参议员达林·格雷厄姆（Darline Graham），后者在她的哥哥林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）于6月去世后担任该席位。
根据美国广播公司新闻频道（ABC News）的选民民意调查，南卡罗来纳州的黑人选民以85%比12%的比例支持安德鲁斯，占选民的18%，高于民主党人克里斯特尔·马修斯（Krystle Matthews）在2022年对共和党人蒂姆·斯科特（Tim Scott）的支持率，当时黑人选民占选民的22%。
但是今年白人选民大量转向民主党。2022年，白人选民支持斯科特的比例为54个百分点。这次他们仅以14个百分点的优势支持格雷厄姆。
根据美国广播公司的选民民意调查，女性支持安德鲁斯超过格雷厄姆13个百分点。2022年，女性支持斯科特的比例上升了18个百分点。虽然格雷厄姆今年赢得了男子冠军，但她的优势只有个位数，而四年前斯科特的优势是34个百分点。特别是在白人男性中，格雷厄姆的优势约为19个百分点，低于2022年共和党的58个百分点。
根据美国广播公司的选民民意调查，大约十分之四的南卡罗来纳州选民年龄在65岁以上，他们支持格雷厄姆的比例比安德鲁斯高9个百分点。这一差距远远小于斯科特在2022年在这些老年选民中保持的32个百分点的差距。
表示在2024年支持特朗普的选民中，有十分之一在今年投票给安德鲁斯。根据ABC新闻的选民民意调查，卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年的选民中几乎没有人支持格雷厄姆。
根据ABC新闻的选民调查，大学毕业生以18个百分点的优势支持安德鲁斯。这与2020年57%的大学毕业生投票给林赛·格雷厄姆的情况大相径庭。2022年，斯科特以23个百分点的优势赢得了大学毕业生。
根据ABC新闻的选民民意调查，南卡罗来纳州的郊区选民倾向于安德鲁斯7个百分点。2022年，郊区选民以24个百分点的优势支持斯科特。城市选民以27个百分点的优势支持安德鲁斯，比2022年的优势高出一倍多。
爱荷华州
乔希·图雷克预计将赢得爱荷华州参议员竞选，成为自汤姆·哈金2008年当选以来第一位代表爱荷华州进入上议院的民主党人。他的胜利是由独立人士的力量和剥离足够多的特朗普2024选民推动的。
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，爱荷华州自我认同的独立选民更喜欢图雷克约20个百分点。民主党人和共和党人之间的政党转换相对温和，尽管图雷克获得的共和党人（7%）比投票给共和党候选人阿什利·辛森的民主党人（1%）多。
根据美国广播公司新闻频道（ABC News）的选民民意调查，在2024年支持川普的爱荷华州参议院选民中，约有十分之一的人支持图雷克，而很少有哈里斯选民支持辛森。
根据ABC新闻的选民民意调查，爱荷华州的男性选民支持辛森8个百分点，而女性选民支持民主党人图雷克15个百分点。2022年，共和党人查克·格拉斯利以24个百分点领先男性，3个百分点领先女性。
2022年，30岁以下的爱荷华州参议院选民是唯一支持民主党人迈克尔·弗兰肯（Michael Franken）超过格拉斯利9个百分点的年龄组。根据美国广播公司新闻网的选民民意调查，今年，18至29岁的选民以大约2比1的比例支持图雷克。30岁至44岁的选民也以大约13个百分点的优势支持图雷克，45岁至64岁的选民以8个百分点的优势支持辛森，65岁及以上的选民在候选人之间大致平分秋色。
俄亥俄州
民主党人谢罗德·布朗预计将战胜共和党人约翰·胡斯德赢得俄亥俄州参议院席位，并夺回他在2024年失去的席位。以下是他如何建立一个胜利的联盟。
根据美国广播公司的选民民意调查，俄亥俄州选民对经济状况持负面态度，对特朗普的关税感到失望，并对高成本感到担忧，大多数人将高成本归咎于特朗普。布朗在对经济更不抱幻想的人中大获全胜。他还能够利用大约60%的人说胡斯德太支持特朗普，相对于他在大多数关键人口群体中的2024年利润率，他取得了进展。
根据美国广播公司的选民民意调查，布朗在俄亥俄州赢得了女性选民14个百分点。2024年，女性在布朗和共和党人伯尼·莫雷诺之间平分秋色。
根据美国广播公司的选民民意调查，布朗以超过40个百分点的优势赢得了30岁以下的选民，这与2024年30岁以下的选民支持莫雷诺4个百分点的情况截然相反。他还以大约30个百分点的优势赢得了30至44岁的选民，相比之下，他在2024年的优势为2个百分点。两位候选人瓜分了45岁至64岁年龄组的选票，两年前布朗以10个百分点的优势输掉了这个年龄组的选票。然而，今年，与2024年相比，布朗在65岁及以上的选民中失去了阵地。
根据美国广播公司的选民民意调查，无党派人士支持布朗的比例比支持胡斯德的高25个百分点。根据爱迪生的说法，这比他在2024年（＋9）和2018年（＋12）在这一群体中的利润率有了相当大的增长。布朗也赢得了几乎所有的民主党人和大约十分之一的共和党人。
在过去的两个周期中，俄亥俄州白人选民支持共和党参议员候选人的比例都至少高出10个百分点。但今晚，根据美国广播公司的选民民意调查，白人选民几乎势均力敌，回到了2018年中期选举的边缘。
根据美国广播公司的选民民调，布朗在黑人选民中的优势也从2024年的71个点增加到今年的81个点。
根据ABC新闻的选民民意调查，俄亥俄州拥有大学学位的选民支持布朗约22个百分点。这比他在2024年和2018年与这一群体的14分差距有所改善。虽然他失去了一位数的没有大学学位的选民，但这比他在2024年失去这个群体的14个百分点有了很大改善。
堪萨斯州
民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿预计将成为1932年以来第一位从堪萨斯州当选为美国参议员的民主党人。以下是他如何击败现任共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔赢得席位的。
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，十分之四的堪萨斯州参议院选民表示，他们对当今国家的发展方式感到愤怒，他们以80个百分点的优势支持汉密尔顿而不是马歇尔。另外大约三分之一的人不满意，根据美国广播公司的选民调查，他们大致分裂了他们的投票。
根据美国广播公司新闻网的选民民意调查，近60%的堪萨斯州参议院选民不赞成特朗普，其中约一半人强烈反对，他们广泛支持汉密尔顿而不是马歇尔。
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，堪萨斯州约有40%的选民是共和党人，超过80%的人投票给马歇尔，但12%的人分裂出去投票给汉密尔顿，几乎所有的民主党人都支持汉密尔顿。根据选民民意调查，无党派人士以超过2比1的比例支持民主党。
根据ABC新闻的选民民意调查，女性支持汉密尔顿的比例为10个百分点，男性支持马歇尔的比例为2个百分点。在2022年的大选中，男性和女性都以两位数的优势支持共和党人杰里·摩兰，他以较大优势赢得了第三个美国参议院任期。2020年，当马歇尔击败民主党人芭芭拉·博林格竞选美国参议员时，男性以22个百分点的优势支持马歇尔，但堪萨斯州的女性大约平分秋色。
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，基本上所有在2024年投票给哈里斯的堪萨斯州选民都支持汉密尔顿。特朗普的选民没有团结在马歇尔周围，其中9%的人支持汉密尔顿。
得克萨斯州
民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）是一名教育家，也是德克萨斯州众议院议员，预计他将击败共和党人肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）。年轻选民将塔拉里科推向了胜利。大约80%的18-29岁选民（79%）在今年的竞选中支持塔拉里科，而在2024年，大约一半的18-29岁选民支持民主党人科林·奥尔雷德。
美国广播公司新闻频道（ABC News）的选民调查显示，在德克萨斯州的参议员竞选中，58%的女性选民支持塔拉里科，而男性选民的投票大致持平。在2024年的得克萨斯州参议员竞选中，男性选民以18个百分点的优势支持共和党人特德·克鲁兹，而女性选民在候选人之间大致平分秋色。
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，塔拉里科在2026年参议院胜利期间，在黑人和西班牙裔得克萨斯人中获得了优势。90%的黑人选民和大约三分之二的西班牙裔德州人支持塔拉里科，而不是帕克斯顿。这比Allred在2024年竞选参议员期间从这些团体获得的份额高出约10个百分点。
大约70%的德克萨斯州参议院选民（72%）对经济持负面评价，其中34%的人根据ABC新闻的选民民意调查认为经济不佳。在对经济评价负面的选民中，73%的人投票给了塔拉里科。
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，大约40%的德克萨斯州参议院选民说经济是国家面临的首要问题，而29%的人说民主状况。将民主视为最重要问题的选民以大约3比1的优势支持塔拉里科，而塔拉里科以两位数的优势赢得了关注经济的选民。
近十分之六的德克萨斯州参议院选民不赞成特朗普，其中51%的人强烈反对，这些选民支持塔拉里科。
根据美国广播公司新闻的选民民意调查，与两年前相比，大约两倍多的德克萨斯州参议院选民说他们的情况更糟（44%）而不是更好（20%）。在表示自己的财务状况恶化的选民中，77%的人投票给了塔拉里科。
How Democrats flipped the Senate blue： The ABC News Voter Poll tells the story
Democrats rode a wave of discontent -- both for the economy and President Donald Trump -- and gained control of the Senate once again， making gains in places that just two years ago would have been unthinkable．
From Georgia， South Carolina and Texas in the South to Ohio， Kansas and Iowa in the Midwest， insurgent Democrats not only won but did so with significant margins -- with notable shifts in key demographic groups and voting blocs．
Here＇s how we got here：
Georgia
Democrat Jon Ossoff is projected to win reelection to the U．S． Senate， according to ABC News Voter Polls． Ossoff， who narrowly won his Senate seat in a runoff election in 2021， earned more support from Georgia voters in this year’s race， winning the support of around 6 in 10 voters across the state．
Ossoff was able to improve his vote margins among white voters by about 10 percentage points compared to Democrat Raphael Warnock’s victory in 2022．
Younger voters helped propel Ossoff to victory in the 2026 Georgia Senate race， according to ABC News Voter Polls． Voters under 30 widened their support for a Democrat， from 21 points in 2022 to 72 points now． While 45- to 64-year-olds supported the Republican candidate by 8 percentage points in 2022， they supported Ossoff by 11 points this year， according to ABC News Voter Polls．
Ossoff was able to win solidly among independents， who make up 3 in 10 voters in the Georgia electorate， according to ABC News Voter Polls． Two-thirds of independents voted for Ossoff over his Republican challenger， Mike Collins．
Ossoff built support among white voters in the 2026 election compared to Warnock in 2022． Four in 10 white voters backed Ossoff in this year’s race， while 29% supported Warnock back in 2022．
About 3 in 10 Georgia Senate voters say they are angry about the way things are going in the country today according to ABC News Voter polls． Around 9 in 10 Georgia gubernatorial voters who said they were angry about the country’s state of affairs supported Ossoff．
According to ABC News Voter Polls， about three-quarters of Georgia Senate voters rate the economy negatively， including about a third who say the economy is poor． Roughly 9 in 10 voters who describe the nation’s economy as poor voted for Ossoff in the 2026 Senate election．
According to ABC News Voter Polls， about 6 in 10 Georgia Senate voters disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president， including about half of voters who strongly disapprove． Roughly 9 in 10 voters who disapprove of Trump backed Ossoff in this year’s race．
South Carolina
Democrat Annie Andrews is projected to have defeated Republican Sen． Darline Graham， who held the seat after her brother， longtime Sen． Lindsey Graham， died in June．
Black voters in South Carolina supported Andrews over Graham by an 85% to 12% margin and made up 18% of the electorate， according to ABC News Voter Polls， wider than the margin that Democrat Krystle Matthews had over Republican Tim Scott in 2022 when Black voters made up 22% of the electorate．
But white voters shifted heavily toward the Democrat this year． In 2022， white voters supported Scott by 54 percentage points． This time they supported Graham by only 14 points．
Women backed Andrews over Graham by 13 percentage points， according to ABC Voter Polls． In 2022， women backed Scott by 18 percentage points． While Graham won men this year， her margin was in the single digits -- compared to a 34-point margin in favor of Scott four years ago． Among white men， in particular， Graham’s margin was around 19 percentage points -- down from a 58-point margin for the Republican in 2022．
Roughly 4 in 10 South Carolina voters are 65 and older， and they backed Graham by 9 percentage points over Andrews， according to ABC Voter Polls． That margin is much narrower than the 32 point margin that Scott held among these older voters in 2022．
One in 10 voters who said they backed Trump in 2024 crossed over to vote for Andrews this year． Almost none of Kamala Harris＇ 2024 voters supported Graham， according to ABC News Voter Polls．
College graduates backed Andrews by a margin of 18 points， according to ABC News Voter Polls． That was a flip from 2020 when 57% of college graduates voted for Lindsey Graham． In 2022， Scott won college graduates by 23 percentage points．
Suburban voters in South Carolina broke toward Andrews by 7 percentage points according to ABC News Voter Polls． In 2022， suburban voters favored Scott by 24 percentage points． Urban voters backed Andrews by a 27 point margin， more than double the margin from 2022．
Iowa
Josh Turek is projected to win the Iowa Senate race， becoming the first Democrat to represent Iowa in the upper chamber since Tom Harkin was elected in 2008． His victory was propelled by strength among independents and by peeling off enough Trump 2024 voters．
Self-identified independents in Iowa preferred Turek by around 20 percentage points， according to ABC News Voter Polls． Party-switching among Democrats and Republicans was relatively muted， though Turek captured more Republicans （7%） than Democrats who voted for GOP candidate Ashley Hinson （1%）．
About 1 in 10 Iowa Senate voters who backed Trump in 2024 crossed over to Turek， while few Harris voters supported Hinson， according to ABC News Voter Polls．
Male voters in Iowa backed Hinson by 8 percentage points， while women supported Democrat Turek by 15 points， according to ABC News Voter Polls． In 2022， Republican Chuck Grassley carried men by 24 points and women by 3 points．
In 2022， Iowa Senate voters under 30 were the only age group to back Democrat Michael Franken over Grassley by 9 percentage points． This year， voters aged 18 to 29 supported Turek by around a 2-to-1 margin， according to ABC News Voter Polls． Voters aged 30 to 44 also preferred Turek by about 13 points， those aged 45 to 64 backed Hinson by 8 points and voters 65 and older were roughly evenly split between the candidates．
Ohio
Democrat Sherrod Brown is projected to win the Ohio Senate seat over Republican John Husted and retake the seat he lost in 2024． Here’s how he built a winning coalition．
Ohio voters were negative about the state of the economy， frustrated with Trump’s tariffs and concerned about high costs， which a majority blamed on Trump， according to ABC Voter Polls． And Brown won big among the more economically disenchanted． He was also able to capitalize on the roughly 6 in 10 who said Husted was too supportive of Trump， gaining ground relative to his 2024 margins among most key demographic groups．
Brown won female voters in Ohio by 14 percentage points over Husted， according to ABC Voter Polls． In 2024， women split about evenly between Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno．
Brown won voters under 30 by more than 40 percentage points， according to ABC Voter Polls -- a sharp reversal from 2024 when voters under 30 backed Moreno by 4 percentage points． He also won voters ages 30 to 44 by roughly 30 points， compared with his 2-point margin in 2024． The two candidates split the vote of those ages 45 to 64 -- a group Brown lost by 10 points two years ago． This year， though， Brown lost ground among voters ages 65 and older compared with 2024．
Independents backed Brown over Husted by 25 percentage points， according to ABC Voter Polls． This is a sizable increase over his margin with this group in 2024 （＋9） and 2018 （＋12）， according to Edison． Brown also won nearly all Democrats and around 1 in 10 Republicans．
White Ohio voters supported the Republican Senate candidate by at least 10 percentage points in each of the last two cycles． But tonight， white voters broke nearly evenly according to ABC Voter Polls -- returning to margins last seen in the 2018 midterms．
Brown’s margin among Black voters also increased from 71 points in 2024 to 81 points this year， according to ABC Voter Polls．
Ohio voters with a college degree backed Brown by about 22 percentage points， according to ABC News Voter Polls． This is an improvement over his 14-point margin with this group in both 2024 and 2018． While he lost voters without a college degree to Husted by single digits， this improved substantially over the 14 points by which he lost this group in 2024．
Kansas
Democrat Adam Hamilton is projected to become the first Democrat to be elected to the U．S． Senate from Kansas since 1932． Here’s how he beat incumbent Republican Sen． Roger Marshall to win the seat．
Four in 10 Kansas Senate voters say they are angry about the way things are going in the country today， according to ABC News Voter Polls， and they supported Hamilton over Marshall by an 80-point margin． Another roughly third are dissatisfied and they roughly split their vote according to ABC News Voter Polls．
Nearly 6 in 10 Kansas Senate voters disapprove of Trump， including about half who strongly disapprove and they widely supported Hamilton over Marshall， according to ABC News Voter Polls．
About 4 in 10 voters in Kansas are Republicans and over 8 in 10 of them voted for Marshall， according to ABC News Voter Polls -- but 12% of them split off to vote for Hamilton and nearly all Democrats supported Hamilton． Independents split for the Democrat by a more than 2-to-1 margin， according to Voter Polls．
Women supported Hamilton by a 10-percentage point margin and men supported Marshall by a 2-point margin， according to ABC News Voter Polls． In the 2022 election， both men and women supported Republican Jerry Moran by double-digit margins and he won his third term to the U．S． Senate by a wide margin． In 2020， when Marshall beat Democrat Barbara Bolinger for the U．S． Senate， men supported Marshall by 22 points， but Kansas women were about evenly split．
Essentially all of the Kansas voters who voted for Harris in 2024 supported Hamilton， according to ABC News Voter Polls． Trump voters were not as united around Marshall， with 9% of them peeling off for Hamilton．
Texas
Democrat James Talarico， an educator and member of the Texas House of Representatives， was projected to defeat Republican Ken Paxton． Talarico was propelled to victory by younger voters． Roughly 8 in 10 voters ages 18-29 （79%） supported Talarico in this year’s race， compared with about half of 18 to 29-year-olds who supported Democrat Collin Allred in 2024．
In the Texas Senate race， 58% of female voters supported Talarico， while men were roughly evenly split in their vote， according to ABC News Voter Polls． In the 2024 Texas Senate race， male voters favored Republican Ted Cruz by an 18 percentage point margin over Allred while women were about evenly split between candidates．
Talarico gained among Black and Hispanic Texans during his 2026 Senate victory， according to ABC News Voter Polls． Nine in 10 Black voters and about two-thirds of Hispanic Texans supported Talarico over Paxton． This is roughly 10 percentage points higher than the shares Allred received from these groups during his 2024 candidacy for Senate．
Roughly 7 in 10 Texas Senate voters （72%） rated the economy negatively， including 34% who rated the economy as poor according to ABC News Voter Polls． Among voters who evaluated the economy negatively， 73% voted for Talarico．
About 4 in 10 Texas Senate voters （40%） said the economy was the top issue facing the country， while 29% said the state of democracy， according to ABC News Voter Polls． Voters who viewed democracy as the most important issue favored Talarico by a roughly 3-to-1 margin， while Talarico won economy-focused voters by a double-digit margin．
Nearly 6 in 10 Texas Senate voters disapproved of Trump， including 51% who disapproved strongly， and those voters supported Talarico by wide margins．
About twice as many Texas Senate voters said they were worse off （44%） than better off （20%） compared with two years ago， according to ABC News Voter Polls． Among voters who said their financial situation has worsened， 77% voted for Talarico．
