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在选举日,国会的控制权是可以争夺的。民主党人和共和党人的数学是什么?

2026-11-04 09:59 -ABC  -  浏览量:561379

  随着美国人在选举日排队投票,国会两院的多数席位都在发挥作用,因为选民们正在权衡对华盛顿政府统一控制的中期检查——唐纳德·特朗普总统过去两年对白宫和共和党在众议院和参议院的多数席位的控制。

  共和党人在众议院和参议院都占微弱多数,并且在离选举日只有几天的时候团结起来保住他们。

  另一方面,民主党人正试图进入一些传统的红色区域,希望获得关键席位。

  房子

  在众议院,所有435个席位将于11月3日在第120届国会进行为期两年的投票。路易斯安那州的议长迈克·约翰逊目前拥有历史上微弱的多数:218名共和党人,以及一名独立的加利福尼亚州众议员凯文·凯利,他申请连任,没有党派关系,但继续普遍支持议长。民主党拥有214个席位。

  在4月份有道德问题的议员辞职后,众议院还有两个空缺——前德克萨斯州共和党众议员托尼·冈萨雷斯(Tony Gonzales)和前佛罗里达州民主党众议员希拉·切菲勒斯·麦考密克(Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick),他们试图复出,但在8月的初选中被选民拒绝。

  这是一种冗长的方式来解释在选举之夜,约翰逊有效地以220-215的优势领先于少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯。

  虽然约翰逊和共和党人捍卫了他们在过去两年积累的立法记录,包括《工薪家庭减税法案》(Working Families减税法案),即特朗普的“一个美丽的大法案”(One,Big Beautiful Bill),但共和党的闭幕词也严厉警告选民不要接受“马姆达尼疯狂”(Mamdani madness),这是指纽约市的民主社会主义市长和一些民主社会主义候选人今年在民主党初选中的成功。

  “我们正在降低生活成本。我们正在为更多的人提供更多的工作和机会。事实证明了这一点,记录也证明了这一点,”约翰逊在最近的一次采访中告诉哥伦比亚广播公司。"成功在继续。"

  在过道的另一边,布鲁克林民主党人杰弗里斯(Jeffries)正在努力成为美国历史上第一位黑人议长,他的竞选活动主要以可负担性和反腐败为基础,直接针对特朗普。

  “美国人民受够了,”杰弗里斯本月告诉记者,并补充说他相信民主党人“有望”赢得众议院多数席位。

  为了让杰弗里斯有机会担任议长,民主党必须获得三个席位,使他们的人数至少达到218个——简单多数。

  参议院

  在参议院,上院的100个席位中有35个是六年任期的,包括13个民主党席位和22个共和党席位,分布在政治版图上。

  参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩(John Thune)和共和党人目前以53比45的优势领先于参议院民主党人,参议院民主党人也有两名独立议员与他们进行党团会议,将目前的少数党席位推至47个席位。

  鉴于副总统万斯(JD Vance)在参议院拥有打破平局的宪法权力,图恩可以承受共和党净损失三个席位,但仍保留多数席位。

  然而,对于参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默和民主党人来说,要想逆转多数党,他们需要净增加四个席位。

  据统计,截至周一晚上,已有超过5700万美国人提前投票佛罗里达大学选举实验室.

  Control of Congress is up for grabs on Election Day. What's the math for Democrats and Republicans?

  As Americans line up to cast their votes on Election Day, the majorities of both houses of Congress are in play as voters weigh a midterm check on unified control of government in Washington -- President Donald Trump's hold on the White House and Republican majorities in the House and Senate the past two years.

  Republicans hold slim majorities in both the House and Senate and are rallying to preserve them with just days until Election Day.

  Democrats on the other hand are trying to make inroads into some traditionally red areas in hopes of picking up crucial seats.

  House

  In the House, all 435 seats are on the ballot on Nov. 3 for two-year terms in the 120th Congress. Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana currently holds a historically narrow majority: 218 Republicans alongside a single independent, Rep. Kevin Kiley of California, who filed for reelection without party affiliation but continues to generally support the speaker on the floor. Democrats hold 214 seats.

  There are also two vacancies in the House following the April resignations of lawmakers with ethics issues -- former Texas Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales and former Florida Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who attempted a comeback but was rejected by voters in an August primary.

  That’s a lengthy way to explain that on Election Night, Johnson effectively begins with a 220-215 edge over Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

  While Johnson and Republicans defend their legislative record amassed over the past two years -- including the Working Families Tax Cuts Act, formerly known as Trump's "One, Big Beautiful Bill" -- the closing message from the GOP has also starkly warned voters not to embrace “Mamdani madness," a reference to New York City's democratic socialist mayor and the success of some democratic socialist candidates in Democratic primaries this year.

  "We are bringing down the cost of living. We are providing more jobs and opportunity for more people. The facts show it and the records show it," Johnson told CBS during a recent interview. "The success goes on and on."

  Across the aisle, Jeffries, a Brooklyn Democrat, is striving to become the first Black speaker in U.S. history, campaigning largely on a plank of affordability and anticorruption that directly takes aim at Trump.

  "The American people are fed up," Jeffries told reporters this month, adding his belief that Democrats are "on track" to win the House majority.

  For Jeffries to get a chance to take the speaker’s gavel, Democrats must attain a net gain of three seats, pushing their numbers to at least 218 -- a simple majority.

  Senate

  In the Senate, 35 of the upper chamber’s 100 seats are on the ballot for six-year terms, including 13 Democratic and 22 Republican seats sprinkled across the political landscape.

  Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Republicans currently hold a 53-45 edge over Senate Democrats, who also have two independents that caucus with them, pushing the current minority to 47 seats.

  Thune could afford to have a net loss of three GOP seats and still retain the majority, given Vice President JD Vance’s constitutional power to break tie votes in the Senate.

  For Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Democrats to flip the majority, however, they’ll need to amass a net gain of four seats.

  More than 57 million Americans had voted early as of Monday night, according to theUniversity of Florida's Election Lab.

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