安迪·贝希尔在2019年选举周期中竞争最激烈的一场竞选中当选州长后,民主党人周二晚上在肯塔基州宣布获胜。但是庆祝活动可能为时过早,因为贝希尔的权力可能会受到该州共和党立法机构的严重限制。
共和党战略家斯科特·詹宁斯告诉记者:“立法机关如果愿意,基本上可以让肯塔基州的任何州长变得无关紧要。”新闻周刊。詹宁斯曾参加过四次总统竞选,并担任参议院多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔的超级政治行动委员会的高级顾问。
贝希尔在州长竞选中险胜共和党现任总统马特·贝文。据报道,在周二晚上统计的140多万张选票中,贝希尔以5333票的优势领先美联社。这场竞选对唐纳德·特朗普总统是一个巨大的打击,就在选举前一天,他为贝文举行了集会。
但是即使贝希尔获胜,共和党人仍然控制着州立法机关的两院,并且能够轻松通过法案,而不管民主党同事的反对。当该法案提交贝希尔时,他可以选择否决,但他的否决并不是永久的。
在肯塔基州,推翻州长否决只需要简单多数。由于共和党在肯塔基州的众议院和参议院拥有绝对多数,他们将有能力取消贝希尔的封锁。
詹宁斯补充道:“他是法兰克福最后一个真正的民主党人。”。“共和党完全掌控政策,如果[·贝希尔想要产生有意义的影响,他就必须与他们接触,与他们合作,在他们的地盘上玩一会儿。”
这位即将上任的州长在周二晚上的胜利演说中表示,他愿意跨过走廊,携手合作。他说肯塔基州的选民发出了一个“信息,即我们的选举不必是左右对比,他们仍然是对与错。”
贝希尔可以选择推进他的议程中不太可能获得共和党人支持的更进步的方面,比如堕胎权和赌博合法化,通过行政行动。民主党人已经发誓要使用行政权来恢复被判重罪的居民的投票权。
即使在这一点上,詹宁斯也很怀疑。“有一些行政行动,这是可能的。但是肯塔基州发生的绝大多数事情都是由立法机关来做的,不管州长是否喜欢。”新闻周刊。
尽管如此,州民主党人仍期待贝希尔掌权。路易斯维尔民主党主席拉塞尔·劳埃德告诉记者新闻周刊看到贝希尔在扩大医疗补助和大麻合法化等进步问题上发挥领导作用,他感到“兴奋”。
“这并不是说他可以自己通过一切。但如果共和党人继续违背选民的最佳利益行事,他可以帮助我们在下次选举中解决这些竞选问题。他会让他们很难再次竞选,”劳埃德说。
2019年11月5日,在肯塔基州路易斯维尔的C2活动场地,投票结果显示民主党人以微弱优势领先共和党人马特·贝文,显然当选州长安迪·贝希尔与支持者一起庆祝。贝文得到了唐纳德·特朗普总统的大力支持,但在结果显示贝希尔领先49.2%至48.8%后,他并未让步,相差不到6000票,100%的选区都有报道。
过去几年来,试图限制新任州长的权力,尤其是当行政部门与州立法多数党属于不同的政党时,已经成为美国政坛的一个流行趋势。
2018年中期选举后,共和党议员在密歇根匆忙通过立法来限制新当选的民主党州长格雷琴·惠特默的影响力。同样的事情发生在威斯康星州前州长斯科特·沃克在离任前签署了一系列限制新任民主党州长和司法部长权力的法案。
2016年,北卡罗来纳州即将卸任的共和党州长帕特·麦克罗伊签署了一项法律,剥夺了他继任者的行政权力。此举立即遭到强烈反对,甚至引发抗议在州议会大厦。
截至记者发稿时,肯塔基州还没有出台这样的法律,但是立法者距离贝希尔就职还有几个月的时间。
虽然贝希尔被宣布为肯塔基州州长选举的获胜者,但贝文拒绝让步。现任共和党人声称投票过程中有“违规报道”。周三,贝文呼吁重新竞选州长。
DEMOCRAT ANDY BESHEAR MAY BE KENTUCKY'S NEW GOVERNOR, BUT STATE REPUBLICANS ARE 'FULLY IN CHARGE'
Democrats claimed victory in Kentucky on Tuesday night after Andy Beshear was elected governor in one of the most highly-contested races of the 2019 election cycle. But celebrations may be premature, as Beshear's power is likely to be severely limited by the state's Republican legislature.
"The legislature, if it so chooses, can basically make any governor irrelevant in Kentucky," Scott Jennings, a GOP strategist, told Newsweek. Jennings has worked on four presidential campaigns and as a senior adviser for a super PAC for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Beshear narrowly defeated Republican incumbent Matt Bevin in the gubernatorial race. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Beshear had a lead of 5,333 votes out of more than 1.4 million counted Tuesday night, according to The Associated Press. The race was a huge blow to President Donald Trump, who rallied for Bevin just a day before the election.
But even with Beshear's victory, Republicans still control both chambers of the state legislature and will be able to easily pass bills regardless of opposition from their Democratic colleagues. When that legislation gets to Beshear's desk, he can choose to veto it, but his veto isn't exactly permanent.
In Kentucky, a simple majority is all that's needed to override a gubernatorial veto. Since Republicans have a supermajority in Kentucky's state House and Senate, they will have the ability to cancel Beshear's blockage.
"He is truthfully the last Democrat standing in Frankfort," Jennings added. "Republicans are fully in charge of policy and if [Beshear] wants to have a meaningful impact he's going to have to do outreach to them, work with them and play a little bit on their turf."
The incoming governor signaled in his victory speech on Tuesday night that he was willing to reach across the aisle and work together. He said that voters in Kentucky sent a "message that says our elections don't have to be about right versus left, they are still about right versus wrong."
Beshear will have the option to move forward with the more progressive aspects of his agenda that are unlikely to gain any support from Republicans, like abortion rights and legalizing gambling, through executive action. The Democrat has already vowed to use executive power to restore voting rights to residents with felony convictions.
Even on that point, Jennings was dubious. "There is some executive action, it's possible. But the vast majority of things that happen in Kentucky are done by the legislature whether the governor likes it or not," he told Newsweek.
Still, state Democrats are looking forward to having Beshear in charge. Russell Lloyd, the Louisville Democratic Party chairman, told Newsweek that he was "excited" to see Beshear lead on progressive issues like expanding Medicaid and legalizing marijuana.
"It's not that he can pass everything himself. But he can help us make those campaign issues in the next election in the event that Republicans continue to act outside of the best interests of their constituents. He can make it very difficult for them to run a re-election," Lloyd said.
Apparent Governor-elect Andy Beshear celebrates with supporters after voting results showed the Democrat holding a slim lead over Republican Gov. Matt Bevin at C2 Event Venue on November 5, 2019, in Louisville, Kentucky. Bevin, who enjoyed strong support from President Donald Trump, did not concede after results showed Beshear leading 49.2 percent to 48.8 percent, a difference of fewer than 6,000 votes, with 100 percent of precincts reporting.
Attempts to limit an incoming governor's power, especially when the executive is of a different political party than the state's legislative majority, has become a popular trend in American politics over the past few years.
After the 2018 midterm election, Republican lawmakers in Michigan rushed to pass legislation that would limit the influence of newly-elected Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The same happened in Wisconsin, where former Governor Scott Walker signed a flurry of bills just before leaving office that restricted the power of the incoming Democratic governor and attorney general.
In 2016, Pat McCrory, North Carolina's outgoing Republican governor, signed a law stripping executive powers from his successor. The move was immediately met with backlash and even prompted protests at the state capitol.
No such laws have been introduced in Kentucky as of press time, but lawmakers still have a few months before Beshear takes office.
While Beshear has been declared the winner of Kentucky's gubernatorial election, Bevin has refused to concede. The Republican incumbent has claimed that there were "reports of irregularities" in the voting process. On Wednesday Bevin called for a recanvass in the race for governor.