经济学家指向周一发布的美国商业经济协会调查显示,唐纳德·特朗普总统的全球贸易争端是导致经济增长放缓的一个因素。
35%的受访者表示特朗普的保护主义措施伤害了他们的公司,而7%的受访者表示这些政策改善了业务。32%的受访者表示,关税没有影响他们的业务。三分之二的商品生产商表示,关税对商业产生了负面影响。
受访者报告说销售下降,材料成本增加NABE新闻稿说。该调查描绘了未来12个月美国经济增长的疲软。尽管出现了令人担忧的迹象,接受调查的经济学家表示,他们仍预计明年经济会增长。
“美国经济似乎正在放缓,受访者预计未来12个月增长仍将放缓,”NABE康斯坦斯·亨特总统在新闻稿中说。“本报告中的许多调查指标处于几年来的最低水平。然而,值得注意的是,所有受访者仍预计当前的经济扩张将在未来12个月内继续。”
在这些被调查者中,五分之一的经济学家说他们在过去三个月雇佣了更多的工人,美联社报道了这个数字说表现为七年来的最低点。调查还发现,与前四年相比,2019年第三季度受访公司的工资和薪金增长“不太普遍”。"
尽管特朗普经常吹嘘他的经济记录,但NABE结果使扩张预期大大低于总统所寻求的。特朗普政府尚未实现第三个年头的全年目标百分比增长目标,以及NABE调查预计未来的增长不会接近这样的水平。相反,超过三分之二的受访经济学家表示,他们预计明年的实际国内生产总值增长率在1.1%至2%之间。五分之一的受访者预测经济增长将超过2%,比7月份调查中预测经济增长的近一半大幅下降。
特朗普本月早些时候宣布,美国和中国将同意一项“第一阶段”贸易协议,其中包括北京从美国购买数千万美元的农产品
然而,当特朗普寻求支持与中国的贸易战时,他加剧了与其他国家的紧张关系。在世界贸易组织表示,美国可能对欧盟给予空客的非法补贴征收75亿美元关税后,华盛顿对一系列欧洲商品征收关税。
10月28日,纽约证券交易所(NYSE)开盘后,交易员们在工作。
BUSINESS ECONOMISTS BLAME TRADE TENSIONS FOR EXPECTED DECREASE IN ECONOMIC GROWTH AS HIRING SLOWS
Economists pointed to President Donald Trump's global trade disputes as a factor motivating decreased economic growth in the National Association for Business Economics survey released on Monday.
Thirty-five percent of respondents said Trump's protectionist measures had hurt their companies, while seven percent said the policies had improved business. Thirty-two percent of respondents said that tariffs had not impacted their businesses. Two-thirds of goods-producers said the tariffs had negatively affected business.
The respondents reported falling sales and increased costs for materials, a NABE press release said. The survey depicted weakening U.S. economic growth over the next 12 months. Despite the concerning signs, the economists surveyed said they still expected economic growth in the next year.
"The U.S. economy appears to be slowing, and respondents expect still slower growth over the next 12 months," NABE President Constance Hunter said in the press release. "Many of the survey indicators in this report are at their lowest levels in several years. It is important to note, however, that all respondents still expect the current economic expansion to continue over the next 12 months."
Of those polled, one-fifth of economists said that they had hired more workers in the last three months, a figure the Associated Press said represented at seven-year low. The survey also found that wage and salary growth "was much less widespread at respondents' firms in the third quarter of 2019 than in the previous four years."
Though Trump has regularly touted his economic record, the NABEresults put expansion expectations significantly below what the president has sought. The Trump administration has yet to achieve a full year of its 3 percent growth target, and respondents to the NABE survey did not expect future growth to approach such levels. Rather, over two-thirds of economists surveyed said that they expected real GDP growth between 1.1 and 2 percent over the next year. One-fifth predicted economic growth beyond 2 percent--a sizable decrease from the nearly half who predicted such growth in the July survey.
Trump announced earlier this month that the U.S. and China would be agreeing to a "phase one" trade deal, which would involve Beijing buying tens of millions of dollars of agricultural products from the U.S.
However, as Trump seeks to shore up the trade war with China, he has escalated tensions with other countries. After the World Trade Organization said that the U.S. could levy $7.5 billion in tariffs against the European Union for illegal subsidies the bloc gave to Airbus, Washington imposed tariffs on a range of European goods.
Traders work after the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 28 in New York City.