科学家表示，人类行为导致的气候变化恶化使2025年成为有记录以来最热的三年之一。
这也是三年平均气温首次突破20世纪80年代设定的阈值2015年巴黎协定将变暖限制在不超过1.5度自前工业时代以来的摄氏温度(华氏2.7度)。专家表示，将地球保持在这个限度之下拯救生命，防止灾难性的环境破坏全球各地。
世界天气归因研究人员的分析于周二在欧洲发布，此前一年世界各地的人们受到猛烈抨击全球变暖带来的极端危险。
尽管拉尼娜现象存在，气温仍然很高。拉尼娜现象是太平洋海水偶尔自然冷却，影响全球天气。研究人员引用了化石燃料——石油、天然气和煤炭——的持续燃烧，这些燃料向大气中排放温室气体。
“如果我们不非常、非常、迅速、非常快地停止燃烧化石燃料，将很难保持变暖的目标，”世界天气归因的联合创始人、伦敦帝国理工学院气候科学家弗里德里克·奥托告诉美联社。"科学越来越清晰。"
极端天气事件每年造成数千人死亡和数十亿美元的损失。
WWA科学家确定了2025年最严重的157起极端天气事件，这意味着它们符合导致100多人死亡、影响超过一半地区人口或宣布紧急状态等标准。他们仔细分析了其中的22个。
这包括危险的热浪，WWA称这是2025年世界上最致命的极端天气事件。研究人员表示，由于气候变化，他们在2025年研究的一些热浪的可能性是十年前的10倍。
“我们今年观察到的热浪在我们今天的气候中是非常常见的事件，但如果没有人类引起的气候变化，它们几乎不可能发生，”奥托说。“这有很大的不同。”
与此同时，长期干旱导致了烧焦了希腊和土耳其的野火.墨西哥的暴雨和洪水导致数十人死亡，更多人失踪。超级台风凤凰猛烈抨击菲律宾，迫使一百多万人撤离。季风降雨洪水和山体滑坡袭击了印度。
WWA表示，日益频繁和严重的极端天气威胁着全球数百万人在足够的预警、时间和资源下应对和适应这些事件的能力，科学家称之为“适应的极限”报告以飓风梅丽莎为例:风暴加剧得如此之快这使得预测和计划变得更加困难痛击牙买加、古巴和海地严重到使小岛屿国家无法应对和处理其巨大的损失和破坏。
今年11月在巴西举行的联合国气候谈判没有达成任何明确的计划远离化石燃料的过渡虽然承诺了更多的资金来帮助各国适应气候变化，但他们需要更多的时间来做这件事。
官员、科学家和分析师已经承认地球变暖会超调1.5度摄氏度(2.7华氏度)，尽管有人说扭转这一趋势仍然是可能的。
然而，不同的国家取得了不同程度的进步。
中国是快速部署可再生能源包括太阳能和风能——但它也在继续投资煤炭。尽管越来越频繁的极端天气刺激了整个欧洲采取气候行动的呼声，一些国家说这限制了经济增长。与此同时，在美国特朗普政府已经把这个国家带走了从清洁能源政策转向支持煤炭、石油和天然气的措施。
奥托说:“今年的地缘政治天气非常阴云密布，许多政策制定者显然是为了化石燃料行业的利益而不是他们国家的人口制定政策。”"我们有大量的错误信息和虚假信息需要人们去处理."
哥伦比亚大学气候学院的高级研究员Andrew Kruczkiewicz没有参与WWA的工作，他说，一些地方正在经历他们不习惯的灾难，极端事件正在更快地加剧，并且变得更加复杂。他说，这需要早期预警和新的应对和恢复方法。
“在全球范围内，正在取得进展，”他补充说，“但我们必须做得更多。”
2025 was one of three hottest years on record, scientists say
Climate change worsened by human behavior made 2025 one of the three hottest years on record, scientists said.
It was also the first time that the three-year temperature average broke through the threshold set in the2015 Paris Agreementof limiting warming to no more than1.5 degreesCelsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) since preindustrial times. Experts say that keeping the Earth below that limit couldsave lives and prevent catastrophic environmental destructionaround the globe.
The analysis from World Weather Attribution researchers, released Tuesday in Europe, came after a year whenpeople around the world were slammedby the dangerous extremes brought on by a warming planet.
Temperatures remained high despite the presence of a La Nina, the occasional natural cooling of Pacific Ocean waters that influences weather worldwide. Researchers cited the continued burning of fossil fuels — oil, gas and coal — that send planet-warming greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
“If we don’t stop burning fossil fuels very, very, quickly, very soon, it will be very hard to keep that goal” of warming, Friederike Otto, co-founder of World Weather Attribution and an Imperial College London climate scientist, told The Associated Press. “The science is increasingly clear.”
Extreme weather events kill thousands of people and cost billions of dollars in damage annually.
WWA scientists identified 157 extreme weather events as most severe in 2025, meaning they met criteria such as causing more than 100 deaths, affecting more than half an area’s population or having a state of emergency declared. Of those, they closely analyzed 22.
That includeddangerous heat waves, which the WWA said were the world's deadliest extreme weather events in 2025. The researchers said some of the heat waves they studied in 2025 were 10 times more likely than they would have been a decade ago due to climate change.
“The heat waves we have observed this year are quite common events in our climate today, but they would have been almost impossible to occur without human-induced climate change,” Otto said. “It makes a huge difference.”
Meanwhile, prolonged drought contributed towildfires that scorched Greece and Turkey.Torrential rains and flooding in Mexicokilled dozens of people and left many more missing. Super Typhoon Fung-wongslammed the Philippines, forcing more than a million people to evacuate.Monsoon rainsbattered India with floods and landslides.
The WWA said the increasingly frequent and severe extremes threatened the ability of millions of people across the globe to respond and adapt to those events with enough warning, time and resources, what the scientists call “limits of adaptation.” The report pointed to Hurricane Melissa as an example: The stormintensified so quicklythat it made forecasting and planning more difficult, andpummeled Jamaica, Cuba and Haitiso severely that it left the small island nations unable to respond to and handle its extreme losses and damage.
This year's United Nations climate talks in Brazil in November ended without any explicit plan totransition away from fossil fuels, and though more money was pledged to help countries adapt to climate change, they will take more time to do it.
Officials, scientists, and analystshave conceded thatEarth’s warmingwill overshoot1.5 degreesCelsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), though some say reversing that trend remains possible.
Yet different nations are seeing varying levels of progress.
China israpidly deploying renewable energiesincluding solar and wind power — but it is also continuing to invest in coal. Though increasingly frequent extreme weather has spurred calls for climate action across Europe,some nations say that limits economic growth. Meanwhile, in the U.S., theTrump administration has steered the nation awayfrom clean-energy policy in favor of measures that support coal, oil and gas.
“The geopolitical weather is very cloudy this year with a lot of policymakers very clearly making policies for the interest of the fossil fuel industry rather than for the populations of their countries," Otto said. “And we have a huge amount of mis- and disinformation that people have to deal with.”
Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a senior researcher at the Columbia University Climate School who wasn't involved in the WWA work, said places are seeing disasters they aren't used to, extreme events are intensifying faster and they are becoming more complex. That requires earlier warnings and new approaches to response and recovery, he said.
“On a global scale, progress is being made," he added, "but we must do more.”
