唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税打败当总统宣布时，市场和释放衰退预测全面征税100多天前。现在，随着特朗普继续宣扬这一政策，经济正在蓬勃发展，华尔街对每一项新关税都做出了回应耸肩.
最近一轮关税威胁增加了新的不确定性，但长达一个月的跟踪记录为经济学家提供了一个评估关税迄今为止产生了什么的机会。
接受美国广播公司新闻采访的分析师认为，关税带来了高于预期的税收收入，并有助于获得一些致力于在美国投资新生产的公司的承诺。
但是，一些分析师警告说，这些公司的承诺具有很长的时间跨度，随着关税政策的波动，公司有反悔的余地。与此同时，他们表示，关税已开始推高一些价格，有可能引发一轮通胀，可能伤害消费者并扰乱经济。
特朗普已经已回滚最近几个月，他的许多最严厉的关税，包括天价征税中国美国最大的进口来源。然而，最近几天，特朗普宣布的计划对几十个国家征收高达50%的关税，包括对日本和韩国等美国主要贸易伙伴征收25%的关税。
总体而言，消费者目前面临的实际关税税率为20.6%，是1910年以来的最高水平耶鲁预算实验室这周发现的。
根据白宫的说法，特朗普政府将关税作为更广泛的“美国第一经济政策”的一部分，这些政策“引发了对美国制造业、技术和基础设施的数万亿美元新投资”网站.
理论上，对进口产品征税激励企业在美国制造产品，以此作为规避税收负担的一种手段。
数十家公司承诺在美国进行新的投资，包括科技巨头苹果和英伟达，制药公司默克和强生白宫表示，强生以及汽车制造商现代和Stellantis。
“整个想法是鼓励制造业回流，改变贸易平衡。这可能会产生一些积极的影响，”杜克大学制造业和供应链名誉教授莫里斯·科恩告诉美国广播公司新闻。
一些分析师表示，在特朗普断断续续的关税政策中，公司面临着做出昂贵的长期投资决定的选择，自特朗普上任以来，白宫已经多次改变这些政策。
五月的两项法庭裁决刺随着联邦上诉法院法官决定主要政策是否通过法律审查，一些关税进入了法律边缘，增加了另一层不确定性。
“做出承诺的公司试图在政治上与特朗普打交道，”巴克内尔大学经济学教授马蒂亚斯·韦尔嫩戈告诉美国广播公司新闻，并补充说，他预计许多公司最终将达不到他们的承诺。
“如果他宣布一项关税政策并坚持下去，那就好了。但事实并非如此，”Vernengo补充道。
特朗普政府指责了对其关税方法的批评，称这种灵活性让白宫官员在与征税目标国家的贸易谈判中发挥了杠杆作用。
与此同时，关税带来了大量税收收入，因为进口商在将目标商品带入美国时需要向联邦政府支付。美国财政部数据显示，美国上个月的关税相关税收收入约为270亿美元，今年迄今为止的总支付额超过1000亿美元。
穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)表示，到2025年底，关税收入可能超过3000亿美元，相当于美国国内生产总值的近1%。一些分析师指出，这笔收入可能有助于缓解政府赤字。
“关税收入比我年初预期的要多，”赞迪说，并指出关税水平仍然高于他的预期。
不过，赞迪对税款支付的持久性表示怀疑。
赞迪说:“立法者未来指望这笔收入是不明智的，因为不清楚关税是否会继续存在，因为它们可能会被发现是非法的，或者未来的总统可能会根据行政命令决定降低或取消它们。”
与此同时，美国经济迄今为止没有像分析师们担心的那样，因关税导致价格大幅上涨。不过，分析师们表示，关税对上月通胀的上升起到了一定的作用先前告知美国广播公司新闻援引主要由进口构成的产品类别的价格上涨。
消费者价格玫瑰6月份同比增长2.7%，符合经济学家的预期，但较一个月前有所上升。尽管如此，通货膨胀率仍低于特朗普上任的1月份创下的3%。
玩具——一种几乎完全依赖进口的产品——的价格在6月份比两个月前上涨了6倍。服装、家具和床上用品等常见的进口产品也在价格上涨的商品之列。
巴克内尔大学(Bucknell University)的Vernengo表示，关税可能会在一段时间内推高通胀，给美联储带来保持高利率的压力，进而带来经济放缓的风险。
“随着特朗普征收关税，价格将会上涨。然后，随着关税的确立和价格的自我调整，它们将停止增长，”Vernengo说。“在我看来，美联储的反应比关税更重要。”
What have Trump's tariffs achieved so far? Experts weigh in
President Donald Trump’s tariffstankedmarkets and unleashed recession forecasts when the president unveiledsweeping levieslittle more than 100 days ago. Now, as Trump continues to tout the policy, the economy is humming along and Wall Street is responding to each new tariff with ashrug.
A recent round of tariff threats has added a new layer of uncertainty, but the monthslong track record affords economists an opportunity to evaluate what the tariffs have yielded so far.
Analysts who spoke to ABC News credited the tariffs for delivering higher-than-expected tax revenue and helping to elicit some commitments from companies bent on investing in new production in the U.S.
But, some analysts cautioned, those company commitments carry a long time horizon and wiggle room for firms to renege upon the spending as the tariff policy fluctuates. Meanwhile, tariffs have started to push up some prices, risking a bout of inflation that could hurt consumers and disrupt the economy, they said.
Trump hasrolled backmany of his steepest tariffs over recent months, including a sky-high levy onChina, the top source of U.S. imports. In recent days, however, Trumpannouncedplans to slap tariffs as high as 50% on dozens of countries, including 25% tariffs on top U.S. trade partners such as Japan and South Korea.
In all, consumers currently face an effective tariff rate of 20.6%, the highest since 1910, theYale Budget Labfound this week.
The Trump administration touts tariffs as part of a wider set of “America First economic policies,” which have “sparked trillions of dollars in new investment in U.S. manufacturing, technology, and infrastructure,” according to the White House'swebsite.
In theory, levies on imports incentivize firms to build manufacturing in the U.S. as a means of averting the tax burden.
Scores of companies have pledged new investment in the U.S., including tech giants Apple and Nvidia, pharmaceutical companies Merck and Johnson& Johnson as well as automakers Hyundai and Stellantis, the White House says.
“The whole idea is to encourage reshoring of manufacturing and change the balance of trade. That could all have some positive impact,” Morris Cohen, a professor emeritus of manufacturing and supply chains at Duke University, told ABC News.
Companies face the choice of making costly, long-term investment decisions amid Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff policies, which the White House has altered numerous times since Trump took office, some analysts said.
A pair of court rulings in Maythrustsome of the tariffs into legal limbo, adding another layer of uncertainty as federal appeals court judges determine whether a major swath of the policies pass legal muster.
“The companies making promises are trying to politically deal with Trump,” Matias Vernengo, a professor of economics at Bucknell University, told ABC News, adding that he expects many firms will ultimately fall short of their commitments.
“It would be nice if he announced a tariff policy and stuck to it. But that’s not what’s happening,” Vernengo added.
The Trump administration has rebuked criticism of its tariff approach, saying the flexibility affords White House officials leverage in trade negotiations with countries targeted by the levies.
The tariffs, meanwhile, have yielded a burst of tax revenue as importers to pay the federal government when they bring targeted goods into the U.S. The U.S. recorded about $27 billion in tariff-related tax revenue last month, bringing total payments so far this year to more than $100 billion, Treasury Department data showed.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said tariff revenue could exceed $300 billion by the end of 2025, which would amount to nearly 1% of U.S. gross domestic product. That revenue could help ease government deficits, some analysts noted.
“The tariff revenues are more substantial than I anticipated at the start of the year,” Zandi said, noting that tariff levels had remained higher than he expected.
Still, Zandi voiced skepticism about the staying power of the tax payments.
“It would not be prudent for lawmakers to count on this revenue in the future, as it is unclear whether the tariffs will remain in place given they may be found to be illegal or future Presidents may decide to lower or eliminate them under executive order,” Zandi said.
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy so far has defied analysts' fears of a large, tariff-induced price spike. Still, tariffs contributed modestly to the rise of inflation last month, analystspreviously toldABC News, citing the price hikes in product categories made up primarily of imports.
Consumer pricesrose2.7% in June compared to a year ago, matching economists' expectations but marking an uptick from a month earlier. Still, the inflation rate clocked in below the 3% recorded in January, the month Trump took office.
The price of toys -- a product dependent almost entirely on imports -- increased six times faster in June than it had just two months prior. Commonly imported products like clothes, furniture and bed linens were also among the goods that jumped in price.
Vernengo, of Bucknell University, said tariffs would likely push up inflation for a temporary period, putting pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated and in turn risk an economic slowdown.
“Prices will go up as Trump imposes tariffs. Then, as tariffs are established and prices adjust themselves, they will stop growing,” Vernengo said. “It’s the Fed’s reaction that will matter more in my view than the tariffs.”
