当众议院民主党人思考弹劾唐纳德·特朗普的政治时，他们正在权衡可能的结果。弹劾调查可能会在明年选举前削弱总统的权力，并将白宫交还给民主党，或者可能适得其反，就像共和党1998年驱逐比尔·克林顿的努力一样。但是还有第三个选择:弹劾可能会成功。作为众议院司法委员会的一名高级职员，他设计了这个两难的局面，“如果我们只剩下彭斯总统呢？”

直到本周，这种情况似乎还很牵强。目前，如果民主党控制的众议院通过对特朗普的弹劾条款，似乎没有足够的共和党参议员投票定罪特朗普。但总统一直未能平息“乌克兰门”丑闻，该丑闻是在一名美国情报告密者报道特朗普向乌克兰总统沃洛迪米尔·泽兰斯基施压，要他提供乔·拜登和他儿子亨特的丑闻后爆发的。白宫显然认为电话录音是无罪的，但公布录音只会加大压力。福克斯新闻最近的一项民意调查显示，大多数人——51%——现在希望弹劾特朗普并将其免职。这是第一次大规模投票，显示大多数人支持特朗普下台。

但这是一个单独的、不相关的总统电话，让特朗普变得更加脆弱——彭斯当选总统的可能性也更小。

特朗普10月6日在与土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安(Recep Tayip Erdoan)通话后宣布，政府将从叙利亚东北部撤走美军，使土耳其能够袭击叙利亚库尔德人，这激怒了共和党参议员。安卡拉方面认为，叙利亚的库尔德人援助了土耳其境内的一个分离主义团体，但库尔德战士是美国打败伊斯兰国组织的关键盟友。像美国大多数外交政策制定者一样，共和党领导人认为特朗普的退出是对美国坚定盟友的无可辩护的放弃——也是一个落入伊斯兰国、俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)和叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)手中的鲁莽举动。没有一个共和党参议员表示支持撤军。多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔公开谴责这一举动，参议员林赛·格雷厄姆也是如此，他以前是特朗普的忠实者。

在他们最好的情况下，一些民主党人希望不断演变的乌克兰丑闻能扳倒特朗普和他的副总统。彭斯受到乌克兰丑闻的影响，因为总统在9月份派他去波兰进一步敦促泽兰斯基遏制腐败，尽管不是专门讨论拜登夫妇。10月9日，在回答记者的提问时，彭斯不愿透露他是否意识到特朗普急于获取拜登的丑闻。如果彭斯也以某种方式下跌，众议院议长南希·佩洛西将成为总统。

无论如何，现在看来，这只是一个幻想。更有可能的是:参议院将投票决定是否驱逐特朗普。今天没有罢免投票。但是共和党参议员对总统的不安是显而易见的；他们对反复无常的政府越来越不满，这就是为什么“彭斯总统”不是不可想象的。

让我们考虑一下。

在特朗普时代近乎持续的混乱之后，一个便士的总统任期将带来政治常态的回归。与特朗普相比，这似乎很无聊——许多美国人可能对此表示欢迎。不会有推特风暴。在他担任印第安纳州州长和国会代表期间，他在白宫和内阁中配备了老朋友和顾问，其中一些人已经在特朗普政府中扮演了角色。例如，马克·肖特在成为彭斯的幕僚长之前是白宫立法事务主任，而彭斯的首席医疗保健政策顾问西玛·维尔马负责医疗保险和医疗补助项目。他最亲密的政治顾问是他34年的妻子凯伦·彭斯。同事们说，他将管理一个比现在的主人更加守纪律的白宫。

对大多数共和党人来说，彭斯是一个坚定的保守主义者，主要以其福音派基督教和强烈的反堕胎观点而闻名。他对传统婚姻的支持根植于他的宗教信仰，这是他作为印第安纳州州长时的决定性政治争议的根源——如果他处于竞选白宫的位置，这种争议可能会困扰他。

 

与现任老板特朗普总统不同，彭斯是一个意志消沉的共和党保守派，以其根深蒂固的基督教信仰而闻名。

彭斯的朋友们说，如果他明年某个时候就任总统，他将在2020年独自竞选总统。在2016年之前，他考虑过总统竞选，最终决定寻求连任州长，因为他看不出白宫有什么可信的途径。竞选中的其他州长实在太多了，包括来自中西部的两位，威斯康星州的斯科特·沃克和俄亥俄州的约翰·卡西奇。作为明年的现任者，他将会是领先者，他会把自己标榜为一个稳定的成年人和可靠的保守派。但是彭斯没有戏剧色彩的公众形象可能具有欺骗性。用他的传记作者、政治记者汤姆·洛比安科的话说，“无聊是他的伪装”

彭斯，60岁，出生在印第安纳州哥伦布市一个庞大的中产阶级罗马天主教家庭——六个孩子中的三分之一。政治不是家庭餐桌上的一个突出话题，彭斯说他最早的倾向是民主党。他钦佩约翰·肯尼迪和马丁·路德·金

他在高中时被公众演讲所吸引，预示着他的广播事业，并被选为班长。在印第安纳州南部的一所小型文科学院汉诺威学院，他找到了自己的信仰。他加入了一个名为“晚祷”的基督教小团体，该团体由天主教徒和福音派教徒组成，由传记作者洛比安科(LoBianco)所描述的魅力四射的长者约翰·盖博(John Gable)领导。彭斯在后来的一次采访中回忆道，他是一个福音派基督徒，“他对我很感兴趣，他在和我谈论信仰”。“我说到点子上了，约翰，我决定继续前进，成为一名基督徒。”在1978年4月的一个基督教音乐节上，“我献出了自己的生命，做出了个人决定，相信耶稣基督是我的救世主。”

吉米·卡特，一个重生的基督徒，在1976年以民主党人的身份赢得了总统职位，但是福音运动正在转变。在派特·罗伯森、杰里·福尔韦尔和其他电视福音传道者的领导下，他们变得更加公开政治化，更加保守。投票给卡特的彭斯对他感到失望。但是他后来被他所认为的“罗纳德·里根的常识保守主义”所打动彭斯于1980年投票给里根，此后一直是共和党人。

法学院毕业后，彭斯竞选国会议员，并在1988年和1990年双双落选，随后主持了一个电台脱口秀节目，在全州范围内广为流传，并最终成为每周一次的电视节目。他从来都不富有，但他的媒体生涯和凯伦在基督教学校的教师工作给了他们一种经济稳定的中上阶层生活方式，媒体曝光提高了他在印第安纳州的知名度。

 

副总统和他最亲密、最信任的顾问妻子凯伦·彭斯登上了空军二号。

彭斯在2000年再次竞选国会议员——这次成功了。一到那里，他就与茶党结盟，茶党是众议院共和党核心小组中最保守的一派。(他们把更温和的成员逼疯了，比如当时的共和党众议院领袖约翰·博纳。)在2008年的金融危机中，彭斯和其他茶党成员最初投票反对乔治·布什的财政部长亨利·保尔森在2008年起草的经济救助法案。他们的“不”票导致该法案失败，股市暴跌。保尔森不得不乞求议长南希·佩洛西投民主党的票。

尽管如此，彭斯在国会的时间表明他有一些政治技巧。尽管他隶属于茶党，但他还是设法与包括博纳在内的更有权势的共和党成员建立了牢固的关系。即使在2006年他与博纳竞选众议院共和党核心小组主席之后，他在严重落选后又回到了正轨。博纳并不认为这是针对个人的。他喜欢彭斯，任命他为共和党大会主席——第三个领导职位——并利用他了解更保守的成员的想法。

在国内，彭斯的形象是一个“说教者”，袖子上套着他的宗教信仰，通常投票给保守派。作为一名电台广播员，他公开反对在军队服役的男女同性恋。(“同性恋与兵役是不相容的，因为同性恋者在队伍中的存在削弱了单位凝聚力，”他曾经说过。)。

但为了扮演更重要的角色，他开始缓和这种形象。受欢迎的共和党州长米奇丹尼尔斯在2012年任期有限，彭斯想要这份工作。丹尼尔斯曾作为一名称职的、中间偏右的技术官僚执政，彭斯以丹尼尔斯的形象竞选，强调就业、学校改革和工人再培训，很少强调社会问题，如他反对堕胎。洛比安科说，“teavangelical”被技术官僚所取代，“藏了起来”。彭斯以微弱优势赢得了比赛。

彭斯和他的支持者会辩称，他担任印第安纳州州长的时间表明，他是一位适合白宫的能干的首席执行官。然而，记录显示，他作为国会议员更有效率——最终。尽管共和党控制了印第安纳州立法机构的两院，但他几乎搞糟了一项签名减税法案，因为他没有拉拢那些他需要投票的议员。他的第一任幕僚长，一位名叫比尔·史密斯的福音派老朋友，是个无能的人。有时他妻子的影响会让人们措手不及。根据洛比安科的传记，自认为是财政保守主义者的彭斯提出了一个相当昂贵的学前教育项目，让他的共和党同伴措手不及。“这是从哪里来的，”一名议员问他。“嗯，你知道，凯伦对此很感兴趣，”彭斯回答。"你知道，她是一名学校老师。"

但在他担任州长的第三年，全国其他地方发现了迈克·彭斯是谁。在印第安纳波利斯州议会，一小群基督教保守派议员起草了一项名为《宗教自由恢复法案》的立法。其中，它允许印第安纳州的企业以宗教为由拒绝参加同性婚礼。洛比安科和印第安纳州其他众议院记者当时表示，RFRA立法从来不是彭斯的重点。在起草和辩论该法案时，他很少注意。当他签字时，这是在他办公室的隐私里，只有三名基督教积极分子出席。“这项法案，”彭斯当时说，“与歧视无关，如果我认为它使歧视合法化，我会否决它。”

 

彭斯和保守派盟友在三月份讨论医疗保健。

批评者确实认为这是歧视性的，在同性婚姻在全国被广泛接受的时候，这项立法似乎至少是音盲。印第安纳州的企业界非常愤怒。像Salesforce和苹果这样的大公司说他们在该州做生意会有困难。NCAA即将在印第安纳波利斯举办四强赛，并开始感受到将它转移到其他地方的压力。什么样的彭斯会认为立法是无害的——谁反对宗教自由？—在他脸上爆炸了。

他对危机的处理很有启发性。在与十几名工作人员的两个小时的紧急会议中，彭斯斥责他们让特朗普陷入这一困境。这些工作人员包括民意测验专家和信息塑造者凯莱恩·康威，他们将继续为特朗普工作。彭斯被邀请和乔治·斯蒂芬诺普洛斯一起参加“本周”节目，讨论这个问题，他的工作人员意见不一。两个阵营的人都认为会议结束时他同意他们的观点。印第安纳州一名前彭斯助手表示:“他有能力让许多政治家认为他同意他们的观点，而事实并非如此。”。“只是现在真的不是这样做的时候。这表明他是多么的紧张，他不能和他最亲密的顾问交流他到底要做什么，为什么。他承受了压力。”

彭斯曾表示，他不会签署立法修正案，以明确该法案不会歧视男女同性恋、双性恋和变性者群体——但最终，他还是签署了。正如洛比安科在他的书《虔诚与权力》中所描述的，在考虑2016年竞选白宫时，彭斯向共和党的超级捐助者保罗·辛格求婚。辛格有一个儿子已经出来了，他是同性恋权利的坚定支持者。他建议彭斯，签个名。

彭斯的朋友们认为，RFRA溃败的解决方案表明，他不是批评者所说的喷火的基督教“神权政治主义者”。相反，这表明他是一个雄心勃勃的——现实的——政治家。他的前任米奇·丹尼尔斯(Mitch Daniels)表示:“任何优秀的政治家都必须具备务实的特质。”。

彭斯作为总统在许多方面都是反特朗普的。与现任总统不同，他与国会两院的共和党人有着长期的联系。他和他的工作人员在白宫与当时的议长保罗·瑞安和麦康奈尔合作通过特朗普减税政策中发挥了关键作用。

彭斯在白宫有一批顾问，他们将在白宫担任关键角色，包括现任参谋长马克·肖特。前彭斯的助手们说，特朗普唯一可能留任的人是凯莱恩·康威，他已经认识副总统并与副总统共事多年。特朗普的关键人物，包括代理参谋长米克·马尔瓦尼——彭斯和他关系很好——可能会离开。这包括特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳和他的妻子伊万卡。彭斯现任国家安全顾问基思·凯洛格中将很可能担任彭斯总统的相同职位。特朗普的内阁很可能不会有什么留任者。

彭斯在华盛顿的经历、他在山上的人脉以及他明显的政治和个人自制力并不意味着彭斯的总统任期将没有争议或党派偏见。众所周知，他在社会问题上最尖锐的分歧之一:堕胎上持强硬态度。支持选择的民主党人将不得不担心彭斯任命最高法院法官，罗伊诉韦德案也岌岌可危。他在印第安纳波利斯的一名前工作人员表示，职业法官“肯定”会在彭斯政府的领导下被任命到法院。

在经济、外交和移民等其他关键问题上，他可能会在几个关键领域与特朗普决裂。像特朗普一样，他是一个标准问题，低税收，放松管制的共和党人。但作为一名前茶党成员，朋友们说他对特朗普和民主党国会当前的财政挥霍深感沮丧。前印第安纳州议员、现任华盛顿增长俱乐部主席丹·麦金托什说，如果他当选总统，他会“想控制预算”。

如果彭斯总统在华尔街和更广泛的非法移民问题上表现得软弱无力，他将激怒特朗普的阵营，但这肯定是他在国会时的意识形态。他在印第安纳州对改革的反对者说，对移民采取强硬路线对阻止毒品和毒品贩子越境没有什么帮助，但会把“园丁”拒之门外。他的朋友说，他对移民的支持也植根于他的宗教信仰。彭斯是试图拼凑全面移民改革的团体的积极成员。他与布什、参议员约翰·麦凯恩和美国商会在寻求一项协议上是一致的，他目前的办公室主任是两年来推动改革的关键助手。但这一过程表明彭斯在党内反移民强硬派是多么根深蒂固。他放弃了在众议院达成协议的努力，从那以后一直回避这个问题。然而，如果他在2020年当选，他可能会寻求与民主党达成协议，这似乎是合理的。

同事们说，他的外交政策也会与特朗普的政策决裂——只有一个关键例外。与特朗普不同，彭斯不是孤立主义者。传记作者洛比安科说，他在众议院外交关系委员会呆了八年，“不会签署特朗普最近的联合国演讲”，这基本上是呼吁美国在不直接影响美国利益的情况下干涉其他人的事务。

 

如果彭斯成为总统，伊万卡·特朗普和贾里德·库什纳将出局。2017年8月21日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿迈尔堡军事基地发表讲话时，副总统迈克·彭斯与伊万卡·特朗普坐在一起。

他重视美国联盟，认为它们是增强力量的手段，而不是被不愿自卫的国家掠夺。他会对与朝鲜金正恩达成协议的可能性持更加怀疑的态度，同事们说，他对普京比对特朗普更加警惕。“在外交政策方面，他是一个坚定的共和党当权派，”前密苏里州参议员吉姆·塔兰特说。众议院外交关系委员会的一名前工作人员表示，彭斯愿意使用武力，但谨慎地说:“他已经从伊拉克吸取了教训。”该消息来源称，在外交事务上，彭斯的观点“可能介于乔治·布什和乔治·布什之间”。

特朗普与外交政策的决裂将有一个很大的例外:与中国的关系。合伙人表示，彭斯可能会继续特朗普在贸易上的强硬路线，这让他与共和党国会核心小组的企业分支有所不同，后者在特朗普当选之前都是自由贸易者。

 

彭斯总统？《新闻周刊》的封面问道，几率有多大？他将如何治理？佩洛西总统呢？胶水套件照片插图；马克·马科拉/盖蒂的《便士》

事实上，这是一年前一次与中国相关的演讲，彭斯在演讲中作为副总统在外交政策上留下了最重要的印记。这是自中美关系恢复以来，美国政府对中国发表的最强硬的声明。事实上，它比特朗普更鹰派。彭斯不仅谴责北京的贸易，还谴责其在南中国海的军事活动，以及对该国穆斯林人口的压迫(特朗普从未提及这一点)。北京不会从便士政府那里得到任何救济。

民主党人相信彭斯是可以打败的，但是他们不介意他被乌克兰的传奇故事拖得更久。《华盛顿邮报》在最近一篇题为“彭斯在不知情的情况下发挥了作用”的文章中报道称，特朗普命令彭斯推动乌克兰处理腐败问题，但从未具体提到拜登夫妇。副总统的国家安全顾问基思·凯洛格(Keith Kellogg)是倾听特朗普7月份与乌克兰总统通话的人之一。
这一集让彭斯看起来有点茫然，他尴尬地拒绝向记者证实或否认最近他是否知道特朗普的拜登计划。但是他的工作人员认为华盛顿邮报的故事是一个“胜利”，除非有新的、更具破坏性的信息出来，否则彭斯很可能会幸存下来。如果特朗普明年下台，他将成为总统。

2016年7月，当彭斯得到消息称特朗普将在30分钟内打电话让他知道自己对副总统职位的决定时，他和妻子以及他的三名高级职员都是虔诚的福音派教徒。他请他们手拉手一起祈祷。半小时后，他的祈祷得到了回应。迈克·彭斯早就想当总统。现在他有机会一步之遥。如果参议院对特朗普的命运进行投票，彭斯、他的妻子凯伦和他们的高级助手会再次聚集在一起祈祷吗？
如果是的话，他们会祈祷什么呢？

A Mike Pence Presidency Is No Longer Just Dinner Party Chatter in DC—Is He Up to the Job?

As House Democrats ponder the politics of impeaching Donald J. Trump, they are weighing the possible outcomes. An impeachment inquiry could weaken the president before next year's election and give the White House back to the Democrats, or it could backfire, the way the GOP's effort to oust Bill Clinton did in 1998. But there's a third option: impeachment could succeed. As a senior staffer on the House Judiciary Committee framed the dilemma, "What if we're left with President Pence?"

That scenario has seemed far-fetched—until this week. At the moment there do not seem to be enough GOP senators who would vote to convict Trump if the Democratic-controlled House passes articles of impeachment against him. But the president hasn't been able to quash "Ukraine-gate," the scandal that erupted after a U.S. intelligence whistleblower reported that Trump pressed Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky for dirt on Joe Biden and his son Hunter. Releasing the transcript of the call, which the White House apparently believed was exculpatory, only intensified the pressure. A recent Fox News poll showed a majority—51 percent—now want Trump impeached and removed from office. That was the first major poll showing a majority in favor of Trump's ouster.

But it's a separate, unrelated presidential phone call that's making Trump more vulnerable—and a Pence presidency less unlikely.

Trump's October 6 announcement, after a call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, that the administration would remove U.S. troops from northeast Syria, enabling Turkey to attack Syrian Kurds, enraged Republican senators. Ankara believes the Kurds in Syria aid a separatist group within Turkey, but Kurdish fighters have been crucial U.S. allies in the defeat of the Islamic State group. Like most of the U.S. foreign policy establishment, GOP leaders saw Trump's pullout as an indefensible abandonment of a stalwart American ally—and a reckless move that played into the hands of ISIS, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Not a single Republican senator voiced support of the troop withdrawal. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell denounced the move publicly, as did Senator Lindsey Graham, previously a no-daylight-between-us Trump loyalist.

In their best case scenario, some Democrats hope the evolving Ukraine scandal takes down both Trump and his vice president. Pence has been tainted by the Ukraine scandal because the president dispatched him to Poland in September to further press Zelensky to curb corruption, though not specifically to discuss the Bidens. On October 9, in response to a reporter's questions, Pence would not say whether he was aware of Trump's eagerness to get dirt on Biden. Should Pence somehow fall too, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would become president.

That, for now anyway, seems like a fantasy. Far more likely: the Senate will vote on whether to oust Trump. The votes for removal aren't there today. But Republican senators' unease about the president is palpable; their increasing discomfort with the erratic administration is why "President Pence" is not unthinkable.

So let's think about it.

After the near-constant chaos of the Trump era, a Pence presidency would bring a return to political normality. It would seem, in comparison to Trump, boring—and many Americans might welcome that. There would be no tweet storms. He'd staff his White House and cabinet with old friends and advisers from his days as governor of Indiana and as a congressional representative, several of whom have played roles the Trump administration already. Marc Short, for example, was White House director for legislative affairs before becoming Pence's chief of staff, and Seema Verma, Pence's chief health care policy adviser, runs the Medicare and Medicaid programs. His closest political adviser would be his wife of 34 years, Karen Pence. And he would run, associates say, a far more disciplined White House than its current occupant.

To most Republicans, Pence is a solid, button-downed conservative, known mostly for his evangelical Christianity and strong pro-life views. His support for traditional marriage, rooted in his religion, was the source of what became the defining political controversy of his time as Indiana governor—one that could haunt him should he be in the position of running for the White House.

 

Unlike his current boss, President Trump, Pence is a button-downed Republican conservative well-known for his deeply-held Christian faith.

Should he assume the presidency sometime next year, Pence friends say, he would run to win the presidency on his own in 2020. In the runup to 2016, he considered a presidential run, finally deciding to seek re-election as governor because he saw no plausible lane to the White House. There were simply too many other governors in the race, including two from the Midwest, Wisconsin's Scott Walker and Ohio's John Kasich. As the incumbent next year, he would be the front runner, and he would present himself as a stable grown-up and a reliable conservative. But Pence's drama-free public persona can be deceptive. In the words of his biographer, political reporter Tom LoBianco, "boring is his camouflage."

Pence, 60, was born into a large, middle-class Roman Catholic family—the third of six children—in Columbus, Indiana. Politics was not a prominent topic around the family dinner table, and Pence has said that his earliest leanings were Democratic. He admired John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr.

He gravitated to public speaking in high school, foreshadowing a career as a radio broadcaster, and was elected class president. At Hanover College, a small liberal arts college in southern Indiana, he found his faith. He fell in with a small Christian group called the Vespers, a mix of Catholics and evangelicals, led by what biographer LoBianco describes as a charismatic senior, John Gable. He was an evangelical Christian, "and he had taken an interest in me, and he was talking with me about faith," Pence recalled in a later interview. "And I got to the point where I said, John, I've decided to go ahead and become a Christian." At a Christian music festival in April of 1978, "I gave my life, made a personal decision to trust Jesus Christ as my Savior."

Jimmy Carter, a born again Christian, won the presidency as a Democrat in 1976, but the evangelical movement was shifting. Led by Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell and other televangelists, they were becoming more overtly political, and more conservative. Pence, who had voted for Carter, was disappointed by him. But he was later impressed by what he saw as "the common sense conservatism of Ronald Reagan." Pence voted for Reagan in 1980 and has been a Republican ever since.

After law school, Pence ran for Congress and lost in both 1988 and 1990, then hosted a radio talk show that was heard throughout the state, and which eventually became a weekly television show as well. He has never been rich, but his media career and Karen's job as a teacher at a Christian school gave them a financially stable, upper-middle-class lifestyle, and the media exposure raised his profile in Indiana.

 

The vice president boarding Air Force 2 with his closest and most trusted adviser, wife Karen Pence.

Pence ran again for Congress in 2000—this time successfully. Once there, he aligned himself with the Tea Party, the most conservative wing of the House Republican caucus. (They drove more moderate members, such as then Republican House leader John Boehner, nuts.) Amidst the financial crisis of 2008, Pence and the other tea partiers initially voted against an economic bailout bill crafted by George W. Bush's Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in 2008. Their "no" votes caused the bill to fail and the stock market to crater. Paulson had to beg Speaker Nancy Pelosi for Democratic votes.

Pence's time in Congress nonetheless showed he had some political skills. Despite his affiliation with the Tea Party, he managed to build strong relations with more establishment Republican members including Boehner. Even after he ran against Boehner to lead the House GOP caucus in 2006, he fell back into line after losing the vote badly. Boehner didn't take it personally. He liked Pence, installed him as Republican Conference Chair—the third ranking leadership post—and used him to keep abreast of what the more conservative members were thinking.

Back home, Pence's image was as a "teavangelical," wearing his religion on his sleeve and usually voting with the conservatives. As a radio broadcaster he had spoken out against women and gays serving in the military. ("Homosexuality is incompataible with military services because the presence of homosexuals in the ranks weakens unit cohesion," he said at one point.).

But looking to play a bigger role, he began to temper that image. Popular GOP Governor Mitch Daniels was term limited out of office in 2012, and Pence wanted the job. Daniels had governed as a competent, right-of-center technocrat and Pence campaigned in Daniels' image, stressing jobs, school reform and worker retraining, rarely emphasizing social issues such as his opposition to abortion. The "teavangelical," LoBianco says, "went into hiding," replaced by the technocrat. Pence won the race narrowly.

Pence and his supporters will argue that his time as Indiana's governor demonstrates that he's a capable chief executive fit for the White House. The record shows, though, that he was more effective as a congressman—eventually. Though Republicans controlled both Houses of the Indiana legislature, he almost botched a signature tax cut bill by not riding herd on members whose votes he needed. His first chief of staff, an old evangelical friend named Bill Smith, was ineffective. And there were moments when the influence of his wife caught people off guard. According to LoBianco's biography, Pence, who considers himself a fiscal conservative, caught his fellow Republicans off guard by proposing a fairly expensive preschool program. "Where did this come from," one lawmaker asked him. "Well you know, Karen's interested in this," Pence replied. "She was a school teacher, you know."

But it was in his third year as governor that the rest of the country found out who Mike Pence was. In the Indianapolis state house, a small group of Christian conservative lawmakers drew up legislation called the Religious Freedom Restoration Act. Among other things, it allowed Indiana businesses to refuse to participate in same sex weddings on religious grounds. LoBianco and other state house reporters in Indiana at the time say the RFRA legislation was never a point of emphasis for Pence. He had paid little attention to the bill as it was being drawn up and debated. And when he signed it, it was in the privacy of his office, with only three Christian activists in attendance. "This bill," Pence said at the time, "is not about discrimination, and if I thought it legalized discrimination I would have vetoed it."

 

Pence and conservative allies discussing health care in March.

Critics did believe it was discriminatory, and at a time when gay marriage was broadly becoming accepted across the country, the legislation seemed at the very least tone deaf. The corporate community in Indiana was furious. Major companies like Salesforce and Apple said they would have trouble doing business in the state. The NCAA was about to host the Final Four in Indianapolis and began to feel pressure to move it elsewhere. What Pence would view as harmless legislation—who opposes religious freedom?—blew up in his face.

His handling of the crisis is instructive. During a two-hour emergency meeting with about a dozen members of his staff—including pollster and message-shaper Kellyanne Conway, who would go on to work for Trump—Pence berated them for letting him get into this mess. Pence had been invited to go on "This Week" with George Stephanopolous to talk about the issue, and his staff was divided. People in both camps thought he agreed with them when the meeting ended. "He has the ability a lot of politicians have to make people think he's agreeing with them when he's not," says a former close Pence aide in Indiana. "It's just that this was a really bad time to do that. It showed how on edge he was, that he couldn't communicate with his closest advisers just what the hell he was going to do, and why. The pressure got to him."

Pence had said he would not sign a fix for the legislation to make clear it would not be discriminatory against the LGBTQ community—and yet in the end, he did. As recounted in LoBianco's book, "Piety and Power," while considering a 2016 run for the White House, Pence had courted GOP mega-donor Paul Singer. Singer, who has a son who had come out, was a strong supporter of LGBTQ rights. Sign the fix, he advised Pence.

The resolution of the RFRA debacle, Pence's friends believe, showed that he is not the fire breathing Christian "theocrat," as LoBianco puts it, that his critics allege. It shows instead that he's a deeply ambitious—and realistic—politician. "There's a pragmatic streak there that any good politician has to have," his predecessor Mitch Daniels has said.

Pence as president would be the anti-Trump in any number of ways. Unlike the current president, he has longstanding ties to Republicans in both houses of Congress. He and his staff played a key role for the White House working with then Speaker Paul Ryan and McConnell to get Trump's tax cut passed.

Pence has a cadre of advisers from his House days who would assume key roles in the White House, including current chief of staff Marc Short. The only Trump person likely to stay on, former Pence aides say, is Kellyanne Conway, who has known and worked with the vice president for years. Key Trump players, including acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney—who Pence is friendly with—would likely go. And that includes Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner and his wife Ivanka. Pence's current National Security Adviser, Lt. General Keith Kellog, would likely occupy the same position for a President Pence. There would likely be few holdovers from Trump's cabinet.

Pence's Washington experience, his connections on the Hill and his apparent political and personal self-control do not mean a Pence presidency would be devoid of controversy or partisanship. He is by all accounts a hardliner on one of the most bitterly divisive of social issues: abortion. Pro choice Democrats would have to worry just as much—if not more—about Pence appointing Supreme Court justices with Roe V. Wade on the line. Pro life judges are "certain" to be appointed to the courts under a Pence administration, says a former member of his staff in Indianapolis.

On other key issues like the economy, foreign affairs and immigration, he would likely break with Trump in several key areas. He's a standard issue, low tax, deregulation Republican, as Trump is. But as a former tea partier, he is said by friends to be deeply dismayed by the current fiscal profligacy under Trump and a Democratic Congress. Should he be elected president he'd "want to get a grip on the budget," says Dan McIntosh, former Indiana Congressman and now the president at the Club for Growth in Washington.

President Pence will infuriate the Trump base if he comes across as squishy on the Wall and on illegal immigration more broadly, but that's certainly where he was ideologically when he was in Congress. Speaking to an opponent of reform back in Indiana, he said a hard line on immigration would do little to prevent drugs and drug dealers from crossing the border but it would keep "the gardeners" out. His support for immigration is also rooted, his friends say, in his religious faith. Pence was an active member of the group trying to cobble together comprehensive immigration reform. He was aligned with Bush, Senator John McCain and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in seeking a deal, and his current chief of staff was a key aide in the two-year push for reform. But the process showed Pence how entrenched the anti-immigration hardliners in the party are. He gave up his efforts to get a deal in the House and has steered clear of the issue ever since. Should he be elected in 2020, though, it's plausible he might seek to do a deal with Democrats.

His foreign policy would break with Trump's as well, associates say—with one key exception. Unlike Trump, Pence is no isolationist. He spent eight years on the House Foreign Relations Committee, and "would not sign on to Trump's recent UN speech," says biographer LoBianco, which was basically a call for the U.S. to butt out of everyone else's affairs if they do not directly impact U.S. interests.

 

If Pence becomes president, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner would be out. Vice President Mike Pense sits with Ivanka Trump as President Donald Trump delivers remarks on American involvement in Afghanistan at the Fort Myer military base on August 21, 2017, in Arlington, Virginia.

He values U.S. alliances, seeing them as force multipliers, not rips-offs by countries unwilling to defend themselves. He'd be much more skeptical about the possibility of doing a deal with North Korea's Kim Jong Un and is, associates say, more wary of Putin than Trump is. "He's a solid establishment Republican when it comes to foreign policy," says former Missouri Senator Jim Talent. A former staff member on the House Foreign Relations Committee says Pence is willing to use force, but cautiously: "He's learned the lessons of Iraq." On foreign affairs, Pence's views "are probably somewhere somewhere between George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush," says this source.

There will be one big exception to his break from Trump's foreign policy: relations with China. Pence, say associates, is likely to continue Trump's tough line on trade, something that separates him from the corporate wing of the GOP Congressional caucus who, until Trump got elected, were all free traders.

 

President Pence? Newsweek's cover asks, What are the odds? How would he govern? And what about President Pelosi?

It was a China-related speech one year ago, in fact, in which Pence made his most significant mark on foreign policy as vice president. It was by far the most hawkish statement by a U.S. administration regarding China since the restoration of relations between the two countries. Indeed, it was more hawkish than Trump. Not only did Pence upbraid Beijing on trade, but on its military activity in the South China Sea, and the oppression of the country's Muslim population (something Trump never talks about). Beijing will get no relief from a Pence administration.

Democrats believe Pence would be beatable, but they wouldn't mind if he gets tarred a bit more by the unfolding Ukraine saga. In a recent piece headlined "Pence played role without knowing it," the Washington Post reported that Trump had ordered Pence to push Ukraine to deal with corruption, but never specifically about the Bidens. Keith Kellogg, the vice president's national security adviser, was one of those listening to Trump's July call with the Ukrainian President.
The episode made Pence look out of the loop and a bit clueless, and he awkwardly refused to confirm or deny to reporters recently whether he knew of Trump's Biden scheme. But his staffers considered the Washington Post story a "win," and unless new, more damaging information comes out, Pence will likely survive. If Trump goes down next year, he will be president.

When, in July of 2016, Pence got word that Trump was going to call in 30 minutes to let him know about his decision on the vice presidency, he was in his office with his wife and three senior members of his staff, devout evangelicals all. He asked them to join hands and pray together. A half-hour later, his prayers were answered. Mike Pence had long wanted to be president. Now he had the chance to be a heartbeat away. Should the Senate hold a vote on Trump's fate, will Pence, his wife Karen and their top aides once again gather in prayer?
​And if so, what will they be praying for?