根据美国国家航空航天局天文学家的说法，未来十年内小行星撞击地球的几率在几周内增加了一倍多。
根据美国国家航空航天局的说法，这颗小行星在圣诞节后被发现，并被命名为2024 YR4，可能会在2032年12月撞击地球近地物体研究中心.
当上个月宣布探测到这颗小行星时，美国国家航空航天局预测它撞击地球的概率仅为1.3%。可能性已经增加到3.1%.
美国国家航空航天局喷气推进实验室的导航工程师Davide Farnocchia告诉ABC新闻，总体概率可能很低，但超过2%的小行星撞击概率是“罕见的”。
“用概率得到某样东西...2%对我们来说太高了，”他说。
Farnocchia说，在托里诺等级(对近地物体撞击危险进行分类的方法)中，2024 YR4在10分中排名第三，并补充说大多数太空物体排名为零。
Farnocchia说，该物体是在12月下旬接近地球时被发现的，但现在它正在远离地球。
细长的轨道形状使小行星绕着太阳转，进入地球附近，然后冒险远离火星和木星的轨道。
根据美国国家航空航天局的说法，由于不寻常的轨道，这颗小行星将从4月开始消失，直到2028年。
围绕这块太空岩石的不确定性仍然很突出，因为天文学家们竞相在失去视线之前尽可能多地了解这颗小行星。
“我们不想冒任何风险，”法诺基亚说。
美国国家航空航天局将使用韦伯太空望远镜，有史以来发射到太空的最大、最强大的望远镜，尽可能精确地测量小行星的轨道，该机构宣布的星期一。韦伯望远镜还将使天文学家能够研究2024 YR4发出的红外光，而不是它反射的可见光，这可以对小行星的大小提供更好的估计。
据美国国家航空航天局称，这颗小行星的直径在130英尺到330英尺之间，足够大，如果它撞击一个人口稠密的城市，可能会造成局部破坏。
1908年通古斯卡小行星它在西伯利亚上空爆炸后，大小相似的，夷平了大约1250英里范围内的树木。
Farnocchia说，全球天文学界正在密切关注这颗小行星和任何其他可能影响地球的小行星，使用多台望远镜以及测量方法来详细说明这些物体在太空中的位置。
“我们每天晚上都在追踪这个物体，”他说。
Chance of asteroid striking Earth in the next decade rises to 3.1%, NASA says
The chances of an asteroid striking Earth within the next decade has more than doubled in a matter of weeks, according to NASA astronomers.
The asteroid, discovered just after Christmas and named 2024 YR4, could strike the planet in December of 2032, according to NASA'sCenter for Near Earth Object Studies.
When the detection of the asteroid was announced last month, NASA predicted just a 1.3% probability of it hitting Earth. The likelihood has increased to3.1%.
The overall probability may be low, but more than a 2% chance of an asteroid strike is "uncommon," Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told ABC News.
"Getting something with a probability ... like 2% is high for us," he said.
On the Torino scale -- the method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects -- 2024 YR4 is ranking at three out of 10, Farnocchia said, adding that most space objects rank at a zero.
The object was discovered in late December as it made a close approach towards Earth, but it is now moving away, Farnocchia said.
The elongated shape of the orbit takes the asteroid around the sun and into Earth's vicinity before it ventures far out between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.
Because of the unusual orbit, the asteroid will disappear starting in April until 2028, according to NASA.
The uncertainty surrounding this space rock is still prominent as astronomers race to find out as much as they can about the asteroid before they lose sight of it.
"We don't want to take any chances," Farnocchia said.
NASA will use the Webb Space Telescope, the largest, most powerful telescope ever launched into space, to measure the asteroid’s orbit as accurately as possible, the agencyannouncedon Monday. The Webb telescope will also enable astronomers to study the infrared light that 2024 YR4 emits, rather than the visible light it reflects, which can offer a much better estimate of an asteroid’s size.
The asteroid measures between 130 feet and 330 feet in diameter and large enough to potentially cause localized damage were it to strike a populated city, according to NASA.
In 1908, theTunguska asteroid, which was a similar size, flattened trees over an area of about 1,250 miles after it exploded in the skies over Siberia.
The worldwide astronomy community is paying close attention to this asteroid and any others that could potentially impact the planet using multiple telescopes as well as measurements to detail the objects' positions in space, Farnocchia said.
"We are tracking this object every night," he said.
