经济合作与发展组织(经合组织)在周四发布的一份报告中宣布，全球经济增长可能会减弱至2008年金融危机以来从未出现过的水平。该报告指出，唐纳德·特朗普总统与中国的贸易战是经济前景下滑的一个关键原因。
预计2019年全球经济增长将放缓至2.9%经济合作与发展组织说。该组织表示，2020年的增长率将略微上升至3%。自该组织5月份成立以来，预计增长估计略有下降预测2019年增长3.2%，2020年增长3.4%。
“全球经济正面临越来越严重的逆风，缓慢的增长正变得令人担忧地根深蒂固，”经济合作与发展组织首席经济学家劳伦斯·布恩在新闻稿中说。“持续的贸易紧张引起的不确定性是长期的，减少了世界范围的活动危险我们的经济未来。各国政府需要抓住当前低利率带来的机遇，更新基础设施投资，促进未来经济发展。"
在其新闻稿中经济合作与发展组织还说不确定性关于英国退出欧盟以及中国经济的放缓——增长率为6.2%百分比2019年第二季度，这是自政府开始发布数据以来的最慢速度——将会拖累未来的增长。
这份报告是特朗普贸易战对美国和全球经济前景造成破坏性影响的最新证据。经合组织经济学家预测，美国经济将在2019年增长2.4%，2020年增长2.4%，低于5月份的预测，也低于特朗普政府设定的3%。总统之前提出了达到6%经济增长率的可能性。
尽管越来越多的证据表明，特朗普政府坚持认为，与中国旷日持久的贸易战并没有损害美国经济。
“公平地说，它影响了中国经济，”财政部长史蒂文Mnuchin 说本月早些时候在福克斯商业网上讲话时。"我们还没有看到对美国经济的任何影响。"
但是证据与白宫的说法相矛盾。关税收入由于关税而增加，现在影响超过三分之二的美国消费品从中国进口。9月1日实施的最新一轮关税征收额外的125美元进口费十亿物品价值；从中国进口的2500亿美元已经被征收关税。
摩根大通蔡斯在上个月的一份报告中说，如果特朗普像他威胁的那样对所有从中国进口的商品征税，普通美国家庭将支付1美元1，000每年由于贸易战。彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)估计，每户家庭的年成本接近1300美元更高的。
TRUMP'S CHINA TRADE WAR TIED TO WEAKEST ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SINCE 2008 RECESSION, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC GROUP SAYS
Global growth may weaken to a level that has not occurred since the 2008 financial crisis, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) announced in a report released Thursday that pointed to President Donald Trump's trade war with China as a key cause of declining economic prospects.
Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2019, the OECD said. The organization said that growth would tick slightly upward to 3 percent in 2020. Predicted growth estimates have fallen slightly since May, when the organization predicted growth of 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.4 percent in 2020.
"The global economy is facing increasingly serious headwinds and slow growth is becoming worryingly entrenched," OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said in a press release. "The uncertainty provoked by the continuing trade tensions has been long-lasting, reducing activity worldwide and jeopardising our economic future. Governments need to seize the opportunity afforded by today's low interest rates to renew investment in infrastructure and promote the economy of the future."
In its press release, the OECD also said that uncertainty about Brexit and the slowdown in the Chinese economy—which grew at 6.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019, the slowest rate since the government started releasing data—would weigh on future growth.
The report is the latest evidence of the damaging effects of Trump's trade wars on U.S. and global economic prospects. OECD economists projected the U.S. economy would grow 2.4 percent in 2019 and percent in 2020, down from May projections and below the 3 percent that the Trump administration has targeted. The president previously floated the possibility of reaching 6 percent economic growth.
Despite mounting evidence, the Trump administration has maintained that the protracted trade war with China is not hurting the U.S. economy.
"It's fair to say it's impacted the Chinese economy," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin saidearlier this month while speaking on Fox Business Network. "We have not yet seen any impact on the U.S. economy."
But evidence contradicts the claims coming from the White House. Tariff revenue has increased due to the duties, which now affect more than two-thirds of U.S. consumer items imported from China. The latest tranche of tariffs, which was implemented on September 1, levied import fees on an additional $125 billion worth of items; $250 billion of imports from China were already subjected to tariffs.
JPMorgan Chase said in a note last month that, if Trump levies duties on all imports from China, as he has threatened to do, the average American household will pay a $1,000 each year due to the trade war. Other estimates, such as that of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which estimates the annual cost per household closer to $1,300, are higher.
