前众议院议长保罗·瑞安(Paul Ryan)上周预测，如果不是对2016年有些遗忘，那也可能是一种强烈的乐观情绪，他说，如果前总统唐纳德·特朗普再次参选，因为他不会赢得共和党提名。
科罗拉多州共和党参议员候选人乔·奥迪亚(Joe O'Dea)周末在美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)上说，他希望特朗普不要竞选，同时承诺如果他竞选，将“积极竞选唐纳德·特朗普”。
特朗普周一注意到了这一声明，随后发誓说，O'Dea不会获得“MAGA”的投票。就在同一天，O'Dea碰巧和前总统乔治·w·布什一起筹集资金，为他巩固了一个位置在一个小而独特的列表上现任和前任共和党人参加竞争，同时公开反对特朗普。
该俱乐部的一些更知名的成员包括阿拉斯加州参议员莉萨·穆尔科斯基和佐治亚州国务卿布拉德·拉芬斯佩格，他们都希望提供证据，证明公开反对特朗普和他关于2020年的谎言的共和党人也可以担任公职选举。
在犹他州，独立参议员候选人埃文·麦克穆林(Evan McMullin)是前共和党工作人员，他在2016年在该州以反对川普而闻名，现在正与共和党参议员李政颖竞选。麦克穆林得到了州民主党和新的政治组织众议员亚当·金辛格的支持。尽管李明博公开请求帮助，他还是让他的犹他州同事、参议员米特·罗姆尼在竞选中保持中立。
“如果我们获胜，我不会去华盛顿为唐纳德·特朗普或乔·拜登拍马屁，”麦克穆林周一晚上在与李的辩论中说。
2022年的前景充满了证据，表明反对特朗普对共和党没有好处，从怀俄明州众议员利兹·切尼的初选失败到马加在亚利桑那州和马里兰州的初选中获胜。但是，在特朗普支持的候选人可能在下个月失败和一些共和党人可能违背预期之间，仍有一些信息需要传递。
Sen. Lisa Murkowski attends a hearing in Washington, July 19, 2022.
汤姆·威廉姆斯/美联社，档案
与...的概要阿维里·哈珀
周二，乔·拜登(Joe Biden)在华盛顿发表讲话，预计将把11月的选举框定为全国各州悬而未决的生育权选择。
“总统将谈到选民今年11月面临的选择，共和党人希望在全国范围内禁止堕胎，民主党人希望将罗伊[诉韦德]案编纂成法律，以保护妇女的生殖自由，”民主党全国委员会的一份备忘录写道。
对于民主党人来说，堕胎权一直是吸引中期选民的核心问题。许多人指出，堪萨斯州从州宪法中剥夺堕胎权的提案以压倒性的失败证明了这是一个令人激动的问题。但是没有人能保证生育权会转化为民主党的胜利，因为该党试图继续控制国会。
毕竟，大多数选民没有机会单独就堕胎权投票;尽管无疑会有选民在这个单一问题上做出决定，但民调显示，选民更有可能会考虑一个以上的问题，或者其他问题，如经济，会优先考虑。
这最新的美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报民意调查的调查发现，84%的受访者认为经济是他们投票给国会的首要问题，76%的人认为通货膨胀是首要问题。只有62%的人认为堕胎是首要问题。
小费亚里沙·维尔塞马
现任共和党参议员。马尔科·卢比奥民主党众议员瓦尔·戴明斯将在大约三周后的周二晚上举行的唯一一场辩论中对决飓风伊恩横扫佛罗里达后。风暴的后果很可能是加剧两位立法者之间紧张关系的地方问题之一，以及关于堕胎权和犯罪的全国性讨论。
寻求第三个任期的卢比奥试图给戴明斯贴上“激进分子”的标签，并将她的国会投票记录描绘成众议院议长南希·佩洛西的“傀儡”。这些攻击呼应了其他参议员竞选战场上的言论。但当他们针对前奥兰多警察局长戴明斯时，他们如何在选民中着陆还有待观察，戴明斯同样批评了卢比奥对医疗保险谈判降低药品价格的抵制，以及其他立场。
尽管戴明斯在亲红州以劣势进入竞选，但这位国会女议员在卢比奥的筹款方面领先，这可能是选举最后几周的关键因素。根据最新的联邦选举委员会文件，截至上月底，戴明斯的大规模筹款活动已超过卢比奥2800万美元。
与此同时，卢比奥在选民调查中一直处于领先地位:FiveThirtyEight对8月份以来的平均民调分析显示，截至上周，他的支持率上升了4.6个百分点。
佛罗里达州参议院竞选的结果将有助于决定哪个政党控制上议院的多数席位，但竞选的轨迹可能会影响到今年11月的中期选举之后。虽然佛罗里达州的共和党人近年来一直在全州范围内获胜，但他们的差距一直相对较小，这为翻盘的可能性留下了空间。2020年，唐纳德·特朗普领先乔·拜登略超过3%，2018年，州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯以不到1%的优势赢得了州长官邸。
还有一点
宾夕法尼亚州司法部长乔希·夏皮罗，民主党州长候选人，推出了新的广告抨击他的共和党对手，州参议员道格马斯特里亚诺，直接将他与QAnon阴谋论联系起来。该广告将马斯特里亚诺称为“他们运动的重要组成部分”，并在推特上发布了马斯特里亚诺发布的标签，似乎支持阴谋论。这一信息，连同堕胎，预计将成为夏皮罗竞选团队最后辩论的关键部分。马斯特里亚诺的竞选团队没有回应对该广告的置评请求。
Anti-Trump Republicans are down but not out this midterm season: The Note
The TAKE withRick Klein
There was perhaps a touch of strident optimism -- if not some forgetfulness about 2016 -- in former House Speaker Paul Ryan's prediction last week that it doesn't matter if former PresidentDonald Trumpruns again because he won't win the GOP nomination.
There was also a piece of strategic positioning in Colorado Republican Senate candidate Joe O'Dea saying on CNN over the weekend that he hopes Trump doesn't run -- coupled as it was with a promise to "actively campaign against Donald Trump" if he does.
Trump noticed that statement on Monday, following it with a vow that O'Dea won't get the "MAGA" vote. That went down on the same day that O'Dea happened to be raising money alongside former President George W. Bush, solidifying a place for himon a small but distinct listof current and former Republicans running in competitive races while speaking out publicly against Trump.
Some better-known members of that club include Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger -- both of whom are hoping to provide proof that there's life in public office for Republicans who speak out against Trump and his lies about the 2020election.
In Utah, there's independent Senate candidate Evan McMullin, the former GOP staffer who famously opposed Trump in the state in 2016 and is now running against Republican Sen. Mike Lee. McMullin has the backing of the state Democratic Party and the new political organization of Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill. -- and has kept Lee's Utah colleague, Sen. Mitt Romney, neutral in the race despite Lee's public requests for help.
"I'm not going to Washington, if we prevail, to be a bootlicker for Donald Trump or Joe Biden," McMullin said Monday night at his debate with Lee.
The 2022 landscape is littered with evidence that opposing Trump has no upside for Republicans, from Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney's primary defeat to MAGA wins in primaries from Arizona to Maryland. But between Trump-endorsed candidates who might lose next month and a few Republicans who might defy expectations, there are some messages still to be delivered.
The RUNDOWN withAveri Harper
In remarks from Washington on Tuesday, Joe Biden is expected to frame November's elections as a choice on reproductive rights that are hanging in the balance in states across the country.
"The president will speak about the choice that voters face this November between Republicans who want to ban abortion nationwide, and Democrats who want to codify Roe [v. Wade] into law to protect women's reproductive freedom," reads a memo from the Democratic National Committee.
For Democrats, abortion access has been the centerpiece of the case made to turn out midterm voters. Many point to the overwhelming failure of a Kansas proposal to strip the right to an abortion from the state constitution as proof that it is a galvanizing issue. But there are no guarantees that reproductive rights will translate to Democratic victories as the party tries to hold on to control of Congress.
After all, most voters won't have the opportunity to cast ballots on abortion access alone; and while there are undoubtedly voters who will make their decisions on this single issue, polling suggests it is more likely that voters will be thinking of more than one issue or that other issues, like the economy, will take precedence.
Thelatest ABC News/Washington Post poll, from mid-September, found that 84% of respondents called the economy a top issue in their vote for Congress and 76% said the same about inflation. Only 62% called abortion a top issue.
The TIP withAlisa Wiersema
Incumbent Republican Sen.Marco Rubioand Democratic Rep. Val Demings will face off in their only debate on Tuesday evening, some three weeksafter Hurricane Ian swept across Florida. The aftermath of the storm is likely to be one of the local issues raising tensions between the two lawmakers, alongside the national discourse over abortion access and crime.
Rubio -- who is seeking a third term in office -- has sought to label Demings a "radical" and portrayed her congressional voting record as being that of a "puppet" to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The attacks echo rhetoric espoused in other battleground Senate contests. But it remains to be seen how they land among voters when aimed at Demings, a former Orlando police chief, who has likewise criticized Rubio's resistance to Medicare negotiating lower drug prices, among other positions.
Although Demings entered the race in the red-leaning state as an underdog, the congresswoman has a fundraising lead on Rubio that could prove to be a critical factor in the last weeks of the election. Demings' massive fundraising hauls have outpaced Rubio by $28 million as of late last month, according to the latest available Federal Election Commission filings.
Meanwhile, Rubio is enjoying a consistent lead in voter surveys: FiveThirtyEight's analysis of polling averages since August has him up by 4.6 points as of last week.
The outcome of Florida's Senate contest will help determine which party controls the majority in the upper chamber, but the trajectory of the race has implications that could reach beyond this November's midterm elections. While Florida Republicans have consistently won statewide races in recent years, their margins have been relatively close, which leaves the door open for the possibility of a flip. In 2020, Donald Trump pulled ahead of Joe Biden by just over 3% and in 2018, Gov. Ron DeSantis won the governor's mansion by less than 1%.
ONE MORE THING
Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for governor,is out with a new adhammering his GOP opponent, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, directly linking him to the QAnon conspiracy theory. The ad dubs Mastriano "an important part of their movement" and surfaces tweets in which Mastriano posted hashtags seemingly in support of the conspiracy theory. The message, along with abortion, is anticipated to be a key part of the Shapiro campaign's closing argument. Mastriano's campaign did not respond to a request for comment on the ad.
