一些北卡罗莱纳州的民主党人对他们所说的国家党对参议院提名人Cheri Beasley的支持不足越来越不满，Cheri Beasley似乎陷入了中期地图危机。
民主党人和捐助者告诉美国广播公司新闻，他们看好他们在塔尔赫勒州竞选中接替退休的共和党参议员理查德·伯尔的机会，民主党人说，担任州最高法院首席大法官的黑人女性比斯利是该党能够提出的与共和党提名人众议员特德·巴德对抗的最强有力的候选人。
但工作人员认为，在一个持续红色的摇摆州让她越过终点线将需要华盛顿数千万美元的支持，特别是在该州2020年的竞选是美国最昂贵的参议院竞选之一，并且以不到2分的优势决定之后——在民主党候选人承认婚外情之后。
相反，特工们看到支出流向了其他紫色州，而不是北卡罗来纳州。
“投资是不协调的。不一定什么都没有，只是跟不上- A，在北卡获胜需要的东西;一位与该州竞选活动密切合作的民主党战略家告诉ABC新闻。
“北卡罗莱纳州的竞选，与全国各地得到大量报道的许多其他前线竞选一样竞争激烈，我们没有看到同样的热情和重视，”该消息人士补充说，他要求匿名讨论党的动态。
最近几个周期，北卡罗来纳州一直是民主党在联邦层面的大白鲸:自2008年以来，该党没有在那里赢得过总统或参议院的竞选，尽管他们在州和地方办公室的竞选中取得了更大的成功。
该党在本周期的投资决策可能部分受到共和党预计将在今年11月享受的有利环境的推动，因为居高不下的通货膨胀和其他问题侵蚀了乔·拜登总统的支持率——尽管根据FiveThirtyEight的说法，共和党在哪个政党应该控制国会的一般投票问题上只有微弱的优势。
国民情绪迫使民主党人采取更加防御性的立场，因为他们试图至少保持——而不是扩大——他们在众议院和参议院脆弱的多数席位。北卡罗来纳州的工作人员告诉ABC新闻，该党可能会优先考虑宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州，因为最近在那里取得了成功。
北卡罗莱纳州在两大政党之间的差距很小，注册的民主党人以微弱优势超过共和党人，还有超过250万无党派选民。但是随着城市和郊区罗利和达勒姆人口的迅速增长，加上农村人口的减少，民主党人认为一个州仍然在他们的掌握之中。
在2022年周期的早期，参议院竞选被认为与宾夕法尼亚州的其他翻转机会不相上下，共和党参议员帕特·图米(Pat Toomey)也将退休，而威斯康星州共和党参议员罗恩·约翰逊(Ron Johnson)正在竞选第三个任期。
然而，最近，北卡罗莱纳州的民主党人表示，他们受到了国家党的欺骗，尽管华盛顿的高级官员坚称他们支持比斯利，并且随着11月的临近，资金将会为她提供。
实地工作人员表示，比斯利——今年民主党参议院初选中获得提名的两名黑人女性之一，也是北卡罗来纳州第一位赢得主要政党参议院提名的黑人女性——也为国家党提供了一个绝佳的机会，在承诺优先考虑黑人女性后，他们往往是最可靠的选民。
北卡罗莱纳州被包括在民主党参议员竞选委员会(DSCC)“捍卫多数”计划中，该计划投资3000万美元在9个州组织活动。然而，DSCC没有透露每个州具体会获得多少广告，也没有将北卡罗莱纳州包括在首轮广告购买中。
参议院民主党人的主要超级政治行动委员会(Senate Majority PAC，SMP)在北卡罗来纳州花费了210万美元的广告，尽管它在8月份之后唯一的预订是周二宣布的夏洛特市场的70万美元广告预订。
国家民主党人仍然可以在晚些时候加入进来，来支持比斯利。但迄今为止的资金与流向宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州的资金以及由全国共和党参议院委员会和参议院领导基金(SMP的共和党对手)分别在北卡罗来纳州最初投资的650万美元和2760万美元相比就相形见绌了。
“这只是没有达到它需要的水平，”北卡罗来纳州民主党策略师摩根·杰克逊说，他曾为2020年参议院提名人卡尔·坎宁安的竞选工作。
“我们知道(共和党人)保留了他们的时间，”杰克逊补充说。“民主党人将不得不参与进来，并为这场竞选提供一些资金，以保持竞争力。我认为即使在充满挑战的环境中，Cheri Beasley也能赢得这场比赛。但没有外界的大力支持，她是赢不了的。”
DSCC最初的广告预定包括宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州各300万美元，SMP宣布在每个州至少购买500万美元的广告。亚利桑那州，佐治亚州，内华达州和新罕布什尔州，民主党人在那里为现任者辩护，享受了数百万以上的空中掩护。
卡托巴学院(Catawba College)的政治学教授迈克尔·比策(Michael Bitzer)说，“北卡罗来纳州还没有来自州外的资金，我认为这令人惊讶。”。“从北卡罗来纳州的角度来看，我认为这感觉像是错过了一个投资机会。但如果你看看民主党人必须应对的更广泛的种族问题……他们在将资金用于其他种族方面也是有限的。”
不过，根据FiveThirtyEight的平均民调数据，比斯利迄今在公共民调中实际上与巴德不相上下，而且在个人筹款方面比他有巨大优势，6月底手头有480万美元，而巴德有180万美元。她还展示了赢得全州竞选的能力，并在2020年以大约400票的优势失去了首席大法官的席位，这是北卡罗来纳州有史以来最接近的一次竞选。
“举证的责任不在北卡罗莱纳人或切丽·比斯利或这边的任何人。举证责任在民主党。如果他们决定不优先考虑切丽，很好，他们应该回答为什么他们选择不支持一位前首席大法官的有色人种女性，她正在筹集令人难以置信的资金，可以建立一个有竞争力的联盟，”与北卡罗来纳州竞选活动合作的战略家说。
比斯利获得提名之前，北卡罗来纳州的民主党高层大多被坎宁安或州参议员杰夫·杰克逊(Jeff Jackson)等候选人所吸引，杰克逊多年来一直被宣传为一颗冉冉升起的新星，现在正在竞选众议院席位，该州20%以上的人口是黑人。
两年前，DSCC和SMP联合向Cunningham注资6000万美元，尽管那一年脆弱的在职者较少。
“有时我们的行动与我们的语言不相符。当我们真正指望，特别是非洲裔美国妇女在一些选举中发挥作用时，我们往往没有提名这些妇女作为我们党的旗手，”北卡罗来纳州民主党筹款人布鲁斯·汤普森告诉美国广播公司新闻。“对于北卡罗来纳州来说，让一位非洲裔女性担任我们的美国参议员是一个恰当的时机。”
策略师还表示，比斯利的候选人资格给了民主党一个机会，试图在很大程度上由基本投票率决定的周期中激励核心选民。
“她有一个历史性的候选人资格，我们已经看到历史性的候选人经常给他们的政党和选民打一针强心剂，因为他们有机会创造历史，”杰克逊说。
华盛顿的团体坚持说，他们仍然对比斯利印象深刻，并为今年晚些时候为她保留广告时间敞开大门。
DSCC发言人阿曼达·谢尔曼说:“北卡罗莱纳州是参议院的战场，切丽·比斯利的强大竞选活动和专注于为北卡罗莱纳人寻找解决方案与巴德改变规则以帮助自己和他的特殊利益捐赠者的记录之间的对比使这场比赛竞争激烈。”。
但私下里，国家民主党人对他们是否优先考虑北卡罗来纳州的问题感到愤怒。
当被问及北卡罗来纳州是否被认为与宾夕法尼亚州或威斯康星州一样具有竞争力时，一名参与参议院竞选的民主党人回答说，“亲亲我的a -”
除了在这一轮与北卡罗来纳州竞争或提升一名新的政党明星之外，投资塔尔赫勒州也可能对保持其作为未来几轮竞争的战场至关重要，这是阳光地带(以及亚利桑那州、佐治亚州和其他州)的一个宝贵前景，因为中西部的长期民主党据点变得更具竞争力。
比策教授和其他接受美国广播公司新闻采访的人将北卡罗来纳州与佐治亚州进行了比较，在佐治亚州，多年的大规模选民登记和其他努力为民主党在2020年的周期中取得突破性成功奠定了基础。
“从基层基础设施的角度来看，需要一项真正的长期投资，让选民愿意露面，”比策说。
“从大局来看，这是51-49，52-48，49-48[对共和党有利]，”比策补充说，“除非做出承诺。"
N.C. Democrats grumble over national party investment in Senate race
Some North Carolina Democrats are growing increasingly piqued about what they say is insufficient support from the national party for Senate nominee Cheri Beasley, who appears to be getting caught in a midterm map crunch.
Democratic operatives and donors told ABC News they are bullish on their chances in the Tarheel State race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr -- and, the Democrats say, Beasley, a Black woman who served as state Supreme Court chief justice, is as strong a candidate as the party can put forth against Rep. Ted Budd, the GOP nominee.
But operatives believe getting her across the finish line in a persistently red-tinged swing state is going to take tens of millions of dollars in support from Washington, particularly after the state's 2020 race was one of the country's most expensive Senate contests and was decided by less than 2 points -- after the Democratic nominee admitted to an extramarital relationship.
Instead, operatives are seeing spending go to other purple states but not to North Carolina.
"The investment is incongruous. It's not necessarily that there's none of it, it's just that it's not keeping pace with -- A, what is needed to win in North Carolina; and B, what is being given elsewhere across the country," one Democratic strategist who's worked closely with campaigns in the state told ABC News.
"The race in North Carolina, which is as competitive as many of the other front-line races that are getting a lot of coverage across the country, we're not seeing the same kind of enthusiasm and emphasis," added the source, who requested anonymity to discuss party dynamics.
North Carolina has been a white whale for Democrats on the federal level in recent cycles: The party hasn't won a presidential or Senate race there since 2008, though they have had better success with state and local offices.
The party’s investment decisions this cycle could be partially fueled by the favorable environment the GOP is anticipated to enjoy this November amid stubbornly high inflation and other issues eroding President Joe Biden's approval ratings -- even though, according to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans have only a narrow advantage on the generic ballot question of which party should control Congress.
The national mood has forced Democrats onto a more defensive footing as they seek to at least retain -- rather than expand -- their fragile majorities in the House and Senate. Operatives in North Carolina told ABC News that the party may be prioritizing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin because of more recent success there.
North Carolina is narrowly divided between the two major parties, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by a hair and with more than 2.5 million unaffiliated voters. But with a mushrooming population in urban and suburban Raleigh and Durham combined with shrinking populations in the rural expanses, Democrats see a state still within their grasp.
Early in the 2022 cycle, the Senate race was thought to be on par with other flip opportunities in Pennsylvania, where Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is also retiring, and Wisconsin where Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term.
More recently, however, Democrats in North Carolina say they're getting short-changed by the national party, though top operatives in Washington insist they support Beasley and that the money will be there for her as November nears.
Operatives on the ground say Beasley –- one of two Black women nominated in any Democratic Senate primary this year and the first Black woman to win a major party's Senate nomination in North Carolina –- also offers a prime opportunity for the national party to put its money where its mouth is after promising to prioritize Black women, who are often its most reliable voters.
North Carolina was included in the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's (DSCC) "Defend the Majority" program, a $30 million investment in organizing programs in nine states. However, the DSCC would not disclose how much is going to each state specifically and it did not include North Carolina in its initial round of ad buys.
Senate Majority PAC (SMP), Senate Democrats' main super PAC, has spent $2.1 million in ads in North Carolina, though its only reservation after August was a $700,000 ad reservation in the Charlotte market announced Tuesday.
National Democrats could still swoop in later to boost Beasley. But the funding so far pales in comparison to what's being funneled to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well as the $6.5 million and $27.6 million initially invested in North Carolina by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, SMP's GOP counterpart, respectively.
"It's just not here at the level that it needs to be yet," said Morgan Jackson, a North Carolina Democratic strategist who worked on the campaign for 2020 Senate nominee Cal Cunningham.
"We know [Republicans] reserved their time," Jackson added. "Democrats are going to have to come in and help match some of that money for this race to stay competitive. And I think this is a race Cheri Beasley can win even in a challenging environment. But she can't win without a lot of support from the outside."
The DSCC's initial ad reservations included $3 million for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin each, and SMP has announced at least $5 million in ad buys in each state. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire, where Democrats are defending incumbents, have enjoyed millions more in air cover.
"I think it's been surprising the lack of out-of-state money that has not yet come in North Carolina," said Michael Bitzer, a politics professor at Catawba College. "From a North Carolina point of view, I think that there feels like a missed opportunity to get invested. But if you look at the broader range of races that Democrats have to deal with … they're limited in terms of where they've got money to direct to those other races as well."
Still, Beasley is virtually tied with Budd in public polling so far, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling average, and has a gargantuan individual fundraising advantage over him, finishing June with $4.8 million on hand compared to $1.8 million for Budd. She's also demonstrated an ability to win statewide races and only lost her seat as chief justice in 2020 by about 400 votes in what was one North Carolina's closest races ever.
"The burden of proof is not on North Carolinians or Cheri Beasley or anyone down this side. The burden of proof is on the Democratic Party. And if they are deciding not to prioritize Cheri, fine, they should just have to answer as to why they have chosen not to back a woman of color who's a former chief justice, who is raising incredible money and can build a competitive coalition," said the strategist who's worked with North Carolina campaigns.
Prior to Beasley's nomination, top Democrats in North Carolina were mostly drawn to candidates like Cunningham or state Sen. Jeff Jackson, who has been hyped for years as a rising star and is now running for a House seat, in a state where more than 20% of the population is Black.
Two years ago, the DSCC and SMP combined to shower $60 million on Cunningham, albeit in a year with fewer vulnerable incumbents.
"Sometimes our actions don't match up with our words. And when we have really counted, especially, on African-American women to make a difference in a number of elections, too often we weren't nominating those same women to be the standard bearer for our party," North Carolina Democratic fundraiser Bruce Thompson told ABC News. "It's the right time for North Carolina to have a female African-American as our U.S. senator."
Strategists also say Beasley's candidacy hands Democrats a chance to try and energize a core constituency in a cycle that will largely be dictated by base turnout.
"She has an historic candidacy, and we've seen historic candidates oftentimes give a shot in the arm to their party and their voters because they have the chance to make history," Jackson said.
Groups in Washington insist they're still impressed with Beasley and are leaving the door open to reserving ad time for her later this year.
"North Carolina is a Senate battleground, and the contrast between Cheri Beasley’s strong campaign and focus on finding solutions for North Carolinians with Budd’s record of changing the rules to help himself and his special interest donors is making the race highly competitive," said DSCC spokesperson Amanda Sherman.
But privately, national Democrats bristle at questions on whether they're making North Carolina a priority.
When asked whether North Carolina is considered as competitive as Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, one Democrat involved in Senate races replied, "Kiss my a--."
Beyond contesting North Carolina this cycle or boosting a new party star, investing in the Tarheel State could also be crucial to keeping it as a battleground for future cycles, a valuable prospect in the Sun Belt (along with Arizona, Georgia and others) as longtime Democratic strongholds in the Midwest get more competitive.
Professor Bitzer and others who spoke to ABC News compared North Carolina to Georgia, where years of massive voter registration and other efforts laid the groundwork for Democrats' breakthrough successes in the 2020 cycle.
"There needs to be, from a grassroots infrastructure approach, a real long-term investment in making voters care to show up," Bitzer said.
"In the grand scheme of things, it's 51-49, 52-48, 49-48 [in Republicans' favor]," Bitzer added, "unless that commitment is made."
