美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯宣布，美国已经向俄罗斯提出了一项“实质性的提议”，旨在让两名被关押在俄罗斯的美国人回国——WNBA明星布兰妮·格里纳和前海军陆战队队员保罗·惠兰——这是人质外交领域极其罕见的披露，在达成协议之前，几乎不会透露任何信息。作为囚犯交换的一部分，被定罪的军火商维克托·布特被交出，这一消息的披露加剧了人们的猜测，即这些被拘留者可能很快就要回家了。
但尽管有这些进展，而且布林肯周五重启了与俄罗斯总统的直接讨论——这是自乌克兰战争爆发以来他们的首次互动——专家警告称，在格林纳和惠兰获释之前，可能还有很长的路要走。
Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a news conference after meeting with top Japanese Ministers at the U.S. State Department, on July 29, 2022, in Washington, D.C.
德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社
审判延迟
虽然Griner因毒品指控自2月以来一直被俄罗斯拘留并认罪，但她尚未被定罪。虽然有罪判决几乎是肯定的，但俄罗斯一直表示，它希望在达成任何协议之前看到其法律程序结束。
“这是俄罗斯法律要求的，”威尔逊中心凯南俄罗斯和欧亚高级研究所所长威廉·波莫兰兹(William Pomeranz)说。"要求必须有一个最终的判决。"
Pomeranz警告说，该国的法律制度“总是有漏洞”,但她说，莫斯科希望在对囚犯交换或类似协议做出决定之前，看起来一直坚持到她被判刑之后。
格林纳的审判于7月初开始，俄罗斯法院观察家预测，审判可能在夏季结束前结束。但没有明确的时间表，她的初步拘留已经被授权到12月20日。
如果你是一个谈判者，这不是你希望你的对手拥有的那种控制。
“如果俄罗斯人想拖延，他们可以这样做。这将取决于俄罗斯法院如何快速做出决定，”Pomeranz说。
数字游戏
今年春天，拜登政府进行了首次囚犯交换，用另一名前美国海军陆战队队员特雷弗·里德(Trevor Reed)交换了俄罗斯公民、已被定罪的毒贩康斯坦丁·雅罗申科(Konstantin Schmidt)。
虽然里德的回国受到欢迎，但他和其他许多人质疑为什么惠兰被留下来。惠兰已经因被美国政府称为“捏造”的间谍指控而被关押在俄罗斯三年多。
周四，美国国务院发言人奈德·普莱斯(Ned Price)拒绝透露美国是否会参与一项只有惠兰或格林纳获得自由的交易，但政府提出的提议寻求一揽子交易并不令人惊讶。
然而，即使对格林纳的指控在美国甚至不构成轻罪，而且政府表示对惠兰的指控是捏造的，俄罗斯可能会期待比布特或任何个人囚犯更多的回报。
Pomeranz说:“俄罗斯人想要同等的东西。“因此，如果有两名美国人被提议交换，俄罗斯人将坚持两名俄罗斯人被美国关押。”
这意味着拜登政府将不得不增加交易的甜头，并让自己因让俄罗斯罪犯逍遥法外而受到更多批评。
虽然莫斯科可能会说布特是一个高度优先事项，前国防和国务院官员和美国广播公司新闻撰稿人史蒂夫甘亚德上校说，事实上，他不是。
“他不是给美国国家安全造成重大损害的间谍，”甘亚德说。“他们从戳美国的眼睛中得到更多的好处，更重要的是，让白宫看起来绝望。"
宣传推?
奥巴马政府向莫斯科提出一项协议的事实，或许最能说明这种绝望情绪。
“如果进展顺利，敏感的谈判在完成之前是不会公开的，”Ganyard说。“公布这一提议是转移美国国内压力的一种方式，但它实际上是承认沮丧和软弱，从而损害了白宫的谈判地位。”
普莱斯周四承认，鉴于自首次提出报价以来已经过去了很长时间，显然这笔交易没有像美国外交官所希望的那样收到。
他说:“我们认为，这一信息，这一实质性的提议，已经在最近几周通过适当的渠道直接和反复地传达了——当然是在没有决议的情况下。”。
“事实是，现在，几个星期后，我们在这里，我认为你可以理解为这是一个事实，即这并没有达到我们希望的程度，”普莱斯补充说。
到目前为止，俄罗斯还没有公开表示他们准备认真参与。
“除非有一些我们不知道的幕后活动，否则布兰妮·格里纳和保罗·惠兰将继续成为旷日持久的谈判中的棋子，”甘亚德说。
Why the proposed prisoner swap may not quickly free detainees in Russia: Analysis
Secretary of State Antony Blinken's announcement that the U.S. had put a "substantial offer" on the table for Russia aimed at bringing home two Americans imprisoned in Russia -- WNBA star Brittney Griner and former Marine Paul Whelan -- was an exceedingly rare disclosure in the world of hostage diplomacy, where almost nothing is revealed until a deal is done. The revelation that convicted arms dealer Viktor Bout had been offered up as part of a prisoner swap only intensified speculation that the detainees might soon be on their way home.
But despite these developments, and Blinken restarting direct discussions with his Russian counterpart on Friday -- their first interaction since the outbreak of war in Ukraine -- experts caution there is still likely a long way to go before Griner and Whelan are released.
Trial delay
While Griner has been in Russian detention since February on drug charges and pleaded guilty, she has yet to be convicted of a crime. Although a guilty verdict is all but assured, Russia has consistently signaled that it wants to see its legal process play out before brokering any kind of agreement.
"That's what is required under Russian law," said William Pomeranz, the director of the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute for advanced research on Russia and Eurasia. "It's required that there has to be a final judgement."
Pomeranz cautions that there are "always loopholes" in the country's legal system, but says that Moscow wants to appear to have held out until after her sentencing before making a determination on a prisoner exchange or similar agreement.
Griner's trial began in early July, and Russian court watchers have predicted it could conclude before the end of summer. But there is no clearly set timeline and her preliminary detention has already been authorized through Dec. 20.
That's not the kind of control you want your adversary to have if you're a negotiator.
"If the Russians want to delay, they can do so. It will be up to the Russian court as to how fast and expedited a decision is made," Pomeranz said.
A numbers game
This spring, the Biden administration conducted its first prisoner swap, exchanging Russian citizen and convicted drug trafficker Konstantin Yaroshenko for another former U.S. Marine, Trevor Reed.
While Reed's return home was welcomed, he and many others questioned why Whelan -- who has already been locked away in Russia for over three years on espionage charges the U.S. government has called "trumped up" -- was left behind.
On Thursday, State Department Spokesperson Ned Price declined to say whether the U.S would take part in a deal that saw only Whelan or Griner freed, but it comes as no surprise that the offer put forward by the administration seeks a package deal.
However, even though the allegations against Griner wouldn't even amount to a misdemeanor in the U.S. and the government says the case against Whelan is fabricated, Russia will likely expect more than Bout -- or any individual prisoner -- in return.
"The Russians will want to have equivalency," said Pomeranz. "So if there are two Americans who are being proposed for a swap, the Russians will insist on two Russians in American custody."
This means the Biden administration would have to sweeten the deal -- and open itself up to more criticism for letting Russian criminals walk free.
And while Moscow might say Bout is a high priority, former Defense and State Department official and ABC News contributor Col. Steve Ganyard says in reality, he isn't.
"He is not a spy who caused major damage to U.S. national security," Ganyard said. "They get more mileage out of poking a finger in the United States' eye, and more importantly, making the White House look desperate."
Publicity push?
The very revelation that the administration offered Moscow a deal may speak best to that desperation.
"A sensitive negotiation isn't made public before it's done if it's going well," said Ganyard. "Publicizing the offer is a way of deflecting U.S. domestic pressure, but it's actually hurting the White House negotiating position by admitting frustration and a weak hand."
Price admitted on Thursday it was evident that the deal had not been received as U.S. diplomats had hoped given the amount of time that had passed since the offer was first made.
"We believe that now that this message, this substantial proposal, has been conveyed directly and repeatedly through appropriate channels in recent weeks -- of course without resolution," he said.
"The fact that now, several weeks later, we are where we are, I think you can read into that as being a reflection of the fact that this has not moved to the extent we would like," Price added.
So far, the Russians have given no public indication that they are ready to seriously engage.
"Unless there is some behind-the-scenes movement we don't know about, Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan will continue to be pawns in a drawn-out negotiation," said Ganyard.
