与...的关系里克·克莱因
在描述共和党的状况时，对特朗普和永不特朗普二元选择的关注没有击中要害——无论是在描述其最近的过去还是预测其中期未来方面。
1月6日众议院听证会的夏季爆发，加上雄心勃勃的共和党人的一系列演讲，包括预计本周在华盛顿举行的竞争活动，揭示了至少三个独立的共和党部分。
从唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)实际控制的大部分政党开始。对于这些选民和候选人来说，坚持关于2020年大选的谎言仍然是一个咒语，对他们来说，对前总统的不忠是没有资格的，而特朗普本人正在为另一场可能的竞选做准备。
此外还有人数少得多、可能还在不断减少的永不胜出的共和党人。1月6日的听证会使他们最近获得了关注，但随着伊利诺伊州众议员亚当·金辛格(Adam Kinzinger)被迫退休，以及怀俄明州众议员利兹·切尼(Liz Cheney)可能在初选中失败，那些对特朗普及其谎言采取坚定立场的人可能会越来越少。
然而，党内最重要的部分却坚定地不属于任何一个阵营。前副总统迈克·彭斯和佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯可能是两位最受瞩目的共和党人，他们试图在共和党内找到自己的位置——忠于特朗普主义及其主要目标，但试图避开特朗普关于2020年的最令人震惊的谎言。
保守派会议将在本周把共和党的不同派系带到华盛顿。彭斯是周一传统基金会活动和周二青年美国基金会聚会的主讲人;特朗普将于周二在华盛顿举行的美国第一议程峰会上发表他上任后的首次演讲。
永远不会成为特朗普的一群人现在可能会变得不那么引人注目，至少在1月6日秋季听证会恢复之前是如此。金辛格周日对该党的发展方向进行了温和的评估，这一观点可能会得到更多共和党人的认同，而不是公开表示。
“特朗普主义没有消亡，尽管特朗普变得无关紧要，”金辛格在美国广播公司(ABC)的乔纳森·卡尔(Jonathan Karl)的“本周”节目中说。
与...的概要亚里沙·维尔塞马
戴维·雅各布尼斯(David Jakubonis)被指控上周试图袭击纽约众议员李·泽尔丁(Lee Zeldin)，在因联邦指控袭击国会议员而被捕后，于周六首次出庭。
据美国广播公司新闻频道(ABC News)的艾伦·卡特斯基(Aaron Katersky)报道，雅各布斯此前被控犯有企图袭击罪，据称他在罗切斯特附近的一次竞选演讲中说了“你完了”，并向共和党州长候选人泽尔丁(Zeldin)发起攻击。
这一事件被摄像头拍了下来，这位陆军老兵最初因国家指控被传讯，并在自己具结后获释，尽管联邦检察官表示，在周三举行听证会之前，他应该被拘留，以确定他是否有危险的逃跑风险。据美联社报道。(他的律师告诉美联社，他应该被释放。)
这种情况为泽尔丁提供了一个在纽约犯罪率上取得个人胜利的机会，这已经成为他最重要的竞选重点之一。
“美国检察官逮捕了在我们的竞选集会上试图刺伤我的人。感激他们来做纽约破碎的亲刑事司法系统不能维护法治。无现金保释必须废除&法官需要酌情决定对更多的罪行设定现金保释，”泽尔丁周六在推特上说。
这一事件似乎也突显出人们对针对国内外政界议员和其他知名人士的暴力行为越来越担忧。上个月，国会扩大了最高法院法官及其家人的安全保障，此前一名武装男子在布雷特·卡瓦诺法官的家附近被捕，据称他计划杀害他。
最近，日本前首相安倍晋三在发表竞选演讲时遇刺身亡，这是一次令人震惊的袭击，发生在一个几乎没有枪支暴力、在全球享有世界上最安全国家之一声誉的国家。
在国内，对泽尔丁的攻击可能会滋生更多的党派仇恨。紧随其后，得克萨斯州共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹指责这是“左派鼓励暴民暴力”
“这是多年来妖魔化警察的结果...当然，还有那个试图谋杀纽约共和党州长候选人的家伙。几小时后被释放。这太疯狂了。这太疯狂了，”克鲁兹周五在转折点美国峰会上对观众说。
据美联社援引法庭记录称，泽尔丁案件中的嫌疑人告诉当局，他一直在与酒精中毒和焦虑作斗争，喝威士忌，在争吵期间“肯定已经结账”，并且“不知道说话的人是谁”。
小费莉比·凯茜
随着前总统特朗普和前副总统彭斯周末在亚利桑那州州长竞选中为竞争对手游说，该州的选民似乎陷入了这两位共和党重量级人物之间的代理权争夺战，目前正在对2020年大选产生影响。
在皮奥里亚举行的一次宴会式活动中，约有350名客人参加，彭斯与州长道格·杜西(Doug Ducey)一起支持富有的捐赠者、亚利桑那州董事会前成员卡林·泰勒·罗布森(Karrin Taylor Robson)，后者被广泛视为当权派候选人。在上周1月6日的黄金时段听证会后，彭斯只提到了特朗普，以吹捧他们一起取得的成就，同时还抨击了特朗普在亚利桑那州州长竞选中选择的候选人卡莉·莱克，称“有人想让这场选举成为过去。”
与此同时，特朗普继续在普雷斯科特谷的一次大型集会上哀悼2020年的选举，旁边是莱克，一名前当地新闻主播变成了“超级妈妈”。莱克称乔·拜登总统为“私生子”，特朗普为“超人”，激动的人群向她喊着“我爱你”。
8月2日的初选是对共和党人是想与特朗普继续前进还是摆脱他的考验——一名犹豫不决的选民告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)，她没有被特朗普的支持所动摇，但可能会被排斥。
“有太多的人不喜欢他，所以无论他支持谁，他在初选和大选中都会很艰难，”阿纳斯塔西娅·凯勒(Anastasia Keller)说，她是一名终身的共和党人和亚利桑那州人，在2020年支持特朗普，但有亲戚与他断绝关系。“他们真的很喜欢特朗普和他的主张，他完成的一些事情，但卑鄙的推文和整体态度——我只是不认为他能让这个国家团结起来。”
在周六的莱克市政厅，彭斯因为支持罗布森而引起了选民的愤怒。
“对我来说，这只是重申了我对便士的失望，”莱娜·佩雷斯说。“我和迈克·彭斯已经结束了。他在证明他到底是谁。”
今天的数字，由五点三十八分驱动
第四。这是新罕布什尔州在FiveThirtyEight弹性指数中的排名，该指数衡量一个州对国家趋势的敏感程度。正如FiveThirtyEight的主编内特·西尔弗所写的，没有太多的好处参议院的共和党人但是像新罕布什尔这样的州可能会很有意思，因为它的选民更有独立倾向。阅读更多关于Nate的内容FiveThirtyEight 2022年中期选举预测。
GOP shows three-way split over past and future: The Note
The TAKE with Rick Klein
The focus on the Trump and never-Trump binary choice misses the mark when it comes to describing the state of the Republican Party -- both in describing its recent past and predicting its medium-term future.
The summer burst of Jan. 6 hearings in the House, coupled with a developing series of speeches by ambitious Republicans -- including what's expected at competing events in Washington this week -- reveal at least three discrete segments of the GOP.
Start with the large portion of the party that remains effectively under the control of Donald Trump. They are voters and candidates for whom clinging to falsehoods about the 2020 election remains a mantra and for whom perceived disloyalty to the former president is disqualifying, while Trump himself prepares for another possible run.
Then there's the much smaller and probably still shrinking ranks of never-Trump Republicans. The Jan. 6 hearings have given them recent prominence, but the ranks of those who have taken a firm stance against Trump and his lies are likely to be thinning with forced retirements, including of Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger, and the possible primary defeat of Rep. Liz Cheney in Wyoming.
The part of the party that could matter the most, however, is firmly in neither camp. Former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis might be the two highest-profile Republicans to try to place themselves elsewhere in the GOP -- loyal to Trumpism and its main goals, yet trying to steer away from the most egregious Trump falsehoods about 2020.
Dueling conservative conferences will bring different wings of the Republican Party to Washington this week. Pence is the featured speaker at a Heritage Foundation event Monday and a Young America's Foundation gathering Tuesday; Trump will give his first post-presidential speech in Washington at the America First Agenda Summit on Tuesday.
The never-Trump cohort will likely get less visibility for now, at least until Jan. 6 hearings resume in the fall. Kinzinger on Sunday offered a tempered assessment of where the party is heading, with a sentiment more Republicans probably agree with than may say publicly.
"Trumpism isn't dying, even though Trump is becoming irrelevant," Kinzinger told ABC's Jonathan Karl on "This Week."
David Jakubonis -- the armed man accused of trying to attack New York Rep. Lee Zeldin last week -- made his initial appearance before a magistrate on Saturday after being arrested on a federal charge of assaulting a member of Congress.
Jakubonis was previously charged with a state crime of attempted assault after he allegedly said "you're done" and came at Zeldin -- a Republican gubernatorial candidate -- during a campaign speech near Rochester, ABC News' Aaron Katersky reported.
Following the incident, which was captured on camera, the Army veteran was initially arraigned on the state charge and released on his own recognizance, though federal prosecutors said he should be detained pending a hearing Wednesday as to whether he is a dangerous flight risk, according to The Associated Press. (His attorney told The AP he should be freed.)
The situation offered Zeldin the opportunity to take a personal victory lap over New York's crime rates, which has become one of his foremost campaign priorities.
"The [U.S. attorney] arrested the person who tried stabbing me at our campaign rally. Grateful they came in to do what NY's broken pro-criminal justice system could not - uphold the rule of law. Cashless bail must be repealed & judges need discretion to set cash bail on far more crimes," Zeldin tweeted on Saturday.
The incident also appeared to spotlight a growing concern over violence aimed at lawmakers and other high-profile figures in the political sphere at home and abroad. Last month, Congress expanded the security given to Supreme Court justices and their families after an armed man was arrested near Justice Brett Kavanaugh's home with an alleged plan to kill him.
More recently, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated while giving a campaign speech -- a shocking attack in a country with little gun violence and a global reputation as one of the world's safest nations.
At home, the attack on Zeldin could breed more partisan resentment. On the heels of the event, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, blamed it on "the left encouraging mob violence."
"This is the result of years of demonizing cops ... And then, of course, the guy who attempts to murder the Republican candidate for governor in New York. Gets let out of jail hours later. This is nuts. This is insane," Cruz said before an audience at the Turning Point USA Summit on Friday.
Per The AP, citing court records, the suspect in Zeldin's case told authorities that he has struggled with alcoholism and anxiety, consumed whiskey and "must have checked out" during the altercation and "did not know who the speaker was."
The TIP with Libby Cathey
With former President Trump and former Vice President Pence stumping for competing candidates in the Arizona governor's race over the weekend, the state's voters appeared to be caught in a proxy-battle between the two Republican heavyweights amid ongoing fallout over the 2020 election.
At a banquet-style event in Peoria with roughly 350 guests, Pence joined Gov. Doug Ducey to support Karrin Taylor Robson, a wealthy donor and former member of the Arizona Board of Regents who is widely seen as the establishment candidate. In the wake of last week's prime-time Jan. 6 hearing, Pence only mentioned Trump to tout their accomplishments together while also taking a swipe at Trump's chosen candidate in the Arizona's governor's race, Kari Lake, saying "There are those who want to make this election about the past."
Meanwhile, Trump continued to lament the 2020 election at a large rally in Prescott Valley alongside Lake, a former local news anchor turned "Ultra-MAGA mom." Lake called President Joe Biden "illegitimate" and Trump "Superman" to an energized crowd that shouted "I love yous" back to her.
The Aug. 2 primary presents a test of whether Republicans want to move forward with Trump or move on from him -- with one undecided voter telling ABC News that she wasn't swayed by Trump's endorsement but was, potentially, repelled by it.
"There's too many people that don't like him, so whoever he is sponsoring is going to have a hard time in the primary and in the general election," said Anastasia Keller, a lifelong Republican and Arizonian who supported Trump in 2020 but had relatives break off from him. "They really liked Trump and what he stood for, some of the things that he accomplished, but the mean tweets and the overall attitude -- I just don't think that he can bring the country together."
At a town hall for Lake on Saturday, it was Pence that had voters' ire for siding with Robson.
"To me, it just reiterated my disappointment in Pence," said LeAnna Perez. "I'm done with Mike Pence. He's proving who he truly is."
NUMBER OF THE DAY, powered by FiveThirtyEight
4th. That’s where New Hampshire ranks on FiveThirtyEight’s elasticity index, which is a measure of how sensitive a state is to national trends. And as FiveThirtyEight’s editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, there’s not a whole lot of upside for Republicans right now in the Senate, but a state like New Hampshire could be potentially interesting as its voters have more of an independent streak. Read more from Nate on FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm election forecast.
