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麦考密克的下一步是什么?奥兹·斯奎克尔和马斯特里亚诺担任州长可能带来的选举动荡

2022-05-19 11:49  -ABC   - 

全国各地的许多人——当然还有前总统唐纳德·特朗普——都在观看宾夕法尼亚州。

共和党参议院初选的选票仍在统计中极薄的页边距分离对冲基金经理大卫麦考密克和名人电视博士穆罕默德奥兹。与此同时,特朗普在共和党州长初选中的后期支持帮助选举否认者和州参议员道格·马斯特里亚诺(Doug Mastriano)赢得了胜利。两次竞选都提供了关于这个关键州的保守派选民的见解,并提出了一些棘手的问题。

截至周三下午,随着98%的选票已经统计麦考密克和奥兹都获得了大约31%的选票,只差大约2000票。宾夕法尼亚州的法律规定,如果一名候选人的胜率只有0.5%或更低,就会触发重新计票,这似乎是确定无疑的。

以下是参议院竞选中发生的事情,以及关于州长竞选的一些信息。

奥兹和麦考密克的下一步是什么?

在共和党参议院初选中只有大约2%的选票有待统计。但在这种情况下,这2%是关键。

宾夕法尼亚州的许多县直到选举日才开始统计邮寄选票,因此该州67个县仍有足够多的未决选票需要统计,因此结果还无法预测。

国务卿办公室周二晚上告诉美国广播公司新闻,在兰开斯特县提出了另一个问题,“大约有22,000张邮寄选票被印刷商用错误的代码印刷,无法被该县的扫描仪读取”。县选举官员正在手工重新标记和扫描选票,这可能需要几天时间。

如果票数差距要求在所有选票统计完毕后重新计票,国务卿将启动这一程序。

特朗普从自己的剧本中抽出一页,拒绝等待每一张选票都被计算在内,周三公开敦促奥兹“宣布胜利”。特朗普继续在即将到来的选举结果中播种怀疑,利用他的社交媒体应用程序Truth Social再次攻击邮寄选票。

在过去的两年里,共和党人一直不愿意依靠这种投票方式——不断地批评和指责削弱选择权这是数百万美国人在新冠肺炎疫情鼎盛时期所依赖的,尽管有证据表明存在大范围的欺诈。但是一场关键的竞争仍在考验着党内的耐心。

邮寄选票的延迟和打印错误的结合是导致投票结果延迟的部分原因麦考密克-奥兹竞赛。但另一个因素是极右翼保守派评论员凯西·巴尼特(Kathy Barnette)的优势——超过了特朗普的反对。

巴尼特-2021年1月6日参加了特朗普的集会,以及有人看见他和其他人一起去了美国国会大厦在致命的骚乱(她否认参与其中)之前,过去几周支持率飙升,似乎在特朗普的基础上分裂了选票,远离了奥兹和麦考密克。截至周三下午,她获得了约25%的选票,而其他人分别获得了31%的选票,这突显出共和党初选选民有多么不同寻常地分裂。

在初选前的几天,特朗普紧追巴尼特,说她无法在大选中击败民主党提名人(最终成为副州长约翰·费特曼)。他还抨击了她的背景,说“她过去有许多事情没有得到适当的解释或审查。”巴尼特告诉NBC新闻特朗普不得不说,因为“他将坚持这种支持。”

但在特朗普本月早些时候在宾夕法尼亚州举行的旨在支持奥兹的集会上,当地选民表示怀疑,理由是奥兹在COVID疫苗、堕胎权和第二修正案上的立场发生了变化。相反,许多人告诉ABC新闻,他们更喜欢巴尼特,称她为真正的保守派。

“MAGA [《让美国再次伟大》]不属于特朗普总统,”巴尼特在上个月的一次辩论中说。" MAGA——虽然他创造了MAGA这个词,但它实际上属于人民."

如果没有巴尼特的成功,很可能麦考密克或奥兹会更果断地赢得这场比赛,避免被召回的可能性,而共和党人更希望能够转向即将到来的将军对抗羁绊人。

奥兹和麦考密克争夺的参议院席位目前由即将退休的共和党参议员帕特·图米(Pat Toomey)占据。这将是共和党的一个重大损失,也是民主党的一个重要收获,他们希望在50-50的参议院中保持微弱的控制。

法宝宣布他的支持引用后者的受欢迎程度和过去对特朗普健康的赞美。他认为奥兹最有可能在11月的中期选举中获胜。但即使没有特朗普梦寐以求的支持,来自康涅狄格州的对冲基金所有者麦考密克也赢得了许多选票。麦考密克得到了得克萨斯州参议员特德·克鲁兹的支持,他的妻子曾在特朗普政府工作。

在周二与美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)的通话中,麦考密克在称赞特朗普的同时保持了微妙的平衡,辩称他的支持在竞选中无关紧要。

麦考密克和奥兹都在各自的选举之夜派对上发言,承认他们的竞选难分胜负。

“我们今晚不会有决议,但我们可以看到前面的道路,”麦考密克说。

奥兹在几分钟后出现,首先感谢川普的支持,然后感谢福克斯新闻频道主持人肖恩·哈尼蒂的“幕后”建议。

“今晚我们不会有结果。当所有的选票统计完毕后,我相信我们会赢,”奥兹说。

无论谁赢得共和党初选,都将面对费瑟曼,他在竞选中有着明显的蓝领倾向和普通人的形象——高个子,秃顶,有纹身,更多时候穿着衬衫和短裤,而不是西装。他在民主党竞选中大幅战胜了更温和的众议员康纳·兰姆,尽管他在初选当天接受了手术在他上周五中风后,我给他安装了带除颤器的起搏器。他的竞选团队周二表示,手术很成功,他正在医院康复。

特朗普在民主党的协助下,将马斯特里亚诺推向胜利

在特朗普插话并支持道格·马斯特里亚诺(Doug Mastriano)之后,宾夕法尼亚州共和党州长初选在选举的最后几天发生了戏剧性的变化,道格·马斯特里亚诺因试图推翻该州2020年总统选举结果而获得了保守派基层的支持。马斯特里亚诺的胜利引发了人们对该州未来选举诚信的担忧,因为宾夕法尼亚州州长任命国务卿,即负责监督选举的首席官员。

这位州参议员和退休陆军上校组织了公共汽车参加1月6日的“停止偷窃”集会,并在当天晚些时候骚乱发生前走过国会大厦的路障。鉴于他与特朗普保持联系,众议院1月6日的委员会已经传唤了他,但他和委员会都没有确认他是否遵守了命令。他否认参与过任何暴力活动。

建制派共和党人担心马斯特里亚诺获得提名,因为他对2020年大选的毫无根据的说法可能会影响到更广泛的选民。两位参加州长竞选的共和党候选人梅丽莎·哈特和杰克·科尔曼退出了竞选在最后一段为了巩固众议员Lou Barletta而不是Mastriano的选票。

然而,民主党人希望马斯特里亚诺获胜,认为他在11月更容易被击败。

PHOTO: Candidate for Pennsylvania Governor Doug Mastriano speaks to his supporters in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., May 13, 2022.

LightRocket via Getty Images,文件

宾夕法尼亚州州长候选人道格·马斯特里亚诺在威尔克斯对他的支持者讲话...

宾夕法尼亚州司法部长乔希·夏皮罗(Josh Shapiro)在民主党提名中没有竞争对手,他称马斯特里亚诺是特朗普的选择,这样他就可以从共和党人群中脱颖而出。但是共和党政治战略家阿曼达·卡彭特谴责马斯特里亚诺是圆柱对于网站The Bulwark,他还表示,他的胜利应该为民主党人提供一个教训,特别是那些出于类似原因希望特朗普在2016年总统大选中面对希拉里·克林顿的人。

“希望民主党能解决共和党的问题是一个严重的错误。国家很少会有第二次机会,”她写道。"但是如果共和党现在支持像马斯特里亚诺这样的起义者,那就永远是1月6日了."

What's next for McCormick-Oz squeaker -- and the possible electoral turbulence of Mastriano as governor

Many across the country -- and certainly former President Donald Trump -- are watchingPennsylvania.

Ballots are still being counted in the GOP Senate primary race, whererazor-thin margins separatehedge fund manager David McCormick and celebrity TV Dr. Mehmet Oz. Meanwhile, a late Trump endorsement in the Republican gubernatorial primary helped boost election denier and state Sen. Doug Mastriano to a win. Both races offer insight -- and raise tough questions -- about the conservative electorate in the Keystone State.

As of Wednesday afternoon, with98% of votes counted, both McCormick and Oz had roughly 31% -- separated by just about 2,000 votes. Pennsylvania law triggers a recount if a candidate's margin of victory is 0.5% or less, as seems all but certain.

Here's what happening in Senate contest and what to know about the gubernatorial win.

What's next for Oz and McCormick?

Only about 2% of ballots in the GOP Senate primaryremain to be counted. But in a squeaker like this, those 2% are key.

Many counties in Pennsylvania don't start counting mail-in ballots until Election Day, so there are still enough outstanding votes across the state's 67 counties to be tabulated and counted that a result cannot yet be projected.

Raising another issue, in Lancaster County, "about 22,000 mail ballots were printed by the print vendor with the incorrect code and could not be read by the county's scanners," the secretary of state's office told ABC News on Tuesday night. County election officials were in the process of re-marking and scanning the ballots by hand, which will likely take a few days.

If the margin demands a recount when all votes are in, the secretary of state will initiate that process.

Trump, taking a page out of his own playbook and refusing to wait for every vote to be counted, on Wednesday publicly urged Oz to "declare victory." Trump continued to sow doubt in the election results to come, using his social media app, Truth Social, to again attack mail-in ballots.

Republicans have been reluctant to rely on that voting method in the last two years -- repeatedly criticizing andundercutting an optionthat millions of Americans relied on at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite any evidence of widespread fraud. But a key race still counting them is forcing patience within the party.

The combination of mail-in ballots trailing in and printing errors is, in part, what's causing the delayed result on theMcCormick-Oz contest. But another factor was the ascendance of far-right conservative commentator Kathy Barnette -- over Trump's objections.

Barnette -- who was at Trump's rally on Jan. 6, 2021, andwas seen walking with others to the U.S. Capitolbefore the deadly rioting (in which she has denied participating) -- saw a surge in support in the last few weeks and appeared to split votes among Trump's base and away from Oz and McCormick. As of Wednesday afternoon, she had about 25% of the votes compared to the others' 31% each, highlighting how unusually fractured GOP primary voters were.

In the days leading up to the primary, Trump came after Barnette, saying that she would not be able to win the general election against the Democratic nominee (who ended up being Lt. Gov. John Fetterman). He also swiped at her background, saying that "she has many things in her past which have not been properly explained or vetted." Barnette toldNBC NewsTrump had to say that because "he's going to stick with that endorsement."

But during Trump's rally in Pennsylvania earlier this month, intended to bolster Oz, voters on the ground expressed skepticism, citing Oz's changing stances on COVID vaccines, abortion access and the Second Amendment. Instead, many told ABC News, they would prefer Barnette, calling her a true conservative.

"MAGA ["Make America Great Again"] does not belong to President Trump," Barnette said at a debate last month. "MAGA -- although he coined the word -- MAGA is actually, it belongs to the people."

Without Barnette's success, it's likely that either McCormick or Oz would have more decisively won the race, avoiding the potential for a recall while Republicans would prefer to be able to turn toward theupcoming general against Fetterman.

The Senate seat that Oz and McCormick are vying for is currently held by retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. It would be a significant loss to the GOP -- and a critical gain for Democrats who hope to maintain their slim control in the 50-50 Senate.

Trumpannounced his endorsementof Oz in April, citing the latter's popularity and past compliments on Trump's health. He argued that Oz would be the one most likely able to win in November's midterms. But McCormick, the hedge fund owner from Connecticut endorsed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, and whose wife worked in the Trump administration, drew many votes even without Trump's coveted support.

In a call with ABC News on Tuesday, McCormick struck a delicate balance of complimenting Trump while arguing his endorsement didn't matter in the race.

Both McCormick and Oz spoke at their respective election night parties and acknowledged that their race was too close to call.

"We're not going to have resolution tonight, but we can see the path ahead," McCormick said.

Oz, appearing minutes after, first thanked Trump for his endorsement and then Fox News host Sean Hannity for his "behind-the-scenes" advice.

"We're not going to have a result tonight. When all the votes are tallied, I am confident we will win," Oz said.

Whoever wins the Republican primary will face Fetterman, who has campaigned with a distinctly blue-collar bent and an everyman affect -- tall, bald and tattooed, more often in a shirt and shorts than a suit. He soared to a wide victory in the Democratic race over the more moderate Rep. Conor Lamb, even as heunderwent surgery on primary dayto get a pacemaker with defibrillator after he suffered a stroke last Friday. His campaign said Tuesday that the procedure was successful and he was recovering in the hospital.

Trump vaults Mastriano to victory, with a Democratic assist

Pennsylvania's Republican gubernatorial primary shifted dramatically in the final days of the election after Trump interjected and endorsed Doug Mastriano, who had attracted conservative grassroots support for his efforts to try to overturn the state's 2020 presidential result. Mastriano's win has raised concerns about the state's future election integrity, since Pennsylvania's governor appoints the secretary of state, the chief officer in charge with overseeing elections.

The state senator and retired Army colonel organized buses to the "Stop the Steal" rally on Jan. 6 and was seen on camera walking past barricades at the Capitol ahead of the rioting later that day. The House's Jan. 6 committee has subpoenaed him, given that he was in communication with Trump, but neither he nor the committee has confirmed whether he complied with the order. He has denied participating in any violence.

Establishment Republicans worried about Mastriano getting the nomination, given how his baseless claims about the 2020 election might play with the wider electorate. Two GOP candidates in the governor's race, Melissa Hart and Jake Corman, dropped outin the last stretchin an effort to consolidate votes around Rep. Lou Barletta instead of Mastriano.

Democrats, however, hoped for Mastriano's win, believing him easier to beat in November.

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination, branded Mastriano as Trump's pick so that he could stand out from the GOP crowd. But Republican political strategist Amanda Carpenter, who condemned Mastriano as "an insurrectionist" in acolumnfor the website The Bulwark, also said his win should provide a lesson to Democrats, especially those who wanted Trump to face Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election for similar reasons.

"Hoping that Democrats will solve the problems of the Republican party has been a grave mistake. It's not often countries get second chances," she wrote. "But if the GOP now gets behind insurrectionists like Mastriano, it's January 6th forever."

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