在美国新冠肺炎感染的最新复苏中,疾病预防控制中心使用的新预测模型显示,美国每日住院人数和新的病毒相关死亡人数预计将在未来四周内继续增加。
这一预测是在越来越多的新冠肺炎阳性患者根据疾病控制和预防中心的数据,每天都有很多人进入医院并需要护理。
数据显示,目前美国有超过2万名病毒阳性的美国人正在接受治疗,这是自3月中旬以来住院患者总数最高的一次。平均而言,每天有超过2500名病毒阳性的美国人进入医院——这一总数在上周增加了18.1%。这也标志着近两个月来最高的患者入院人数。
然而,总数仍然明显低于疫情其他地区,当时1月份有超过16万名患者因该病毒住院。
杰奎琳·马丁/美联社
安东尼·福奇博士,美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长...
该预测还预测,在未来两周内,将有大约5400人死亡。加利福尼亚、纽约和佛罗里达预计在未来几周内死亡人数最多。
本周美国广播公司新闻分析比例越来越大新冠肺炎的死亡发生在接种疫苗的人群中。2021年8月,约18.9%的新冠肺炎死亡发生在接种疫苗的人群中。六个月后,也就是2022年2月,这一比例上升至40%以上。
相比之下,在2021年9月,只有1.1%的新冠肺炎死亡发生在已经完全接种疫苗并加强了第一剂疫苗的美国人中。到2022年2月,这一死亡比例已上升至25%左右。
卫生专家表示,疫苗和加强剂继续为严重疾病提供重要保护。然而,免疫力下降再次强调了给美国老年人和高危人群增加剂量的紧迫性。
在周二接受哥伦比亚广播公司采访时,安东尼·福奇博士承认,因新冠肺炎病毒而死亡的接种疫苗的人数有所增加,其中许多人是老年人,免疫功能低下或有潜在疾病。
“只要人群中有脆弱人群,即使未接种疫苗的人风险更大,即使接种了基础疾病疫苗和对严重疾病的高度易感性也会导致这些死亡,”他说。
福奇说,另一组美国人仍然没有接种疫苗,他们正变得严重患病并濒临死亡。他强调,很大一部分人——大约三分之一的美国人——没有完全接种疫苗,而大约一半符合条件的美国人仍然没有接种第一剂疫苗。
福奇说,为了使美国进入流行阶段,该病毒在全国的流行率必须下降。
福奇解释说:“我们希望的是,当水平下降时,它保持在一个控制良好的水平,那些已经接种疫苗和加强疫苗的人即使可能被感染,他们也不会患上严重的疾病,从而导致住院治疗,并在许多情况下导致个人死亡。”。
COVID-19 hospital admissions, deaths expected to keep climbing in the US amid resurgence
Amidst the nation's latest resurgence in COVID-19 infections, new forecast models used by the CDC show that daily hospital admission levels and new virus-related deaths in the U.S. are projected to continue increasing over the next four weeks.
The forecast comes as a growing number ofCOVID-19 positive patientsare entering hospitals and requiring care each day, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
There are now more than 20,000 virus-positive Americans currently receiving care in the U.S., the data shows — the highest total number of patients hospitalized since mid-March. On average, more than 2,500 virus-positive Americans are entering the hospital each day -- a total that has increased by 18.1% in the last week. This also marks the highest number of patients entering the hospital in nearly two months.
However, totals remain significantly lower than during other parts of the pandemic when there were more than 160,000 patients hospitalized with the virus in January.
The forecast also predicts that about 5,400 deaths will occur over the next two weeks. California, New York and Florida are projected to see the largest death tolls in the weeks to come.
A new ABC News analysis this weekshowed a growing proportionof COVID-19 deaths are occurring among the vaccinated. In August 2021, about 18.9% of COVID-19 deaths were occurring among the vaccinated. Six months later, in February 2022, that percent of deaths had increased to more than 40%.
Comparatively, in September 2021, just 1.1% of COVID-19 deaths were occurring among Americans who had been fully vaccinated and boosted with their first dose. By February 2022, that percent of deaths had increased to about 25%.
Health experts said vaccines and boosters continue to provide significant protection against severe disease. However, waning immunity re-emphasizes the urgency of boosting older Americans and high-risk Americans with additional doses.
During an interview with CBS News on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci acknowledged there has been an increase in the number of vaccinated people who are dying of COVID-19, many of whom are elderly, immunocompromised or have underlying conditions.
"As long as you have vulnerable people in the population, even though the unvaccinated are going to be much more at risk, even vaccinated with underlying conditions and a high degree of susceptibility to severe disease will account for those deaths," he said.
The other group of Americans, who are becoming severely ill and dying, is still the unvaccinated, Fauci said. He stressed that a large proportion — about a third of Americans — have not been fully vaccinated, while about half of eligible Americans are still unboosted with their first dose.
Fauci said that in order for the U.S. to move into an endemic phase, the prevalence of the virus across the country has to come down.
"What we're hoping for is that when the level comes down, it stays in a well-controlled level, and those people who've been vaccinated and boosted even though they might get infected, they won't get a severe disease that would lead to hospitalization, and tragically in many cases, to deaths of individuals," Fauci explained.