洛杉矶-美国许多地方的民主党人正面临着一个潜在的严峻的政治年，但在加利福尼亚州，没有人谈论自由派大本营改变方向。
加州在很大程度上无关紧要的共和党只能推出鲜为人知的州长和美国参议院候选人，即使在对共和党有利的条件下，共和党似乎也只有孤立的翻盘机会聚会。
6月7日初选的邮寄选票已经发出选举这将为11月的决选做好准备。这选举这是在一个充满危险的政治问题的大锅里发生的:最高法院1973年罗伊诉韦德案(Roe v. Wade)的判决可能被废除，该判决使堕胎合法化，人们对无家可归危机普遍感到沮丧，居民因飙升的通货膨胀和飙升的住房成本而承受钱包压力——该州的中位数价格在3月份达到了创纪录的849，080美元。
乔·拜登总统的受欢迎程度已经下降——甚至在他的一些民主党同僚中——白宫的政党通常会在中期选举中失去国会席位。加州民主党人在2020年以历史性的数字出现，以压倒性优势击败了时任总统唐纳德·川普，但下个月的投票率预计将下降，选票上没有什么戏剧性的变化:州长加文·纽瑟姆和美国参议员亚历克斯·帕迪拉(Alex Padilla)都是民主党人，只面临象征性的反对。
但是这些都不会对该州的民主优势构成威胁。自2006年以来，共和党人还没有赢得过加州的全州选举，全州范围内民主党选民的数量几乎是共和党的两倍。预计民主党将保持他们在立法机构中的绝对优势。
共和党在2020年获得了4个美国众议院席位，但民主党人仍在国会代表团中占据主导地位，占据了53个众议院席位中的10个，只有一个空缺。
在上个月的一次州共和党大会上，贝克斯菲尔德的众议院共和党领袖凯文·麦卡锡说，他将在1月份主持众议院的议事槌，而不是旧金山的议长南希·佩洛西。他预测，加州更多的众议院动荡将打破众议院的权力平衡，但共和党面临着艰难的竞争，以保持其立场。
最近的历史对共和党来说并不令人鼓舞。去年，纽瑟姆看起来很脆弱，但随后轻松击败了由批评他处理疫情的人推动的召回努力。
“我们没有真正的州长竞选。我们没有真正的参议员竞选，”克莱蒙特·麦肯纳学院政治学家杰克·皮特尼说，他引用不平衡的罢免选举作为共和党前景黯淡的证据，即使民主党在全国范围内处于守势。
“这里的问题是共和党的板凳很薄，”皮特尼补充说。"加州真的没有任何一个共和党人拥有全州的知名度。"
今年该州最受关注的竞选不涉及共和党挑战者。在旧金山和洛杉矶，地方检察官因改革而受到指责，有人说改革助长了犯罪率的上升。旧金山Chesa Boudin的召回将于下个月进行投票。洛杉矶县仍在收集罢免所需的请愿书签名，乔治·加森可能会在今年晚些时候被迫捍卫自己的席位。
洛杉矶还将从包括民主党众议员凯伦·巴斯(Karen Bass)和亿万富翁开发商里克·卡鲁索(Rick Caruso)在内的候选人中选出一名新市长。凯伦·巴斯曾是拜登副总统候选人的短名单上的一员，里克·卡鲁索长期以来一直是共和党人，后来成为无党派人士，在参加市长竞选前不久，注册为民主党人。
可以说，全州范围内最危险的民主党人是司法部长罗布·邦塔(Rob Bonta)，他是一位具有改革思想的纽森任命的人，正面临两名共和党人和一名独立候选人——萨克拉门托县地区检察官安妮·玛丽·舒伯特(Anne Marie Schubert)——的挑战，他们指责他的犯罪激增。舒伯特最近离开了共和党，他赌选票上不同的身份会吸引更多的选票。
共和党的一个有希望的新面孔是州审计长候选人陈兰希，他是台湾移民的儿子，拥有多个哈佛大学学位，曾在乔治·w·布什总统的政府中任职，并赢得了左倾的《洛杉矶时报》编辑部的支持。
在国会竞选中，共和党众议员迈克·加西亚在洛杉矶北部倾向民主党的选区捍卫自己的席位。民主党众议员凯蒂·波特(Katie Porter)是该党进步派的明星，正在奥兰治县一个分裂严重的沿海地区寻求连任。在附近，共和党众议员米歇尔·斯蒂尔(Michelle Steel)是一名韩国移民，她希望在一个民主党略有优势的地区赢得第二个任期，该地区包括美国最大的越南裔美国人社区。
在美国最高法院一份可能推翻具有里程碑意义的堕胎决定的意见草案泄露后，对民主党全国灾难性一年的预测正在接受重新评估。
纽瑟姆称之为选举中的“决定性问题”，并支持11月投票的提案，将堕胎权纳入州宪法，民主党人希望此举能吸引更多选民投票。堕胎是否会在选民中压倒经济问题和公共安全，还有待观察。
该案的最终裁决预计要到今年6月最高法院任期结束后才能做出。如果罗伊案被推翻，后果很可能集中在倾向保守或摇摆不定的州，这些州可能会严格限制或禁止堕胎。加州正在寻求扩大这些权利——纽瑟姆希望该州成为那些寻求堕胎的人的“避难所”,立法机构的法案中有一项是为来自其他州的孕妇支付费用。
特朗普的影响力已经在俄亥俄州和佐治亚州形成了竞争，但他在加利福尼亚州的存在基本上是外围的。然而，在一些势均力敌的竞选中，对他的支持将是一个问题，尤其是国会之争。
加州共和党人面临的问题是，是否有足够多的选民对不断上升的犯罪、无家可归和经济感到失望，将他们的不满发泄在民主党人身上。
共和党顾问马特·雷克斯路(Matt Rexroad)说，“如果共和党人有机会在全州范围内进行合法竞选，那就是今年了。”他正在为共和党人内森·霍奇曼(Nathan Hochman)提供咨询。霍奇曼是前联邦检察官，也是竞选司法部长的五名候选人之一。
California Democratic supremacy tested by crime, inflation
LOS ANGELES -- Democrats in many parts of the country are facing a potentially grim political year, but in California no one is talking about the liberal stronghold changing direction.
California's largely irrelevant Republican Party could field only little-known candidates for governor and U.S. Senate, and the GOP appears to have only isolated chances for upsets even under what should be favorable conditions for theparty.
Mail ballots are already going out for the June 7 primaryelectionthat will set the stage for November runoffs. Theelectionis taking place within a cauldron of dicey political issues: the possible repeal of the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion, widespread frustration with a homelessness crisis and with residents suffering pocketbook stress from galloping inflation and soaring home costs — the state’s median price hit a record $849,080 in March.
President Joe Biden's popularity has sagged — even among some of his fellow Democrats — and the party in the White House typically loses congressional seats in midterm elections. California Democrats showed up in historic numbers in 2020 to defeat then-President Donald Trump in landslide, but turnout next month is expected to tumble with little drama at the top of the ticket: Gov. Gavin Newsom and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, both Democrats, face only token opposition.
But none of that adds up to a threat to the state's Democratic supremacy. Republicans haven't won a statewide election in California since 2006, and Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1 statewide. Democrats are expected to maintain their supermajorities in the Legislature.
The GOP picked up four U.S. House seats in 2020 but Democrats still dominate the congressional delegation, holding all but 10 of the 53 House seats, with one vacancy.
At a state Republican Party convention last month, House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield said he’d be holding the chamber’s gavel in January, not Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco. He predicted more House upsets in California would tip the balance of power in the chamber, but the GOP faces tough races to hold its ground.
Recent history isn’t encouraging for the GOP. Last year, Newsom appeared vulnerable but then easily defeated a recall effort driven by critics of his handling of the pandemic.
“We don't have a real race for governor. We don't have a real race for senator,” said Claremont McKenna College political scientist Jack Pitney, who cited the lopsided recall election as evidence of faded GOP prospects, even as Democrats are on the defensive nationally.
"The problem here is the Republican bench is very thin," Pitney added. “There really aren't any Republicans in California who have a statewide profile.”
The most closely watched races in the state this year don't involve Republican challengers. In San Francisco and Los Angeles, local district attorneys are being blamed for reforms that some say fueled rising crime. The recall of San Francisco's Chesa Boudin is on the ballot next month. Petition signatures needed to qualify a recall are still being gathered in Los Angeles County, where George Gascón could be forced to defend his seat later this year.
Los Angeles also will elect a new mayor from candidates including Democratic Rep. Karen Bass, who was on Biden’s short list of vice presidential picks, and billionaire developer Rick Caruso a longtime Republican who became an independent and then, shortly before entering the race for mayor, registered as a Democrat.
Arguably the most endangered Democrat on the statewide ticket is Attorney General Rob Bonta, a reform-minded Newsom appointee who is facing challenges from two Republicans and an independent candidate — Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert — who fault him for spikes in crime. Schubert recently left the GOP and is gambling that a different identification on the ballot will draw more votes.
A promising new face for Republicans is state controller candidate Lanhee Chen, the son of immigrants from Taiwan, who holds multiple Harvard University degrees, served in President George W. Bush’s administration and won the support of the left-leaning Los Angeles Times editorial board.
Among the top congressional races, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia is defending his seat north of Los Angeles in a Democratic-leaning district. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a star of the party’s progressive wing, is looking for another term in a closely divided coastal district in Orange County. And nearby, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, a Korean immigrant, is looking to win a second term in a district with a slight Democratic edge that includes the nation’s largest Vietnamese American community.
Predictions for a disastrous year for Democrats nationally are undergoing reevaluation after the leak of a draft U.S. Supreme Court opinion that would overturn the landmark abortion decision.
Newsom has called it the “defining issue” in the election and is backing a proposal for the November ballot to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, a move Democrats hope would lure more voters at the polls. It remains to be seen if abortion could trump economic issues and public safety among voters.
A final ruling in the case is not expected until the end of the court’s term in June. If Roe is overturned, the fallout is likely to be concentrated in conservative-leaning or swing states that could see abortion heavily restricted or banned. California is seeking to expand those rights — Newsom wants the state to be a “refuge” for those seeking abortion and among the bills in the Legislature is one that would pay the costs for pregnant women to come from out of state.
The influence of Trump has framed contests in Ohio and Georgia but his presence is mostly peripheral in California. However, support for him will be an issue in some close races, particularly congressional fights.
At issue for California Republicans is whether enough voters frustrated with rising crime, homelessness and the economy, will take out their grievances on Democrats.
“If there was going to be a time for a Republican to take a legitimate shot at a statewide candidacy, this is the year to do it,” said Matt Rexroad, a GOP consultant who is advising Republican Nathan Hochman, a former federal prosecutor and one of five candidates running for attorney general.
