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俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中遭受了“非同寻常”的将军损失

2022-05-09 11:12  ABC   - 

专家表示,在乌克兰战争期间,俄罗斯最高军事领导层被证明特别脆弱。

乌克兰国防部声称,自2月下旬入侵开始以来,已有12名俄罗斯将军丧生。

俄罗斯官员没有证实这个数字。美国官员——上周谁被推后《纽约时报》的一篇报道称,美国向乌克兰提供情报,帮助其锁定并杀死俄罗斯将军和其他高级官员,但该报道也没有证实俄罗斯将军的死亡人数。

不过,正如乌克兰所报道的那样,这种损失“相当惊人”,美国广播公司新闻撰稿人、退休上校史蒂夫·甘亚德说。

“也许你必须回到第二次世界大战,才有那种比例的高级军官在前线被杀,”甘亚德说。

对部队缺乏信心

Ganyard说,如此高的伤亡人数表明了几件事,其中之一是俄罗斯军事领导人对他们的部队缺乏信心。

“这表明将军们需要在前线,以确保他们的部队以他们想要的方式执行作战计划,”他说。“但这也表明,如果他们需要与这么多高级官员一起走那么远,他们对自己的部队缺乏信心。”

甘雅德说,这表明俄罗斯对这场战役的认真态度,但也“表明俄罗斯军队已经变得多么虚弱,因为他们需要如此多的高级领导层”。

专家说,由于俄罗斯军队的结构,俄罗斯的将军们也可能特别容易受到攻击。

美国广播公司新闻撰稿人、前负责中东事务的副助理国防部长米克·马尔罗伊(Mick Mulroy)说,与美国军方不同,俄罗斯没有授权其军士和下级军官自行决策。

“他们不授权。所以,他们出去直接给他们的部队下命令,”马尔罗伊说。"缺乏授权是俄罗斯军队表现如此糟糕的另一个原因."

Ganyard说,俄罗斯军队士气低落也可能使乌克兰在战争中占据优势,尽管乌克兰人在数量上落后于敌军和军事装备。

“一旦沟通中断……俄罗斯军队中的年轻人不知道该做什么,他们知道他们只是被告知要做一些事情,特别是当他们的心不在战斗中时,”他说。“这是乌克兰迄今为止在战场上证明具有决定性的优势。”

脆弱的指挥和控制能力

Ganyard说,俄罗斯军队在乌克兰地面上也很容易受到电子窃听。

“俄罗斯军队在这场战争中的许多失败之一是,它表明他们在指挥和控制能力上的投入是多么少,”他说。“俄罗斯人甚至没有使用加密技术,所以这意味着任何人——如果他们找到了频率——都能够监听。”

Ganyard说,有“非常可信的报告”称,俄罗斯军队甚至没收了乌克兰公民的手机,并将其用于指挥和控制行动。

“所以很明显,乌克兰人可以窃听他们自己的电话线路,如果他们能找出是谁干的,”他说。

Ganyard说,俄罗斯士兵也通过社交媒体帖子的地理定位被实时跟踪。

“现代时代带来了很多好处,但就军事而言,它实际上变得很危险,因为人们运行的大多数应用程序都没有加密,它们传递的是人们所在位置的实时数据,”他说。

追踪俄罗斯军队可能会将乌克兰军队引向指挥所——很可能还有最高军事领导层。

“如果你炮击并摧毁了一个指挥所,你可能会干掉相当多的高级领导,”甘亚德说。

在俄罗斯军方领导层损失的说法中,尚不清楚乌克兰军方同样遭受了什么。

“乌克兰人非常擅长控制社交媒体和一般媒体上的叙事,”甘亚德说。“我们得到的非正式报道称,乌克兰人也在付出代价。”

他补充说,由于军队规模较小,乌克兰人“可以付出比俄罗斯人更低的代价”。

“乌克兰人受到了伤害,”甘亚德说。“这并不是乌克兰人没有遭受任何损失,而俄罗斯人却遭受了任何损失。”
 

Why Russia has suffered the loss of an 'extraordinary' number of generals

During its war in Ukraine, Russia's top military leadership has proven to be particularly vulnerable, experts say.

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense has claimed that 12 Russian generals have been killed since the invasion began in late February.

Russian officials have not confirmed that number. U.S. officials -- who last weekpushed backon a New York Times report that said the U.S. provided Ukraine intelligence that helped it target and kill Russian generals and other senior officers -- also have not confirmed the number of Russian generals killed.

Though, as reported by Ukraine, that kind of loss is "quite extraordinary," ABC News contributor and retired Col. Steve Ganyard said.

"Maybe you'd have to go back to World War II to have that sort of proportion of senior officers being killed on the front lines," Ganyard said.

Lack of confidence in troops

Such a high number of casualties at that level suggests several things -- one being a lack of confidence among Russian military leaders in their troops, according to Ganyard.

"It suggests that the generals need to be at the front lines to ensure that their troops are conducting the battle plan in the way that they want," he said. "But that also suggests a lack of confidence in their troops if they need to be that far forward with that many senior folks."

That demonstrates Russia's seriousness about its campaign but is also "an indication of how weak the Russian military has turned out to be in that they need that much senior leadership that far forward," Ganyard said.

Russian generals also may be especially vulnerable due to the structure of Russia's military, experts say.

Unlike the U.S. military, Russia does not empower its non-commissioned and junior officers with the authority to make decisions on their own, said Mick Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and an ABC News contributor.

"They do not delegate authority. So, they are out giving orders directly to their forces," Mulroy said. "The lack of delegation is another reason the Russian military is performing so poorly."

Poor morale among Russian troops may also be giving Ukraine an advantage in the war, despite Ukrainians being outnumbered by enemy troops and military equipment, Ganyard said.

"As soon as communication breaks down … the young folks in the Russian military don't know what to do and they know that they're just being told to do something, particularly when it's a fight where their heart isn't in it," he said. "That is an advantage that Ukraine has proven to be decisive on the battlefield thus far."

Vulnerable command and control capabilities

Russian troops have also been shown to be vulnerable to electronic eavesdropping while on the ground in Ukraine, Ganyard said.

"One of the many failures of the Russian military in this war is that it has shown how little they have invested in command and control capabilities," he said. "The Russians aren't even using encryption, so it means that anybody -- if they find the frequency -- are able to listen in."

There are "very credible reports" of Russian troops even confiscating phones from Ukrainian citizens and using those for command and control operations, Ganyard said.

"So obviously, the Ukrainians can tap into their own phone lines if they can figure out who's doing it," he said.

Russian soldiers have also been tracked in real-time through geolocation of social media posts, Ganyard said.

"The modern age has introduced lots of benefits, but in the case of the military, it actually becomes dangerous because most of the apps that people are running are not encrypted and they're passing real-time data of where people are," he said.

Tracking Russian troops could lead Ukrainian forces to command posts -- and likely top military leadership.

"If you shell and you take out a command post, you're probably going to take out quite a bit of senior leadership," Ganyard said.

Amid the claims of Russia's military leadership losses, it is unclear what the Ukrainian military has similarly suffered.

"The Ukrainians have been very good at controlling the narrative on social media and on media in general," Ganyard said. "We're getting anecdotal reporting back-channel that the Ukrainians are paying a price, too."

And with a smaller military, the Ukrainians "can pay a price less than the Russians can," he added.

"The Ukrainians are hurting," Ganyard said. "This is not something where the Ukrainians are not taking any losses, while the Russians are."

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