华盛顿——美联储周三将基准利率上调0.5个百分点，这是自2000年以来最激进的举措，并预示着未来将进一步大幅加息，从而加大了对抗40年来最严重通胀的力度。

美联储将关键短期利率上调至0.75%至1%的区间，这是自两年前疫情来袭以来的最高点。

美联储还宣布，将开始缩减其庞大的9万亿美元资产负债表，主要由国债和抵押贷款债券组成。减持这些资产将会进一步提高整个经济体的借贷成本。

在美联储最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)采取了不同寻常的步骤，表示美联储官员理解高通胀给普通美国人带来的金融痛苦。但鲍威尔强调，美联储正为此大幅加息——以遏制高通胀，维持经济健康，缓解数百万家庭面临的压力。

“通货膨胀率太高了，”他说，“我们理解它造成的困难。”

随着食品、能源和消费品价格加速上涨，美联储的目标是通过提高个人和企业的借贷成本来冷却支出和经济增长。中央银行希望抵押贷款、信用卡和汽车贷款的高成本将减缓消费，足以抑制通货膨胀，但不会导致经济衰退。

这将是一个微妙的平衡动作。美联储受到了广泛的批评，认为它开始收紧信贷的速度太慢，许多经济学家怀疑它能否避免引发衰退。

鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，他相信美国经济有足够的弹性来承受更高的借款利率。职位空缺创历史新高。平均每个失业者有两个工作机会。工资正以前所未有的速度增长，企业也在继续投资设备和软件。

“我看到了强劲的经济，”他说。"没有任何迹象表明它接近或易受衰退影响."

鲍威尔还明确表示，进一步大幅加息即将到来。他表示，在6月和7月的“接下来的几次会议上”，美联储将关键利率进一步上调0.5个百分点“应该会被提上日程”。

但他也试图淡化美联储可能考虑加息0.75个百分点的任何猜测。

“加息(0.75个百分点)不是委员会正在积极考虑的事情，”他说——这一言论导致股指飙升。在他发表讲话之前，道琼斯工业平均指数仅小幅上涨。截至收盘，道琼斯指数飙升930点，涨幅2.8%，为2020年5月以来的最佳单日涨幅。

央行决策者在声明中指出，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰抬高了石油和食品价格，加剧了通胀压力。它补充说，“中国与COVID相关的封锁可能会加剧供应链中断”，这可能会进一步推高价格。

根据美联储的首选指标，上个月通胀率达到6.6%，为40年来最高。强劲的消费支出、长期的供应瓶颈以及大幅上涨的天然气和食品价格，共同加速了这一过程。

从6月1日开始，美联储表示，将允许至多480亿美元的债券到期，三个月内不进行替换，然后到9月份转移到950亿美元。按照9月份的速度，其资产负债表将每年缩减约1万亿美元。疫情经济衰退爆发后，美联储购买了数万亿美元债券，试图压低长期借款利率，资产负债表规模扩大了一倍多。

鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，美联储希望“迅速”将关键利率提高到既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的水平，美联储表示这一水平约为2.4%。央行的政策制定者已经暗示，他们将在年底达到这一点。

鲍威尔表示，一旦利率达到这一水平，“如果我们确实认为进一步提高短期利率是合适的”，那么“我们将不会犹豫。”

经济学家警告说，一些助长通胀的因素——特别是供应和工人短缺——超出了美联储的解决能力。

“美联储无法用更高的利率来解决供应方面的挑战，”普朗泰·莫兰金融顾问公司的首席投资官吉姆·贝尔德说美联储的紧缩政策不会重新开放中国工厂，不会增加来自乌克兰的谷物运输，不会将集装箱船重新定位到需要它们的地方，也不会雇佣卡车司机来运输货物。''

然而，鲍威尔说，他认为美联储可以冷却激增的需求，从而帮助减缓通货膨胀。

美联储的信贷紧缩已经对经济产生了一些影响。2月至3月，成屋销售下降2.7%，反映出抵押贷款利率飙升，这在一定程度上与美联储计划加息有关。自今年年初以来，30年期抵押贷款的平均利率已经上升了2个百分点，达到5.1%。

鲍威尔指出，就业机会的广泛存在证明劳动力市场紧张到了“不健康的水平”，这加剧了通货膨胀。这位美联储主席押注于更高的利率可以减少这些空缺，这可能会减缓工资增长并缓解通胀压力，而不会引发大规模裁员。

目前，随着招聘的强劲——经济已经连续11个月增加了至少40万个工作岗位——以及雇主努力应对劳动力短缺，工资正以每年约5%的速度增长。尽管物价飞涨，这些加薪仍在推动稳定的消费支出。3月份，即使经通胀调整后，消费者的支出也增长了0.2%。

金融市场预计，到2023年年中，美联储利率将高达3.6%，这将是15年来的最高水平。缩减美联储的资产负债表将增加另一层不确定性，即美联储的行动会在多大程度上削弱经济。

全球经济增长放缓让美联储的任务变得更加复杂。中国对新冠肺炎的封锁可能会导致世界第二大经济体陷入衰退。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，欧盟正面临能源价格上涨和供应链中断。

此外，全球其他央行也在加息，这一趋势可能会进一步危及全球经济增长。周四，英国央行预计将连续第四次上调关键利率。澳大利亚储备银行周二11年来首次提高了利率。

经济学家预计，正在努力应对比美国或英国更慢增长的欧洲央行可能会在7月加息。

Fed raises key rate by a half-point in bid to tame inflation

WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve intensified its fight against the worst inflation in 40 years by raising its benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point Wednesday — its most aggressive move since 2000 — and signaling further large rate hikes to come.

The increase in the Fed’s key short-term rate raised it to a range of 0.75% to 1%, the highest point since the pandemic struck two years ago.

The Fed also announced that it will start reducing its huge $9 trillion balance sheet, made up mainly of Treasury and mortgage bonds. Reducing those holdings will have the effect of further raising borrowing costs throughout the economy.

Speaking at a news conference after the Fed's latest meeting, Chair Jerome Powell took the unusual step of saying the central bank's officials understood the financial pain that high inflation is causing ordinary Americans. But Powell stressed that the Fed is sharply raising rates for that very reason — to rein in high inflation, sustain the economy's health and ease the stress that millions of households are facing.

“Inflation is much too high," he said, “and we understand the hardship it is causing.”

With prices for food, energy and consumer goods accelerating, the Fed’s goal is to cool spending — and economic growth — by making it more expensive for individuals and businesses to borrow. The central bank hopes that higher costs for mortgages, credit cards and auto loans will slow spending enough to tame inflation yet not so much as to cause a recession.

It will be a delicate balancing act. The Fed has endured widespread criticism that it was too slow to start tightening credit, and many economists are skeptical that it can avoid causing a recession.

At his news conference, Powell said he was confident that the economy is resilient enough to withstand higher borrowing rates. Job openings are at a record high. There are two available jobs, on average, for each unemployed person. Wages are rising at a historically rapid pace, and businesses are continuing to invest in equipment and software.

“I see a strong economy," he said. “Nothing about it says it's close to or vulnerable to a recession."

Powell also made clear that further large rate hikes are coming. He said that additional half-point increases in the Fed's key rate “should be on the table in the next couple of meetings” in June and July.

But he also sought to downplay any speculation that the Fed might be considering a rate hike as high as three-quarters of a percentage point.

“A (three-quarters of a point) hike is not something that the committee is actively considering,” he said — a remark that caused stock indexes to jump. Before he spoke, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up only modestly. By the close of trading, the Dow had soared 930 points, or 2.8% — its best single-day gain since May 2020.

In their statement, the central bank's policymakers noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is worsening inflation pressures by raising oil and food prices. It added that “COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions,” which could further boost prices.

Inflation, according to the Fed's preferred gauge, reached 6.6% last month, the highest in four decades. It has been accelerated by a combination of robust consumer spending, chronic supply bottlenecks and sharply higher gas and food prices.

Starting June 1, the Fed said it would allow up to $48 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them for three months, then shift to $95 billion by September. At September's pace, its balance sheet would shrink by about $1 trillion a year. The balance sheet more than doubled after the pandemic recession hit as the Fed bought trillions in bonds to try to hold down long-term borrowing rates.

At the news conference, Powell said the Fed wants to “expeditiously" raise its key rate to a level that neither stimulates nor restrains economic growth, which the Fed has said is about 2.4%. The central bank's policymakers have suggested that they will reach that point by year's end.

Once the rate reaches that level, Powell said that “if we do believe that it's appropriate” to raise their short-term rate further, to a level that would restrict growth, “we won't hesitate.”

Economists warn that some of the factors fueling inflation — notably, shortages of supplies and workers — are outside the Fed's ability to solve.

“The Fed can’t fix supply-side challenges with higher interest rates,’’ said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. "Fed tightening doesn’t re-open Chinese factories, increase grain shipments from Ukraine, re-position container ships to where they are needed or hire truckers to move goods.’’

Powell said, however, that he thinks the Fed can cool booming demand and thereby help slow inflation.

The Fed’s credit tightening is already having some effect on the economy. Sales of existing homes sank 2.7% from February to March, reflecting a surge in mortgage rates related, in part, to the Fed’s planned rate hikes. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has jumped 2 percentage points just since the start of the year, to 5.1%.

Powell has pointed to the widespread availability of jobs as evidence that the labor market is tight “to an unhealthy level” and that fuels inflation. The Fed chair is betting that higher rates can reduce those openings, which would presumably slow wage increases and ease inflationary pressures, without triggering mass layoffs.

For now, with hiring robust — the economy has added at least 400,000 jobs for 11 straight months — and employers grappling with labor shortages, wages are rising at a roughly 5% annual pace. Those pay raises are driving steady consumer spending despite spiking prices. In March, consumers increased their spending 0.2% even after adjusting for inflation.

Financial markets are pricing in a Fed rate as high as 3.6% by mid-2023, which would be the highest in 15 years. Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet will add another layer of uncertainty surrounding how much the Fed’s actions may weaken the economy.

Complicating the Fed’s task is a slowdown in global growth. COVID-19 lockdowns in China are threatening to cause a recession in the world’s second-largest economy. And the European Union is facing higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

What’s more, other central banks around the world are also raising rates, a trend that could further imperil global growth. On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise its key rate for the fourth straight time. The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its rate Tuesday for the first time in 11 years.

And the European Central Bank, which is grappling with slower growth than in the United States or the United Kingdom, may raise rates in July, economists expect.