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到目前为止,俄罗斯的进攻“有限”,马里乌波尔的陷落“并非不可避免

2022-04-20 13:14  ABC   - 

五角大楼每天都在更新美国对以下方面的评估俄罗斯的入侵乌克兰和乌克兰抵抗的努力。

以下是一名美国高级国防官员周二在第55天告诉记者的要点。

到目前为止,俄罗斯在乌克兰东部的进攻行动有限

美国已经看到了“有限”俄罗斯的进攻行动一名美国高级国防官员说,顿涅茨克西南部和伊兹姆南部,但这些被认为是“俄罗斯计划进行的更大规模进攻行动的前奏”。

“这些是真正的地面攻势,当然,它们得到了一些远程火力的支持,主要是火炮,这完全不符合俄罗斯的原则,”这名官员说。

但是,尽管该地区的战斗仍在继续,一场更具毁灭性的攻势仍在酝酿之中。

“你已经看到了(乌克兰)总统泽伦斯基昨天的评论,甚至还有(俄罗斯外长)拉夫罗夫对这一新的进攻开端的评论...我们认为这些...是俄国人计划进行的更大规模进攻行动的前奏。因此,我们并不否认进攻行动已经开始的说法,但我们再次认为,这是更大规模进攻行动的前奏,这些行动可能仍在酝酿之中,”这名官员说。

PHOTO: A Russian military convoy moves on a highway in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces near Mariupol, Ukraine, April 16, 2022.

阿列克谢·亚历山德罗夫/美联社

一个俄罗斯军事车队在一条公路上行驶,该公路位于俄罗斯支持的s。

五角大楼认为,俄罗斯军方正在努力从其在北方作战的错误中吸取教训,在那里受到后勤和供应问题的困扰,在正式开始新的攻势之前,进行官员们所说的“塑造行动”,以在战场上创造有利条件。

“换句话说,继续加强,继续确保他们有后勤和维持到位,继续确保他们有适当的航空和其他使能能力,”该官员说。

该官员称,在过去24小时内,两个俄罗斯营战术小组(BTGs),或多达2000多名战斗部队,已被派往乌克兰。这使得该国境内的btg总数达到约78个,全部位于南部和东部。

据这位官员说,普京最初针对乌克兰部署的总战斗力的大约75%仍然存在。这考虑到了所有的军事能力,包括部队伤亡、被毁车辆和飞机以及耗尽的导弹。这是我们从五角大楼听到的最低评估。

马里乌波尔和顿巴斯的陷落“并非不可避免”

“人们谈论这件事,好像马里乌波尔将会陷落,顿巴斯将不可避免地被俄罗斯人占领。我们不这么看。我们正在尽一切努力确保这不是不可避免的,”这位官员说。

随着战斗集中在顿巴斯周围,乌克兰不得不将来自美国和其他国家的援助运送到全国各地。

这名官员说,“目前,我们从与乌克兰人的讨论中得知,他们正在获得这些物资,这些物资正进入他们的战士手中。”。

但俄罗斯旨在孤立东部的乌克兰势力。

“很明显,俄罗斯人想做的是切断他们,并在顿巴斯打败他们,”这名官员说,并重申失败不是不可避免的。

乌克兰比两周前拥有更多的可用飞机

在周二晚些时候的另一场新闻发布会上,五角大楼发言人约翰·柯比(John Kirby)表示,与两周前相比,乌克兰目前拥有更多可用的军用飞机,因为乌克兰获得了额外的飞机和零部件,可以让受损的飞机重新飞行。

Kirby不愿提供零件和飞机来自哪里的任何细节,但强调它们不是来自美国。

“他们已经收到了额外的飞机和飞机部件,以帮助他们获得更多的飞机,”柯比在五角大楼的镜头简报会上说。

“这不是偶然的,这是因为其他拥有这种飞机经验的国家已经能够帮助他们建造更多的飞机,”柯比说。

“我们当然帮助转运了一些额外的零部件,这些零部件有助于满足他们的飞机需求,但我们没有运输整架飞机,”他说。

俄罗斯导弹袭击

美国估计,自入侵开始以来,俄罗斯已经向乌克兰发射了至少1670枚导弹。这位官员指出,恶劣的天气降低了能见度,使美国更难观察到发射和其他战场行动,因此实际数字可能会更高。

尽管最近在基辅和利沃夫进行了空袭,但俄罗斯的火力集中在马里乌波尔和顿巴斯。

Russian offensive 'limited' so far, fall of Mariupol 'not inevitable': Pentagon update Day 55

The Pentagon has been providing daily updates on the U.S. assessment ofthe Russian invasionof Ukraine and Ukraine's efforts to resist.

Here are highlights of what a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Tuesday on Day 55.

'Limited' Russian offensive operations so far in eastern Ukraine

The U.S. has seen "limited"Russian offensive operationssouthwest of Donetsk and south of Izium, but these are believed to be "preludes to larger offensive operations that the Russians plan to conduct," a senior U.S. defense official said.

"These are actual ground offensives, and they are being supported, of course, by some long-range fires, mostly artillery, which is right out of the Russian doctrine," the official said.

But while there is ongoing fighting in the region, a more devastating offensive is still in the works.

"You've seen comments by [Ukraine's] President Zelenskyy yesterday, and even for [Russian Foreign Minister] Lavrov, about this new offensive beginning ... We think that these ... are preludes to larger offensive operations that the Russians plan to conduct. So, we're not pushing back on the notion that offensive operations have begun, but again, we think that this is a prelude of larger offensive operations that are potentially still in the offing here," the official said.

The Pentagon believes Russia's military is working to learn from its mistakes fighting in the north, where it was plagued with logistical and supply problems, conducting what officials call "shaping operations" to set favorable conditions on the battlefield before beginning its new offensive in earnest.

"In other words, continue to reinforce, continue to make sure they have logistics and sustainment in place, continue to make sure that they have proper aviation and other enabling capability," the official said.

Over the last 24 hours, two Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs), or up to 2,000 more combat troops, have been sent into Ukraine, according to the official. This brings the total to an estimated 78 BTGs inside the country, all in the south and east.

About 75% of Putin's total combat power originally arrayed against Ukraine remains, according to the official. This takes into account all military capabilities, including troop casualties, destroyed vehicles and aircraft, and expended missiles. This is the lowest assessment we've heard out of the Pentagon.

Fall of Mariupol and Donbas 'not inevitable'

"People speak about this as if it's inevitable, that Mariupol is going to fall, that it's inevitable that Donbas will be taken by the Russians. We don't see it that way. And we're doing everything we can to make sure that it's not inevitable," the official said.

With fighting concentrated around Donbas, Ukraine has to move aid coming in from the U.S. and others all the way across the country.

"Right now we know from our discussions with the Ukrainians that they are getting this materiel, it's getting into the hands of their fighters," the official said.

But Russia aims to isolate Ukrainian forces in the east.

"Clearly what the Russians want to do is cut them off and to defeat them in the Donbas," the official said, reiterating that defeat is not inevitable.

Ukraine has more operable planes than 2 weeks ago

At a separate briefing later Tuesday, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Ukraine currently has more operable military planes right now than it did two weeks ago because Ukraine has received additional aircraft as well as parts to get damaged planes flying again.

Kirby was reticent to provide any details on where the parts and planes came from but stressed that they did not come from the U.S.

"They have received additional aircraft and aircraft parts to help them get more aircraft in the air," Kirby said at the on-camera briefing at the Pentagon.

“And that's not by accident, that's because other nations who had experience with those kinds of aircraft have been able to help them get more aircraft up and running,” said Kirby.

"We certainly have helped with the trans-shipment of some additional spare parts that have helped with their aircraft needs, but we have not transported whole aircraft," he said.

Russian missile strikes

The U.S. assesses Russia has fired at least 1,670 missiles against Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion. The official noted that bad weather lowers visibility, making it harder for the U.S. to observe launches and other battlefield actions, so the actual number could be higher.

Despite the recent airstrikes in Kyiv and Lviv, Russia's firepower is focused on Mariupol and Donbas.

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