沃尔格林靴子联盟最近利用一家投资银行来探索私有化的可能性，根据报告路透报道，但分析师们不确定这种规模的交易是否可能。
金融服务公司杰弗里斯研究服务公司(Jefferies Research Services)的分析显示，这笔交易最终可能需要700亿美元以上:150亿美元现金和550多亿美元债务，以减轻当前股东的负担，前提是高管们将自己的股权投入交易。
在今天的市场上，这是一个艰难的要求，因为如此规模的贷款并不便宜。更基本的问题也给交易蒙上了阴影，即该公司是否有能力在一个充满来自拥有更廉价产品的网络巨头的压力的行业保持相关性。
据路透社报道，沃尔格林在过去12个月中损失了28%的股票价值。上周，该公司告诉投资者，由于仿制药收入下降，加上亚马逊的竞争，调整后的收益可能在2020年持平。
杰弗里斯医疗保健服务股票研究专家布莱恩·坦奎鲁特在接受采访时说，尽管努力实现多元化，沃尔格林“有点卡住了”新闻周刊。他说，在这一点上，该公司可以调整其商店战略，但没有像CVS保险部门这样的主要业务来支撑这项创新的成本。
同时，坦奎鲁特称，该制药公司股价下跌、关闭商店和暴露于阿片类药物并没有真正激发潜在投资者的信心。
“如果我是私募股权投资者，我将为此投入150亿至200亿英镑，这是一些严肃的考虑，”他说。
首席执行官斯特凡诺·佩西纳长期以来刷掉互联网巨头侵入零售药店领域——主要依靠合作来支撑沃尔格林的业务——但他的竞争对手似乎从更具破坏性的举措中获利。
在过去的一年里，CVS收购了健康保险巨头Aetna的交易规模如此之大，以至于最初令反垄断监管机构担忧。它也开始推出它的卫生服务部，进一步使其业务多样化，以应对缓慢的药房客流量。路透社周二报道，在过去的12个月里，淡水河谷的股票表现好于沃尔格林，仅下跌7%。
沃尔玛正处于诊所扩张，好市多正在测试免费邮递去年，亚马逊在一项交易中购买了药丸包，该交易发送了传统药房的股票摔跤。
沃尔格林收购了丽特援助商店，但最初想要整个公司。据路透社报道，该公司购买了AmerisourceBergen的股份，并考虑收购美国健康保险公司Humana，转而决定扩大他们在初级保健服务方面的合作伙伴关系。
其他的伙伴对于药店来说，包括微软提供更好的研究和数据，联合健康集团和麦德Express提供急救中心，联邦快递提供第二天的处方，克罗格提供店内杂货。
2019年8月7日，佛罗里达州迈阿密，一家沃尔格林商店。沃尔格林宣布计划关闭其大约9560家美国商店中的200家。
贝尔德分析师埃里克科尔德维尔向路透社证实了这些行业困境。
他在一份报告中表示:“鉴于糟糕的行业基本面、医疗供应链面临的似乎永无止境的利润压力，以及阿片类药物暴露等不可预测项目的持续不确定性，我们很难看到超出当前上涨(库存)的巨额溢价。”。
花旗银行的拉尔夫·贾科贝告诉彭博社，虽然沃尔格林有一些特征可以为潜在的私有化增色不少，“但交易的规模、企业面临的结构性压力以及多年来的成本削减和金融工程使得这一点有些难以想象。”
这些特征包括制药公司健康的现金流和为搬迁筹集资金的能力。沃尔格林可以出售其在美国资源银行30%的股份，或者使用佩西纳16%的股权来减少他们从私人股本公司、投资银行和对冲基金那里需要的数十亿美元。
HERE'S WHY ANALYSTS THINK THE WALGREENS DEAL COULD TANK
Walgreens Boots Alliance has recently tapped an investment bank to explore the possibility of going private, according to reporting by Reuters, but analysts aren't so sure a deal of this magnitude is possible.
The transaction could require north of $70 billion at the end of the day: $15 billion in cash and more than $55 billion in debt to relieve current shareholders, so long as executives roll their equity into the deal, according to analysis by Jefferies Research Services, a financial services company.
That's a tough ask in today's market, when loans of that magnitude don't come cheap. Also casting a shadow over the deal are more fundamental questions about the firm's ability to stay relevant in an industry ripe with pressures from online giants with cheaper products.
Walgreens lost 28 percent of its stock value in the past twelve months, according to Reuters. Last week, the company told investors that adjusted earnings could plateau in 2020 from lower revenue from generic drugs, plus competition from Amazon.
Despite efforts to diversify, Walgreens is "kind of stuck," analyst Brian Tanquilut, who specializes in healthcare services equity research at Jefferies, said in an interview with Newsweek. At this point, the company could pivot its store strategy, but doesn't have major businesses like CVS' insurance wing to bolster the cost of that innovation, he said.
Meanwhile, the drug firm's slumping shares, closing stores and exposure to opioid suits don't exactly inspire confidence in potential investors, according to Tanquilut.
"If I was a private equity sponsor, and I'm going to commit 15 to 20 billion in capital on this, these are some serious considerations," he said.
Chief Executive Stefano Pessina has long brushed off encroachment by internet giants into the retail pharmacy space—mostly depending on partnerships to bolster Walgreens' business—but his competitors seem to be profiting from more disruptive moves.
In the past year, CVS acquired health insurance giant Aetna in a deal so big it initially worried antitrust regulators. It also started rolling out its health services wing, further diversifying its business against sluggish pharmacy foot traffic. In the past twelve months, CVS shares performed better than Walgreens', down just 7 percent, Reuters reported Tuesday.
Walmart is on the cusp of clinic expansion, Costco is testing free delivery of prescription drugs and Amazon bought PillPack last year in a deal that sent traditional pharmacy shares tumbling.
Walgreens bought Rite Aid stores but originally wanted the whole company. It bought stake in AmerisourceBergen and considered going after U.S. health insurer Humana, settling instead for expanding their partnership for primary care services, according to Reuters.
Other partners for the drug store include Microsoft for better research and data, UnitedHealth Group and MedExpress for starting urgent care centers, FedEx for next-day prescription delivery and Kroger for in-store groceries.
A Walgreens store is seen on August 07, 2019 in Miami, Florida. Walgreens announced plans to close 200 of its approximately 9,560 American stores.
Baird analyst Eric Coldwell confirmed these industry woes to Reuters.
"Given poor industry fundamentals, seemingly never-ending margin pressures faced in the healthcare supply chain, and, let's face it, ongoing uncertainty about unpredictable items such as opioids exposure, we would struggle to see a monster premium beyond this current run-up (in the stock)," he said in a note.
Citi's Ralph Giacobbe told Bloomberg that while Walgreens has some characteristics that lend weight to a potential go-private, "the sheer size of a deal, the structural pressures the business faces, and years worth of cost reduction and financial engineering makes it somewhat difficult to envision."
Those characteristics include the drug firm's healthy cash flow and ability to raise some money for the move. Walgreens could sell its 30 percent stake in AmerisourceBergen or use Pessina's ownership stake—16 percent—to reduce the billions they need from private equity firms, investment banks and hedge funds.
