在短短几个月的时间里，俄亥俄州的参议员罗布·波特曼不再公开讨论他帮助共和党人的计划捍卫2022年参议院地图宣布他会不寻求连任而是计划在任期结束时退休。

尽管这一消息震惊了他在国会山的共和党同事，但这一声明也标志着另一个竞争活动周期。

波特曼是第三位来自关键摇摆州的共和党参议员宣布退休。宾夕法尼亚州的派特·图梅(Sens. Pat Toomey)和北卡罗来纳州的理查德·伯尔(Richard Burr)也不打算在2022年11月寻求连任，这使得共和党人很容易扩大他们在参议院的少数党优势。参议员查克·格拉斯利和罗恩·约翰逊没有公开承诺在爱荷华州和威斯康星州竞选连任，这进一步加剧了共和党对捍卫竞争席位的担忧。

“通常情况下，总统大选后的第一次中期选举对反对党是有利的，”波特曼在11月接受采访时说政治。“唐纳德·特朗普刚刚两次以8个百分点的优势赢得俄亥俄州。上次(2016年)我以13分的优势击败(特朗普)。应该是共和党人的好年景。”

约书亚·罗伯茨/通过盖蒂图像池

参议员罗布·波特曼出席参议院国土安全和政府事务确认会

尽管波特曼对竞选第三个任期的乐观情绪似乎已经恶化——他把政治的“日益两极分化”作为他周一不竞选的决定——但他早些时候对2022年的评估表明，共和党有一个有利的竞争环境。波特曼宣布后的几个小时内，俄亥俄州一些著名的共和党领导人开始回答关于他们职业意图的问题。

人们立即对前总统唐纳德·特朗普的长期国会盟友、众议员吉姆·乔丹的前景进行了猜测。他作为众议院自由核心小组的关键人物在全国范围内声名鹊起，最近被特朗普授予总统自由勋章。白宫在颁奖仪式上列举的成就之一是约旦“领导了对抗弹劾政治迫害的努力”，这位现任国会议员表示，他愿意在针对前总统的第二轮弹劾程序中再次担任这一角色。

J.斯科特·阿普尔怀特/美联社

俄亥俄州共和党众议员吉姆·乔丹(Jim Jordan)准备疏散人群，因为暴徒试图闯入C宫

波特曼宣布后，在保守媒体频道Newsmax的采访中，乔丹明确表示效忠特朗普，尽管当被问及是否会寻求2022年参议院竞选时，他表示反对。

“我的意思是我们会看到，我专注于我在司法委员会的工作，”他说，并补充说，他也专注于“尽我们所能完成这件事，并确保总统不会在美国参议院被定罪。”

如果特朗普决定参选，乔丹与特朗普的密切关系可能会成为他竞选平台的重要组成部分。

特朗普已经表示，他计划涉入2022年的竞选支持他的前任白宫新闻秘书莎拉·哈克比·桑德斯在阿肯色州州长竞选中。特朗普在全国范围内的成功背书将考验他在党内的影响力。

俄亥俄州立大学政治学荣誉退休教授保罗·贝克(Paul Beck)博士说:“看到特朗普在初选时加倍支持约旦，我不会感到惊讶，初选当然离现在还有一年多的时间。”

贝克说，尽管如果乔丹最终没有选择竞选，他会感到惊讶，但特朗普可能的支持可能不足以巩固现任国会议员作为明确领先者的地位。

“(众议员乔丹)是一个会团结民主党人和无党派人士反对他的人——一些共和党人反对他。我认为一些约翰·卡西奇人根本不会支持(约旦)，”贝克说，他指的是俄亥俄州的前州长，在2016年竞选总统之前，他作为中间派得到了共和党的支持。

比尔·克拉克/CQ·罗尔通过盖蒂影像公司

俄亥俄州共和党众议员吉姆·雷纳奇在7月4日共和党全国代表大会前的最后一次投票后走下众议院台阶

俄亥俄州选民可能会在竞选活动中看到另一张熟悉的脸，因为前众议员吉姆·雷纳奇似乎正在考虑他的政治未来。波特曼宣布后的第二天，雷纳奇发表了一份声明，概述了他探索“未来60天重新担任公职的选择”的计划。

这位前国会议员告诉美国广播公司新闻，他周一晚上与几个州的领导人举行了一次虚拟会议，并计划继续举行虚拟市政厅会议。雷纳奇说，他的目标是在可能的时候开始一些面对面的讨论。

雷纳奇最近的声明阐述了他即将在长达几个月的“探索性深入阶段”与全州选民交谈的计划。尽管这位前国会议员对竞争性竞选并不陌生，但他并没有在全州范围内获胜。2018年，雷纳奇在参议院竞选中以近7个百分点的优势输给了该州现任参议员民主党人谢罗德·布朗。

布朗在共和党倾向的地区赢得竞选的成功使他在某种程度上成为一个政治独角兽，其他民主党参议员候选人可以在2022年效仿。在战胜雷纳奇时，布朗赢得了更多的选票，并以比共和党人迈克·德温(Mike DeWine)更大的优势获胜，后者在2018年的州长竞选中以3.7个百分点的优势获胜。与此同时，特朗普在七叶树州的获胜优势在2016年和2020年均达到8.1分。

卡洛琳·布雷曼/CQ-通过盖蒂影像公司点名

众议员蒂姆·瑞恩，哦。，于2019年12月17日在国会大厦接受摄像机采访。

众议院民主党领袖、前2020年总统候选人蒂姆·瑞恩已经表示愿意迈出这一步。尽管瑞安的总统竞选从未在拥挤的候选人名单中脱颖而出，但他认为自己可以赢回那些在2016年从民主党转向特朗普的美国人。

“我被支持者压倒了，他们伸出手来鼓励我竞选参议员。我还没有做出决定，但我正在认真考虑。俄亥俄州值得为劳动人民而战的领导人，”瑞安说发微博周一，波特曼新闻发布会几小时后。

根据保罗·贝克博士的说法，如果瑞安赢得民主党提名，他将是“民主党的自然候选人”。贝克预测，除了已经有了内在的公众形象之外，即将到来的选区划分过程将使参议院的竞选对这位国会议员更有吸引力，他现在正在服刑第10个任期。

“我们将在2022年重新划分众议院选区。我的猜测是瑞安将在一个对他不太有利的地区竞选——如果他寻求连任的话。贝克说:“他目前所在的地区已经有点远离民主党了。”。

 

梅利莎·利特尔/彭博通过盖蒂图像

俄亥俄州代顿市市长南·韦利在新闻发布会上倾听，呼吁在东南部进行投票

代顿市长南·韦利也表示有兴趣竞选波特曼的席位。在一个星期一啁啾声韦利感谢支持者的“所有令人鼓舞的话”，并警告说2022年将有一个竞争性的选举周期。

“虽然我仍然在决定我接下来要做什么，但我希望你能支持我们，因为我们会尽一切努力在2022年支持民主党，”她说。

尽管拜登在11月推翻了代顿的蒙哥马利县，但七叶树民主党人在过去十年中的记录通常很糟糕。该州目前由一名共和党州长领导，共和党控制着州议会的两院。在华盛顿，俄亥俄州代表团中共和党人是民主党人的三倍。正如韦利所暗示的那样，民主党竞选现任州长迈克·杜因的竞争将在2022年进一步加大赌注。

贝克预测说:“民主党人没有很多板凳实力——他们没有任何人在全州范围内拥有清晰的知名度，这可能会在初选中占据主要优势，所以这将是共和党人最激动人心的地方。”

Ohio emerges as early 2022 Senate battleground

In the span of just few months, Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio went from openly discussing his plans to help Republicansdefend the 2022 Senate map, to announcing he wouldnot seek reelectionand instead plans to retire at the end of his term.

While the news shocked his Republican colleagues on Capitol Hill, the announcement also signaled the starting point ofanother competitive campaign cycle.

Portman is the third Republican senator from a key swing state to announce his retirement -- Sens. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Richard Burr of North Carolina also do not plan to seek reelection in November 2022, making Republicans vulnerable to widening their minority margin in the Senate. GOP concerns over defending competitive seats are further exacerbated by a lack of public commitments from Sens. Chuck Grassley and Ron Johnson to run for reelection in Iowa and Wisconsin.

"Normally the first midterm election after the presidential is good for the opposite party," Portman said in a November interview withPolitico. "Donald Trump just won Ohio by eight points twice. I beat (Trump) by 13 points last time (in 2016). Should be a good year for Republicans."

Although Portman's optimism about running for a third term seems to have soured -- he cited the "increasingly polarized" nature of politics as his decision not to run on Monday -- his earlier assessment of 2022 indicates a favorable playing field for Republicans. In the hours following Portman's announcement, some of Ohio's prominent GOP leaders began fielding questions about their professional intentions.

Speculation immediately swirled around the prospects of former President Donald Trump's longtime congressional ally, Rep. Jim Jordan. He rose to national prominence as a key voice in the House Freedom Caucus and was recently awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Trump. One of the accomplishments listed by the White House at the time of the award ceremony was Jordan having "led the effort to confront the impeachment witch hunt," a role the sitting congressman has indicated he's willing to reprise amid the second round of impeachment proceedings against the former president.

During an interview on the conservative media channel Newsmax following Portman's announcement, Jordan made his allegiance to Trump clear, although he demurred when asked if he would seek a 2022 Senate run.

"I mean we'll see, I'm focused on my work in the Judiciary Committee," he said, adding that he is also focused on "doing everything we can to get this thing over with and making sure the president is not convicted in the United States Senate."

Jordan's close ties to Trump would likely become a crucial part of his campaign platform if he decides to run.

Trump has already indicated he plans to wade into 2022 contestsby backing his formerWhite House press secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, in the Arkansas gubernatorial race. The success of Trump's endorsements on a national scale would test the longevity of his influence within the party.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see that Trump would double down on his support for Jordan when it comes to the primaries, which of course are more than a year from now," said Dr. Paul Beck, professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University.

Beck said that while he would be surprised if Jordan did not ultimately choose to run, Trump's likely endorsement may not be enough to solidify the current congressman as a definite front-runner.

"(Rep. Jordan) is somebody who would rally Democrats and independents against him -- and some Republicans against him. I think some of the John Kasich people would not at all support (Jordan)," Beck said, referring to Ohio's former governor, who enjoyed Republican support as a centrist before running for president in 2016.

Ohio voters could see another familiar face in the campaign scramble, as former Rep. Jim Renacci appears to be mulling over his political future. A day after Portman's announcement, Renacci issued a statement outlining his plans to explore his "options to reenter public office over the next 60 days."

The former congressman told ABC News that he held a virtual meeting with several state leaders Monday evening and plans to continue holding virtual town halls. Renacci said he aims to start some face-to-face discussions when that becomes possible.

Renacci's recent statement laid out his imminent plans to speak with voters across the state during a months-long "exploratory deep-dive phase." Although the former congressman is no stranger to competitive races, he hasn't been victorious statewide. In 2018, Renacci lost a Senate bid to the state's current senator, Democrat Sherrod Brown by nearly 7 points.

Brown's success in winning contests in Republican-leaning territory made him somewhat of a political unicorn that other Democratic Senate hopefuls could try to emulate in 2022. At the time of his victory against Renacci, Brown earned more votes and won by a greater margin than Republican Mike DeWine, who won the 2018 gubernatorial race by 3.7 points. Meanwhile, Trump's winning margin in the Buckeye State leveled at 8.1 points in both 2016 and 2020.

Rep. Tim Ryan, a top House Democrat and former 2020 presidential candidate, already indicated a willingness to make the leap. Although Ryan's presidential bid never took off amid the crowded field of candidates, he pitched himself as someone who could win back Americans who had pivoted away from Democrats in 2016 in favor of Trump.

"I'm overwhelmed by supporters who are reaching out to encourage me to run for Senate. I haven't made a decision yet but I'm looking seriously at it. Ohio deserves leaders who fight for working people," Ryantweetedon Monday, hours after Portman's press conference.

According to Dr. Paul Beck, Ryan would be "a natural candidate for the Democrats" if he won the party's nomination. In addition to already having a built-in public profile, Beck predicted the upcoming redistricting process would make a Senate bid more appealing for the congressman who is now serving his 10th term in office.

"We will have redistricted House districts in 2022. My guess is that Ryan will run in a district -- if he seeks reelection -- that is less favorable to him. The district he currently occupies has been sort of trending away from the Democrats," Beck said.

Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley also indicated interest in running for Portman's seat. In a Mondaytweet, Whaley thanked supporters for "all the encouraging words" and warned of a competitive election cycle in 2022.

"While I'm still deciding what I will do next, I hope you'll support us as we do everything we can do to support Democrats in 2022," she said.

Although Biden flipped Dayton's Montgomery County in November, Buckeye Democrats have generally had a rough track record over the course of the last decade. The state is currently led by a Republican governor and the GOP controls both chambers of the state house. In Washington, the Ohio delegation includes three times as many Republicans as Democrats. As implied by Whaley, the competing opening for Democrats to run a candidate against incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine would further raise the stakes in 2022.

"What the Democrats don't have is a lot of bench strength -- they don't have anybody with a clear, statewide visibility that would have probably a major edge in the primaries, and so that's what is going to be as exciting as the Republican side will be," Beck predicted.