纽约-这是美国历史上最致命的一年，预计死亡人数将首次超过300万人，这主要是由于冠状病毒大流行所致。

今年的最终死亡率数据将无法使用数月。但初步数据表明，美国今年有望死亡超过320万，比2019年至少增加40万。

美国的死亡人数多数年来都在增加，因此死亡人数预计每年都会增加。但是2020年的数字跳升了约15％，一旦算出本月的所有死亡人数，这一数字可能会更高。

这将是自1918年以来最大的单年百分比飞跃，当时有成千上万的美国士兵在第一次世界大战中丧生，成千上万的美国人死于流感大流行。与1917年相比，该年的死亡率上升了46％。

COVID-19已杀死超过318,000名美国人，而且这一数字还在增加。在此之前，我们有理由对美国的死亡趋势充满希望。

由于心脏病和癌症死亡人数的减少，该国的整体死亡率在2019年有所下降。根据疾病控制与预防中心周二发布的死亡证明数据，预期寿命连续第二年提高了几周。

但是疾病控制和预防中心的罗伯特·安德森说，2020年的预期寿命可能会下降多达整整三年。

疾病预防控制中心（CDC）去年统计了美国死亡人数2854,838，比2018年增加了近16,000。这是一个好消息：死亡人数通常每年增加约20,000至50,000，这主要是由于该国的老龄化和人口的增长。

疾病预防控制中心报告说，确实，按年龄调整的死亡率在2019年下降了约1％，预期寿命上升了约六周，达到78.8岁。

疾病预防控制中心死亡统计负责人安德森说：“实际上，这是死亡率相当不错的一年。”

该病毒是去年在中国首次发现的，今年首次报告了美国的病例。但是它已经成为仅次于心脏病和癌症的第三大死亡原因。在今年的某些时期，COVID-19排名第一。

但是其他一些死亡类型也有所增加。

今年早些时候爆发的肺炎病例可能是COVID-19死亡，这在流行病的早期并没有被人意识到。但安德森说，某些类型的心脏病和循环系统疾病，糖尿病和痴呆症也导致了意外死亡。

其中许多也可能与COVID有关。他说，这种病毒可能削弱了已经在这些疾病中挣扎的患者，或者可能削弱了他们所获得的护理。

在流行初期，有人乐观地认为，随着人们停止通勤或开车去参加社交活动，车祸死亡人数将减少。目前尚无相关数据，但传闻显示，这种下降并没有。

安德森等人说，2019年的自杀死亡人数与2018年相比有所下降，但早期信息表明今年死亡人数没有继续下降。

同时，药物过量死亡的情况更加严重。

在冠状病毒尚未到达之前，美国就处于其历史上最致命的药物过量流行之中。

尚未提供2020年全年的数据。但上周疾病预防控制中心报告称，在截至5月的12个月中，有超过81,000例药物过量死亡，这是一年来有记录以来的最高数字。

专家认为，大流行对个人治疗和康复服务的破坏可能是一个因素。人们也更有可能单独服用毒品，而没有朋友或家人可以打电话给911或服用过量药物的好处。

但也许更大的因素是药物本身：COVID-19引起了经销商的供应问题，因此，专家们越来越将廉价而致命的芬太尼混入海洛因，可卡因和甲基苯丙胺中。

“我不怀疑有很多新人因为COVID而突然开始使用毒品。锡拉丘兹大学（Syracuse University）研究药物过量趋势的研究人员香农·莫纳特（Shannon Monnat）说，如果有的话，我认为已经在使用毒品的人的供应受到了更多的污染。
 

US deaths in 2020 top 3 million, by far most ever counted

NEW YORK -- This is the deadliest year in U.S. history, with deaths expected to top 3 million for the first time — due mainly to the coronavirus pandemic.

Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.

U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.

That would mark the largest single-year percentage leap since 1918, when tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers died in World War I and hundreds of thousands of Americans died in a flu pandemic. Deaths rose 46% that year, compared with 1917.

COVID-19 has killed more than 318,000 Americans and counting. Before it came along, there was reason to be hopeful about U.S. death trends.

The nation's overall mortality rate fell a bit in 2019, due to reductions in heart disease and cancer deaths. And life expectancy inched up — by several weeks — for the second straight year, according to death certificate data released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But life expectancy for 2020 could end up dropping as much as three full years, said Robert Anderson of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC counted 2,854,838 U.S. deaths last year, or nearly 16,000 more than 2018. That's fairly good news: Deaths usually rise by about 20,000 to 50,000 each year, mainly due to the nation's aging, and growing, population.

Indeed, the age-adjusted death rate dropped about 1% in 2019, and life expectancy rose by about six weeks to 78.8 years, the CDC reported.

“It was actually a pretty good year for mortality, as things go,” said Anderson, who oversees CDC death statistics.

The U.S. coronavirus epidemic has been a big driver of deaths this year, both directly and indirectly.

The virus was first identified in China last year, and the first U.S. cases were reported this year. But it has become the third leading cause of death, behind only heart disease and cancer. For certain periods this year, COVID-19 was the No. 1 killer.

But some other types of deaths also have increased.

A burst of pneumonia cases early this year may have been COVID-19 deaths that simply weren't recognized as such early in the epidemic. But there also have been an unexpected number of deaths from certain types of heart and circulatory diseases, diabetes and dementia, Anderson said.

Many of those, too, may be related to COVID. The virus could have weakened patients already struggling with those conditions, or could have diminished the care they were getting, he said.

Early in the epidemic, some were optimistic that car crash deaths would drop as people stopped commuting or driving to social events. Data on that is not yet in, but anecdotal reports suggest there was no such decline.

Suicide deaths dropped in 2019 compared with 2018, but early information suggests they have not continued to drop this year, Anderson and others said.

Drug overdose deaths, meanwhile, got much worse.

Before the coronavirus even arrived, the U.S. was in the midst of the deadliest drug overdose epidemic in its history.

Data for all of 2020 is not yet available. But last week the CDC reported more than 81,000 drug overdose deaths in the 12 months ending in May, making it the highest number ever recorded in a one-year period.

Experts think the pandemic's disruption to in-person treatment and recovery services may have been a factor. People also are more likely to be taking drugs alone — without the benefit of a friend or family member who can call 911 or administer overdose-reversing medication.

But perhaps a bigger factor are the drugs themselves: COVID-19 caused supply problems for dealers, so they are increasingly mixing cheap and deadly fentanyl into heroin, cocaine and methamphetamine, experts said.

“I don't suspect there are a bunch of new people who suddenly started using drugs because of COVID. If anything, I think the supply of people who are already using drugs is more contaminated,” said Shannon Monnat, a Syracuse University researcher who studies drug overdose trends.