华盛顿——美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策制定者本周开会时面临一个不寻常的难题:短期经济前景正在恶化，而由于冠状病毒疫苗的出现，长期前景正在好转。
周三会议结束时，美联储可能会宣布采取措施，试图抵消这一流行病对经济增长日益增长的拖累。或者它可以选择暂时观望。
央行的政策会议恰逢冠状病毒创纪录的死灰复燃，冠状病毒导致商业限制增加，使更多美国人不愿购物、旅行和外出就餐。一些分析师表示，随着疫苗对抗病毒，经济可能在2021年初萎缩，然后才会复苏。
对于美联储本周是否会宣布任何新举措，经济学家们意见不一。政策制定者可以采取的一个选择是宣布美联储购买债券的转变。美联储每月购买800亿美元的国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款债券，以保持借贷利率下降。
这种转变的想法是购买更多长期债券，减少短期证券，以压低长期利率。美联储已经将基准短期利率下调至接近零的创纪录低点。
然而，美联储的工具需要时间来支持经济，鉴于短期的悲观和长期的乐观，这增加了一层复杂性。
野村证券(Nomura Securities)美国首席经济学家刘易斯·亚历山大(Lewis Alexander)在一份研究报告中表示:“如果未来3至6个月的经济前景依然强劲，短期下行风险可能不足以成为“提供更多刺激”的理由。”
另一个复杂的因素是，即使谈判继续进行，国会仍未就另一轮急需的财政援助达成一致，以帮助数百万失业的美国人、数千家苦苦挣扎的企业以及现金短缺的州和城市。
包括杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席在内的许多美联储政策制定者一再敦促国会提供更多支持。国会山上的大多数提议包括延长失业救济计划，这些计划将在大约两周内到期。到那时，大约900万失业人员将失去他们所有的失业援助，无论是州政府还是联邦政府。
“他们都在寻求财政刺激，”俄勒冈大学经济学教授、《美联储观察》博客作者蒂姆·杜伊(Tim Duy)在提到国会可能的救助时表示。
最近的数据表明经济正在恶化。越来越多的美国人寻求失业救济，这表明裁员人数可能会增加，11月份整体招聘速度放缓至4月份以来的最低水平。信用卡和借记卡数据显示，假日消费比去年疲软。
尽管如此，美联储官员可能还没有准备好采取新的措施，可能认为他们已经通过超低利率为经济提供了几乎所有力所能及的帮助。
根据三周后公布的会议纪要，在11月的会议上，美联储政策制定者讨论了购买更多长期债券的想法以及其他选择。这样做可能会进一步降低10年期美国国债的收益率，这将影响抵押贷款和信用卡利率等其他借贷成本。
相比之下，购买两年期美国国债对最常见的贷款利率影响较小，尽管它可以帮助美国国债市场更平稳地运行，这是美联储今年债券购买计划的最初目标。
尽管美联储官员担心这场流行病将在今年冬天严重损害经济，但并不是所有人都赞成更多的刺激措施。
“我们预计明年会有非常强劲的增长，”达拉斯联邦储备银行行长罗伯特·卡普兰本月告诉CNBC。“但我认为接下来的3到6个月将充满挑战。在我们看来，增长正在减速，如果这种复苏继续朝着错误的方向发展，那么减速和减速可能会变得更糟。”
但美联储决策委员会的投票成员卡普兰(Kaplan)表示，“目前我不想”改变债券购买计划。
他补充说:“我不知道增加我们债券购买的规模或延长到期日是否有助于解决我在未来三到六个月内担心的这种情况。”
“一如既往，”卡普兰说，“我会以开放的心态参加会议。”
其他美联储银行行长，包括芝加哥联邦储备银行的查尔斯·埃文斯和旧金山联邦储备银行的玛丽·戴利，也在最近几周表示，目前可能没有必要改变债券购买计划。埃文斯和戴利都没有对美联储政策委员会进行投票，但他们将参加本周的会议。
即使美联储本周没有宣布政策转变，它也可能会就其债券购买提供额外的指导。在11月的会议后，它表示将“在未来几个月”继续购买债券那次会议的纪要称，大多数政策制定者希望“尽快”提供更具体的指导。分析人士认为，这可能意味着本周的会议。
预计美联储不会将其债券购买与任何具体的通胀或失业水平挂钩，而是提出一个更普遍的目标。亚历山大说，这可以简单地说，债券购买将继续“直到复苏进展良好”。
11月会议的纪要还显示，政策制定者预计在开始加息之前，将开始放缓债券购买。经济学家预计，美联储最迟要到2024年或2025年才会加息。周三，美联储将发布到2023年的预测，预计不会加息。
Fed to weigh further options for aiding US economy in peril
WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve's policymakers face an unusual conundrum as they meet this week: A short-term economic outlook that is worsening even while the longer-term picture is brightening thanks to the emergence of coronavirus vaccines.
When its meeting concludes Wednesday, the Fed could announce steps to try to offset the pandemic's increasing drag on growth. Or it could choose to mostly watch and wait, for now.
The central bank's policy meeting coincides with a record-shattering resurgence of the coronavirus, which has caused an increase in business restrictions and made more Americans reluctant to shop, travel and dine out. Some analysts say the economy could shrink in early 2021 before recovering as vaccines combat the virus.
Economists are divided on whether the Fed will announce any new actions this week. One option the policymakers could take would be to announce a shift in the Fed's bond purchases. The Fed has been buying $80 billion in Treasury bonds and $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month in an effort to keep borrowing rates down.
The idea of a shift would be to buy more longer-term bonds and fewer shorter-term securities, to hold down longer-term interest rates. The Fed has already cut its benchmark short-term rate to a record low near zero.
Yet the Fed's tools take time to support the economy, which adds a layer of complexity given the short-term gloom and longer-term optimism.
“Near-term downside risk may not be enough of a reason" to provide more stimulus "if the outlook for the economy in three to six months remains strong,” Lewis Alexander, U.S. chief economist at Nomura Securities, said in a research note.
Another complicating factor is that even as negotiations continue, Congress has yet to agree on another round of urgently needed financial aid for millions of unemployed Americans, thousands of struggling businesses and cash-short states and cities.
Many Fed policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, have repeatedly urged Congress to provide more support. Most proposals on Capitol Hill include extending unemployment benefit programs that are scheduled to expire in about two weeks. At that point, roughly 9 million jobless people will lose all their unemployment aid, state or federal.
“They're all looking to fiscal stimulus,” Tim Duy, an economics professor at the University of Oregon and author of the “Fed Watch” blog, referring to potential rescue aid from Congress.
Recent data is pointing to an economy that is getting worse. More Americans are seeking unemployment benefits, a sign that layoffs are likely rising, and overall hiring slowed in November to its slowest pace since April. Credit and debit card data suggests that holiday spending is weaker than it was last year.
Still, Fed officials may not yet be ready to take new steps, perhaps believing they have already provided nearly all the help they can for the economy through ultra-low rates.
At their meeting in November, Fed policymakers discussed the idea of buying more longer-term bonds, among other options, according to minutes published three weeks later. Doing so could further reduce the yield on 10-year Treasurys, which influence other borrowing costs, such as mortgage and credit card rates.
By contrast, the purchase of, say, two-year Treasurys has less effect on the most common loan rates, though it can help the Treasury market function more smoothly, which was the original goal of the Fed's bond-buying program this year.
While Fed officials worry that the pandemic will severely harm the economy this winter, not all are sold on more stimulus.
“We expect very strong growth next year," Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, told CNBC this month. "But I think the next three to six months are going to be challenging. And it appears to us that growth is decelerating, and if this resurgence keeps heading the wrong way, which it is, that slowing and deceleration could get worse.”
But Kaplan, a voting member of the Fed's policymaking committee, said, “I would not want” to alter the bond-buying program “at this point.”
He added: “I don’t know that increasing the size or extending maturities of our bond purchases would help address this situation that I’m concerned about over the next three to six months."
“As always,” though, Kaplan said, "I will go into the meeting with an open mind.”
Other Fed bank presidents, including Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed and Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed, have also suggested in recent weeks that a change to the bond-buying program at this point might not be necessary. Neither Evans nor Daly has a vote on the Fed's policy committee, but they will participate in this week's meeting.
Even if it doesn't announce a policy shift this week, the Fed will likely provide additional guidance about its bond purchases. After its November meeting, it said it would keep buying bonds “over coming months." The minutes from that meeting said that most policymakers wanted to provide more specific guidance “fairly soon.” Analysts have interpreted that to likely mean this week's meeting.
The Fed isn't expected to tie its bond purchases to any specific level of inflation or unemployment but instead suggest a more general goal. Alexander said it could be as simple as stating that bond purchases will continue “until the recovery is well-advanced.”
The minutes of the November meeting also showed that the policymakers expect to start slowing their bond purchases before they begin raising interest rates. And economists foresee no Fed rate hikes until as late as 2024 or 2025. On Wednesday, the Fed will issue forecasts through 2023 that are expected to show no rate hikes at all.
