米兰——意大利前总理马泰奥·伦齐正在通过引发一场政治危机来考验他已经很低的支持率，这场政治危机可能会在冠状病毒大流行的关键时刻推翻意大利联合政府。
伦齐策划了他的小而关键的意大利万岁党的两名部长的辞职。本周，当总理朱塞佩·孔戴在议会两院发表讲话时，他的权力游戏的结果将变得更加清晰。如果孔蒂成功争取支持，他可能会继续掌权，这可能是他自2018年以来第三次领导联合政府选举。
伦齐的权力游戏
这不是伦齐第一次尝试打破传统，改变意大利政治。他在2014年成为意大利总理，通过巧妙的手段，毫不客气地解除了当时的民主党成员恩里克·莱塔的意大利领导人职务。近三年后，伦齐本人在一次失败的宪法公投中赌上自己的声望后下台。
现在，这位46岁的前佛罗伦萨市长可能会扳倒孔戴。他广泛指责总理没有正确管理冠状病毒危机。伦齐说，他只是遵循自己的良心，付出了巨大的政治代价。
“意大利万岁并没有引发危机。“这已经持续了几个月，”他在上周的新闻发布会上断言。
意大利万岁党(Italia Viva party)的参议员伦齐(Renzi)在早些时候支持孔戴，但孔戴第一届政府中的右翼联盟党(League party)领导人马特奥·萨尔维尼(Matteo Salvini)的夺权失败。
新的民调显示，青年联盟伙伴意大利万岁(Italia Viva)仅获得2.4%的受访者支持，低于该党成立时6.2%的高点。意大利万岁成立于2019年9月，当时伦齐退出了他曾经竞选的民主党。他带来了两名内阁成员，给了自己上周所用的那种影响力。
孔戴的下一步行动
随着意大利万岁部长的辞职，孔戴正在努力争取独立议员在议会中的支持。他仍然有民主党和五星运动的支持，他们批评仁子的举动是不负责任的。
孔戴将于周一在下议院陈述自己的观点，并于周二向参议院陈述。每次出场后都会进行声音投票，相当于信任投票。
如果他不能获得足够的支持，孔戴可能会向意大利总统塞尔吉奥·马塔雷拉递交辞呈。在这种情况下，可以建立一个技术型政府。分析师认为，早期选举是最不可能的结果，因为在大流行期间很难举行政治竞选和选举。也有人担心右翼反对派会获得力量，并可能领导新政府。目前的多数派希望至少坚持到2022年1月，届时必须选出新总统。
通过在两院拼凑足够的支持，孔戴可能会幸存下来，领导他的第三届政府。意大利万岁仍有可能恢复其支持。
利害攸关的是什么
意大利预计将有2220亿欧元(2680亿美元)的欧盟经济复苏基金需要管理，这笔资金对该国的现代化及其疲软的经济至关重要。
尽管孔戴在2020年上半年意大利与冠状病毒的毁灭性较量中获得了广泛支持，但在更致命的秋季复苏中，他的人气出现了裂缝。政府分级限制系统实施四个月以来，每日新增确诊感染病例居高不下，意大利81800人的大流行死亡人数在欧洲仅次于英国，位居第二。
Conte的政府也因在大流行期间没有保持高中开放而受到抨击，这一决定主要与考虑到社交距离的交通不足有关。有人担心意大利没有足够的医务人员来开展该国的疫苗接种运动。
但危机最终是由孔戴提出的一项计划引发的，该计划将让他自己负责管理欧盟复苏基金。政治分析师沃尔夫冈·皮考利(Wolfgang Piccoli)称之为“最终的错误”，让伦齐重新确立了自己的“突出地位”。"
意大利人对政治内讧几乎没有耐心，因为国家的首要任务是控制冠状病毒大流行，并推出疫苗，许多人希望这将结束国家长期的冠状病毒噩梦。在一项新的民意调查中，42%的意大利人表示，他们不明白是什么引发了最新的政府分歧。
EXPLAINER: Italy faces a political crisis amid a pandemic
MILAN -- Former Italian Premier Matteo Renzi is testing his already low popularity by provoking a political crisis that could bring down Italy's coalition government at a critical juncture in the coronavirus pandemic.
Renzi orchestrated the resignations of two ministers from his tiny but key Italia Viva party. The outcome of his power play will become clearer this week, when Premier Giuseppe Conte addresses both houses of Parliament. If Conte makes a successful bid for support, he could remain in power, possibly heading would be his third coalition government since Italy's 2018election.
RENZI’S POWER PLAY
This is not Renzi’s first foray as an iconoclast shaking up Italian politics. He became premier in 2014 by out-maneuvering and unceremoniously deposing then-fellow Democratic Party member Enrico Letta as Italy's leader. Renzi himself fell from power nearly three years later after gambling his popularity on a constitutional referendum that failed.
Now, the 46-year-old former Florence mayor might bring down Conte. He broadly accuses the premier of not properly managing the coronavirus crisis. Renzi says he is only following his conscience, at great political cost.
“Italia Viva did not start the crisis. It has been going on for months,’’ he asserted during a press conference last week.
Renzi, a senator for the Italia Viva party, supported Conte during an earlier, failed power grab by Matteo Salvini, the leader of the right-wing League party that was part of Conte's first government.
New polls show junior coalition partner Italia Viva has the support of just 2.4% of survey respondents, down from a high of 6.2% at the party’s inception. Italia Viva was created in September 2019 when Renzi bolted the Democratic Party he once ran. He brought with him two Cabinet members, giving himself the kind of leverage he employed last week.
CONTE’S NEXT MOVE
With the resignation of the Italia Viva ministers, Conte is working to shore up support in parliament among independent lawmakers. He still has the backing of the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement, which have criticized Renzi’s move as irresponsible.
Conte will make his case in the lower house on Monday and to the Senate on Tuesday. A voice vote will take place after each appearance, tantamount to a vote of confidence.
If he fails to secure enough backing, Conte would likely submit his resignation to Italian President Sergio Mattarella. In that case, a technical government could be put in place. Analysts believe an earlyelectionis the least likely outcome, due to the difficulty of holding a political campaign and election during the pandemic. There are also concerns that the right-wing opposition would gain strength, and possible lead a new government. The current majority would like to hold on at least until January 2022, when a new president must be chosen.
Conte may survive to lead what would be his third government by cobbling together enough support in both houses. And it is still possible that Italia Viva will restore its backing.
WHAT'S AT STAKE
Italy expects to have 222 billion euros ($268 billion) in European Union economic recovery funds to manage, money that is crucial to modernizing the country and its limping economy.
While Conte had wide support during Italy's devastating go-round with the coronavirus in the first half of 2020, cracks in his popularity have appeared during the even more deadly fall resurgence. Four months into the government's system of tiered restrictions, new confirmed daily infections remain stubbornly high, and Italy's pandemic death toll of 81,800 is the second-highest in Europe after Britain.
Conte's government also is under fire for not keeping high schools open during the pandemic, a decision mostly tied to inadequate transportation to allow for social distancing. And there are concerns that Italy does not have enough medical personnel to carry out the country's vaccination campaign.
But the crisis was ultimately spurred when Conte presented a plan that would have put himself in charge of managing the EU recovery funds. Political analyst Wolfgang Piccoli called it “the ultimate mistake,’’ setting up Renzi’s move to reassert his own “prominence.”
Italians are showing little patience for the political infighting when the nation’s priority is getting the coronavirus pandemic under control and rolling out the vaccines that many hope will end the nation's long coronavirus nightmare. In a new poll, 42% of Italians said they didn't understand what provoked the latest government divisions.
